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paul moy

Wuhan coronavirus

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Also important to remember that the condition is mild for the majority of people. The Chinese are only reporting the severe cases and the death rate based on severe cases The death rate will increase on those severe cases as more die but is offset by the number of mild cases that go unreported.
 

The infection and death rate are higher than flu but the condition is generally milder than flu for the young and healthy so it’s consequences are likely to much less than Spanish flu which had a higher death Rate and impacted the young.

It is potentially serious and disruptive at least for the next year until a vaccine can be implemented but it is important as the WHO notes to keep this in perspective. We will all die at some point but some particularly the elderly and those with a relevant health condition will die earlier than they otherwise would. 

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https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51676600

some more logical and informed financial advice. It is a logical fallacy to think you can beat the market as the market has more information and can respond more quickly than the individual and the timings to get in and out are impossible to predict. Investing makes sense as a long term strategy and it is important to have a diversified portfolio invested across various types of assets over time to avoid impact of short term market fluctuations. Pensions in particular are a sensible investment given the tax breaks. 
 

playing the market  short term is a fools game. Sometimes you will get it right and think it is down to you when in reality it is luck given you have less info and speed than the market but you are also just as likely to get it wrong. 

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Health officials are trying to discover how a man from Surrey caught coronavirus, after he became the first person to be infected within the UK.

Not playing fair at all this virus

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9 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Tick tock.

According to Sky the 15% has become 20%, it gets better and better 😳

“The World Health Organisation (WHO) says about 80% of those who have signs of COVID-19 show mild symptoms, about 20% are seriously or critically affected, and about 2% die.”

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Italian Serie A games now not being played let alone behind closed doors. If two cyclists in UAE can take it with them, then travel for Italians is becoming a problem.

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Army mobilised in South Korea and some unexplained cases in the US🤔

Be interesting to see how Mr Trump bull****s his way out of this one when the bleeding obvious emerges and he is forced to exit his world of alternative reality.

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13 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Italian Serie A games now not being played let alone behind closed doors. If two cyclists in UAE can take it with them, then travel for Italians is becoming a problem.

More and more likely that we won't see the season out in Europe.

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It is important to go to a reliable news sources or better the actual official news source. They don’t know the actual rate of severe cases and death rate because covid 19 is mild for the majority of people and does not get reported.  Scaremongering from those with no actual k owledgr experience or medical qualifications is not helpful.  Take your views from experts with  knowledge experience and qualifications based  on facts and evidence and ignore the charlatans on social media with no experience or qualifications who deluded themselves and like to delude others. 

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2 hours ago, T said:

It is important to go to a reliable news sources or better the actual official news source. They don’t know the actual rate of severe cases and death rate because covid 19 is mild for the majority of people and does not get reported.  Scaremongering from those with no actual k owledgr experience or medical qualifications is not helpful.  Take your views from experts with  knowledge experience and qualifications based  on facts and evidence and ignore the charlatans on social media with no experience or qualifications who deluded themselves and like to delude others. 

Watch this, you might learn something from the experts.

It might even save your life.

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While it is important not to panic or sensationalize this, what you also don't need is politicians minimizing the situation - and we have exactly that here in the US. And of course its our friends at Mr. Murdochs propaganda channel that are taking the lead and the President and his sycophants amplifying the craziness. This is NOT what we need, if the 30% or so die hard Republicans buy into this we may be seeing a major problem over here that will be totally self-inflicted. 

NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C. — President Donald Trump on Friday night tried to cast the global outbreak of the coronavirus as a liberal conspiracy intended to undermine his first term, lumping it alongside impeachment and the Mueller investigation.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/28/trump-south-carolina-rally-coronavirus-118269

Some of President Donald Trump's most ardent supporters in media have downplayed concerns about the novel coronavirus this week and misled their audiences by telling them that news organizations and members of the Democratic Party are weaponizing fear in a bid to hurt the President's re-election efforts.

Fox News hosts such as Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham have advanced this conspiratorial line of thinking, as has conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh, among others.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/27/media/coronavirus-hannity-ingraham-limbaugh/index.html

Edited by Surfer

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39 minutes ago, ricardo said:

This will backfire on Trump.

He aint going to be able to BS this one.

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Thank you Ricardo I’m glad that you have finallly agreed with me for once that it makes sense to rfollow expert advice.
 

I had a quick look while the link was working  and I’m fine with WHO PHE BBC and Guardian rather than some more distant reporting which attempts to sensationalise for click revenue.  I’m not sure how that will save my life over and above following general medical advice. My work in addition has already said it is not necessary to travel and attend events and I can work from home if I want. This is just normal practice now anyway given improvement in IT. 
 

It is serious and I fully recommend that people educate themselves and follow expert medical advice as I always recommend in life. generally. That is just common sense which clearly majority of people choose to ignore despite the impact on life quality and life expectancy. 

However people are poor at evaluating risk and tend to get over obsessed with what is in the news or near to them rather than the bigger picture. People die of Other things like heart disease and diabetes every year. Unfortunately that does not stop people from ignoring expert medical advice which I generally follow and encourage others to do. These things in particular increase  the risk from Covid 19
 

Hundreds of thousands die from flu every year but people don’t obsess about it  The infection rate and death rate from covid 19 is higher but unlike flu it is possible  to contain it although I suspect  that will change  At the moment you have a far greater risk of dying of flu or other medical conditions  but people are not obsessing about them 

The stats are still evolving  what they don’t capture is those whose conditions are so mild that they don’t get tested   Also the fast majority of tests from people who have had contact with infected have come back negative and the stats in the main centre China are improving  

what your link highlights is that the prognosis for the young as I said is good  Those at risk of dying are generally elderly with existing health conditions  if people are concerned then it is a reminder of the need to follow expert medical advice and live a healthy lifestyle  

if you have chosen to ignore expert advice and not lead a healthy lifestyle. then the expert advice is to arrange a power of attorney and make sure your will is in order  

Mankind recovered from Spanish flu and the death rate was far higher. There will also be substantial efforts to develop a vaccine and Covid 19 is predominantly impacting the elderly and unhealthy. Therefore the longer term prognosis for mankind and financial markets are positive. Those who are gambling on markets short term would be wise to read up from experts on CAPM. EMH and portfolio theory. 
 

Ultimately there are risks in life and we will all die and being paranoid about the latest risk will not serve any purpose  

 


 


 

 

Edited by T

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Thank God for that, now we can all sleep soundly tonight.

Unfortunately its the mildness of the virus in the 80 percent that is the problem since they are asymptomatic and thereby spreading the contagion. The 15 to 20 percent of serious and critical cases will swamp the medical services because the quantity of ICU facilities required is not available in any of the developed countries let alone the underdeveloped.

The authorities will have to do what China has done and those measures will inevitably drastically curtail the economy. Chinese production virtually ceased in February. Over the next two weeks the effects will be clear to everyone. Containment has already failed there are now 61 countries reporting cases.

There is no need to panic but there is a desperate need for people to take this seriously and take the necessary precautions as early as possible.

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I suspect that is the case that it is spreading because it is mild for most people. I suspect that the severe cases are less than 20pc as most people similarly don’t report colds and flu so people with mild conditions will not be reported. 
 

im not sure people are not taking it seriously given the very high news interest , travel restriction tracing and isolation.
 

The US has just reported that the first person to die was old with a serious medical condition. The risk is still currently low. The next year could be rocky but the long term prognosis for the young healthy and mankind is good. 
 

Paranoia and panic will not help and will not change reality.  Follow expert medical advice and follow a healthy life style if you are concerned. Given the high proportion of the UK who are overweight with poor heart health and diabetes it is a timely reminder that is is sensible to follow expert advice if you really care about your health Unfortunately the majority in UK choose to ignore expert advice.
 

US confirming low risk and will be like cold and flu managed at home for most people. 

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2 minutes ago, T said:

The US has just reported that the first person to die was old with a serious medical condition. The risk is still currently low. The next year could be rocky but the long term prognosis for the young healthy and mankind is good. 

ha ha ha ha 

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Hi m not sure why you find the views of the WHO and the US medical Authorities amusing.   This is a serious matter. 

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I agree no need to panic - but exactly what do you think you or anybody else can actually do about it apart from just delay the inevitable? That's not to say we don't need honest leadership - something that Johnson has been criticized for at present.

My guess is that when it becomes widespread - say 2 or 3 weeks a purely pragmatic and logical economic decision will be taken to take it on the chin and return to what will pass as normal with extended periods of sickness accepted absence as needed.

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President Trump just held a Press Conference (Sat 29th) 

He turned up 20 minutes late and spent the first 20 minutes talking about Afghanistan not Crononvirus, however; 

Sympathy to the family of the first person who died in the US overnight. 

Claims victory because they blocked travel from China despite "great opposition".

And on Monday he'll meet with pharmaceutical companies to talk about creating a vaccine.

We have 43 million masks, more than anyone could have imagined. 

 

V.P Pence says they will immediately ; 

 - Add additional travel restriction on Iran. (politically very easy as Iran is already under a travel ban) 

- Ask US State Department to urge Americas to not travel to the areas in Italy and Korea where the virus is most prevalent. (well duh!  - but it's not a ban on travel there)  

- Have contracted with 3M to produce 35 million more masks per month

 

Sec Health and Human Services says:

- We will see more cases, but risk to average American is low. 

- For vast major of infected people the symptoms will be flu like. For other it may involve hospitalization.

- First strategy is to lower the amount of travel to the main areas of infection.

 

Other Senior Official (title not known) 

- We are looking at the cases in Washington State, but the country as a whole remains at low risk. 

- If the President had not banned travel from China we would have a much bigger problem to address. 

 

Second Senior Official (title not known) 

- 22 cases in the US, but these were linked to contact with China. 

- We expect to see additional cases, but the risk to the American public is low. 

 

Questions :

Asked about his "hoax" comments, the President says the hoax was the Democrats criticizing actions taken to date. 

Asked about blocking comments from senior health officials, the President says that is a "a dishonest question". 

Asked about the Souther border the President said yes he is looking at the Southern border (some reports suggest that he would close it) so the answer is ambiguous.

 

So basically the message is - we've got this, there is very little risk.

We'll continue to shut down travel from other countries if their situation worsens.

Edited by Surfer

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4 minutes ago, T said:

Hi m not sure why you find the views of the WHO and the US medical Authorities amusing.   This is a serious matter. 

In a couple of weeks or so you will understand.

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6 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I agree no need to panic - but exactly what do you think you or anybody else can actually do about it apart from just delay the inevitable? That's not to say we don't need honest leadership - something that Johnson has been criticized for at present.

My guess is that when it becomes widespread - say 2 or 3 weeks a purely pragmatic and logical economic decision will be taken to take it on the chin and return to what will pass as normal with extended periods of sickness accepted absence as needed.

We will soon see who is right on this.

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uS medical authorities just confirming what I’ve been saying that currently low risk. and those that at risk are the old and those with serious medical conditions. 

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Sad for the USA that Trump just doesn't get it.

Look back at the worldwide figures excluding China a couple of weeks back and compare them with now. Cases doubling every 4 days.

 

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So you are saying that you know better than the WHO and US medical authorities? Currently it is effecting a low number so is low risk in UK and US. No one is saying that this doesn’t have a potential to seriously escalate so I’m mot sure what your issue is. If you have followed expert advice and led a healthy life style than chances are you could well get sick at some point and should be fine. If you decided not to follow expert advice than you should be concerned. 

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Some countries are deliberately down playing something they have no control over. Trump is in for a big shock.

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So in the follow up Q&A session the primary medical Dr. at the press conference responded to a question about the risk to young healthy people as follows - 

There are 22 cases in the US. (other reports have had this at 60+, so not sure why they are saying 22) 

And the "N", or number, in this country is low but it seems to be following the pattern that other countries have had. Most people who get infected are going to have symptoms like a cold, but about 20% may require hospitalization which could include intensive care. 

He went on to say that the people most likely to die are old people and people with existing conditions. But every now and again there will be someone who is young who will die. And we shouldn't be shocked by that. It happens with all diseases. 

He also said that once you are infected you won't get infected again ( unsure if that's been proven to be true) 

What he didn't contradict (as he didn't comment on this) is the mortally rate may be 2%, (for flu it is typically 0.1%) What he did say was there is no evidence the virus had mutated 

 

>> Personal Aside - IMO there is serious potential for confusion between the statistics quoted for Morbidity (% of population who contract the disease) and Mortality (% of those who die after contracting the disease)

When we have been discussing the flu, Morbidity is high but Mortality is low. Ebola on the other hand had a very low Morbidity precisely because its Mortality was so high. i.e. it kills people before they transmit the disease to others. A "successful virus" needs to have the M's in balance - i.e spread to as many hosts as possible but not cause the hosts to die off. Purely from an evolutionary point of view being non-lethal to healthy hosts and lethal to old or unhealthy hosts may be the ideal balance for both virus and host. Sorry if that sound unsympathetic or even callous <<<

 

Edited by Surfer

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23 minutes ago, T said:

Hi m not sure why you find the views of the WHO and the US medical Authorities amusing.   This is a serious matter. 

ha ha ha ha ha

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