Corona Virus main thread

[KernowCanary 214]

On 21/09/2021 at 15:55, ricardo said:

Thats been clear for some time now.

Agreed, although the MSM like to make us think otherwise by still continuing to publish the daily figures and announce them on national news shows.

I haven’t watched TV in ages thanks to that, not even Auntie Beeb to watch MOTD, I just go onto YouTube.

[KernowCanary 214]

On 21/09/2021 at 16:40, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Kári Stefánsson says delta is probably the worst variant that we will see. 

"My guess is that what we are seeing now is probably the most infectious virus we are going to see. We shouldn't be sitting here in deep anxiety over the possibility that the virus will mutate even more and develop an even more infectious form of itself,” deCODE genetics boss Kári Stefánsson told Norway’s TV2 this weekend.

 

The Delta variant caused enormous disruption in Iceland this summer and is prevalent around the world. The variant hit Iceland hard following the completion of the initial vaccination programme and the removal of all domestic anti-contagion measures. It is only now that Iceland finally appears to be seeing the end of its fourth wave of infection. 

In interview with TV2 (in English), Kári said he is hopeful vaccine manufacturers are developing better vaccines, but also that the ones currently in use are making a big difference in preventing infection and avoiding serious illness. “We need such [new] vaccines. If that succeeds, we can say goodbye to this virus for good.” 

According to TV5, Iceland is probably the only country in the world where all positive test samples have been genetically sequenced, and that deCODE therefore holds important information on the development of the virus that causes COVID-19. 

Kári believes that the virus has probably mutated 50 million times already and that this development will continue. “It is possible we will see variants that are as contagious as Delta but less damaging. Viruses are only interested in infecting and damaging the host as little as possible. They just want to survive.” 

Kári says sequencing has prevented further outbreaks in Iceland. The country’s methods have garnered international attention. “I am sure that in the future when and epidemic like this comes, the virus will be sequenced everywhere, to the extent that we have been doing.” 

Kári has been a regular and cautionary voice in the media throughout the pandemic. He has advocated stronger restrictions and warned of the potential of new, more dangerous variants. His words on the Delta variant therefore mark a change of tone and a more positive note that the pandemic may now be slowly coming to an end. 

 

Went to Iceland last week, because of this I had to have a test before departure and not long ago they removed that requirement, allowing the “Delta” to get through and infect even the double jabbed.

Well done on them for doing so damn well overall though.

Edited September 26, 2021 by KernowCanary

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,180]

11 minutes ago, KernowCanary said:

Went to Iceland last week, because of this I had to have a test before departure and not long ago they removed that requirement, allowing the “Delta” to get through and infect even the double jabbed.

Well done on them for doing so damn well overall though.

People with an association to Iceland have to test on return as well 

Whereabouts did you go?

[KernowCanary 214]

9 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

People with an association to Iceland have to test on return as well 

Whereabouts did you go?

Reykjavik, landing at Keflavik.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,180]

9 minutes ago, KernowCanary said:

Reykjavik, landing at Keflavik.

I work at Keflavík and live in Reykjavík 🙂

Hope you had a good time 

[KernowCanary 214]

4 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

I work at Keflavík and live in Reykjavík 🙂

Hope you had a good time 

It was fantastic, really want to go again and see the Golden Circle, Volcano, waterfalls in the south parts and Reykjavik again.

I’m going to book up to go in August once I get paid next week. Dillon Whiskey Bar was fantastic and staff a really good laugh and so welcoming and friendly.

That’s brilliant you work at the airport and live in Reykjavik, really so quick and efficient getting through passports and vaccination/PCR test checks, then straight to the bus!.

[ricardo 7,328]

National

37,960 - 40

rate of increase 13.4% .(7 days)

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     213.8  up 31%

16 patients in the N&N  21st Sept ( Down from 33 on previous report)

 

Vax

1st Dose      14,120            89.7% done                 Norwich numbers   77%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     24,851             82.4% done                                                     70.4%

In Hospital ( numbers dropping quite rapidly now )

24-09-2021	6,865
23-09-2021	7,131
22-09-2021	7,384
21-09-2021	7,604
20-09-2021	7,781
19-09-2021	7,731
18-09-2021	7,682
17-09-2021	7,895

[ricardo 7,328]

National

34,526 -167

rate of increase 12.2% .(7 days)

This last couple of months has just been a gentle up and down wave.

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     237.7  up 55.8%

16 patients in the N&N  21st Sept ( Down from 33 on previous report)

 

Vax

1st Dose      24,919             89.7% done                 Norwich numbers   77%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     33,177             82.4% done                                                     70.4%

In Hospital

27-09-2021	7,000
26-09-2021	6,775
25-09-2021	6,917
24-09-2021	6,883
23-09-2021	7,137
22-09-2021	7,387
21-09-2021	7,607
20-09-2021	7,782

[ricardo 7,328]

[ricardo 7,328]

Increases seem to be almost entirely driven by the younger age groups.

[Aggy 747]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

Increases seem to be almost entirely driven by the younger age groups.

Quite clear it’s mostly in schools - the rise in every age group started mid September, a couple of weeks after schools went back, and massively more so in the 10-19 year olds, with 0-9 year olds next.  Having been back for a few weeks, it now appears to have turned a corner and is dropping back down even in the young age groups. The hospitalisation figures reducing make sense in that context too.

What’s most curious IMO is why the 40-49 year olds are so much higher than the 20-29 and 30-39 year olds. Perhaps mostly parents of the 10-19 year olds? Perhaps then makes sense that 30-39 year olds are next (possibly mostly parents of the 0-9 year olds?), with the 20-29 year olds now having fewer infections than everyone below 60, and not many more than the 60-69 year olds. 

[sonyc 5,481]

3 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Quite clear it’s mostly in schools - the rise in every age group started mid September, a couple of weeks after schools went back, and massively more so in the 10-19 year olds, with 0-9 year olds next.  Having been back for a few weeks, it now appears to have turned a corner and is dropping back down even in the young age groups. The hospitalisation figures reducing make sense in that context too.

What’s most curious IMO is why the 40-49 year olds are so much higher than the 20-29 and 30-39 year olds. Perhaps mostly parents of the 10-19 year olds? Perhaps then makes sense that 30-39 year olds are next (possibly mostly parents of the 0-9 year olds?), with the 20-29 year olds now having fewer infections than everyone below 60, and not many more than the 60-69 year olds. 

Another graph in the thread showing rates across local authority areas

 

 

[Well b back 3,180]

3 hours ago, Aggy said:

Quite clear it’s mostly in schools - the rise in every age group started mid September, a couple of weeks after schools went back, and massively more so in the 10-19 year olds, with 0-9 year olds next.  Having been back for a few weeks, it now appears to have turned a corner and is dropping back down even in the young age groups. The hospitalisation figures reducing make sense in that context too.

What’s most curious IMO is why the 40-49 year olds are so much higher than the 20-29 and 30-39 year olds. Perhaps mostly parents of the 10-19 year olds? Perhaps then makes sense that 30-39 year olds are next (possibly mostly parents of the 0-9 year olds?), with the 20-29 year olds now having fewer infections than everyone below 60, and not many more than the 60-69 year olds. 

The official graphs show 11 - 15 year olds, which are still rocketing, the 16 - 19 are the next group and they are reducing rapidly as their spike was festival time. That chart is making the schools look much better as it is including 2 separate groups banded together.

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

The official graphs show 11 - 15 year olds, which are still rocketing, the 16 - 19 are the next group and they are reducing rapidly as their spike was festival time. That chart is making the schools look much better as it is including 2 separate groups banded together.

I think some are misinterpreting the drop in the lag period. The drop is always present simply as not all the case data is yet processed/recorded and the drops will almost certainly fill in (grow) and return to trend.

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

Hmm - just saw Zoe now over 58,000. Up up and up quickly. 

[ricardo 7,328]

National

36,722 -150

rate of increase 11.4% .(7 days) 3rd day of decline plus deaths -7.2% and admissions -14.6% now headed down.

 

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     241  up 36%

16 patients in the N&N  21st Sept ( Down from 33 on previous report and admissions dropping away))

 

Vax

1st Dose      31,853             89.8% done                 Norwich numbers   77%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     33,532             82.5% done                                                     71%

In Hospital

8-09-2021	6,976
27-09-2021	7,007
26-09-2021	6,777
25-09-2021	6,921
24-09-2021	6,885
23-09-2021	7,140
22-09-2021	7,390
21-09-2021	7,605

[ricardo 7,328]

Admissions still well below projections.

[Aggy 747]

8 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Hmm - just saw Zoe now over 58,000. Up up and up quickly. 

Any thoughts on how that might affect hospitalisations then or are you now firmly and openly in the ‘zero covid nut’ camp?

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

12 hours ago, Aggy said:

Any thoughts on how that might affect hospitalisations then or are you now firmly and openly in the ‘zero covid nut’ camp?

Are you being deliberately offensive and argumentative, misinterpreting my quite frankly mainstream position? Please desist, it's immature and adds nothing to the debate.

Everybody in the mainstream expects some sort of 'spike' or wave this autumn - first as we are seeing in the school kids and then spreading to others. The questions is only how serious it will be and the effect upon the NHS. Most expects quite a 'bumpy' ride. I am simply not blasé about it and treat Covid with the seriousness it deserves.

[sonyc 5,481]

36 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Are you being deliberately offensive and argumentative, misinterpreting my quite frankly mainstream position? Please desist, it's immature and adds nothing to the debate.

Everybody in the mainstream expects some sort of 'spike' or wave this autumn - first as we are seeing in the school kids and then spreading to others. The questions is only how serious it will be and the effect upon the NHS. Most expects quite a 'bumpy' ride. I am simply not blasé about it and treat Covid with the seriousness it deserves.

My take is that you are one of the cautious posters on this subject YF. ...which, has always been fine by me. Equally. I've been interested in reading the thoughts of those who are pro-freedom of measures etc. Further, I take interest in those who are sticklers for the evidence and the numbers. Takes all sorts and have always felt that this forum works best when people just take a curious point of view (when perhaps they find themselves disagreeing with a position or a post). It is it difficult to be curious? The answer is 'probably' because it requires just a moment of thinking beforehand - at least it does for me. So often, I could be ready to post my initial emotional reaction to something but give it a few minutes and I find I  can at least accept another view.

Covid (like Brexit), seems to have divided people so much. I know I harp on about how a government needs to lead the way (to govern) but it does have a responsibility as our 'parent in loco' as part of its educative duty. We have seen just how vapid and lacking this present one is, whose values are ones that won't bring a country together. If you look to how some Scandinavian countries fare, it is, on the whole, a far happier picture - of trust and understanding amongst citizens.

This forum is just a microcosm. People take sides quite quickly. On the subject of this thread, I thought I knew quite a bit about Covid in the middle of 2020 but arguably I know less now! Interestingly, I had the same thought when in my 20's that I knew lots about the world and when I was in my 30's I would know most of what was needed. Of course, in the next few decades I realised I was wrong in my 20's and in fact I had been asking the wrong questions or worse, I wasn't even sure what the questions I needed answers to were!😄

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

My take is that you are one of the cautious posters on this subject YF. ...which, has always been fine by me. Equally. I've been interested in reading the thoughts of those who are pro-freedom of measures etc. Further, I take interest in those who are sticklers for the evidence and the numbers. Takes all sorts and have always felt that this forum works best when people just take a curious point of view (when perhaps they find themselves disagreeing with a position or a post). It is it difficult to be curious? The answer is 'probably' because it requires just a moment of thinking beforehand - at least it does for me. So often, I could be ready to post my initial emotional reaction to something but give it a few minutes and I find I  can at least accept another view.

Covid (like Brexit), seems to have divided people so much. I know I harp on about how a government needs to lead the way (to govern) but it does have a responsibility as our 'parent in loco' as part of its educative duty. We have seen just how vapid and lacking this present one is, whose values are ones that won't bring a country together. If you look to how some Scandinavian countries fare, it is, on the whole, a far happier picture - of trust and understanding amongst citizens.

This forum is just a microcosm. People take sides quite quickly. On the subject of this thread, I thought I knew quite a bit about Covid in the middle of 2020 but arguably I know less now! Interestingly, I had the same thought when in my 20's that I knew lots about the world and when I was in my 30's I would know most of what was needed. Of course, in the next few decades I realised I was wrong in my 20's and in fact I had been asking the wrong questions or worse, I wasn't even sure what the questions I needed answers to were!😄

Yes I'm cautious SC. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst. We've already seen what happens 3 or 4 times before with Covid - false dawns or wishful thinking. The downside risks of a full on Covid severe wave are not insignificant this autumn if millions get infected as with little or no restrictions. Currently we are seeing  c. 700 - 800 / day hospitalizations with the summer good weather and a warm September (and most vaccinated). It won't take much of a 'case' increase or wave to put that up by an order of magnitude if its allowed to rip.

As we all know there are non-zero linkages between cases and hospitalizations/deaths including those already vaccinated. Simply it's a numbers game. A very small 0.0X% of a very large number can still be a very large overwhelming number! On that basis alone we must have contingency plans ready.

Those thinking its already 'gone away' or can be ignored I think said the same last summer. My own opinion is that we will likely suffer quite a severe 'sting in the tail' with Covid this autumn/winter as it burns through the population at large (we will all be infected vaccinated or otherwise) and only then next Spring will it start to truly abate.

My last post beyond noting the sudden rapid increase in Zoe numbers was simply to try and explain the apparent delayed increase in school kids testing positive - simply the doubling time coupled with a high general background case 'noise' floor which obscured what was really happening in the headline numbers. 

Edited September 30, 2021 by Yellow Fever
Zoe now just under 61,000

[Aggy 747]

3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Are you being deliberately offensive and argumentative, misinterpreting my quite frankly mainstream position? Please desist, it's immature and adds nothing to the debate.

Everybody in the mainstream expects some sort of 'spike' or wave this autumn - first as we are seeing in the school kids and then spreading to others. The questions is only how serious it will be and the effect upon the NHS. Most expects quite a 'bumpy' ride. I am simply not blasé about it and treat Covid with the seriousness it deserves.

I’m not being anything. You continuously post about infection numbers. I asked what your view was on how that would affect hospitalisations and deaths, or whether you thought infections alone were all that was important. Most mainstream people do indeed refer to how that will affect the NHS and deaths - something you hadn’t mentioned for a large number of posts, hence my query as to what point you were trying to make.

A shame you have to make things nasty every time anyone asks what you’re talking about.

[ricardo 7,328]

National

36,480 -137

rate of increase 6.4% .(7 days) 4th day of decline plus deaths -13.9% and admissions -13.7% now headed down.

 

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     253  up 33% but from low numbers

15 patients in the N&N  28th Sept ( Down from 16 on previous report))

 

Vax

1st Dose      31,539             89.8% done                 Norwich numbers   77% 

2nd Dose     33,093             82.5% done                                                     71%

In Hospital

29-09-2021	6,853
28-09-2021	6,992
27-09-2021	7,013
26-09-2021	6,782
25-09-2021	6,926
24-09-2021	6,891
23-09-2021	7,145
22-09-2021	7,397

[ricardo 7,328]

ZOE up sharply but everything else stable or tailing off.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

ZOE up sharply but everything else stable or tailing off.

Thanks - we've all been expecting an increase after the return to school and if that is levelling off as per the PCR daily tests that's promising, but if the Zoe app is showing some sort of a steeper increase we will need to be wary.  Recently I've felt the Zoe app has been less useful as an indicator, generally it has been the PCR tests and then (after the delay) the ONS numbers that are a better guide, but as always we have to wait a bit and see.

 

Also if new cases are largely in the 5-19 age group, we would expect relatively low numbers of hospital admissions, unless/until it then spreads from them to their parents.

[Aggy 747]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

 

 

Also if new cases are largely in the 5-19 age group, we would expect relatively low numbers of hospital admissions, unless/until it then spreads from them to their parents.

My guess is that the next big spike in infections will be uni students, who have only been back a week or so (if at all yet). You’d expect the movement from them to their parents/grandparents to be less than for school age kids.

In other news, third jabs also started up in the NW today after the NHS invites out last week. 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

14 minutes ago, Aggy said:

My guess is that the next big spike in infections will be uni students, who have only been back a week or so (if at all yet). You’d expect the movement from them to their parents/grandparents to be less than for school age kids.

In other news, third jabs also started up in the NW today after the NHS invites out last week. 

Yep - this will be another key point.  Someone quoted a stat not too long ago that 75% of (I think) 18-25s have had Covid already, in which case this time around should be much better.  Fingers crossed.

[Yellow Fever 3,733]

Tim Spector's latest epistle which I think should be titled 'IF'

 

Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app, comments on the latest data:

“While the latest ZOE data shows new cases are up on last week, it’s encouraging to see national hospitalisation rates falling as we approach winter. While most cases are still in the young, we’re seeing infections being passed up the generational ladder, likely from school children to their parents. Most of these new adult infections are in the under 50s, who still have a relatively low risk of being admitted to hospital, especially if they’ve been fully vaccinated.

As the winter approaches, it’s important parents of school-aged children and students don’t pass the virus on to more vulnerable grandparents by not recognising simple cold-like symptoms as a possible COVID infection. This is a critical time and a little caution could make all the difference in avoiding a winter crisis for hospitals.” 

[sonyc 5,481]

A quick note here to mention that the under 65 groups can now get their flu jab (had mine this morning as saw the chalk sign outside the pharmacy - a walk-in). The 50-64 group with no health conditions are invited as well as other groups of people.

With the third booster programme starting we will be a very vaccinated society!

[Well b back 3,180]

The latest treatment. This is of course unvaccinated and those with bad immune systems and needs to be taken quickly once symptoms are shown.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58764440