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paul moy

Wuhan coronavirus

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We are an island. We should have shutdown all international passenger traffic a couple of weeks ago. Thank goodness freedom of movement is gone. Oh wait a minute....

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The risk is currently low. No one is saying that doesn’t mean the risk won’t increase so I’m not sure what your issue is. The US has said that there will be more case and they have purchased 40m masks The UK is making contingency plans so no one is saying including myself that this doesn’t have the potential to have serious health and economic impacts. That is just obvious to anyone who understands risk. But why be paranoid  and obsessed unless you have previously ignored expert advice and have health issues   There is nothing you can do other than follow medical advice so I didn’t how being paranoid and panicking helps in anyway. 

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14 minutes ago, Surfer said:

 

What he didn't contradict is mortally may be 2%. What he did say was there is no evidence the virus had mutated 

 

 

30 percent world infection rate

2 percent deaths

Oh dear.

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Again no one is saying that this doesn’t have the potential to infect a lot of people and that people will die. The number of peoples infected in the UK compared to those tested is very low. What you are saying is that 98 to 99 pc will be fine.  Some young and healthy will dies but the risk is predominantly for the old and unhealthy. There may well be serious economic disruption for the next year but society has always previously recovered from health issues in the past. It may be better or worse but paranoia and obsession will not change anything so is pointless. 

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And again to put this in perspective annual mortality rates are about 1pc. Millions of people die every year and the world goes on. It may be Covid 19 or something else but you will die of something. 

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17 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

We are an island. We should have shutdown all international passenger traffic a couple of weeks ago. Thank goodness freedom of movement is gone. Oh wait a minute....

Nothing to stop the UK from closing its borders, or applying restrictions, is there? 

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7 minutes ago, T said:

And again to put this in perspective annual mortality rates are about 1pc. Millions of people die every year and the world goes on. It may be Covid 19 or something else but you will die of something. 

Perhaps you should email president Xi and tell him to cancel the containment because most people will die of something else. Makes you wonder why they even bothered about it. There's plenty of Chinese people left over.

Edited by ricardo

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No where have I said it shouldn’t be taken seriously or is not a potential serious issue or that actions should not be taken so I really don’t know what your issue is. I’m just saying a bit of understanding of risk perspective and the reality of circle of life. We will all die. Being obsessed and paranoid is not a healthy or productive way to spend what remains of our lives. 

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T stop making yourself look foolish. You clearly know very little about this, you are desperately reading up on stuff, not fully understanding it, then regurgitating in a way that clearly shows your lack of comprehension.

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

We will soon see who is right on this.

I think we both are. It's just that panic won't solve anything. My suspicion would be that the virus is already in Norwich .. same as the current suspicion now that it was in northern Italy for several weeks quietly spreading before it exploded and was detected. Lots of people in Italy skiing etc... winter sun, half term and let alone ordinary business travel. May well have spread widely at Carrow Rd. last night. The horse has bolted.

If it hasn't then surely one would close all mass gatherings, sport, schools immediately if it was thought that would stop it but hey don't scare the horses.

Sadly its going to be a very difficult time for all.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, T said:

No where have I said it shouldn’t be taken seriously or is not a potential serious issue or that actions should not be taken so I really don’t know what your issue is. I’m just saying a bit of understanding of risk perspective and the reality of circle of life. We will all die. Being obsessed and paranoid is not a healthy or productive way to spend what remains of our lives. 

where do you draw the line between taking the issue seriously and being paranoid about the issue? You must have some metrics in mind. What actions should be taken and when?

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

30 percent world infection rate

2 percent deaths

Oh dear.

Maybe - but let's assume that is right    30% Morbidity x 2 % Mortality is 6% of total population. 

Clearly Morbidity is not 30% at this time in any area other than perhaps around Wuhan China. 

Edited by Surfer

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2 hours ago, Surfer said:

There are 22 cases in the US. (other reports have had this at 60+, so not sure why they are saying 22) 

It appears they reported 22 by choosing to exclude the 45 citizens infected on the Japanese cruise ship. 

The US woman who just died was not "a medically high risk patient in her late 50's" but a 50 year old man. 

Perhaps not major differences, but it fits a pattern of 'shading to obliterating truth' by this administration.

 

Edited by Surfer

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, ricardo said:

30 percent world infection rate

2 percent deaths

Oh dear.

So if we take your figures which are possible then 99.4pc will not die from Covid 19.   The infection rate could be higher or lower and death rates reported at 1 to 2pc. The highest risk that do will be old and or with serious underlying illnesses.
 

The death rate from Covid 19 is about ten times that of flu   600k die from flu a year so if we say 6m die from Covid 19 that is still less than 0.1pc of the world population 

fI completing agree with you about the potential risks but the world will go on based on your figure albeit possibly without us. 

Edited by T

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My primary source of info is the WHO which seems reasonable as it is the prime source of global Covid 19 information. 

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The infection rate is Hubei is less than 0.1pc and the infection rate in Wuhan is less than 1pc of the population  The overall deaths in Wuhan compared to the population is 0.026pc if we conservatively assumed all China deaths were in Wuhan. Serious. Yes. End of the world No. 

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Ive spent the last month urging people to make some basic preparations.

You can take a horse to water but you cannot make him drink.

 

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The British public not listening to sound advice? Well I never.🤣

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As we have seen the majority of the population think they know best and ignore expert advice. I be been advising against this for years   The majority of the population ignore expert advice on eg brexit and healthy living. The government view has even been that we should ignore expert advice   Ignoring expert advice costs time money and now lives. Hopefully people will learn the lesson but I doubt it. 

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Posted (edited)

 expert advice on eg brexit and healthy living

But it was both sides of the expert advice that wanted in or out of Brexit

Edited by SwindonCanary
  • Haha 1

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Ok these are the latest running stats from Worldometer, globally, for Coronavirus.

Total cases infected confirmed 87,694

Active cases 42,012, of which 7,568 are serious / critical.

Outcome cases...persons either recovered or died.

Recovered 42,687  Deaths 2,995.

Obviously the 42k Active cases have not yet had their outcome detemined. But if you do a % of the deaths from outcome cases then its  definitely higher than 2%.  Make of it what you will.

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12 new cases in the UK, 38 more in Germany, 15 more in Spain.

They have contained it alright, contained it to planet earth.

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Sure. But they have delayed the spread which gives more preparation time and  hopefully allows potential  benefit from warmer weather and a bit closer to the time a vaccine can be developed. 


However it increasingly looks at some point they can seek to restrict and mitigate but will have to let it run it’s course like other viruses. Uk at least has a large service industry which can operate remotely to some extent as I do but next year could be very rocky.

ultimately if it can’t be contained as seems increasingly likely it will be the old story of mankind of the survival of the fitness. The best preparation for people will be to lead a long term healthy life style to avoid the conditions that significantly increase the death rate. Follow expert  advice. 

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Some basic health and safety briefings, advertising, and newspaper articles from the government would be a great idea. 

Like wash your hands, don't bother with facemarks, and requests to not hoard as it's not helping anyone to do so. 

 

- Shutting down the Torygraph propaganda sheet for 6 months would also be a great idea too. 

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