When will the UK rejoin the EU?

[Herman 9,717]

26 minutes ago, Indy said:

 

Indeed, I’ve recently been to Spain and looking to sell my rental property in the near future and purchase a second Spanish home, near Valencia. If things carry on as they are I really don’t want to living here in a few years. I’ll keep my current home and possibly rent it out to top up my dwindling pension!

If we didn’t have so many ties here with elders requiring our help we’d have moved a few years ago!

Sounds like a great plan.👍 With my old man passing proper ties to the country are now gone (my brothers can look after themselves) but funds, and age, is my problem (I didn't bloody listen to my parents advice on pension plans etc.🤬) so I'll have to find somewhere that has a decent supply of work to make ends meet.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

On 23/06/2022 at 15:30, PurpleCanary said:

Still waiting for that Amazon package but it may be on its way and I think I have and said all I needed to! The point to stress is that the two sides have totally different endgames in mind. The EU is happy to adjust the protocol but its essential aim, to protect the Irish Sea border and so the single market, has to stay intact. Those driving the UK's attack on the protocol are really using it, and are quite open about this, as a way of destroying the border.

An apposite quote today from Lord Darroch, who was the UK ambassador to the US, concerning the illegality, the UK's avoidance of negotiations, and the critical role the DUP has in deciding the UK government's strategy:

"I don’t think that it’s consistent with international law, I don’t think it’s going to help us find an outcome to our issues with the European Union. Lawyers whose opinions I trust say it’s illegal.

"I’m far from convinced that the negotiating track has been fully exploited. I’m far from convinced that the government should be giving the DUP a veto on the whole process and I think that the way that you preserve all the gains of the Good Friday agreement is to continue negotiating with the European Commission and behind them the member states, and trying to improve the proposals they put on the table."

As said, the DUP has no interest in a solution that keeps the protocol. There was a reason Its recent booklet on the subject was not entitled Seven Reasons for Renegotiating the Protocol but rather Seven Reasons the Irish Sea Border Must Go.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

Sounds like a great plan.👍 With my old man passing proper ties to the country are now gone (my brothers can look after themselves) but funds, and age, is my problem (I didn't bloody listen to my parents advice on pension plans etc.🤬) so I'll have to find somewhere that has a decent supply of work to make ends meet.

I would think there is work available in a good many countries right now 

How easy for a UK citizen to take advantage of this, I don't know.

My leave voting boss declared a couple of weeks ago that he was looking at Icelandic citizenship 🤣

I'm 4 years away from eligibility, I'll wait and see what happens, but its nice to have options 

[Herman 9,717]

Good interview.

 

[sonyc 5,492]

On 25/06/2022 at 16:39, Creative Midfielder said:

Whilst in practice it wont be quite as simple as that I think you are fundamentally right - if the Scottish Government has a clear electoral mandate to hold a referendum on independence, as the current one has, then it will be almost impossible for any Westminister government to stand in its way - never mind one in the which the PM has only one interest, that of keeping himself in a job, and can't rely on the backing of nearly 50% of his MPs (maybe more than 50% after Thursday 😂😂)

Date set them?

The count down starts.

Interesting comments within the thread.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Date set them?

The count down starts.

Interesting comments within the thread.

Well at least the little Englanders won't have any of those foreign Scottish judges sitting over them 😉

 

[canarydan23 4,060]

23 hours ago, Herman said:

Sounds like a great plan.👍 With my old man passing proper ties to the country are now gone (my brothers can look after themselves) but funds, and age, is my problem (I didn't bloody listen to my parents advice on pension plans etc.🤬) so I'll have to find somewhere that has a decent supply of work to make ends meet.

I'd get my Irish passport and **** off the day after I'd got it if it was only on me. I could probably even negotiate with my current employer to work from anywhere as long as I committed to a handful of days a year back in the UK. A decent internet connection, a laptop, a villa with a pool and some Greek sunshine, it'd be heaven. But I've got pesky kids settled in schools, the bastards.

[Capt. Pants 4,198]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Date set them?

The count down starts.

Interesting comments within the thread.

Can we also have a Referendum in England to decide if Scotland stays?

[sonyc 5,492]

16 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

Can we also have a Referendum in England to decide if Scotland stays?

I'm guessing by your question that you might want Scotland to leave the union? 

The polls indicate a very even 50/50 split (similar to Brexit).

Johnson's behaviour seems to have made the mind up of many Scottish people ...but maybe it would change again should he be replaced before 2023?

Anyway, the Supreme Court decision on legality will be a fascinating one.

 

[Capt. Pants 4,198]

6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I'm guessing by your question that you might want Scotland to leave the union? 

The polls indicate a very even 50/50 split (similar to Brexit).

Johnson's behaviour seems to have made the mind up of many Scottish people ...but maybe it would change again should he be replaced before 2023?

Anyway, the Supreme Court decision on legality will be a fascinating one.

 

I can't stand Sturgeon but no I don't want them to leave but it would be very interesting to see the outcome if a Referendum in England was held on the exact same day. Knowing Boris he won't play nicely either, so a few scots may have to decide where they want to live and work.

[sonyc 5,492]

8 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

I can't stand Sturgeon but no I don't want them to leave but it would be very interesting to see the outcome if a Referendum in England was held on the exact same day. Knowing Boris he won't play nicely either, so a few scots may have to decide where they want to live and work.

Nor would I actually. I always feel countries (and nations) should work together. The 2020s  need countries to be close allies like never before. The world is in a dangerous place. Another divorce like that from Europe won't help anyone. But, I do understand how many Scots feel about the Westminster bubble, the contempt shown by Johnson. If I was to try and put myself in their shoes and what it might be like to live there, I also wonder what I might feel. The SNP could represent me I think given how I feel about this administration living in England.

We need a serious government that starts to show respect for other countries, not playing Populist bingo. This lot is ruining our reputation.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

Bit of long overdue good news https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/28/met-police-placed-special-measures-series-scandals

I wonder whether one of the scandals they will look into will be who was involved (both in the Met & the Government) in the corrupt stitch up whereby Johnson was given a risible Fixed Penalty Notice for the birthday cake affair and a completely free pass to the multiple more riotous parties we know he attended and for which other attendees were fined.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

1 hour ago, Capt. Pants said:

I can't stand Sturgeon but no I don't want them to leave

That seems to be a pretty common English reaction, especially a right wing English reaction, and I presume it is primarily because she is not only much smarter but a vastly better leader than Johnson, or any potential replacement at Westminster, will be ever be.

She also has a formidable electoral record as leader of the SNP which I imagine is why she is pretty confident about calling for a referendum whilst the polls are still quite close. Of course, she has been very canny in the way she has done it - firstly she's let Johnson fire up support amongst the Scots for independence both with his arrogant condescension towards Scotland generally as well as his refusal to grant a referendum, and now she asked the Supreme Court if they'd like to throw some fuel on the Independence flames as well.

So, its win-win as far as the SNP is concerned whatever the Supreme Court decide.

[Baracouda 47]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Nor would I actually. I always feel countries (and nations) should work together. The 2020s  need countries to be close allies like never before. The world is in a dangerous place. Another divorce like that from Europe won't help anyone. But, I do understand how many Scots feel about the Westminster bubble, the contempt shown by Johnson. If I was to try and put myself in their shoes and what it might be like to live there, I also wonder what I might feel. The SNP could represent me I think given how I feel about this administration living in England.

We need a serious government that starts to show respect for other countries, not playing Populist bingo. This lot is ruining our reputation.

I am sure Johnson, is hell bent on being the 'last prime minster' at this stage.

When you talk about a serious government, I have stopped voting and largely consider this to a pointless exercise with no confidence in Westminster. I find it laughable that we live in a 'true' democracy, when it appears that every party lie openly, plays word-gymnastic over any question and transparency/truth are in short supply, Westminster spends most of its time trying to control public opinion, instead of listening to it.  Democracy seems to exist like a leap-year and the only time they are concerned with the electorate. 

I wouldn't want the Scots to leave, nor do I believe there is real benefit in them leaving other than them re-joining the EU (and Escaping Westminster) but it is their choice. I have serious concerns about what it would look like post-divorce. With every aspect of society being closely woven together and needing to be unpicked and if the divorce was messy from the EU. England/Scotland divorce would be more far reaching. Inevitably their wont be any agreements pre-vote, and 5 years arguing about it. 

[sonyc 5,492]

4 minutes ago, Baracouda said:

I am sure Johnson, is hell bent on being the 'last prime minster' at this stage.

When you talk about a serious government, I have stopped voting and largely consider this to a pointless exercise with no confidence in Westminster. I find it laughable that we live in a 'true' democracy, when it appears that every party lie openly, plays word-gymnastic over any question and transparency/truth are in short supply, Westminster spends most of its time trying to control public opinion, instead of listening to it.  Democracy seems to exist like a leap-year and the only time they are concerned with the electorate. 

I wouldn't want the Scots to leave, nor do I believe there is real benefit in them leaving other than them re-joining the EU (and Escaping Westminster) but it is their choice. I have serious concerns about what it would look like post-divorce. With every aspect of society being closely woven together and needing to be unpicked and if the divorce was messy from the EU. England/Scotland divorce would be more far reaching. Inevitably their wont be any agreements pre-vote, and 5 years arguing about it. 

Very good post. I don't disagree with any point. And the choice of word 'divorce', which I also used, is very appropriate. It would be very unhelpful picking through the various rights, border issues - you can just see the arguments and attitudes hardening. Like Brexit but multiplied by 10. Why can't Tory voters see where Johnson is leading us?  A break up of the union after 300+ years. And of course you can also see and even appreciate why Scots would wish to vote so. 

[Baracouda 47]

2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Very good post. I don't disagree with any point. And the choice of word 'divorce', which I also used, is very appropriate. It would be very unhelpful picking through the various rights, border issues - you can just see the arguments and attitudes hardening. Like Brexit but multiplied by 10. Why can't Tory voters see where Johnson is leading us?  A break up of the union after 300+ years. And of course you can also see and even appreciate why Scots would wish to vote so. 

I can see the appeal for Scots... but when you try to and consider the implications of a vote it fast becomes quite scary and mind boggling the impact it would have. It is beyond my comprehension just how many national organisations would be impacted. 

Every aspect of society/governance appears to be regional organisations overseen by national organisations. 

* Policing, regional policing and joint task forces with Mi5 and counter-terrorism units and national bodies overseeing the national threats. 

* National security with border and military. What do they look like. I haven't checked their recent comments, from memory the SNP didn't seem pro-military. 

* Education, regional with a national structure for the universities and employers to understand. I assume that any student would have to apply as a foreign student post divorce. 

* Health, regional hospitals underpinned by national specialist hospitals. 

And that's just the easy to think of examples. I suspect that most if not all of the national organisation/Specialists are based in England primarily London. I suspect that there would be a massive decline in trade across the border and the opportunities south of the border for the Scots would be limited particularly with work/education or at least lots of hoops to jump through, whilst it works both ways their trade and job opportunities within the EU would naturally improve, assuming they get membership immediately. 

[horsefly 4,287]

13 hours ago, Capt. Pants said:

Can we also have a Referendum in England to decide if Scotland stays?

Obviously not. Throwing someone out of a "club" is a very different legal (and moral) issue than that member voluntarily withdrawing.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

17 hours ago, Baracouda said:

I can see the appeal for Scots... but when you try to and consider the implications of a vote it fast becomes quite scary and mind boggling the impact it would have. It is beyond my comprehension just how many national organisations would be impacted. 

Every aspect of society/governance appears to be regional organisations overseen by national organisations. 

* Policing, regional policing and joint task forces with Mi5 and counter-terrorism units and national bodies overseeing the national threats. 

* National security with border and military. What do they look like. I haven't checked their recent comments, from memory the SNP didn't seem pro-military. 

* Education, regional with a national structure for the universities and employers to understand. I assume that any student would have to apply as a foreign student post divorce. 

* Health, regional hospitals underpinned by national specialist hospitals. 

And that's just the easy to think of examples. I suspect that most if not all of the national organisation/Specialists are based in England primarily London. I suspect that there would be a massive decline in trade across the border and the opportunities south of the border for the Scots would be limited particularly with work/education or at least lots of hoops to jump through, whilst it works both ways their trade and job opportunities within the EU would naturally improve, assuming they get membership immediately. 

It would certainly be a huge upheaval, much like Brexit but apparently that all went really well 😂

Seriously though, although it would be a big deal and would take a while to thrash out all the detail I don't think it would be that scary for the Scots. Looking at your off the cuff list and admittedly there are loads more but Education and Health are already run directly from Scotland under the control of the Scottish Parliament, Police as well I believe.

Also many 'national' organisations in the UK have been recently set up to fill the voids created by Brexit - Scotland would not need to re-create these as they would revert back to the EU bodies that the UK was also employing until a couple of years ago.

I think the really unknown and fascinating issue would be the English/Scottish border and how that will be handled - that I suspect will depend on which politicians are in power in both countries when the time comes, seems unlikely that Johnson will still be around by then and no guarantee that Sturgeon will be either though I suspect she will be.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

Oh Dear. More Brexit gloom I'm afraid.

"Why is the UK economy suffering more than other countries?"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61997353

The solution seems like all the reasons as to why we joined the EEC/CM/SM in the first place in the 70's.

[ricardo 7,347]

 

[Herman 9,717]

Have you been at Swindo's video library? 

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

Have you been at Swindo's video library? 

The  market votes with real money Herman. Look at the pound today (and against the Euro or Dollar). 

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

 

How old is this? Dated certainly.

Odd how he seems to struggle or forget that the UK for one (among others) was outside the Euro and the Euro isn't the EU. The ECB didn't 'control' our economy or set our interest rates any more than the Fed did. We seem quite capable though of making our very own mess of that.

Neither does he seem to grasp that the Euro zone is a willing attempt to bring economies together - to lift the poorer nations. Frankly despite all the naysayers it's clearly survived and is working despite the strains. Nobody seriously thinks the euro is going to collapse anytime soon (pound maybe today) despite the 2008 crash, Greece, Covid and now the Russian war. I do note however that Ukraine and Moldova are keen to join.

The proof is now in the pudding though - quite clearly the UK outside the EU (and while not embracing a free for all sink or swim US model) is not 'prospering' but rather slipping back. That's what the markets think anyway. 

 

[KernowCanary 214]

The issue here is that the economic Covid aftershocks have happened the same time the country left the EU.

As a result people are confused if leaving the EU or Covid lockdowns/“curbs” on life are to blame, so just go for leaving the EU and then use it as the blame reason from there onwards for anything right down to striking.

The media were very quick to report that the pound fell to a very low level for the first time in ages after the first set of referendum results came in, yet these were from Gibraltar who voted something like 98 percent to remain.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,510]

13 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

How old is this? Dated certainly.

Odd how he seems to struggle or forget that the UK for one (among others) was outside the Euro and the Euro isn't the EU. The ECB didn't 'control' our economy or set our interest rates any more than the Fed did. We seem quite capable though of making our very own mess of that.

Neither does he seem to grasp that the Euro zone is a willing attempt to bring economies together - to lift the poorer nations. Frankly despite all the naysayers it's clearly survived and is working despite the strains. Nobody seriously thinks the euro is going to collapse anytime soon (pound maybe today) despite the 2008 crash, Greece, Covid and now the Russian war. I do note however that Ukraine and Moldova are keen to join.

The proof is now in the pudding though - quite clearly the UK outside the EU (and while not embracing a free for all sink or swim US model) is not 'prospering' but rather slipping back. That's what the markets think anyway. 

 

The Euro has done nothing to lift poorer nations, quite the opposite.

Using the UK as an example, regional variations in local economies mean central government varies per capita spending in different areas to compensate. There's always debate about whether this is enough, but it happens and helps compensate for the lack of slack from having to all use the same currency at the same value.

The eurozone has none of this. Instead, poorer eurozone countries owe more and more money to wealthier eurozone countries as the Euro denies the poorer countries the moderating effect of a floating exchange rate.

As for whether the Euro will collapse, the EU has done well fudging enough to keep it functioning, but this is the first time it has had to face really soaring inflation, so it'll be interesting to see how willing the German public will be to fund more fudges to keep it going, the political cost of it in Germany, and the political cost to the EU in poorer eurozone countries if it doesn't.

Fun fact. Germany actually broke the criteria for joining the eurozone and baked in its competitive advantage against other eurozone countries as a result.

As an aside, In the measures to pay for the pandemic in the Eurozone, German courts made a ruling on bond-buying that was contradicted by a later ECJ ruling, but Germany has effectively dismissed it, leaving the EU looking rather weak in failing to effectively sanction Germany for challenging the supremacy of EU law as the likes of Orban challenge the supremacy of EU law on areas relating to human rights.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-germany-ecb-idUSKBN2FB1AH

In conclusion, much as COVID and Ukraine had masked the fallout for the UK of leaving the EU, COVID and Ukraine have provided a distraction from the continued existence of fundamentally unresolved issues with how the EU operates.

Regarding Ukraine and Moldova being granted EU candidate status, it's a great political gesture of EU solidarity, but it raises difficult political questions on how the EU can practically protect them as non-NATO countries neighbouring a very hostile Russia.

Edited July 2, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

20 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

How old is this? Dated certainly.

Odd how he seems to struggle or forget that the UK for one (among others) was outside the Euro and the Euro isn't the EU. The ECB didn't 'control' our economy or set our interest rates any more than the Fed did. We seem quite capable though of making our very own mess of that.

Neither does he seem to grasp that the Euro zone is a willing attempt to bring economies together - to lift the poorer nations. Frankly despite all the naysayers it's clearly survived and is working despite the strains. Nobody seriously thinks the euro is going to collapse anytime soon (pound maybe today) despite the 2008 crash, Greece, Covid and now the Russian war. I do note however that Ukraine and Moldova are keen to join.

The proof is now in the pudding though - quite clearly the UK outside the EU (and while not embracing a free for all sink or swim US model) is not 'prospering' but rather slipping back. That's what the markets think anyway. 

 

Very strange talk indeed, and not just in his ignorance (or misrepresentations) of the EU but his views/comparisons with how well the US was dealing with the issues of a very large 'country' with very disparate regions seemed well out of kilter with reality and frankly bizarre.

[Van wink 2,994]

SKS

Having been shadow Brexit secretary under Jeremy Corbyn, Sir Keir will hope that taking a firm line on future relations with the EU will distance him from past support for a possible second referendum.

“There are some who say ‘We don’t need to make Brexit work. We need to reverse it’. I couldn’t disagree more,” Sir Keir will argue.

“Because you cannot move forward or grow the country or deliver change or win back the trust of those who have lost faith in politics if you’re constantly focused on the arguments of the past.

“So let me be very clear: with Labour, Britain will not go back into the EU. We will not be joining the single market. We will not be joining a customs union.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

SKS

Having been shadow Brexit secretary under Jeremy Corbyn, Sir Keir will hope that taking a firm line on future relations with the EU will distance him from past support for a possible second referendum.

“There are some who say ‘We don’t need to make Brexit work. We need to reverse it’. I couldn’t disagree more,” Sir Keir will argue.

“Because you cannot move forward or grow the country or deliver change or win back the trust of those who have lost faith in politics if you’re constantly focused on the arguments of the past.

“So let me be very clear: with Labour, Britain will not go back into the EU. We will not be joining the single market. We will not be joining a customs union.

This is a perfectly valid and expected position for Labour at the next election - ' Make Brexit work' or don't scare the horses -  however I've always said give it ten years from a year or two ago.  Interestingly the discussion is already starting a little earlier than expected  as the reality of this 'hard' Brexit becomes more and more obvious each day.

Oddly - I suspect as per the 1970s it will actually be a 'reset' and renewed head screwed back on Tory party that will lead the argument for re-engagement with the EU - looking no doubt as in the 1970s enviously at the lower interest rates,  economic success and yes stability there.

Ought to add the next election will simply be all about getting shot of the corrupt/corrupting/sleaze ridden/lying/cheating and basically self-serving Johnson party. There is really no reason for SKS to give any hostages to fortune or divisive let alone confrontational polices.

Edited July 4, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[Van wink 2,994]

Will be interesting to see how the die hard Remainers amongst Labour supporters see it and their level self discipline.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

12 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Will be interesting to see how the die hard Remainers amongst Labour supporters see it and their level self discipline.

Most Remainers I think are far more rational than Brexiteers. Brexit was an emotional argument after all not based on hard facts which is why in reality the Remainers struggled to argue (on facts) with them and why we are in the mess we are.  

That said, any party that tries to mend some fences, NI protocol, acceptance of EU standards etc will be moving forward however it is framed back towards the EU. As noted above - I do wonder if the election after next a renewed reinvented Tory party (after a near extinction level event) would actually campaign on exactly that - CU or even SM membership however worded. After all it's Brexity nostalgia driven pensioner base is already dwindling away and it urgently needs to attract younger voters to remain relevant.

It should also be noted that back in the 1970s it was the left, not the right, that was anti the common market etc. The  'protectionism' and petty mis-placed nationalism again (not 'Global' Britain).