Corona Virus main thread

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=IND~USA~GBR~CAN~DEU~FRA

I think you've summed it up there ICF. I follow World in Data because it's interesting to see the comparisons with other countries. I've no idea why as an early adopter vaccine-wise our rates are so high. Perhaps vaccine immunity is waning (BBC R4 discussing this) or it's our behaviours? Where we live I reckon as low as 10% wear masks in shops and other places for example on some days! Are we in holiday mood and care less? Do we think it's over and we won't get very ill? Are we as a country leading the way in following a herd immunity approach (letting the virus burn through)? Is it to do with government policy? 

We are at c.1000 deaths a week now (50k PA) which is about a usual flu year isn't it? Or a bit less die with flu?

Anyway, I don't know anymore. Nor why rates taking off now in Wales. Or what's happening to variants. Commentary of Twitter from a range of observers is mixed. They give different scenarios from 'all should be fine' to more concerning comment should the wrong things happen. It's a puzzle. Clearly, far from over, clearly very geographic. Clearly vaccines have huge effects. More than that, it's hard to say.

 

Thanks @sonyc - whenever I see case numbers I want to know how many tests are being carried out. The uk always seems to be doing a lot of tests relative to population size which will give us a higher number of confirmed cases per 100k pop than another country which had exactly the same number of Covid cases but isn’t testing as much.

 

The key metrics for us IMO are levels of hospitalisations (and ultimately deaths) and the trend in case numbers. it’s a massive surprise that case numbers in England have stayed flat since all restrictions were removed and my perception is that social distancing is definitely declining. That would make it a surprise to me if vaccines are already losing  effectiveness.

 

As always with Covid the data are incomplete and we’ll have a much better idea what’s happening now (mid September) a month or two later!!

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Meanwhile in the US Biden is making it mandatory for 100m workers i.e. most of the labour force to be vaccinated. Amazing. 
 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/09/joe-biden-coronavirus-covid-pandemic-white-house

[sonyc 5,518]

39 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Meanwhile in the US Biden is making it mandatory for 100m workers i.e. most of the labour force to be vaccinated. Amazing. 
 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/09/joe-biden-coronavirus-covid-pandemic-white-house

Not able to give any more 'likes' atm ICF but agree about hospitalisation data. On testing too (something I had taken my eye off, so it's a helpful point).

Re. above...Biden stands in such contrast with Trump doesn't he? I believe it's the right thing to do in such a health crisis. It's why I've wanted our own administration to be strong.

I'm not a fan of sayings such as "we don't want a nanny state". Of course we don't want to have an overly statist society. Of course we want freedoms. But, I believe those kinds of statements are made by some because of economic interests (probably personal ones at that) and not for the improvement of national health of the many. We are in a kind of war but this time it's with a virus.

I cannot imagine in the real wartime (say WW2) when people were asked to blackout their windows, that many folk said "no chance, you're not taking away my personal choice" etc etc. Were people were more community spirited? (they were more deferential).

Then, lockdown was well observed by so many but people have got tired. Businesses have had to re-start too.I know the world has changed! 

The point being that we still ought to be on the front foot in our national decision making. Upfront. Honest.  I haven't seen much evidence of it. I would want that approach by ANY party btw. Even if they get it wrong. It is a pandemic and we cannot easily predict what will happen next. Javid needs to be more visible. Then so does the opposition (what opposition!).

I'm becoming more convinced we could see passporting emerge. I would support it as I would mandated vaccination for some of the workforce. It's about trying to care for all ...that's the way I consider it. Strangely, I  read that Morrisons the supermarket is the target for anti-vaxxers with their sick pay policy. 

[ricardo 7,395]

National

29,547 - 156

rate of increase 5.9%

Local

Norwich infection rate     311.6    down 1.5% on the week

(19 patients in N&N   down from 24               ( updated to 7th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      25,019              89% done                 Norwich numbers   76.6%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     89,832                80.8% done                                                68.3%

In Hospital

08-09-2021	8,098
07-09-2021	7,940
06-09-2021	8,009
05-09-2021	7,723
04-09-2021	7,531
03-09-2021	7,648
02-09-2021	7,604

[ricardo 7,395]

ZOE now tumbling sharply in England.

 

[ricardo 7,395]

National

29,173 - 56

rate of increase 1.1%

Local

Norwich infection rate     290.5    down 10.8% on the week

(19 patients in N&N   down from 24               ( updated to 7th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      27,229              89.1% done                 Norwich numbers   76.6%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     96,435                80.9% done                                                68.3%

In Hospital

8-09-2021	8,098
07-09-2021	7,940
06-09-2021	8,009
05-09-2021	7,723
04-09-2021	7,531
03-09-2021	7,648
02-09-2021	7,604

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

19 hours ago, ricardo said:

National

29,173 - 56

rate of increase 1.1%

Local

Norwich infection rate     290.5    down 10.8% on the week

(19 patients in N&N   down from 24               ( updated to 7th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      27,229              89.1% done                 Norwich numbers   76.6%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     96,435                80.9% done                                                68.3%

In Hospital

8-09-2021	8,098
07-09-2021	7,940
06-09-2021	8,009
05-09-2021	7,723
04-09-2021	7,531
03-09-2021	7,648
02-09-2021	7,604

So Scotland numbers now seem to be flat and England also still basically flat. 

 

Zoe app still seems to be on a downward trend.

 

Fingers crossed, if Scotland has peaked, and England follows the same trajectory now our schools are back, that won't be too bad, but we wait and see how soon (or indeed, if)  the return to schools leads to an increase in cases.

[The Real Buh 3,432]

On 11/09/2021 at 12:51, It's Character Forming said:

Meanwhile in the US Biden is making it mandatory for 100m workers i.e. most of the labour force to be vaccinated. Amazing. 
 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/09/joe-biden-coronavirus-covid-pandemic-white-house

“And the land of the free” lol

if he survives to the next election he’s never getting in. 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

Teenagers now expected to have the jab approved for them... hopefully helps squeeze the case numbers down for a while longer

[Yellow Fever 3,784]

Zoe.

Guys do remember that Zoe's predictions are based on numbers normally 5 day plus old.

i.e. todays  - "Estimated on 13 September based on data from 26 August to 09 September"

All the data has a lag - confirmed PCR tests (the daily headline numbers) even more so. We really do need to chill out and realize that it may be at least a couple of weeks before see the effects of the 'start' of term etc. 

[ricardo 7,395]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

. We really do need to chill out and realize that it may be at least a couple of weeks before see the effects of the 'start' of term etc. 

Its the dog that didn't bark.

[Yellow Fever 3,784]

6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its the dog that didn't bark.

What happened last year ?

[ricardo 7,395]

National

30,825 - 61

rate of decrease 8.4% and very sharply down on last Monday in all UK nations.

England (21077) Scotland (4241) Wales (4308) and Northern Ireland (1199).

Local

Norwich infection rate     284.9   down 26.2% on the week

(19 patients in N&N   down from 24               ( updated to 7th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      14,955              89.1% done                 Norwich numbers   76.7%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     52,615                81% done                                                68.8%

In Hospital

10-09-2021	8,256
09-09-2021	8,095
08-09-2021	8,101
07-09-2021	7,945
06-09-2021	8,011
05-09-2021	7,728
04-09-2021	7,534

Edited September 13, 2021 by ricardo

[ricardo 7,395]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

What happened last year ?

I think we won the Championship and got promoted.

[ricardo 7,395]

Another good sign, admissions dropping last two days.

[ricardo 7,395]

[Well b back 3,207]

5 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Teenagers now expected to have the jab approved for them... hopefully helps squeeze the case numbers down for a while longer

Hi TJ

As reported a couple of months ago I believe everything that will be confirmed tomorrow is as follows.

12-15 yrs done in schools over an 8 week period - 1 single dose of Pfizer

Boosters to over 50’s ( not sure if + diabetics ect ). Booster will be min 6 months after dose 2 and will be a single dose of PFIZER whichever vaccine you had.
Hope that’s all correct.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Hi TJ

As reported a couple of months ago I believe everything that will be confirmed tomorrow is as follows.

12-15 yrs done in schools over an 8 week period - 1 single dose of Pfizer

Boosters to over 50’s ( not sure if + diabetics ect ). Booster will be min 6 months after dose 2 and will be a single dose of PFIZER whichever vaccine you had.
Hope that’s all correct.

are JCVI groups 1 to 9 going to be part of the boosters? (asking for a friend...)

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

National

30,825 - 61

rate of decrease 8.4% and very sharply down on last Monday in all UK nations.

England (21077) Scotland (4241) Wales (4308) and Northern Ireland (1199).

Local

Norwich infection rate     284.9   down 26.2% on the week

(19 patients in N&N   down from 24               ( updated to 7th Sept))

 

Vax

1st Dose      14,955              89.1% done                 Norwich numbers   76.7%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     52,615                81% done                                                68.8%

In Hospital

10-09-2021	8,256
09-09-2021	8,095
08-09-2021	8,101
07-09-2021	7,945
06-09-2021	8,011
05-09-2021	7,728
04-09-2021	7,534

This is good but I’ve just noticed the Scotland site saying there is an IT issue that’s reduced numbers that are reported, not sure if that’s just Scotland though.

[Well b back 3,207]

7 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

are JCVI groups 1 to 9 going to be part of the boosters? (asking for a friend...)

This was the conversations today, I am not even sure it will be for those with underlying conditions, but I suspect it will.

We have had all our advanced DBS checks, so we were pretty certain on kids.

I believe it will all be announced, kids possibly tonight, the rest tomorrow. As you know things change, even in a day. The winter programme runs until ‘ March ‘ which tends to suggest everyone will have one more. We bought 96 million Pfizer from Europe.

[Well b back 3,207]

@Tetteys Jig 

Looks like the BBC has my leak to now lol. Seems pretty similar to what we were led to believe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58552389

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

@Tetteys Jig 

Looks like the BBC has my leak to now lol. Seems pretty similar to what we were led to believe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58552389

6 months post jab 2 then... November for me!

Interesting the flu line came out again. I do wonder if we might actually get away with a light season of flu again since we are still mitigating compared to pre pandemic. R0 of flu was like 1.3 before the pandemic so if many are still wearing masks and avoiding people it may just not take off like it normally does? Any data on how the Southern hemisphere got on this winter?

Edited September 13, 2021 by Tetteys Jig

[Well b back 3,207]

19 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

6 months post jab 1 then... November for me!

Interesting the flu line came out again. I do wonder if we might actually get away with a light season of flu again since we are still mitigating compared to pre pandemic. R0 of flu was like 1.3 before the pandemic so if many are still wearing masks and avoiding people it may just not take off like it normally does? Any data on how the Southern hemisphere got on this winter?

Not sure of numbers but quoted as low again, however they have now been close on 100% mask wearing for 18 months, which has not happened in the West.

[Well b back 3,207]

23 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

6 months post jab 1 then... November for me!

Interesting the flu line came out again. I do wonder if we might actually get away with a light season of flu again since we are still mitigating compared to pre pandemic. R0 of flu was like 1.3 before the pandemic so if many are still wearing masks and avoiding people it may just not take off like it normally does? Any data on how the Southern hemisphere got on this winter?

6 months after jab 2 I think TJ. Remember those first groups were 12 weeks to jab 2. That ties in with our winter retentions to March 2022. 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

3 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Not sure of numbers but quoted as low again, however they have now been close on 100% mask wearing for 18 months, which has not happened in the West.

I suspect that isn't true when you think of places like South Africa and Brazil for example... Travel also nowhere near pre pandemic levels which will probably reduce flu spread as well.

Many places in the southern hemisphere have been in and out of lockdowns whilst they stumble to get their populations vaccinated as well

Perhaps there's something I'm missing but I just don't see how there'd suddenly be a big flu season unless some supervariant has emerged.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

6 months after jab 2 I think TJ. Remember those first groups were 12 weeks to jab 2. That ties in with our winter retentions to March 2022. 

sorry, I meant jab 2... I'm in with "the dodgy lot" so got in there early for my age 😆

Edited September 13, 2021 by Tetteys Jig

[Well b back 3,207]

Just now, Tetteys Jig said:

I suspect that isn't true when you think of places like South Africa and Brazil for example... Travel also nowhere near pre pandemic levels which will probably reduce flu spread as well.

Many places in the southern hemisphere have been in and out of lockdowns whilst they stumble to get their populations vaccinated as well

Perhaps there's something I'm missing but I just don't see how there'd suddenly be a big flu season unless some supervariant has emerged.

Sorry I was talking Asia. 
When does flu season start in South Africa ?

[Tetteys Jig 830]

Just now, Well b back said:

Sorry I was talking Asia. 
When does flu season start in South Africa ?

no idea, just assume it ties in with their winter so when we have summer 🤷‍♂️ I might have read somewhere that there is actually a bit of a pattern of flu flow though but can't remember where

[Well b back 3,207]

1 minute ago, Tetteys Jig said:

sorry, I meant jab 2... I'm in with "the dodgy lot" so got in there early for my age 😆

You accidentally bring up a good point, those that were done outside their time ( early ) ie when doses were given out that were left over to teachers etc.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

7 minutes ago, Well b back said:

You accidentally bring up a good point, those that were done outside their time ( early ) ie when doses were given out that were left over to teachers etc.

my wife being one of those... I wonder if she'll be allowed to jump the queue this time around (provided there's some spares going around)?