Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,395]

18 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Hints of Bill about this posting, Merry Christmas you old fool 👍

Great minds think alike😉

[RobJames 881]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Great minds think alike😉

Yes. I am Bill (who ever that is). Easier that way to avoid the point. And I note that the figure is now 1/2 million. What's a million between friends,eh?

[Van wink 2,994]

31 minutes ago, RobJames said:

Yes. I am Bill (who ever that is). Easier that way to avoid the point. And I note that the figure is now 1/2 million. What's a million between friends,eh?

Eh?

[Yellow Fever 3,801]

3 hours ago, Van wink said:

Started popping up in care homes now, big policy gamble not to introduce more restrictions 

Too many people grabbing at extremely dodgy numbers half reported coming out across a bank holiday (Christmas no less) weekend. What could possibly go wrong 🤔 

At the moment it's all extremely short term politics driving the response from Johnson. No recall this week for him to be pilloried over. Anyway, the die (pun) is cast now especially given the New Year parties.

There will be nobody and no-where left to hide if the NHS starts to fail. No excuses or we tried our best! No, you gambled.

[Aggy 755]

2 hours ago, Indy said:

Sceptic? I didn’t quote the numbers WBB did, secondly I’m making a statement that the 1-2 million isn’t going to happen! I’ll leave it there as your obviously on a trolling expedition on here, but feel free to PM WBB who originally quoted this I’m sure he’ll point you to where you want to go!

Yes I expect the irony ‘that won’t be lost on most’ is that this poster didn’t bother to ask for sources when the figures were originally used in a more ‘cautious’ context. Tends to be the way on here.

[Aggy 755]

BBC - couple of interesting comments I’d missed over the last few days

 

“Data emerging in England points to a very difficult month ahead for the NHS, but not a completely overwhelming one.

Last week estimates were published suggesting Omicron was causing milder illness.

But it was unclear what that would translate to in the real world - if infections rose high enough there was still a threat the NHS would not cope.

London, which was the first area to see an Omicron wave, gives us an indication of what to expect.

The first half of December saw cases detected double week on week.

But the growth in hospital admissions - taking into account the lag between initial infection and becoming seriously ill - has been much lower, at about two-thirds.

And those that are admitted appear to be spending less time in hospital.

What's more, the surge in infections looks like it started levelling off before Christmas.

If this is right and the trends hold and are repeated elsewhere, it would suggest hospital numbers will peak at under half of what was seen last winter - very much best-case scenario territory.

That, though, is a lot of ifs. But it looks like it has been enough to convince ministers more restrictions cannot be justified for now.

The health secretary said 90% of cases across England were now the Omicron variant, which was first identified in South Africa a month ago.

Latest figures showed there were 8,474 people with Covid currently in hospital in England - the highest since March, but well below last winter's peak of more than 34,000.

Not all the patients in hospital will have been admitted for Covid - about three in 10, according to the latest data, have the virus but were admitted to hospital for something else.”

[KernowCanary 214]

I see Netflix are doing another “Death to…..” so-called “Special” again.

I really thought they wouldn’t do this again, it’s utter tripe and making jokes about horrible things, which I find inappropriate and the main topic of discussion in this thread is it’s main thing again.

Once again it has in it, that actress who’s also in Ricky Gervais’s ”Afterlife” who plays the Juno who wears the oversized glasses that make her eyes enlarged, letting herself down….. again.

I bet the idiots will watch this in their droves just so we get a “Death to 2022” made this time next year, instead of a new season of “F is For Family”.

I won’t be watching, the first one I switched off ten minutes in and I found it vile to joke about such things where people have died.

[The Real Buh 3,445]

8 hours ago, KernowCanary said:

I see Netflix are doing another “Death to…..” so-called “Special” again.

I really thought they wouldn’t do this again, it’s utter tripe and making jokes about horrible things, which I find inappropriate and the main topic of discussion in this thread is it’s main thing again.

Once again it has in it, that actress who’s also in Ricky Gervais’s ”Afterlife” who plays the Juno who wears the oversized glasses that make her eyes enlarged, letting herself down….. again.

I bet the idiots will watch this in their droves just so we get a “Death to 2022” made this time next year, instead of a new season of “F is For Family”.

I won’t be watching, the first one I switched off ten minutes in and I found it vile to joke about such things where people have died.

I think you’ve missed the point of that show…

[The Real Buh 3,445]

• Professor Sir John Bell said the public had been 'pretty responsible' so far as he said decision was 'fine'
• Oxford don said 'horrific scenes' of overwhelmed NHS 'is now history in my view' as he backed PM
• Despite surge in Omicron variant cases, figures on hospital admissions down  50% on December 2020
• Stats reveal 842 Covid patients in ICU on ventilators - the lowest in two months

good news! 

bad news for those vaccines forever and passports to allow us to continue our lives lot though…

[A Load of Squit 5,183]

2 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

• Professor Sir John Bell said the public had been 'pretty responsible' so far as he said decision was 'fine'
• Oxford don said 'horrific scenes' of overwhelmed NHS 'is now history in my view' as he backed PM
• Despite surge in Omicron variant cases, figures on hospital admissions down  50% on December 2020
• Stats reveal 842 Covid patients in ICU on ventilators - the lowest in two months

good news! 

bad news for those vaccines forever and passports to allow us to continue our lives lot though…

I think you've missed the point of Prof. Sir John Bells statement.

[The Real Buh 3,445]

Just now, A Load of Squit said:

I think you've missed the point of Prof. Sir John Bells statement.

How do you spin constant vaccines forever and passports when the disease isn’t causing hospitalisation going forward?

[Mark .Y. 352]

12 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Too many people grabbing at extremely dodgy numbers half reported coming out across a bank holiday (Christmas no less) weekend. What could possibly go wrong 🤔 

At the moment it's all extremely short term politics driving the response from Johnson. No recall this week for him to be pilloried over. Anyway, the die (pun) is cast now especially given the New Year parties.

There will be nobody and no-where left to hide if the NHS starts to fail. No excuses or we tried our best! No, you gambled.

I'm not sure many people are paying too much attention to the Christmas numbers YF.

The only ones I am keeping my fingers crossed for are those that Ricardo published which seem to show numbers in London falling before the Xmas break.

[KernowCanary 214]

The MSM never stop with their annoying buzzwords almost as much as their scaremongering.

Their latest addition…. “Jingle Jabs”, how pathetic.

[Yellow Fever 3,801]

38 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

I'm not sure many people are paying too much attention to the Christmas numbers YF.

The only ones I am keeping my fingers crossed for are those that Ricardo published which seem to show numbers in London falling before the Xmas break.

Yes but they are trying to justify their delays on these numbers - but you also need to recognize its human nature NOT to get a positive LFT/PCR test just before holidays and have to formally isolate - easier to it if at all possible ignore (and then again many will be quick to get one when it's back to work!).

It happens in the summer too (and all weekends)! Known effect.

I'm really hoping that this gamble pays off but I'd rather we took a few extra measures now and then revoke quickly if proved not needed. At present by the time we have the real 'data' it could be three weeks too late. I'm sure those gamblers wouldn't then mind being turned away at the hospital door!

[Aggy 755]

7 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes but they are trying to justify their delays on these numbers -

I don’t think that’s correct at all. They’re justifying the delays (assuming you’re talking about delays to restrictions/government action?) on the hospitalisation numbers surely. 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

From the experiences of my own family, the variant is causing little more than a bad cold. I hope this is magnified across the world. If so, then I think yesterdays decision was fair enough. With the news that there are two variants of interest in South America, it ay well be that something stricter may be needed in the future.

Personally, I am believing that each variant is getting less debilitating but maybe more contagious.

[Mark .Y. 352]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes but they are trying to justify their delays on these numbers - but you also need to recognize its human nature NOT to get a positive LFT/PCR test just before holidays and have to formally isolate - easier to it if at all possible ignore (and then again many will be quick to get one when it's back to work!).

It happens in the summer too (and all weekends)! Known effect.

I'm really hoping that this gamble pays off but I'd rather we took a few extra measures now and then revoke quickly if proved not needed. At present by the time we have the real 'data' it could be three weeks too late. I'm sure those gamblers wouldn't then mind being turned away at the hospital door!

I don't think that is strictly true YF, the hospital numbers are the key, surely - and I say that knowing that they are rising around 200 per day at the moment.

But there is also quite a body of evidence out there that suggests the Omicron variant is not only far less debilitating but that the "wave" seems to pass more quickly than previous variants. If the figures that Ricardo posted regarding London are correct (and we have no reason to assume they aren't) they seem to back this up.  

[KernowCanary 214]

3 hours ago, The Real Buh said:

I think you’ve missed the point of that show…

In my opinion Netflix made this and the previous instalment too soon, they should have waited a few years. Let things get back to normal then look back at 2020 and 2021.

Everything is still too fresh and people are getting depressed as it is, so its not really the best time to start laughing about it right now.

[ricardo 7,395]

Going up in Southern Europe now.

Greece 21k that is about 120k UK pop equivalent

Italy 78k

Possibly Omicron now. 

 

[KernowCanary 214]

I’m very surprised the Brazilian band Cansei de Ser Sexy, didn’t re-record their 2007 hit single as a parody.

So instead of calling it “Let’s Make Love and Listen to Death From Above 1979”, their new version would be “Let’s Make Love and Watch Death To 2021”.

Edited December 28, 2021 by KernowCanary

[ricardo 7,395]

National

129,471 - 18       

rate of increase of  30.3%            rate of increase continues to decline    1.6 million tests

 

Local

Norwich   West rate             1323.9      Local   R  estimated 1 - 1.2

    

N&N Patients 

21-12-2021                                     19 20-12-2021 22 19-12-2021 23 18-12-2021 25 17-12-2021 23
Vax      1st Dose      16,357              89.8% done                               Norwich numbers   78.3%        Booster rate 46.5%      2nd Dose     18,965              82.2% done                                                                  72% Booster    215,703     total          32,696,064                56.9%           In Hospital         not updated on dashboard since 22nd. but have seen 9,546 quoted elsewhere. (SKY TV) 22-12-2021                              8,240 21-12-2021 8,027 20-12-2021 7,825 19-12-2021 7,589 18-12-2021 7,435 17-12-2021 7,506

 

Edited December 28, 2021 by ricardo

[Yellow Fever 3,801]

I would wait a few days on the 'daily' data as currently its all over the place - for instance today - 

28 December 2021

Log category:DATA ISSUE

Incomplete data for cases due to the holidays

During the holidays, consistency of cases data for different areas vary for both publish and specimen date metrics:

• Figures for Wales represent the sum of figures that would have been reported on 25 and 26 December 2021.

• Provisional figures for Scotland are not included in the data. They will be added to the time series once confirmed.

• No figures have been reported for Northern Ireland.

See the breakdown of cases by publish date for 28 December 2021 in the details section.

[Mark .Y. 352]

9 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I would wait a few days on the 'daily' data as currently its all over the place - for instance today - 

28 December 2021

Log category:DATA ISSUE

Incomplete data for cases due to the holidays

During the holidays, consistency of cases data for different areas vary for both publish and specimen date metrics:

• Figures for Wales represent the sum of figures that would have been reported on 25 and 26 December 2021.

• Provisional figures for Scotland are not included in the data. They will be added to the time series once confirmed.

• No figures have been reported for Northern Ireland.

See the breakdown of cases by publish date for 28 December 2021 in the details section.

YF............. yes, we are all waiting, we genuinely do understand that the figures are a bit all over the place for the last few days. It is perfectly understandable. Literally nobody on here is trying to draw any conclusions from the last couple of days of data 

[ricardo 7,395]

7 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

YF............. yes, we are all waiting, we genuinely do understand that the figures are a bit all over the place for the last few days. It is perfectly understandable. Literally nobody on here is trying to draw any conclusions from the last couple of days of data 

Yet it's already clear that this isn't translating into hospitalisations on the Delta scale.

Data from S.Africa still very encouraging.

[Mark .Y. 352]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Yet it's already clear that this isn't translating into hospitalisations on the Delta scale.

Data from S.Africa still very encouraging.

And I'm sure we hope that continues.

It does get to me a bit that people harangue the government for not following the science and when the science from South Africa gives some very clear messages they seem to feel that it is not worth listening to (and I say that in a way that does not excuse this government for their repeated failures)  

[ricardo 7,395]

S.Africa now ignoring asymptomatic cases, no quarantine, no contact tracing. They are focusing entirely on symptomatic cases.

[KernowCanary 214]

The French health minister isn’t exactly helping mental health with his “Film without an ending” comment.

Well done to the mayor of Manchester for being the only politician to actually comment on mental health if any “curbs” get thrown in. Wish more were like him.

Edited December 28, 2021 by KernowCanary

[ricardo 7,395]

179,087 cases in France.

[Van wink 2,994]

5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

179,087 cases in France.

Wow, presumably mainly Omicron

[ricardo 7,395]

8 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Wow, presumably mainly Omicron

Europe is going to get lucky, Omicron is going to save them from Delta.