When will the UK rejoin the EU?

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

25 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Continued wishful thinking. CU and SM membership won't  happen in any conceivable time frame.

Actually I think this above is the 'wishful' thinking.

There will be a greater and greater step by step re-engagement with the EU. Likely an EFTA type arrangement to start. You Brexiteers have pretty much blown your hand.

Anyway - you'll be delighted to know that the £ is < $1.20 now. Just selling some USD. Yummy.

[sonyc 5,526]

55 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Continued wishful thinking. CU and SM membership won't  happen in any conceivable time frame.

Isn't this what you wanted and voted for Ricardo? All the talk throughout the voting period was about Brexit making a clean break. And isn't the debate happening right now about the problems Brexit is causing? Even some Tory MPs? There are daily stories in the mainstream press (even those right of centre). There were after all 16 million people who did have an opinion too. Why is there "no conceivable time frame"? Isn't this view about rubbing it in? The remain argument lost. But why is any closer relationship not a subject for discussion?

Labour would be picked off by the Tories if they talked about rejoining Europe at the moment (I'm not a natural Labour supporter by the way) hence Starmer's caution. Yet, that is his electoral strategy. It doesn't mean it is somehow overly idealistic to believe the subject is not being given serious analysis, as part of a longer term plan. On R4 today there are reports that there is clearly a change in national opinion. The majority which feels Brexit was a major mistake is growing weekly. Why should that national opinion not matter to politicians? 

 

 

 

Edited July 5, 2022 by sonyc

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

16 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Isn't this what you wanted and voted for Ricardo? All the talk throughout the voting period was about Brexit making a clean break. And isn't the debate happening right now about the problems Brexit is causing? Even some Tory MPs? There are daily stories in the mainstream press (even those right of centre). There were after all 16 million people who did have an opinion too. Why is there "no conceivable time frame"? Isn't this view about rubbing it in? The remain argument lost. But why is any closer relationship not a subject for discussion? Labour would be picked off by the Tories if they talked about rejoining Europe at the moment (I'm not a natural Labour supporter by the way) hence Starmer's caution. Yet, that is his electoral strategy. It doesn't mean it is somehow overly idealistic to believe the subject is being given serious analysis, as part of a longer term plan. On R4 today there are reports that there is clearly a change in national opinion. The majority which feels Brexit was a major mistake is growing weekly. Why should that national opinion not matter to politicians? 

Not only this but there are daily news items on the lack of labour on farms - crops being ploughed back in etc. Then we have the huge shortage of staff in the care sector (which no doubt many Brexiteers will gain first hand experience of in a few years).

Simply this worst of all worlds Brexit is being found out. A far more sensible softer Brexit was required and could of worked. That's what we'll work towards however its politically sold.

Give it at most ten years (same as the  English commonwealth) for us to mend most of the fences. The joke for me is that I suspect the eventual legacy of Brexit may ultimately be the dropping of the pound for the Euro as the final price to get back fully in with seat at the table. Rum job Brexit. 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Actually I think this above is the 'wishful' thinking.

There will be a greater and greater step by step re-engagement with the EU. Likely an EFTA type arrangement to start. You Brexiteers have pretty much blown your hand.

Anyway - you'll be delighted to know that the £ is < $1.20 now. Just selling some USD. Yummy.

Now falling through $1.19. 

[ricardo 7,395]

Just now, Yellow Fever said:

Now falling through $1.19. 

You looked at the euro v the dollar lately.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

Just now, ricardo said:

You looked at the euro v the dollar lately.

 

Yes - here's the pound vs Euro over the last few months -

 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/05/eu-scraps-115-grants-uk-scientists-academics-brexit-row

Just have to roll with the self inflicted punches.

[ricardo 7,395]

Try the five year view.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=5Y

 

 

[Herman 9,780]

29 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Try the five year view.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=5Y

 

 

Try the 10 year one too. 😉

What happened here?

Edited July 5, 2022 by Herman

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Try the five year view.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=5Y

 

 

You can find and make up all and any reasons why the USD, EURO, GBP move around - clearly the German, Italian economies are more exposed to Russian gas than us. Despite that the GBP slides. It a vote of no-confidence by the markets. 

[1902 1,167]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

You can find and make up all and any reasons why the USD, EURO, GBP move around - clearly the German, Italian economies are more exposed to Russian gas than us. Despite that the GBP slides. It a vote of no-confidence by the markets. 

The Italians have done a fairly good job at replacing their supply with Libyan gas. I believe their storage is filling up relatively quickly.

Its the Germans who are really up the creek, supply is restricted, so storage isn't filling up nearly fast enough. Given how exposed their industry is to gas supply, that's potentially a disaster for them. German foreign and energy policy has been a mess for ages, but the closure of their nuclear network in particular looks incredibly short sighted. 

[ricardo 7,395]

4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

You can find and make up all and any reasons why the USD, EURO, GBP move around - clearly the German, Italian economies are more exposed to Russian gas than us. Despite that the GBP slides. It a vote of no-confidence by the markets. 

Its a flight to safety and that means a flight to the dollar. As the ar$e falls out of the German economy it inevitably weakens the Euro which looks very likely to fall through parity in the near future.

The pound remains comfortably in its 5yr average range with the euro so weakness v the dollar is nothing to do with Brexit.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

2 minutes ago, 1902 said:

The Italians have done a fairly good job at replacing their supply with Libyan gas. I believe their storage is filling up relatively quickly.

Its the Germans who are really up the creek, supply is restricted, so storage isn't filling up nearly fast enough. Given how exposed their industry is to gas supply, that's potentially a disaster for them. German foreign and energy policy has been a mess for ages, but the closure of their nuclear network in particular looks incredibly short sighted. 

Don't disagree - but the riposte to Ricardo is despite all the obvious issues europe and the euro economies have with gas we seem to be doing worse! wonder why ? The USD is of course safe haven and all the data came out today. 

[1902 1,167]

15 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its a flight to safety and that means a flight to the dollar. As the ar$e falls out of the German economy it inevitably weakens the Euro which looks very likely to fall through parity in the near future.

The pound remains comfortably in its 5yr average range with the euro so weakness v the dollar is nothing to do with Brexit.

Not so sure you can argue that case, theres a flight to safety for sure and that's why the dollar is strengthening against the Euro and sterling.

However, there's also no movement real towards Sterling from the Euro, which means that investors think there's fundamental structural issues creating headwinds for the UK economy as well, one of which is arguably Brexit.

We are less exposed to the Energy crisis than the Euro-zone, so we should be seeing a strengthening of sterling against the Euro and a smaller drop against the dollar. 

In addition, the ECB has not risen rates at the same pace as the BoE. Again, that should be encouraging a stronger pound.

Edited July 5, 2022 by 1902

[ricardo 7,395]

1 minute ago, 1902 said:

 and a smaller drop against the dollar. 

Which is what we are seeing.

[1902 1,167]

Just now, ricardo said:

Which is what we are seeing.

Yes, sorry, just double checked it and you are correct. 

As I added to my previous point though, the BoE has also been faster out the blocks on rate rises than the ECB. 

[ricardo 7,395]

5 minutes ago, 1902 said:

Yes, sorry, just double checked it and you are correct. 

As I added to my previous point though, the BoE has also been faster out the blocks on rate rises than the ECB. 

Since it is Germany that carries the weight of the Euro and Germany that will suffer more than most thanks to their manufacturing economy relying on cheap gas, it isn't difficult to see which way the Euro is headed.

In a nut shell this is, and always has been the Euro's problem with one rate not suiting all parties. Bring on the ECB.

Edited July 5, 2022 by ricardo

[1902 1,167]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Since it is Germany that carries the weight of the Euro and Germany that will suffer more than most thanks to their manufacturing economy relying on cheap gas, it isn't difficult to see which way the Euro is headed.

In a nut shell this is, and always has been the Euro's problem with one rate not suiting all parties.

True, I'm pretty pro EU, my support for the Euro has always been relatively limited however.

Without some kind of unified fiscal policy, having a uniform monetary policy has always been potentially a problem.

[ricardo 7,395]

This is why having soveriegn control over your own currency matters and why in my opinion Brexit, despite the difficulties, was the only solution.

I know I'm in a minority on that score but I think this will eventually be the fundamental failure for the Euro. The only surprise is that they have been able to fudge it for this length of time.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,551]

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

Continued wishful thinking. CU and SM membership won't  happen in any conceivable time frame.

I'd go further than that and say it will never happen. The framework we're signing up to in CPTPP is not compatible with single market membership. 

This is how I think things will play out.

1)We'll finally complete CPTPP accession in late 2022/early 2023 (I believe that other CPTPP members are as keen to have this finalised before another general election as the Conservative party is). 

2)Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the UK will go on a charm offensive to encourage other Commonwealth countries to aim for accession to CPTPP with the approval of other CPTPP members.

3)From here, there will be a platform for bilateral agreement between the CPTPP and the EU, which is already recognised as something that will likely be highly mutually beneficial. 

This is an interesting article on the very subject. 

https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/can-the-eu-save-the-cptpp

[littleyellowbirdie 2,551]

12 hours ago, Herman said:

It's not the EU then is it. It's the Germans, a sovereign state, that is causing the problem. You brexiters always forget that individual states have their own agendas and ways of working. 

It's worse than that: it's Germany exerting excessive leverage on the EU to take a softer line on Russia. Fun fact by the way: it's not just Hungary asserting supremacy over EU law, Germany is also doing it, although the EU is curiously dragging its heels regarding asserting its authority on that score. But then, everybody glossed over Germany breaking accession rules for the Eurozone as well. Funny that. So much for the good ole' 'by the book' EU. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-germany-ecb-idUSKBN2FB1AH

Fact check by the way: while a lifelong constructive Eurosceptic, I was a remain voter and two-times lib dem voter (and online campaigner) in the efforts to revoke article 50. I've made my peace with the fact we've left the EU and the only way we would reenter the EU would involve the EU singularly shafting us to prove a point, so as Keir Starmer says, there's no case to rejoin the EU and we need to make Brexit work. 

You ultra-remainers/rejoiners should listen more to Keir Starmer instead of trying to read into everything what you want to hear. 

Edited July 5, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,780]

Once Johnson has gone the mood may change. People will start to realise that everything about him and it was complete bollox.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,551]

3 minutes ago, Herman said:

Once Johnson has gone the mood may change. People will start to realise that everything about him and it was complete bollox.

Once Johnson goes, relations with the EU will doubtless improve, but from the EU's perspective it's in its own best interests for the UK to fail, be seen to fail, and for the EU to be seen to be able to dominate, coerce, and ultimately humiliate the UK for having the audacity to leave, regardless of who's in government going forward. 

Edited July 5, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,780]

7 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Once Johnson goes, relations with the EU will doubtless improve, but from the EU's perspective it's in its own best interests for the UK to fail, be seen to fail, and for the EU to be seen to be able to dominate, coerce, and ultimately humiliate the UK for having the audacity to leave, regardless of who's in government going forward. 

Well they haven't had to do too much to prove that leaving has been a failure.

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

40 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

I'd go further than that and say it will never happen. The framework we're signing up to in CPTPP is not compatible with single market membership. 

This is how I think things will play out.

1)We'll finally complete CPTPP accession in late 2022/early 2023 (I believe that other CPTPP members are as keen to have this finalised before another general election as the Conservative party is). 

2)Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the UK will go on a charm offensive to encourage other Commonwealth countries to aim for accession to CPTPP with the approval of other CPTPP members.

3)From here, there will be a platform for bilateral agreement between the CPTPP and the EU, which is already recognised as something that will likely be highly mutually beneficial. 

This is an interesting article on the very subject. 

https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/can-the-eu-save-the-cptpp

Agree with your scenario as a very likely way forward, and if it does I would then add a fourth point for the longer term.

4) EU members see they can have almost the same economic benefits from CPTPP membership without sacrificing sovereignty and so follow the UK out of the EU and into full CPTPP membership. Probably in a 5-10 year timeframe. We will end up with something that looks remarkably like the Common Market in Europe.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

4 minutes ago, Herman said:

Well they haven't had to do too much to prove that leaving has been a failure.

Quite, and they didn't have to do any coercing or dominating to get Johnson to ask for and accept an even worse deal than the one Theresa May had asked for. Both May and Johnson were offered much better deals and rejected them out of combination of stupidity and a determination to keep the Tory party together at the expense of doing their best for the country.

The UK's humiliation over Brexit has been entirely self-inflicted - a combined effort from the three worst Prime Ministers (and Governments) this country has ever had.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,551]

Just now, Rock The Boat said:

Agree with your scenario as a very likely way forward, and if it does I would then add a fourth point for the longer term.

4) EU members see they can have almost the same economic benefits from CPTPP membership without sacrificing sovereignty and so follow the UK out of the EU and into full CPTPP membership. Probably in a 5-10 year timeframe. We will end up with something that looks remarkably like the Common Market in Europe.

Maybe for those who aren't in the Eurozone, but I don't see any easy way for those in the Eurozone to extricate themselves. Mind you, I was interested that Macron broached the idea of a looser European forum recently. 

 

1 minute ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Quite, and they didn't have to do any coercing or dominating to get Johnson to ask for and accept an even worse deal than the one Theresa May had asked for. Both May and Johnson were offered much better deals and rejected them out of combination of stupidity and a determination to keep the Tory party together at the expense of doing their best for the country.

The UK's humiliation over Brexit has been entirely self-inflicted - a combined effort from the three worst Prime Ministers (and Governments) this country has ever had.

We haven't been particularly humiliated yet. We were supposed to be little isolated Britain, post-Brexit, but instead, we're months away from joining another trade group and putting the EU to shame regarding support for Ukraine against Russia. 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

1 minute ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Maybe for those who aren't in the Eurozone, but I don't see any easy way for those in the Eurozone to extricate themselves. Mind you, I was interested that Macron broached the idea of a looser European forum recently. 

 

We haven't been particularly humiliated yet. We were supposed to be little isolated Britain, post-Brexit, but instead, we're months away from joining another trade group and putting the EU to shame regarding support for Ukraine against Russia. 

Your devotion to the CPTPP is quite remarkable and highly amusing 😂

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,551]

12 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Your devotion to the CPTPP is quite remarkable and highly amusing 😂

 

I wouldn't say devoted as such, but it is where we're heading, and we will be members within a year, for better or worse; I find everyone else's disinterest in it quite remarkable and highly bemusing. 😉

[PurpleCanary 5,562]

8 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I really hope you are right, and you may well be.

But I'm afraid that whilst I regard Starmer as very bright and essentially a decent bloke, I still also find him massively unconvincing as a leader and I also wonder how prevalent that impression is within the Labour Party.

Although I'm not a Labour supporter (or voter unless he changes his stance on a progressive alliance)  I do hope he becomes the next PM, but only because the alternative is so much worse 😄

CM, Starmer's problem is not just that if he talks about rejoining the EU he will in effect be telling the 17m-plus who voted Leave that they are idiots.

All surveys showed that the vast majority (at least 90 per cent) who voted Leave did so on the interlinked issues of sovereignty and immigration. BoJo's ultra-hard Brexit is of course a self-harming disaster that has made the UK a laughing-stock, but the sad fact is that it is a logical result of what motivated those 17m-plus Leavers.

Whether they realised it or not their vote for control of borders meant the UK had to leave the single market and their vote for sovereignty (arguably a mirage but that's not the point here) meant a customs' union was also out of the question.

So any attempt by Starmer to stop short of rejoining but attempting to move towards that by way of even the customs' union is also telling those Leave voters they are idiots.