New Tory Leader

[Fen Canary 853]

16 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Historically these polls have been the most accurate partly because they poll 15,000 people rather than 2,000.

A complete mess for the Conservatives as they may drop below 100 seats. Critics of Sunak are again suggesting a new leader but I can't help thinking that would make the electorate even more angry. 

The biggest problem for the Conservatives maybe funding. Will large donors still be prepared to part with huge sums to prop up a party with fewer than 100 MPs? 

A Lib Dem friend tells me that their doorstep campaigning in the Midlands has revealed large numbers of traditionally Conservative voters who say they won't be voting at all. Perhaps that's the real reason for the huge Labour lead? 

The total number of votes per party will be an interesting piece of info actually. It will give us more of an idea whether those voters have gone to Labour, Reform or just not bothered. The Tories will be praying that it’s one of the last two as it would be much easier to get those votes back in the future. 

[dylanisabaddog 4,963]

32 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

The total number of votes per party will be an interesting piece of info actually. It will give us more of an idea whether those voters have gone to Labour, Reform or just not bothered. The Tories will be praying that it’s one of the last two as it would be much easier to get those votes back in the future. 

It's impossible to say really as we've never seen anything like this before. 

As I've said before, the Conservatives rely on the baby boom generation for their votes. Those people have started to die and in 20 years most of us will be gone. Support for the Tories in the under 40's currently stands at 14% and in the 18-21 age group it's less than 5%. In general, voters used to become more right wing as they got older but that doesn't seem to be the case any more. 

Polls show that anyone who attends University is hugely more likely to vote Labour and Blair knew that.  The Tories have had 14 years to sort that out but they haven't. We should have 25% at Uni and 75% in a proper apprenticeship scheme. It would benefit the country but the Tories are so useless they've missed the opportunity. It will be interesting to see if Labour dares to change it. 

Common sense would dictate that they need to move to a John Major style of politics but at the moment it looks like they'll go further in the other direction. 

Everything being equal, what is clear is that this year's election will almost certainly give Labour 10 years of power. 

Edited March 31 by dylanisabaddog

[Fen Canary 853]

2 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

It's impossible to say really as we've never seen anything like this before. 

As I've said before, the Conservatives rely on the baby boom generation for their votes. Those people have started to die and in 20 years most of us will be gone. Support for the Tories in the under 40's currently stands at 14% and in the 18-21 age group it's less than 5%. In general, voters used to become more right wing as they got older but that doesn't seem to be the case any more. 

Common sense would dictate that they need to move to a John Major style of politics but at the moment it looks like they'll go further in the other direction. 

Everything being equal, what is clear is that this year's election will almost certainly give Labour 10 years of power. 

The Tories biggest long term error is not getting more youngsters into their own homes. People aren’t going to become more conservative as they age if they’ve been given nothing to conserve.

I tend to disagree about copying Major, much of continental Europe is heading in a more populist (for want of a better word) direction especially amongst the younger voters, wanting lower immigration, less globalisation and more protectionist economies, and I think the Tories would have more electoral success with that going forward. However that goes against all the Thatcherite ideology that many Tory MPs slavishly claim to follow.

I also think Labour should be set for 2 elections, but I’ve still no idea what Starmer stands for. This time he can rely on simply not being the Tories for a large majority, but that’s not much of a long term strategy going forward. I’ve a horrible feeling it’ll just be more of the same going forward to be honest 

[dylanisabaddog 4,963]

12 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

The Tories biggest long term error is not getting more youngsters into their own homes. People aren’t going to become more conservative as they age if they’ve been given nothing to conserve.

I tend to disagree about copying Major, much of continental Europe is heading in a more populist (for want of a better word) direction especially amongst the younger voters, wanting lower immigration, less globalisation and more protectionist economies, and I think the Tories would have more electoral success with that going forward. However that goes against all the Thatcherite ideology that many Tory MPs slavishly claim to follow.

I also think Labour should be set for 2 elections, but I’ve still no idea what Starmer stands for. This time he can rely on simply not being the Tories for a large majority, but that’s not much of a long term strategy going forward. I’ve a horrible feeling it’ll just be more of the same going forward to be honest 

The most recent election in Europe was in Poland. It moved from the right to the left. 

[Fen Canary 853]

19 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

The most recent election in Europe was in Poland. It moved from the right to the left. 

Keep an eye on the upcoming EU elections as most are expecting a sharp rightward shift. In the near future it’s also not inconceivable that Le Pen, Wilders, Meloni, the AfD, Vox, Chega, Swedish Democrats etc could be in power in some capacity in their national parliaments, all parties much further to the right than any in the UK

[dylanisabaddog 4,963]

1 minute ago, Fen Canary said:

Keep an eye on the upcoming EU elections as most are expecting a sharp rightward shift. In the near future it’s also not inconceivable that Le Pen, Wilders, Meloni, the AfD, Vox, Chega, Swedish Democrats etc could be in power in some capacity in their national parliaments, all parties much further to the right than any in the UK

Sorry, but I've been hearing that for years. They just shout loudly and make good copy. 

In the UK Labour is currently standing around 45% and extensive polling reveals that immigration doesn't even make the top 10 of concerns of people who are going to vote for them. 

And then of course there's your saviour, Nigel Farage whose current form is played 7 lost 7.

[Fen Canary 853]

5 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Sorry, but I've been hearing that for years. They just shout loudly and make good copy. 

In the UK Labour is currently standing around 45% and extensive polling reveals that immigration doesn't even make the top 10 of concerns of people who are going to vote for them. 

And then of course there's your saviour, Nigel Farage whose current form is played 7 lost 7.

Why do you assume I’d vote for Farage? I agree with him about leaving the EU and the need to reduce immigration, but financially his free trade/open borders globalism is closer to yourself and Starmer than my protectionist preferences.

As I pointed out above, immigration is either the second or third most important subject for voters in Britain. You can choose to ignore it but it’s largely the reason the parties I’ve mentioned above have been gaining influence on the continent. The populist right is likely to make a major advance in Europe in June, but thanks to Brexit us Brits will have no part in it. You can thank me later 

[dylanisabaddog 4,963]

2 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

 

As I pointed out above, immigration is either the second or third most important subject for voters in Britain. 

Why do you persist with that nonsense? It just isn't true. What's more, the 45% that matter at the moment don't even put it in their top 10.

[Fen Canary 853]

8 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Why do you persist with that nonsense? It just isn't true. What's more, the 45% that matter at the moment don't even put it in their top 10.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48056-to-what-extent-is-immigration-a-top-issue-for-britons
 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country
 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/do-brits-think-that-immigration-has-been-too-high-or-low-in-the-last-10-years
 

You ignored these last time, but you’re right. Nobody in Britain cares about the current levels of immigration 

[sonyc 5,541]

28 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48056-to-what-extent-is-immigration-a-top-issue-for-britons
 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country
 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/do-brits-think-that-immigration-has-been-too-high-or-low-in-the-last-10-years
 

You ignored these last time, but you’re right. Nobody in Britain cares about the current levels of immigration 

Far, far more important an ssue is the state of our rivers Fen. I believe the state of sewage is a metaphor for the current state of this country. Don't forget that in 2021 the vast majority of Tories voted  for water companies to continue to dump. They've not protected the public but profits. A lot of people will not forget this. Yesterday many in the boat race crews were poisoned by e coli after the race afterwards. Health is as big an issue as any matter. Folk know the state of their local health services (e.g. getting GP appointments in many parts of the country....local surgeries being run by spin offs, who don't care for local people, closing the surgeries for days each week). People experience long waiting times for health conditions or know someone close who is. 

Declining health is a good enough metaphor for 14 years under the Tories. Even life expectancy is falling. If you haven't got your health what is the value of your life? Anything else disappears into insignicance doesn't it? Immigration is an important issue but the issues right at the core of life, at the base of Maslow's Triangle, if you like, are far more on peophes' minds. Watch Question Time and you'll see the anger of people in Britain.

Sure, Labour are going to have a hell of a job turning this all around. And underwhelmed as I am about Starrmer, what I see is honesty about the issues. That counts for me. I would not wish to hear any more triumphalism - that's for the Tories - who have seriously underperformed and the easy sound bites of Farage. He doesn't have a clue. But he sounds convincing to some.

We ought to all care about our rivers and seas for starters. We ought not be back to the 1600s should we? We need to focus on health. For the future of our NHS and economy. Forget the culture war nonsense and the madness of people like Truss etc al who are still agitating (unbelievably). Their vision for Britain is not what we need. We need a long,blong term plan. In my opinion Fen you should look for someone to vote for who talks about such stuff as I know you feel bereft of the current alternatives. But that's just my opinion of course.

Edited March 31 by sonyc
Usual errors typing quickly on my mobile

[Fen Canary 853]

11 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Far, far more important an ssue is the state of our rivers Fen. I believe the state of sewage is a metaphor for the current state of this country. Don't forget that in 2021 the vast majority of Tories voted  for water companies to continue to dump. They've not protected the public but profits. A lot of people will not forget this. Yesterday many in the boat race crews were poisoned by e coli after the race afterwards. Health is as big an issue as any matter. Folk know the state of their local health services (e.g. getting GP appointments in many parts of the country....local surgeries being run by spin offs, who don't care for local people, closing the surgeries for days each week). People experience long waiting times for health conditions or know someone close who is. 

Declining health is a good enough metaphor for 14 years under the Tories. Even life expectancy is falling. If you haven't got your health what is the value of your life? Anything else disappears into insignicance doesn't it? Immigration is an important issue but the issues right at the core of life, at the base of Maslow's Triangle, if you like, are far more on peophes' minds. Watch Question Time and you'll see the anger of people in Britain.

Sure, Labour are going to have a hell of a job turning this all around. And underwhelmed as I am about Starrmer, what I see is honesty about the issues. That counts for me. I would not wish to hear any more triumphalism - that's for the Tories - who have seriously underperformed and the easy sound bites of Farage. He doesn't have a clue. But he sounds convincing to some.

We ought to all care about our rivers and seas for starters. We ought not be back to the 1600s should we? We need to focus on health. For the future of our NHS and economy. Forget the culture war nonsense and the madness of people like Truss etc al who are still agitating (unbelievably). Their vision for Britain is not what we need. We need a long,blong term plan. In my opinion Fen you should look for someone to vote for who talks about such stuff as I know you feel bereft of the current alternatives. But that's just my opinion of course.

Nothing will happen until the utilities are brought back under public control is my opinion unfortunately. I agree it’s an important issue but not one party has proposed anything I think will fix it 

[Yellow Fever 3,812]

4 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

The Tories biggest long term error is not getting more youngsters into their own homes. People aren’t going to become more conservative as they age if they’ve been given nothing to conserve.

This I agree with Fen.

The Tories (and Reform's actually) biggest problem is that they evermore represent the narrow view and interests of the decaying elderly and not those of the young. What was Anderson's comment - 'my 80 year old parents didn't recognize the country or the Tory party' or words to that effect. I hope not. It's not the 1950s/60/70s anymore!

Housing and the cost of renting is the big problem. Instead of sorting this and inter-generational inequality we have triple lock and 'culture' wars.

I bought my first London flat at 25 ish on 3 times my modest salary alone. Not a hope today!

They deserve extinction. Metaphorically they've eaten the seed corn, eaten the future.

Edited March 31 by Yellow Fever

[Barbe bleu 831]

2 hours ago, sonyc said:

Far, far more important an ssue is the state of our rivers Fen. I believe the state of sewage is a metaphor for the current state of this country. 

That London needed a new sewage system to replace the victorian version built for half the population and a lot less concrete on the ground has been known for decades.   As long ago as 2001 a formal report went through thw options and decided that a super sewer was the things we needed. 

 The super sewer will open next year.  But, why it's taken 24 years and billions of pounds are questions that are being  overlooked.       What do we do wrong when it comes to infrastructure?

[sonyc 5,541]

Yes BB it will make a difference. I recall seeing a feature on it on TV a few months ago. Yet, it won't solve the issue of continued sewage dumping. See article below.

I think in terms of infrastructure some party ought to begin the conversation about increased taxation and what it will help to pay for. Labour have stated they will beef up the powers of the regulator, banning bonuses, making CEOs face criminal liability, plus improved monitoring. Many Labour MPs are urging Starrmer to re-nationalise but the cost is enormous ("fiscal caution and responsibility" being the kind of responses to that request).

It isn't enough as a response but 100 times more responsible than what the Tories have been doing.

 

https://www.wired.com/story/sewage-environment-climate-change-london/

 

[Herman 9,804]

Here's a very good, very down, view of Britain. A long read.

 

[A Load of Squit 5,199]

Fighting like rats in a sack.

Tice's 'special Easter message' to Gullis really captures the spirit of the religious festivities.

 

[Fen Canary 853]

4 hours ago, sonyc said:

Yes BB it will make a difference. I recall seeing a feature on it on TV a few months ago. Yet, it won't solve the issue of continued sewage dumping. See article below.

I think in terms of infrastructure some party ought to begin the conversation about increased taxation and what it will help to pay for. Labour have stated they will beef up the powers of the regulator, banning bonuses, making CEOs face criminal liability, plus improved monitoring. Many Labour MPs are urging Starrmer to re-nationalise but the cost is enormous ("fiscal caution and responsibility" being the kind of responses to that request).

It isn't enough as a response but 100 times more responsible than what the Tories have been doing.

 

https://www.wired.com/story/sewage-environment-climate-change-london/

 

Personally I’d like to see both major parties sit down and create a list of infrastructure projects to be completed over the next 30 years that have bipartisan support (sewers, reservoirs, energy etc) so businesses can plan works going forward knowing they’re not going to be canned simply due to a change of government. This stability going forward would help with build costs as building firms wouldn’t be constantly ramping up and then drastically reducing their workforce at the whims of elections, they could plan decades in advance knowing the money is there whoever is in charge 

[Daz Sparks 1,160]

27 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

Personally I’d like to see both major parties sit down and create a list of infrastructure projects to be completed over the next 30 years that have bipartisan support (sewers, reservoirs, energy etc) so businesses can plan works going forward knowing they’re not going to be canned simply due to a change of government. This stability going forward would help with build costs as building firms wouldn’t be constantly ramping up and then drastically reducing their workforce at the whims of elections, they could plan decades in advance knowing the money is there whoever is in charge 

If only, Fen, sadly, polarisation seems to have widened more than ever.

[sonyc 5,541]

37 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

Personally I’d like to see both major parties sit down and create a list of infrastructure projects to be completed over the next 30 years that have bipartisan support (sewers, reservoirs, energy etc) so businesses can plan works going forward knowing they’re not going to be canned simply due to a change of government. This stability going forward would help with build costs as building firms wouldn’t be constantly ramping up and then drastically reducing their workforce at the whims of elections, they could plan decades in advance knowing the money is there whoever is in charge 

Yes, I've made this point many times. A collegiate / collaborative long term plan. It's been done in Scandinavian countries as well as in Germany post Berlin Wall. The funding needed was identified and political commitment to see the various projects was not for discussion.

Good point about businesses needing the long term view too. That kind of thinking would also unite a country and there might actually be quite a few things to be proud of. We are good at one off events, normally the cultural  (Olympics, royal events etc) but somehow the everyday stuff that affects the whole country is subject to political cycles...and again to say that's the shame about the last 14 years. What a waste of opportunity.

[Yellow Fever 3,812]

From Wikipedia - latest polls down to that Survation (Times one) in the news this weekend. Not much change. Pretty static.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

2024[edit]

For political events during the year, see 2024 in United Kingdom politics and government and 2024 in the United Kingdom.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Area	Sample size	Con	Lab	Lib Dems	SNP	Green	Reform	Others	Lead
27–28 Mar	Techne	N/A	GB	1,641	23%	44%	10%	3%	5%	12%	3%	21
27–28 Mar	We Think	N/A	GB	1,295	25%	44%	10%	3%	5%	10%	3%	19
26–27 Mar	YouGov	The Times	GB	2,061	21%	40%	10%	3%	8%	16%	show 3%	19
25–27 Mar	Savanta	The Sun	UK	3,302	24%	45%	10%	3%	3%	12%	4%	21
23–24 Mar	More in Common	N/A	GB	1,966	27%	42%	10%	3%	5%	11%	show 2%	15
22–25 Mar	Deltapoll	N/A	GB	2,072	26%	44%	9%	3%	6%	11%	2%	18
24 Mar	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	GB	2,000	22%	42%	12%	2%	6%	14%	2%	20
22–24 Mar	Savanta	The Telegraph	UK	2,216	24%	44%	10%	3%	4%	11%	4%	20

[Herman 9,804]

FFS. I think we can all agree that the greed of a small percentage is causing us and many countries major problems. Trickle down was always hoover up.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/31/tory-plans-to-abolish-non-dom-status-riddled-with-loopholes-labour-says

[dylanisabaddog 4,963]

12 hours ago, Herman said:

FFS. I think we can all agree that the greed of a small percentage is causing us and many countries major problems. Trickle down was always hoover up.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/31/tory-plans-to-abolish-non-dom-status-riddled-with-loopholes-labour-says

I suspected as much when Hunt said he was going to introduce "a new non-dom system". In case anyone isn't aware, the UK non dom tax system is very unusual. I'm not aware of any countries that have anything like it. Labour is promising to scrap it and the Conservatives have said they've scrapped it but they haven't. A bunch of crooks. 

[king canary 7,645]

22 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

This I agree with Fen.

The Tories (and Reform's actually) biggest problem is that they evermore represent the narrow view and interests of the decaying elderly and not those of the young. What was Anderson's comment - 'my 80 year old parents didn't recognize the country or the Tory party' or words to that effect. I hope not. It's not the 1950s/60/70s anymore!

Housing and the cost of renting is the big problem. Instead of sorting this and inter-generational inequality we have triple lock and 'culture' wars.

I bought my first London flat at 25 ish on 3 times my modest salary alone. Not a hope today!

They deserve extinction. Metaphorically they've eaten the seed corn, eaten the future.

This is it basically.

For younger people what reason is there to vote Tory? The constant mood music from the Tory party is that young people are all either too woke or too lazy to be cared about- largely sources of ridicule rather than voters with their own issues.

[king canary 7,645]

On 28/03/2024 at 21:37, Fen Canary said:

Isn’t that true for almost any subject bar the economy though? Not many single issue parties will get a look in with FPTP

It isn't about being a single issue party though.

It is about trying to boost an issue that most voters say is 3rd or 4th in their list of priorities to 1st. It won't work. It's especially doomed to failure when you notice that the Tories have been in charge for a long time and so any failures in this area reflect badly on them.

Parties have a habit of retreating to their comfort zone issues when things are tough. With the Tories that used to be the economy but Truss destroyed their advantage there. So they focus on immigration. For labour, their comfort zone is the NHS and in the past they've tried to do the same thing by trying to make elections about that but you can't just talk past voters.

[Fen Canary 853]

11 hours ago, king canary said:

It isn't about being a single issue party though.

It is about trying to boost an issue that most voters say is 3rd or 4th in their list of priorities to 1st. It won't work. It's especially doomed to failure when you notice that the Tories have been in charge for a long time and so any failures in this area reflect badly on them.

Parties have a habit of retreating to their comfort zone issues when things are tough. With the Tories that used to be the economy but Truss destroyed their advantage there. So they focus on immigration. For labour, their comfort zone is the NHS and in the past they've tried to do the same thing by trying to make elections about that but you can't just talk past voters.

The Tories campaigning on immigration with their record on the subject would be suicidal. However that wasn’t really the point I was trying to make.

Dylan was claiming that immigration was a non issue amongst the wider electorate, I was merely pointing out that it’s either the second or third most important issue, behind the economy and roughly on par with the health service. Trying to pretend this isn’t the case or simply ignoring it is a fools errand as if you do that the anger will eventually surface elsewhere, as we’re seeing with right wing parties on the continent gaining support or the violent protests in Ireland.

I agree running a campaign based on immigration at the expense of one based on the cost of living would be a mistake as the cost of living currently takes priority for a majority of voters, but by the same token completely ignoring an issue that is probably next in line in terms of peoples priorities is equally foolish 

[horsefly 4,310]

https://x.com/BylineTV/status/1674419890994946051?s=20

[Fen Canary 853]

9 hours ago, horsefly said:

https://x.com/BylineTV/status/1674419890994946051?s=20

Do people actually believe this nonsense? A man that stupid he can get himself sacked over some birthday cake as well as being one of Ukraines staunchest allies at the start of the conflict, is simultaneously some high level KGB plant in the Commons? Aren’t most spies quite inconspicuous, whilst drawing attention to yourself and your actions was Boris’ whole persona?

[littleyellowbirdie 2,566]

3 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

Do people actually believe this nonsense? A man that stupid he can get himself sacked over some birthday cake as well as being one of Ukraines staunchest allies at the start of the conflict, is simultaneously some high level KGB plant in the Commons? Aren’t most spies quite inconspicuous, whilst drawing attention to yourself and your actions was Boris’ whole persona?

You're talking about people who want to believe it; critical thinking is not involved.It's really no different to the Obama truthers encouraged by Trump.

Edited April 3 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,804]

Boris Johnson, Russian asset, like Farage, hiding in plain sight. Trashed Britain for a generation which pleases Putin. Ludicrous to believe?? Yes, the more ludicrous the better to make it less believable.

[dylanisabaddog 4,963]

There is a popular misconception that Johnson is highly intelligent. That seems unlikely bearing in mind his educational achievements which were ordinary despite having the best and most expensive schooling available. It's worth watching the documentary 'The rise and fall of Boris Johnson' just to see his expression when asked about David Cameron's far superior academic results. 

I very much doubt he knowingly spied for Russia but he is hugely attracted by money and lacks judgment, particularly when it comes to the company that he keeps. The evidence may point to him being a Russian asset but the likelihood is that he's just plain stupid and completely out of his depth. 

I'm not sure why the media has any interest in him anymore. He won't be remotely interested in being an opposition MP and is probably finished as a politician.