Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,349]

16 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

yep I think at this level, context is needed on those 150 daily deaths and just how avoidable they were... were those people vaccinated? Did those people have other strong comorbodities? How old were they?

If its 150 innocent little otherwise healthy kids dying then it's a different story altogether.

Sure, if we get back to 1k/2k deaths a day again then we have an issue.

As you can see, very few under 60's have anything to worry about and kids virtually nothing at all. Elderly are doing most of the dying from Covid.

[ricardo 7,349]

National

34,460 - 166

rate of decrease 0.4% .(7 days)

possibly a delayed school age testing effect                  5-19 up 5% everyone else down 2%

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     193.4   - 6.2%

 

Vax

1st Dose      26,989             89.5% done                 Norwich numbers   76.9%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     43,433                82% done                                                69.9%

In Hospital

21-09-2021	7,567
20-09-2021	7,753
19-09-2021	7,708
18-09-2021	7,662
17-09-2021	7,879
16-09-2021	8,091
15-09-2021	8,377
14-09-2021	8,378

Edited September 22, 2021 by ricardo

[kick it off 1,948]

800 kids in my school - over 100 currently off with confirmed cases of Covid. I know another local school of similar size has 130 off with confirmed cases.

Shocking that this is being ignored by the media - the disruption to education is unbelievable.

i'm double jabbed and presume most colleagues are, I'm not worried about us but sincerely hope none of the kids or their families get ill. 

How the **** are the kids meant to "catch up" if they're off school because the government decided to just let it rip and remove most of the safeguards? 

[ricardo 7,349]

1 minute ago, kick it off said:

800 kids in my school - over 100 currently off with confirmed cases of Covid. I know another local school of similar size has 130 off with confirmed cases.

Shocking that this is being ignored by the media - the disruption to education is unbelievable.

i'm double jabbed and presume most colleagues are, I'm not worried about us but sincerely hope none of the kids or their families get ill. 

How the **** are the kids meant to "catch up" if they're off school because the government decided to just let it rip and remove most of the safeguards? 

Since we are all going to get it eventually, allowing the section that is in least danger become exposed is exactly what the JCVI have in mind apparently.

[Indy 3,286]

10 minutes ago, kick it off said:

800 kids in my school - over 100 currently off with confirmed cases of Covid. I know another local school of similar size has 130 off with confirmed cases.

Shocking that this is being ignored by the media - the disruption to education is unbelievable.

i'm double jabbed and presume most colleagues are, I'm not worried about us but sincerely hope none of the kids or their families get ill. 

How the **** are the kids meant to "catch up" if they're off school because the government decided to just let it rip and remove most of the safeguards? 

what safeguards have they removed from schools? Surely schools still implement a risk assessment and test, so what’s changed to make you so angry? Isn’t it better than locking down schools again?

Edited September 22, 2021 by Indy

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

Sarah Gilbert speaking about the future of Covid in the Telegraph:

 

Dame Sarah Gilbert said Covid-19 will eventually become like other seasonal coronaviruses which cause the common cold 

Covid is unlikely to mutate into a much deadlier variant because there “aren’t many places for the virus to go”, the lead scientist of the Oxford vaccine has said.

Dame Sarah Gilbert said that viruses tend to become less virulent over time as they spread through a population which is becoming more immune.

Although Dame Sarah said some genetic drift was to be expected, she said Covid-19 will eventually become like other seasonal coronaviruses which cause the common cold and respiratory infections.

Speaking on a Royal Society of Medicine webinar about variants on Wednesday, Dame Sarah said: “The virus can’t completely mutate because its spike protein has to interact with the ACE2 receptor on the surface of the human cell, in order to get inside that cell.

“If it changes its spike protein so much that it can’t interact with that receptor, then it’s not going to be able to get inside the cell. So there aren’t very many places for the virus to go to have something that will evade immunity but still be a really infectious virus.”

She added: “We normally see that viruses become less virulent as they circulate more easily and there is no reason to think we will have a more virulent version of Sars-CoV-2.

“We tend to see slow genetic drift of the virus and there will be gradual immunity developing in the population as there is to all the other seasonal coronaviruses. There are four of them and they’ve been circulating for decades and we’re not even aware of them.

“So we already live with four different human coronaviruses that we don’t really ever think about very much and eventually Sars-CoV-2 will become one of those. The question of how long it’s going to take to get there and what measures we’re going to have to take to manage it in the meantime.”

So far, virus variants which looked like they might be more virulent and evade immunity have been out-competed by the delta variant, which is far more infectious.

Prof Sharon Peacock, the director of the Covid-19 UK Genomics Consortium, which monitors variants for the Government, also told the webinar: “It’s watch and wait, but delta is top of the list and other variants are not particularly concerning at the moment.

“It has been pretty quiet since delta emerged and it would be nice to think there won’t be any new variants of concern. If I was pushed to predict, I think there will be new variants emerging over time and I think there is still quite a lot of road to travel down with this virus.”

Prof Peacock said that it was important to genetically sequence people who became ill after travelling to check that new variants were not being imported into Britain as they were the “canary in the coal mine”.

However, she said that vaccinating as many people as possible around the world was the best way to prevent the emergence of worrying mutations.

“If we don’t vaccinate people and there is uncontrolled transmission and infection, then that is the right training ground for the virus to really emerge. That is a real variant of concern,” she added.

“If we don’t have very much infection, then the virus doesn’t have much chance to mutate. So vaccination of the world is not only the morally right thing to do, but the strategically right thing to do if we are going to protect the world. Sequencing travellers are the canary in the coal mine as they will be where new variants are emerging.”

Prof Peacock also said she had not completely ruled out that the virus had been engineered or had leaked from a lab.

“There is reason to think the virus did emerge from an animal host,” she said. “I haven’t seen any definitive evidence it is an engineered virus or escaped. But what this virus has taught me is to be humble when I’m wrong, and I’ve been wrong quite a few times and have had to become nimble in changing my mind.

“So if further evidence comes along that shows the virus as being engineered, I would be willing to consider that. But at the moment, in my view it has arisen from an animal.”

[kick it off 1,948]

30 minutes ago, Indy said:

what safeguards have they removed from schools? Surely schools still implement a risk assessment and test, so what’s changed to make you so angry? Isn’t it better than locking down schools again?

All the recommendations re: masks etc have been removed, so all we can do is suggest. Testing is not mandatory, it's optional and done out of school so the numbers actually doing it are miniscule. Our local authority has told us we now need to test all the kids next week - seems like shutting the stable door long after the horse has bolted tbh.

I'm not a fan of locking down schools again, but the disruption to education is greater at the moment as teachers are now trying to set work online and teach kids in class, at least in my school anyway. There's not enough hours in the day to do this effectively, so the ones at home are not getting anywhere near the same level of teaching. They then come in and don't know the stuff that the other kids have already learned so you're either repeating for kids who weren't there, or just hoping they picked up enough to keep up. Kids who have Covid aren't working and many who don't have any symptoms but are positive, are also not working. Fine if the numebrs are small but chasing up 100+ kids for 5 lessons per day worth of work is just a losing battle.

[Indy 3,286]

11 minutes ago, kick it off said:

All the recommendations re: masks etc have been removed, so all we can do is suggest. Testing is not mandatory, it's optional and done out of school so the numbers actually doing it are miniscule. Our local authority has told us we now need to test all the kids next week - seems like shutting the stable door long after the horse has bolted tbh.

I'm not a fan of locking down schools again, but the disruption to education is greater at the moment as teachers are now trying to set work online and teach kids in class, at least in my school anyway. There's not enough hours in the day to do this effectively, so the ones at home are not getting anywhere near the same level of teaching. They then come in and don't know the stuff that the other kids have already learned so you're either repeating for kids who weren't there, or just hoping they picked up enough to keep up. Kids who have Covid aren't working and many who don't have any symptoms but are positive, are also not working. Fine if the numebrs are small but chasing up 100+ kids for 5 lessons per day worth of work is just a losing battle.

Fair enough I thought each authority had the right to implement mandatory mask wearing in schools and testing as required. Poor in my book, as Ricardo said I think he’s right. 

[Well b back 3,190]

The latest Pfizer / Moderna info is interesting and explains why boosters are Pfizer or 1/2 Moderna. Looks like US going with Moderna.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/22/health/covid-moderna-pfizer-vaccines.html

[Well b back 3,190]

For those especially that followed the COS thread, the missing link to ending the pandemic will need a cure. Is it finally here and who would have thought Llama’s,Camels and nanobodies ( good job it’s not 1st of April ) could come to the rescue. The initial results are now a published paper.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-58628689

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

9 hours ago, Well b back said:

For those especially that followed the COS thread, the missing link to ending the pandemic will need a cure. Is it finally here and who would have thought Llama’s,Camels and nanobodies ( good job it’s not 1st of April ) could come to the rescue. The initial results are now a published paper.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-58628689

Thanks @Well b back that’s definitely what we want to hear, let’s hope they can get it into use for people soon.

[Van wink 2,994]

A very encouraging view about variants and virulence from Dame Sarah yesterday

“Covid is unlikely to mutate into a much deadlier variant because there “aren’t many places for the virus to go”, the lead scientist behind the Oxford vaccine has said.
Dame Sarah Gilbert said that viruses tended to become less virulent over time as they spread through a population which was becoming more immune.
Although Dame Sarah said some genetic drift was to be expected, she said Covid-19 would eventually become like other seasonal coronaviruses which cause the common cold and respiratory infections.
Speaking on a Royal Society of Medicine webinar about variants on Wednesday, Dame Sarah said: “The virus can’t completely mutate because its spike protein has to interact with the ACE2 receptor on the surface of the human cell, in order to get inside that cell.
“If it changes its spike protein so much that it can’t interact with that receptor, then it’s not going to be able to get inside the cell. So there aren’t very many places for the virus to go to have something that will evade immunity but still be a really infectious virus.”
She added: “We normally see that viruses become less virulent as they circulate more easily and there is no reason to think we will have a more virulent version of Sars-CoV-2.
“We tend to see slow genetic drift of the virus and there will be gradual immunity developing in the population as there is to all the other seasonal coronaviruses. There are four of them and they’ve been circulating for decades and we’re not even aware of them.
“So we already live with four different human coronaviruses that we don’t really ever think about very much and eventually Sars-CoV-2 will become one of those. The question of how long it’s going to take to get there and what measures we’re going to have to take to manage it in the meantime.”
So far, virus variants which looked like they might be more virulent and evade immunity have been out-competed by the delta variant, which is more infectious.”

[Indy 3,286]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

A very encouraging view about variants and virulence from Dame Sarah yesterday

“Covid is unlikely to mutate into a much deadlier variant because there “aren’t many places for the virus to go”, the lead scientist behind the Oxford vaccine has said.
Dame Sarah Gilbert said that viruses tended to become less virulent over time as they spread through a population which was becoming more immune.
Although Dame Sarah said some genetic drift was to be expected, she said Covid-19 would eventually become like other seasonal coronaviruses which cause the common cold and respiratory infections.
Speaking on a Royal Society of Medicine webinar about variants on Wednesday, Dame Sarah said: “The virus can’t completely mutate because its spike protein has to interact with the ACE2 receptor on the surface of the human cell, in order to get inside that cell.
“If it changes its spike protein so much that it can’t interact with that receptor, then it’s not going to be able to get inside the cell. So there aren’t very many places for the virus to go to have something that will evade immunity but still be a really infectious virus.”
She added: “We normally see that viruses become less virulent as they circulate more easily and there is no reason to think we will have a more virulent version of Sars-CoV-2.
“We tend to see slow genetic drift of the virus and there will be gradual immunity developing in the population as there is to all the other seasonal coronaviruses. There are four of them and they’ve been circulating for decades and we’re not even aware of them.
“So we already live with four different human coronaviruses that we don’t really ever think about very much and eventually Sars-CoV-2 will become one of those. The question of how long it’s going to take to get there and what measures we’re going to have to take to manage it in the meantime.”
So far, virus variants which looked like they might be more virulent and evade immunity have been out-competed by the delta variant, which is more infectious.”

Posted above by RTB….but very good news and as I’ve been saying since the start as my toxicology friend said from day one. Viruses 🦠 tend to mutate to become more contagious but less of killer.

Edited September 23, 2021 by Indy

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

8 minutes ago, Indy said:

Posted above by RTB….but very good news and as I’ve been saying since the start as my toxicology friend said from day one. Viruses 🦠 tend to mutate to become more contagious but less of killer.

Without knowing about the 100 or so who are shown as dying each day, do we know if they are the vulnerable or is a large percentage those not inoculated?

Or what I am asking is are people dying of covid or with covid.

[Indy 3,286]

11 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Without knowing about the 100 or so who are shown as dying each day, do we know if they are the vulnerable or is a large percentage those not inoculated?

Or what I am asking is are people dying of covid or with covid.

Keelan I asked the same question as I’ve said my great uncle died of a heart attack but got a positive Covid test about 5 days before. Some said it’ll be registered as died with 28 days of having Covid, but I don’t really know the measure as you question.

[Van wink 2,994]

30 minutes ago, Indy said:

Posted above by RTB….but very good news and as I’ve been saying since the start as my toxicology friend said from day one. Viruses 🦠 tend to mutate to become more contagious but less of killer.

Apologies, missed this above, but yes good news

[Indy 3,286]

20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Apologies, missed this above, but yes good news

None needed, it is indeed great news and looks like we’ll have enough measures to get back to a real level of normality in 2022. Then we can start to concentrate on the real issue of climate change…….if it’s not one thing it’s your mother 😂👍

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

Keelan I asked the same question as I’ve said my great uncle died of a heart attack but got a positive Covid test about 5 days before. Some said it’ll be registered as died with 28 days of having Covid, but I don’t really know the measure as you question.

Six of one half a dozen of the other. Certainly some 'Covid' related deaths within 28 days are attributable to other events (many a heart attack would actually have been triggered by Covid related issues - gasping, asphyxia etc. putting increased pressure on the heart), equally many post 28 day events are also attributable to Covid but might not be registered as such.

It's a measure. No more no less. The true figures will be estimated (note estimate - its a statistical measure) with hindsight.

[ricardo 7,349]

National

36,710 - 182

rate of increase 9.4% .(7 days) first uptick in a while

possibly a delayed school age testing effect                  5-19 up 5% everyone else down 2% (see graph in next post)

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     198.3   + 0.3%

16 patients in the N&N  21st Sept ( Down from 33 on previous report)

 

Vax

1st Dose      29,462             89.6% done                 Norwich numbers   76.9%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     44,065             82.1% done                                                     70%

 

In Hospital ( continues to drop away. This should continue as admission still headed downwards)

21-09-2021	7,588
20-09-2021	7,765
19-09-2021	7,718
18-09-2021	7,671
17-09-2021	7,887
16-09-2021	8,097
15-09-2021	8,382
14-09-2021	8,383

Edited September 23, 2021 by ricardo

[ricardo 7,349]

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

5 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Without knowing about the 100 or so who are shown as dying each day, do we know if they are the vulnerable or is a large percentage those not inoculated?

Or what I am asking is are people dying of covid or with covid.

Good question.  Back earlier in the pandemic it seemed clear some groups were much more vulnerable, and @ricardo has posted a chart recently showing it's still very much concentrated among the older, but I've not seen any wider discussion on this area at all, for ages, about factors other than age.

[Van wink 2,994]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

National

36,710 - 182

rate of increase 9.4% .(7 days) first uptick in a while

 

I've heard of more acquaintances testing positive in the last few days than at any time during the pandemic

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

ONS infection survey (to the18th September). 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/24september2021

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

17 hours ago, Van wink said:

I've heard of more acquaintances testing positive in the last few days than at any time during the pandemic

Same here but its a little anecdotal.

[Van wink 2,994]

3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Same here but its a little anecdotal.

Absolutely, Zoe on the up again

[ricardo 7,349]

National

31,348 - 122

rate of increase 13.4% .(7 days)

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     206.8  

16 patients in the N&N  21st Sept ( Down from 33 on previous report)

 

Vax

1st Dose      29,963             89.6% done                 Norwich numbers   77%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     43,801             82.2% done                                                     70.3%

In Hospital

23-09-2021	7,124
22-09-2021	7,378
21-09-2021	7,599
20-09-2021	7,774
19-09-2021	7,727
18-09-2021	7,679
17-09-2021	7,893
16-09-2021	8,101

[ricardo 7,349]

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

On 24/09/2021 at 16:43, Van wink said:

Absolutely, Zoe on the up again

Yes, sadly as expected - over 50,000 today. Next wave building.

What we all forget is that the doubling time in unprotected groups is still likely of the order of 10 days - so in the largely unvaccinated school children it takes a few weeks to get going again - and with a high background count already, appear above the noise.

I saw separately that many schools are now having significant issues.

 

Edited September 26, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Aggy 752]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes, sadly as expected - over 50,000 today. Next wave building.

What we all forget is that the doubling time in unprotected groups is still likely of the order of 10 days - so in the largely unvaccinated school children it takes a few weeks to get going again - and with a high background count already, appear above the noise.

I saw separately that many schools are now having significant issues.

 

How do you predict that’s going to affect hospitalisations and deaths?

I only ask as you’ve made about forty posts re infections since you last even mentioned them. Curious as to your predictions (and just checking you haven’t forgotten about them).

[ricardo 7,349]

National

32,417 - 58

rate of increase 15.4% .(7 days)

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     213.8  up 31%

16 patients in the N&N  21st Sept ( Down from 33 on previous report)

 

Vax

1st Dose      22,540            89.6% done                 Norwich numbers   77%  (recalibrated due to 16+ now eligible)

2nd Dose     46,517             82.3% done                                                     70.4%

In Hospital

23-09-2021	7,124
22-09-2021	7,378
21-09-2021	7,599
20-09-2021	7,774
19-09-2021	7,727
18-09-2021	7,679
17-09-2021	7,893
16-09-2021	8,101