New Tory Leader

[Creative Midfielder 2,003]

3 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

I don't think Johnson will quit, but I would be very surprised if Hunt was elected by Tory MPs. He seems the most competent of the possible candidates and relatively sane, unlike the others, who are either stupid or mad or both, as with Dorries. But he is not a Brexit true believer.

I've thought (horrible thought though it is!) for a long while that Jeremy Hunt is the most likely successor to Johnson for exactly the reasons you list, plus he is not tainted by having been a member of Johnson's cabinet.

Most of the successors in the Cabinet touted by the pundits would seem to me to be carrying a considerable amount of similar baggage to Johnson himself - they may not be the person that has led lied repeatedly to Parliament (and the country) but most have spent a considerable amount and time and effort making themselves look corrupt and stupid defending the indefensible, as well as being part and parcel of the many policy failures and u-turns of this government. So, if any of them get it, Labour would still have plenty of ammo to hand - Ben Wallace seems to be the only Cabinet member who looks vaguely competent in his own role and been fairly low profile otherwise.

Anyway, although Hunt is clearly not a Brexit true believer I wonder if that is such a handicap as it would have been a year ago (which was when I originally expected the Tories to dump Johnson!). Now it’s become clear to all but the true believers that Johnson's fantastic oven ready deal was actually a complete turkey with all its feathers still on, maybe Tory MPs would consider someone who may be able resolve some of the issues and actually implement the deal - something which Johnson has signally failed to do across the board and catastrophically so in NI.

 

 

[Creative Midfielder 2,003]

52 minutes ago, 1902 said:

Agreed. However the potential successors are pretty disastrous aswell. I'd rather a devalued and impotent Johnson than an invigorated Patel (for example).

That is a really horrible image to have conjured up!

[PurpleCanary 5,592]

16 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I've thought (horrible thought though it is!) for a long while that Jeremy Hunt is the most likely successor to Johnson for exactly the reasons you list, plus he is not tainted by having been a member of Johnson's cabinet.

 

Most of the successors in the Cabinet touted by the pundits would seem to me to be carrying a considerable amount of similar baggage to Johnson himself - they may not be the person that has led lied repeatedly to Parliament (and the country) but most have spent a considerable amount and time and effort making themselves look corrupt and stupid defending the indefensible, as well as being part and parcel of the many policy failures and u-turns of this government. So, if any of them get it, Labour would still have plenty of ammo to hand - Ben Wallace seems to be the only Cabinet member who looks vaguely competent in his own role and been fairly low profile otherwise.

 

Anyway, although Hunt is clearly not a Brexit true believer I wonder if that is such a handicap as it would have been a year ago (which was when I originally expected the Tories to dump Johnson!). Now it’s become clear to all but the true believers that Johnson's fantastic oven ready deal was actually a complete turkey with all its feathers still on, maybe Tory MPs would consider someone who may be able resolve some of the issues and actually implement the deal - something which Johnson has signally failed to do across the board and catastrophically so in NI.

 

 

 

CM, I think much of that would be valid about the Tory party of 15 or 20 years ago, but not now. What you say, for example, about Brexit ought to be true, that it is the disaster anyone with even half a brain knew it would be, and that Tory MPs need to elect someone who will stop the incendiary rhetoric and threats and deal properly with the EU and look to reduce the economic damage.

But the Tory party of now is genuinely like some kind of self-harming deathwish cult as far as Brexit goes. Seriously, if Frostie the Idiot, the man whose main complaint against the EU is that it is actually implementing the deal he negotiated, was an MP I swear he would win a leadership contest. And Brexit is just the most obvious example of the stupidity of the current Tory party.

[Creative Midfielder 2,003]

4 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Well you would hope that there were other controls on thet long before the Queen got involved.

Didn't the prorogation case ease the crown further out of the picture and set up the Supreme Court as the constitutional guardian?  This seems like a pretty good settlement: crown has no real powers at all, its all down to parliament as a whole and if the executive tries to bypass parliament the SC stops it.

 

You would certainly hope that there were other controls but in reality there are no effective controls, checks or balances whatsoever in our dysfunctional system.

But the Queen is our Head of State and it seems pretty clear to me that the Queen did have the power to refuse the prorogation and her failure to do so was a massive mistake. This has definitely (and quite rightly IMO) led to a big increase in the number of people who believe that the UK desperately needs a written constitution and a proper Head of State (as well as a good dollop of electoral reform!).

I know some people believe the the Queen's powers are theoretical only and could never be actually used  - I don't think that it right but if true is the case then it means that our system is even more systemically dyfunctional than it is if she has the powers and simply mistakenly failed to use them - either way it is a serious situation and one that has badly damaged the country.

As for the Supreme Court they didn't and couldn't possibly have stopped it. Granted, they reversed it, well after the event and when Johnson had already achieved what he wanted but that is hardly the same thing. Nor did they impose any sanction on Johnson (not sure whether they have the power to but I suspect not) so there is absolutely nothing to stop Johnson or another rogue PM repeating similar behaviour the next time it suits them. 

Edited June 6, 2022 by Creative Midfielder

[KiwiScot 1,489]

3 hours ago, TheGunnShow said:

Which referendum result showed the weaknesses of PR?

It's not a PR system that made me think that way, but with the Brexit Referendum result you then got a shambles of it's execution with groups within parties acting against each other as everybody tried to change or interpret the result to their own interests in the extreme. It just made me think this is what a hung parliment at it's worse could look like which is more likely with PR. I mean thinking about this response hung parliments make civilised coalitions all the time and in Scotland only 1 election actually returned a major single party goverment by 5 seats. Guess I'm used to majorities at Westminister and skeptical they could adapt to it well.

[Creative Midfielder 2,003]

1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said:

CM, I think much of that would be valid about the Tory party of 15 or 20 years ago, but not now. What you say, for example, about Brexit ought to be true, that it is the disaster anyone with even half a brain knew it would be, and that Tory MPs need to elect someone who will stop the incendiary rhetoric and threats and deal properly with the EU and look to reduce the economic damage.

But the Tory party of now is genuinely like some kind of self-harming deathwish cult as far as Brexit goes. Seriously, if Frostie the Idiot, the man whose main complaint against the EU is that it is actually implementing the deal he negotiated, was an MP I swear he would win a leadership contest. And Brexit is just the most obvious example of the stupidity of the current Tory party.

Sadly, I suspect that you are right - a rare but naive bit of optimism on my part. 🙄

The whole thing is actually pretty tricky - I imagine many of us are desperately hoping that Johnson gets the kicking he so richly deserves in tonight's poll whilst at the same time knowing that it is probably better for the medium/long term that he stays in place and continues to damage the Tory party right up to the next election - the trouble with that is as someone (Daz?) has already pointed out he is simultaneously damaging the country as well as the Tory party.

[1902 1,167]

34 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Sadly, I suspect that you are right - a rare but naive bit of optimism on my part. 🙄

The whole thing is actually pretty tricky - I imagine many of us are desperately hoping that Johnson gets the kicking he so richly deserves in tonight's poll whilst at the same time knowing that it is probably better for the medium/long term that he stays in place and continues to damage the Tory party right up to the next election - the trouble with that is as someone (Daz?) has already pointed out he is simultaneously damaging the country as well as the Tory party.

Agreed, but is he damaging the country more than his successor would? Sure standards in government have declined to abysmal levels, in generations past Johnson would have already gone, but the current polling suggests that this the current situation is already completely unpalatable to the British public. The UK has made it clear it had a line for what it will tolerate in public life and Johnson has already crossed it, what more damage will he do?

Edited June 6, 2022 by 1902

[sonyc 5,541]

BF is rarely wrong on political markets. The market expects between 100 and 150 votes - say 130 votes against. So a comfortable majority. No doubt traders will be scalping any small changes in odds before 8pm. Or maybe it will close around then.

Just think it is worth holding back on any expectations hence this share. I read too that red wall Tories are not the most competent or capable and will cling on to anyone just to save themselves. They don't really have any ideas on what the country needs. So, wouldn't expect them to turn against Johnson.

What will happen next is the most important thing. I expect the piglet will be greatly empowered and come out guns blazing. Maybe we will get some literary reference this evening. Or some jokes lined up?

Further, given what I think is his personality type, he will be actually enjoying today very much. Because once again the world king is the absolute centre of attention. It is what he badly needs to operate. To really feel important.

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by sonyc

[Herman 9,842]

He's dusted off some of the old favourites.

And this is very desperate.🤨

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by Herman

[Herman 9,842]

Breaking news.Very hot scoop from GB/Guido alumni.😀

 

[1902 1,167]

1 minute ago, Herman said:

He's dusted off some of the old favourites.

 

Beating the same old drum. If this is all the conservatives have got, then they are at more risk than I thought.

[Herman 9,842]

2 minutes ago, 1902 said:

Beating the same old drum. If this is all the conservatives have got, then they are at more risk than I thought.

When "I can change" comes out you know he's doomed.😀

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

The Tories lose tonight whichever result.

If he gets through and doesn't think that at least three sevenths of his Parliamentary Party think he is incompetent and he should resign then the country thinks they are and they will lose heavily in the upcoming elections and they will blame him but can't remove him. He is too arrogant to resign and will call it a resounding win and we need to move on.

But if he wins by a couple of hundred then the country will believe its because they don't have a successor. SO who is going to vote for a Party that thinks this imbecile is the best?

 

[sonyc 5,541]

Assuming say 135 votes against tonight (about 62% supporting him) then what might we predict later tonight?

Mogg stating this is resounding victory for Boris Johnson? That the situation is entirely different to that of May's vote?

That Johnson supporters on this forum will be posting around 9pm having some fun. They couldn't resist surely could they? 

That with Johnson safe for another year he will move in quick time to change the rules on votes of no confidence?

Nadine Dorries will tweet her thoughts and the whole cabinet will follow?

The pound will fall? 

The wider public will not be impressed? 

Starmer will be cleared ...the timing being now okay to complete their enquiry?

Any other predictions?

 

 

 

 

[ricardo 7,416]

10 minutes ago, sonyc said:

 

Any other predictions?

 

 

 

 

Yes, Aaron's unlikely to be here next season.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Assuming say 135 votes against tonight (about 62% supporting him) then what might we predict later tonight?

Mogg stating this is resounding victory for Boris Johnson? That the situation is entirely different to that of May's vote?

That Johnson supporters on this forum will be posting around 9pm having some fun. They couldn't resist surely could they? 

That with Johnson safe for another year he will move in quick time to change the rules on votes of no confidence?

Nadine Dorries will tweet her thoughts and the whole cabinet will follow?

The pound will fall? 

The wider public will not be impressed? 

Starmer will be cleared ...the timing being now okay to complete their enquiry?

Any other predictions?

 

 

 

 

Actually, it wouldn't surprise me if he arranges for SKIS to be given a spot fine. The man is a disgrace as a human being. Just ask the people who felt the effects of his leadership of the Bullingdon Club at Oxford. His constant affairs. His lies at the Spectator.

Rees Mogg defends him because he gave him a nice job. Dorries will defend him. Raab will defend him. All for the same reason.

Surely people are not thick enough to still believe his lies, think he is a good guy and let all his misdemeanours go unpunished?

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Just now, ricardo said:

Yes, Aaron's unlikely to be here next season.

Unlikely is sitting on the fence.

He won't be here next season.

[horsefly 4,318]

Apparently it's been leaked that he told the meeting of Tory MPs he would behave exactly the same again re Partygate. Thus, as we all knew, his profuse apologies were entirely insincere, as was his claim that the Sue Gray report was "humbling". The man is an incorrigible fraud and liar.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Ms Dorries tweeted: "Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so...

"You've been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now."

 

If Hunt gets the PM then Nadine, its back to Maggie Mays for you.

[ricardo 7,416]

We are blessed to live in interesting times.

Will Boris run out of road? They all do eventually.

World economy on the slide, WW3 just round the corner. Famine predicted. Delia won't  sell up.

Not a great time to be PM.

[horsefly 4,318]

Dotty Dorries actually says we are at war with Ukraine:

 

[1902 1,167]

21 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Apparently it's been leaked that he told the meeting of Tory MPs he would behave exactly the same again re Partygate. Thus, as we all knew, his profuse apologies were entirely insincere, as was his claim that the Sue Gray report was "humbling". The man is an incorrigible fraud and liar.

I mean, I think it's clear I'm no Boris fan, but that was taken out of context. He said he would have continued to go to what he thought were leaving parties. 

Do I think him thinking they were leaving parties was ****, absolutely. Do I think he is completely incapable of telling the truth, sure. However his speech was not as arrogant as it was reported to be.

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by 1902

[1902 1,167]

9 minutes ago, ricardo said:

We are blessed to live in interesting times.

Will Boris run out of road? They all do eventually.

World economy on the slide, WW3 just round the corner. Famine predicted. Delia won't  sell up.

Not a great time to be PM.

Ricardo. Please can we keep this thread to the crucial issues. 

 

 

What is the price I could potentially be offered for my 0.00000455 stake in Norwich City Football Club?

[horsefly 4,318]

1 minute ago, 1902 said:

I mean, I think it's clear I'm no Boris fan, but that was taken out of context. He said he would have continued to go to what he thought were leaving parties. 

Do I think him thinking they were leaving parties were ****, absolutely. Do I think he is completely incapable of telling the truth, sure. However his speech was not as arrogant as it was reported to be.

 

But that's precisely the point; leaving parties were NOT permissible under the Covid rules (and other attendees were fined for them). The fact that he has read the report and still maintains that they were acceptable shows no contrition whatsoever.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

5 minutes ago, 1902 said:

I mean, I think it's clear I'm no Boris fan, but that was taken out of context. He said he would have continued to go to what he thought were leaving parties. 

Do I think him thinking they were leaving parties were ****, absolutely. Do I think he is completely incapable of telling the truth, sure. However his speech was not as arrogant as it was reported to be.

 

I think it is clear he said that to try and establish he did nothing wrong. "Before you vote against me please realise I did nothing wrong so I would do it again".

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Douglas Ross will now vote against Johnson. Old Spinner Ross is at it again.

[ricardo 7,416]

6 minutes ago, 1902 said:

Ricardo. Please can we keep this thread to the crucial issues. 

 

 

What is the price I could potentially be offered for my 0.00000455 stake in Norwich City Football Club?

I could take them off your hands at the right price. Im looking to increase my holding above the present 20 shares.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Just now, ricardo said:

I could take them off your hands at the right price. Im looking to increase my holding above the present 20 shares.

Is that an aggressive takeover?

[ricardo 7,416]

2 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Is that an aggressive takeover?

I might stick my tongue out at him.

When hes not looking.😉

[Barbe bleu 834]

3 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

You would certainly hope that there were other controls but in reality there are no effective controls, checks or balances whatsoever in our dysfunctional system.

But the Queen is our Head of State and it seems pretty clear to me that the Queen did have the power to refuse the prorogation and her failure to do so was a massive mistake. This has definitely (and quite rightly IMO) led to a big increase in the number of people who believe that the UK desperately needs a written constitution and a proper Head of State (as well as a good dollop of electoral reform!).

I know some people believe the the Queen's powers are theoretical only and could never be actually used  - I don't think that it right but if true is the case then it means that our system is even more systemically dyfunctional than it is if she has the powers and simply mistakenly failed to use them - either way it is a serious situation and one that has badly damaged the country.

As for the Supreme Court they didn't and couldn't possibly have stopped it. Granted, they reversed it, well after the event and when Johnson had already achieved what he wanted but that is hardly the same thing. Nor did they impose any sanction on Johnson (not sure whether they have the power to but I suspect not) so there is absolutely nothing to stop Johnson or another rogue PM repeating similar behaviour the next time it suits them. 

Interesting thoughts. 

  The prorogation case was really quite unusual and I think people underestimate just how far the court went to make the decision they did. 

If this came up again I guess anyone with standing (and that certainly means any MP) can just walk up to the RCJ and apply for an injunction without too much delay...But it won't happen again any time soon.

Anyway there are other things on that i know are of more interest so ill leave you to that discussion