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paul moy

Wuhan coronavirus

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3 hours ago, JF said:

Learn something every day. Today I learnt that “young people” don’t apparently have under lying health issues. Strange as I would consider myself to be relatively young, and if I got this virus I’d very likely be in a lot of trouble with it, given how badly a common cold can affect me

I completely understand your point of view. But I unfortunately still can’t change facts that you or I don’t like. You can only take the recommended advice regarding medication. Exercise as appropriate to maximise your lung function and eat a healthy diet to avoid other conditions and limit the strain on your breathing. It doesn’t make it nice. It doesn’t mean I don’t care but it also doesn’t change the facts. 

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2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

How about - No crisis should go to waste...

Precisely. Might be a good time to reevaluate the whole shoddy way we've been doing things. 

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, ricardo said:
The USA has only just begun testing in any quantity. Watch thenumbers.

 

Very true. We just do not know and there is a strong smell of coverup and incompetence. 
 

UK NHS on the other hand reporting that from just under 14,000 test results only 51 positive. Just one data point and I do not know what the criteria for initiating a test was - every day for ER nurses? 
 

If you rush to apply this rate to the general population (much too early to do so) at 2% estimated mortality if you test positive = 0..008% chance of dying of this for the general population. Over 50 million that’s 4,000 people. 

Just one data point. There will be more soon. 

Edited by Surfer

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Worst case figured based on report on govt announcement today assuming 80pc infected.50pc infections and 1pc death rate would be 256k compared to 541k deaths in 2018. 

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Posted (edited)

What do you think they will do with the 15 percent serious cases that need hospitalisation and the 8 percent critical who require ICU?

Edited by ricardo

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Iran’s ambassador to the UK says Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe @freeNazanin, the British charity worker & hostage, will be allowed to leave prison to join her family in Tehran. A spokesman for Iran’s judiciary insists she is in good health after fears she had the Corona virus.

 

 

 

9

 

Some good news if true.

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I suspect that is a leading question. Boris says we will cope but just 8 out of 1600 doctors think so  I think I know who is more trustworthy but. to be fair Boris is good at saying what people want to hear and I don’t think the truth is going to help in this case. Decisions on resourcing and staff have an effect  

Get some Chinese builders in. My perception was that their initial reaction was poor but subsequent reaction impressive 

I think they will reallocate resources as best they can and they will have modelled numbers for different scenarios but I suspect there will be difficult decisions to be made given the lack of detail made public to date. I haven’t seen any convincing reports on the ability to cope.  severe cases do not look pleasant and I’m under no illusion that any amount of private medical insurance will change the resources available. 
 

There is no good about this unless you take a very cynical actuarial view of the world. just a question about how bad. 

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I don't think any country on earth has the necessary medical facilities for this. The so called Hospitals built in two weeks in China were in effect merely isolation centres. The high figures in Wuhan show what happens when local facilities get over run. Seasonal flu only requires hospitalisation for about .02 percent of infections, this thing is of a different magnitude.

The situation in Iran must be desperate, they are now releasing 54k prisoners from the jails.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, ricardo said:

The situation in Iran must be desperate, they are now releasing 54k prisoners from the jails.

Hospitals, prisons and military barracks all incubators for rapid spread of diseases. Mainly due to overcrowding in the latter two cases. At least that was the lesson from the flu pandemic of 1918.

BTW the reason that pandemic picked up the term Spanish Flu is that Spain was the only major European county not involved in WW1, and so did not have censorship in place to hide the facts because of "morale". SO the majority of reported cases were in Spain.... meanwhile the US were sending troop ships to France packed with soldiers despite outbreaks of the deadly virus on-board.

Edited by Surfer

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Herman posted a very good link concerning Spanish Flu earlier in this thread, well worth a read.

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There might be some rich oil countries with surplus capacity and the likes of France and Germany spend more but I agree that health care systems are simple not designed to cope with relatively rare extreme events. 

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I see that the linear scale total cases graph has become steeper again, I guess that 14ish day incubation period is responsible.

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Posted (edited)

This ain’t going to end well, an oddly high mortality rate, presumably because testing in the US is a disaster.
 

Reuters 

Washington state Department of Health reports total number of confirmed #coronavirus cases now stands at 27, including nine deaths, up from 18 cases and six deaths on Monday”

Edited by Van wink

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27 minutes ago, Van wink said:

This ain’t going to end well, an oddly high mortality rate, presumably because testing in the US is a disaster.
 

Reuters 

Washington state Department of Health reports total number of confirmed #coronavirus cases now stands at 27, including nine deaths, up from 18 cases and six deaths on Monday”

If you don't test you don't have many cases.

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3 hours ago, T said:

There might be some rich oil countries with surplus capacity and the likes of France and Germany spend more but I agree that health care systems are simple not designed to cope with relatively rare extreme events. 

France and Germany will hit the explosive stage in the next few days.

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3 hours ago, ricardo said:

Italy

466 new cases

27 new deaths.

All deaths of old people with serious illnesses

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19 minutes ago, ricardo said:

France and Germany will hit the explosive stage in the next few days.

Looks highly likely but potentially some more capacity to cope than UK. 

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Ive posted stat related figures a couple times but ive read T's latest few posts and what he tries to say does have some merit. Lets look at the epicenter of this virus, Wuhan city, 11 mill population and Hubei province in general, where the vast majority of Chinese infections and deaths have occured. One of course has to consider the strict and extreme measures that the Chinese authorities have taken  to help curb the spread of infection but even so...Hubei province has a 2020 estimate of 60 million people, which is actually just a bit short of the whole UK population...they have lived with this virus the best part of 2 months now...around 80k  have been infected with roughly 2500 deaths. That leaves approx 59 mill and 920 thousand who have not been infected. Also, in that 2 months, i wonder how many of the province have died from natural causes, other illnesses, unforseen circumstances, old age etc etc.

The UK government, along with the medical chiefs today  brought us a worst case scenario...with 80% of the whole UK population being infected at some point...over 6 months...roughly 2-3 months for the infection peak then another 2-3 months for the tapering off. But yes its a worst case scenario. Again, even allowing for the extreme measures the Chinese have taken in Wuhan and Hubei, its been the epicentre of the virus, yet after two months theyre a million miles away from having anything like an 80% infection rate.

Of course there are some other nasty infected areas around the globe, Italy especially are feeling the worst of it right now, but as of right now a balance does need to be put into our brains about this and in anycase all we can do is take a day at a time. Que Sera Sera.

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Meanwhile our crack US team are on the case of a vaccine - 3 days says Sec Azar, 12+ months says Dr Fauci while Trump watches. 

So today's Press Conference is photos only, no-one can record audio or video, presumably so there can be no contradictory videos? 

Azar.jpg

Fauci.jpg

VP.jpg

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11 hours ago, ricardo said:

If you don't test you don't have many cases.

Exactly

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Essjayess. Fully agree with you on this and your previous post. And credit. for playing the ball rather the man. People can find common ground if they want. I’m just running the numbers. None of this is good  

And no doubt there are medical actuaries with more info who are running far more sophisticated numbers on which decisions are being made which are not being shared as it is a difficult subject. 
 

The rate in Hubei are low and I suspect the UK and US will not and could not impose such restrictions given the different regimes which will lead to higher rates. It is an impossible balancing act  between keeping things going for the vast majority versus reducing the risk of a small minority. But governments and medics are making actuarial cost of life decisions based on models all the time. Of course this is horrible and devastating for those affected. 

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10 hours ago, T said:

All deaths of old people with serious illnesses

And your point is?

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Just facts. That all deaths in Italy to date have been of old people with serious illnesses   Governments, medical experts and the economy and markets will make decisions relating to those and other facts. The UK govt by reference to facts and expert advice has decided not to impose restrictions at this stage eg a releatively relaxed approach in the UK to closing schools as the risk for children appears to be very low. The facts are not nice but they are what they are and I can’t change them and I’m not making the decisions. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, T said:

Just facts. That all deaths in Italy to date have been of old people with serious illnesses  

They are indeed facts, I doubt anyone reading this thread needs to be reminded who the most vulnerable groups are in relation to Corona. I was relating your facts to the view you posted earlier, quoted below, and the bigotry you express. I was wondering if you are now concerned about elderly people and those with ill health?

“This is primarily killing the old and people with lifestyle illnesses. The older generation have said that they don’t care about issues which younger people care about like freedom off movement and climate change and have shown no concern for refugeees or immigrants or other religions or races so the young are questioning why they should be concerned about a generationthat’s shown a blatant disregard for them and other people.”

Edited by Van wink

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Has this been linked here yet?

"Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, predicts that between 40 to 70 percent of adults in the world will become infected with the coronavirus."

He cited 1-2% mortality rate for adult population with current knowledge. It is hair raising.

The reality has yet to sink in. I don't even know what to think about this, and I've been observing this closely since January. In USA, 1% mortality with 50% getting infected means well over a million excess deaths over the course of the disease. If it happens within a year, we're talking about the rate of dying in the hundreds of thousands per month towards turn of 2020/2021 (due to exponential spread weighed heavily towards late 2020, early 2021) before enough have contracted it to have created sufficient herd immunity to slow the spread and turning the disease into more endemic localized outbreaks.

We can do our part by being extremely dutiful and vigilant in hand sanitizing, washing hands with soap, being responsible in where and how much you move, self-guaranteening if you suspect you got it (2 weeks is probably too short, go for 3 weeks to be sure) etc. 

We're going to lose a lot of old folks over this. A family might have 4 grandparents into their 70s, some with significant health problem. That's more than 50% chance overall for losing atleast one of them. They're also uncles, aunts, sisters of your relatives. Every family will have its share of tragedy.  

It's not about the 0.2% mortality for the working age people. It is about the 10 to 20% mortality rate for your grandmom. I know there are many elderly people on this forum too. It is horribly dangerous for many people you love and care about. Get informed. Be responsible. Act accordingly.

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3 minutes ago, Upo said:

Has this been linked here yet?

"Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, predicts that between 40 to 70 percent of adults in the world will become infected with the coronavirus."

He cited 1-2% mortality rate for adult population with current knowledge. It is hair raising.

The reality has yet to sink in. I don't even know what to think about this, and I've been observing this closely since January. In USA, 1% mortality with 50% getting infected means well over a million excess deaths over the course of the disease. If it happens within a year, we're talking about the rate of dying in the hundreds of thousands per month towards turn of 2020/2021 (due to exponential spread weighed heavily towards late 2020, early 2021) before enough have contracted it to have created sufficient herd immunity to slow the spread and turning the disease into more endemic localized outbreaks.

We can do our part by being extremely dutiful and vigilant in hand sanitizing, washing hands with soap, being responsible in where and how much you move, self-guaranteening if you suspect you got it (2 weeks is probably too short, go for 3 weeks to be sure) etc. 

We're going to lose a lot of old folks over this. A family might have 4 grandparents into their 70s, some with significant health problem. That's more than 50% chance overall for losing atleast one of them. They're also uncles, aunts, sisters of your relatives. Every family will have its share of tragedy.  

It's not about the 0.2% mortality for the working age people. It is about the 10 to 20% mortality rate for your grandmom. I know there are many elderly people on this forum too. It is horribly dangerous for many people you love and care about. Get informed. Be responsible. Act accordingly.

That’s terrifying and hopefully a scenario that never materialises 

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

They are indeed facts, I doubt anyone reading this thread needs to be reminded who the most vulnerable groups are in relation to Corona. I was relating your facts to the view you posted earlier, quoted below, and the bigotry you express. I was wondering if you are now concerned about elderly people and those with ill health?

“This is primarily killing the old and people with lifestyle illnesses. The older generation have said that they don’t care about issues which younger people care about like freedom off movement and climate change and have shown no concern for refugeees or immigrants or other religions or races so the young are questioning why they should be concerned about a generationthat’s shown a blatant disregard for them and other people.”

It's harsh undoubtedly and guilty of lumping all of a demographic into one group, but not that untruthful. There were a hell of a lot that laughed off others genuine concerns. 

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