The Positive Brexit Thread

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

6 hours ago, Terminally Yellow said:

"Remoaners". Here we go with the right wing nut job language. If you can't beat them, label them. Its laughable and so predictable. 

I get it. I know supporters of Brexit jump on any single sliver of positivity to justify their hopeless position to themselves. "Yay look at us signing pointless ineffective trade deals". "Let's go back to Imperial, that'll show how much we've taken back control!". "Blue passports! It's just like the 70s".

The truth is much harder to accept when you have to look at the faces of the generations to come and try to explain why you took a decision that has cost them greater financial security and contributed greatly to this country quickly becoming a pale of the economic, political and social leader it was at the turn of this millennium.

Never used to use the term seeing as I was in the remain camp pre-Brexit. Gave it up when it ceased to be a possibility.

We're several years on now and you're making repetitive, borderline hysterical rants like the referendum was yesterday.

If the cap fits, wear it.

Edited July 17, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[dylanisabaddog 5,014]

5 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

It's not fantastic that the number of people who will get to study abroad is down by 18% from Erasmus.

 

But there is the vacuum cleaners..... 

And let's face it, our currency has taken such a kicking that no one could afford to go abroad for education anyway. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by dylanisabaddog

[Herman 9,837]

15 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

But there is the vacuum cleaners..... 

And let's face it, our currency has taken such a kicking that no one could afford to go abroad for education anyway. 

I'd quite happily send brexiters abroad for "education".

[dylanisabaddog 5,014]

3 minutes ago, Herman said:

I'd quite happily send brexiters abroad for "education".

That could be be unwise. They may invade Luxembourg. If they could find it.... 

[A Load of Squit 5,223]

16 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

That could be be unwise. They may invade Luxembourg. If they could find it.... 

It would be the easiest invasion ever, could be done in an afternoon.

[Herman 9,837]

 

[A Load of Squit 5,223]

2 minutes ago, Herman said:

 

Funny how Sky, ITV and the news media in Asia said the same but they're not mentioned.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,839]

35 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

Funny how Sky, ITV and the news media in Asia said the same but they're not mentioned.

 

They are all far to touchy, far too invested in their Brexity myths to tolerate any criticism else the whole edifice will fall.

It simply the 'Kings new clothes syndrome'. They can't admit the truth, most of all unto themselves.

CPTPP is an afterthought, the wooden spoon prize given the failure of all other Brexit positives to materialize. Of course it's better than nothing but certainly not an economic game changer. Indeed, its got more potential negatives built in for the average Brexiteer than positives. As advertised, the major beneficiary will likely be those already highly paid in the financial and digital services whereas those in farming and manufacturing will suffer from more (and cheaper) competition. It's kind of why the US (Trump) pulled out and Biden wont join! Didn't want want to off-shore any more American jobs. 

But then I guess that's still what the average Brexiteer voted for. What were they smoking?

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

They are all far to touchy, far too invested in their Brexity myths to tolerate any criticism else the whole edifice will fall.

It simply the 'Kings new clothes syndrome'. They can't admit the truth, most of all unto themselves.

CPTPP is an afterthought, the wooden spoon prize given the failure of all other Brexit positives to materialize. Of course it's better than nothing but certainly not an economic game changer. Indeed, its got more potential negatives built in for the average Brexiteer than positives. As advertised, the major beneficiary will likely be those already highly paid in the financial and digital services whereas those in farming and manufacturing will suffer from more (and cheaper) competition. It's kind of why the US (Trump) pulled out and Biden wont join! Didn't want want to off-shore any more American jobs. 

But then I guess that's still what the average Brexiteer voted for. What were they smoking?

I think it's a legitimate question as to why so many are focussing on a negative spin regarding CPTPP. This is an RTA that's only a few years old that represents an enormous chunk of global GDP. It has credible prospective new members like South Korea in the offing.

A lot of the narratives about supposed indifference in Asia to our membership are just plain wrong, and obviously so from the gargantuan diplomatic efforts that have been made to get us into the treaty. Apart from anything else, they've all just got preferential access to a G7 net-importing nation with the added benefit of cumulation of supply chains between them in selling to the UK. That alone improves all of their competitive positions against EU suppliers to us, which will only help the situation as far as improving our relationship with the EU is concerned. The idea that they'd consider that a minor thing is laughable.

We were told that the concessions to New Zealand and Australia on agriculture were 'disastrous'. Since then, we've negotiated with Canada without offering the same concessions, but also the noises from the farming community about export prospects on the back of CPTPP are actually looking far better than the picture painted before.

We're just talking about predictions, when all's said and done, which is an area where the europhiles have really failed very badly post-Brexit. Hell, it doesn't seem long ago that I was being told on here that we'd never join CPTPP at all.

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

On 10/11/2021 at 10:54, horsefly said:

You're absolutely right that services (especially financial services) are most important to the UK economy. The fact that, as yet, we haven't got a post-brexit deal with the EU on finacial services is a massive worry. Any arrangement we might make with the CPTPP in this regard would very likely impact negatively on the EU's willingness to give us a good deal regarding our future opportunities in this massively important sector. We have already developed a bad reputation as a main country for allowing tax evasion and money laundering, I'm not convinced that pivoting towards the CPTPP is going to help us rid that reputation. Yet again I get the feeling the rest of the civilised world is moving towards greater probity on such issues (as evidenced by the recent international agreement on company tax minimum) as we move in an orthogonal direction.

Thought it would be good to revisit some of the predictions regarding CPTPP now we're looking at new predictions insisting what a damp squib the whole exercise will be.

The new memorandum of understanding on financial services with the EU coincides very closely with our accession into CPTPP. We know that CPTPP accession was instrumental in third-party countries engaging to arbitrate between the UK and EU over Northern Ireland. This is spun as a 'loss' for the UK in the way it's presented that the UK abandoned the bill over NI, but ultimately it coincided with significant movement from the EU on its previously intransigent position over implementation of the NI protocol.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/eu-and-uk-sign-memorandum-of-8139869/

Quite apart from the direct economic benefits of internal CPTPP trade, which remain to be seen, CPTPP involvement has been tangibly beneficial to improving the UK's position post-Brexit.

Edited July 17, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

3 hours ago, A Load of Squit said:

It's not fantastic that the number of people who will get to study abroad is down by 18% from Erasmus.

 

Article from 2015 in the Guardian about UK students studying abroad:

"Recent Erasmus statistics show that during the 2013-14 academic year, nearly 15,600 UK students spent up to a year in another European country through the initiative, up 115% since 2007."

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/may/28/study-abroad-uk-students-overseas

With the best will in the world, this was a pretty niche thing in the first place.

On the other hand, UK universities have seen a big increase in non-European students and decrease in EU students. The focus of the UK's younger generation will change fast as their own experiences  of other cultures extend more and more outside the EU.

Edited July 17, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[horsefly 4,318]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Thought it would be good to revisit some of the predictions regarding CPTPP now we're looking at new predictions insisting what a damp squib the whole exercise will be.

The new memorandum of understanding on financial services with the EU coincides very closely with our accession into CPTPP. We know that CPTPP accession was instrumental in third-party countries engaging to arbitrate between the UK and EU over Northern Ireland. This is spun as a 'loss' for the UK in the way it's presented that the UK abandoned the bill over NI, but ultimately it coincided with significant movement from the EU on its previously intransigent position over implementation of the NI protocol.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/eu-and-uk-sign-memorandum-of-8139869/

Quite apart from the direct economic benefits of internal CPTPP trade, which remain to be seen, CPTPP involvement has been tangibly beneficial to improving the UK's position post-Brexit.

The government's own figures claim CPTPP membership will yield a gain of £1.8bn over a period of 10-YEARS. The cost of Brexit is estimated to be £100bn EACH year (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-31/brexit-is-costing-the-uk-100-billion-a-year-in-lost-output) 

[Yellow Fever 3,839]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

We're just talking about predictions, when all's said and done, which is an area where the europhiles have really failed very badly post-Brexit. Hell, it doesn't seem long ago that I was being told on here that we'd never join CPTPP at all.

This is an amazing statement !

All the Brexiteers have ever sold us (and CPTPP is the same) is jam tomorrow. Never jam today.

We knew what we had in the EU, a bird in the hand if you like but threw all that away on some magic beans.

Nobody on here is saying the CPTPP is not worthwhile but it is absolutely small beer, loose change as compared to what we've lost and continue to lose as per Horsefly comment.

As to notions promulgated by some that we can never now return for instance to the SM because of CPTPP I guess they have never read their history. Any economist or indeed pro-business government would grab at the chance and likely eventually will.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

This is an amazing statement !

All the Brexiteers have ever sold us (and CPTPP is the same) is jam tomorrow. Never jam today.

We knew what we had in the EU, a bird in the hand if you like but threw all that away on some magic beans.

Nobody on here is saying the CPTPP is not worthwhile but it is absolutely small beer, loose change as compared to what we've lost and continue to lose as per Horsefly comment.

As to notions promulgated by some that we can never now return for instance to the SM because of CPTPP I guess they have never read their history. Any economist or indeed pro-business government would grab at the chance and likely eventually will.

Yes, there was a lot of rubbish in the referendum campaign from both camps.

We knew what we had in the EU, which was fine by me on the whole, but that's gone. If we were offered EU membership tomorrow on the same terms we had before we left, I'd vote for it myself (if I got my vote back), but that's never going to happen. From where we are now, I believe the UK can do better outside the EU than settling for any terms the EU might be prepared to offer, which would never be generous because they could never allow a situation where the UK had caused so much disruption for it. Negotiation with the EU on a case by case basis either bilaterally or in collaboration with CPTPP is the way forward; not membership.

The reality is that there are opportunities from having left the EU; they are being explored and pursued. It's pointless in my view arguing the toss as to whether it will prove for the best in the long run or not compared to where we might have been in a parallel universe where we never left. The course is set, and it's increasingly clear that the course doesn't include needlessly alienating the EU further, but simply balancing interests inside and outside the EU according to our own long-term best interests in the context of a world where Asia is moving towards being economically dominant. Our CPTPP allies will also want to strengthen relations with the EU and there are plenty of noises that the EU itself is interested in moving that way.

Emphasising the short-term effects of CPTPP as the press has been doing is myopic. It's a strategic decision rather than a tactical one. Middle powers need forums for asserting their interests against the power of the US and China. The EU is limited by its geographic scope; CPTPP is a great platform for pulling together the rest to build a new free trade forum in a a world where the WTO is increasingly meaningless; rather than framing CPTPP as a rival to the EU, I would say its very much complementary; that assessment seems well-supported by the positive engagement with the EU surrounding our accession to CPTPP.

https://www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/article/ftas/can-middle-powers-reset-global-trade-through-the-cptpp/

 

Edited July 17, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,837]

"Yes, there was a lot of rubbish in the referendum campaign from both camps."

I believe that statement to be a load of nonsense. One side was nearly all dishonest. The other side is being proved right on a daily basis.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

25 minutes ago, Herman said:

"Yes, there was a lot of rubbish in the referendum campaign from both camps."

I believe that statement to be a load of nonsense. One side was nearly all dishonest. The other side is being proved right on a daily basis.

Remain was dishonest. Where's the cliff edge we were all promised if we did anything other than stay in the single market and customs union and accept being a rule-taker from the EU? How are we being shunned by the world as we were supposed to have been?

Referring back to that Sam Coates tweet, it's just one example of the drip drip of negative opinions being thrown out with no actual substance behind them; just more preaching to the converted.

Edited July 17, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[horsefly 4,318]

5 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Hell, it doesn't seem long ago that I was being told on here that we'd never join CPTPP at all.

Who told you that? I certainly remember people saying that joining the CPTPP would be utterly pathetic when compared to the losses accrued by Brexit. Even the government's own figures prove that.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

7 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

I think it's a legitimate question as to why so many are focussing on a negative spin regarding CPTPP. This is an RTA that's only a few years old that represents an enormous chunk of global GDP. It has credible prospective new members like South Korea in the offing.

A lot of the narratives about supposed indifference in Asia to our membership are just plain wrong, and obviously so from the gargantuan diplomatic efforts that have been made to get us into the treaty. Apart from anything else, they've all just got preferential access to a G7 net-importing nation with the added benefit of cumulation of supply chains between them in selling to the UK. That alone improves all of their competitive positions against EU suppliers to us, which will only help the situation as far as improving our relationship with the EU is concerned. The idea that they'd consider that a minor thing is laughable.

We were told that the concessions to New Zealand and Australia on agriculture were 'disastrous'. Since then, we've negotiated with Canada without offering the same concessions, but also the noises from the farming community about export prospects on the back of CPTPP are actually looking far better than the picture painted before.

We're just talking about predictions, when all's said and done, which is an area where the europhiles have really failed very badly post-Brexit. Hell, it doesn't seem long ago that I was being told on here that we'd never join CPTPP at all.

 

Why did the US pull out? I know it was Trump but what was the reason given?

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Remain was dishonest. Where's the cliff edge we were all promised if we did anything other than stay in the single market and customs union and accept being a rule-taker from the EU? How are we being shunned by the world as we were supposed to have been?

Referring back to that Sam Coates tweet, it's just one example of the drip drip of negative opinions being thrown out with no actual substance behind them; just more preaching to the converted.

You think we are in a good position to recover better and quicker than others then? The cliff edge is still there. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

Why did the US pull out? I know it was Trump but what was the reason given?

In a nutshell, protecting industrial jobs in the rust belt.

The US is very resource wealthy, almost to the point it could be pretty much self-sufficient. The only reason the US was pretty outward-looking economically post world war 2 is for the purpose of bringing countries into its sphere of influence. With the effective US hegemony after the collapse of the USSR, there really wasn't any need for that any more; now there's a bit of competition with China, there's a bit more pressure to go the other way, but the American people aren't, on the whole, that keen.

CPTPP would fall over itself to have the US back in. The UK is kind of a consolation price providing elements to the CPTPP that the US would have provided to a lesser extent, but still very useful as the US' key soft power ally.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

5 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

You think we are in a good position to recover better and quicker than others then? The cliff edge is still there. 

There's no cliff edge. The UK has been through the worst now. It will get better.

Basically, the consensus seems to be a hit of about 4.5% GDP from leaving the EU. 20 agreements around the world that deliver a 0.2% benefit to GDP and the UK's quids in. The mountain to climb is, in reality, a molehill.

[ricardo 7,402]

5 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

There's no cliff edge. The UK has been through the worst now. It will get better.

Basically, the consensus seems to be a hit of about 4.5% GDP from leaving the EU. 20 agreements around the world that deliver a 0.2% benefit to GDP and the UK's quids in. The mountain to climb is, in reality, a molehill.

Plus there's no 15 billion membership fee and the members have no intention of trying to become a country.

Win,win.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

7 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

There's no cliff edge. The UK has been through the worst now. It will get better.

Basically, the consensus seems to be a hit of about 4.5% GDP from leaving the EU. 20 agreements around the world that deliver a 0.2% benefit to GDP and the UK's quids in. The mountain to climb is, in reality, a molehill.

Really? Shall we wait and see how well we recover first? And see how our Farmers react when cheap Antipodean products with far less precautions start flooding our market.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Plus there's no 15 billion membership fee and the members have no intention of trying to become a country.

Win,win.

We haven't kicked off yet and we are celebrating. Bit like Cardiff away last year. 

[ricardo 7,402]

6 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

We haven't kicked off yet and we are celebrating. Bit like Cardiff away last year. 

Hope springs eternal.

Went to Cromer for fish n chips today. Thunder storm and a bit parky 

23 quid for cod n chips twice and a can of coke.

 

Edited July 17, 2023 by ricardo

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

12 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Really? Shall we wait and see how well we recover first? And see how our Farmers react when cheap Antipodean products with far less precautions start flooding our market.

They have reacted. It just depends whether you listen to what the farming community and the farming press is saying itself, or what the Guardian is saying the farmers are saying. Looking at the farming press itself, the reaction is net positive.

https://www.fruitnet.com/fresh-produce-journal/farmers-groups-upbeat-on-cptpp/248695.article

https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/what-the-cptpp-free-trade-bloc-could-mean-for-uk-agriculture

Edited July 17, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

14 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

They have reacted. It just depends whether you listen to what the farming community and the farming press is saying itself, or what the Guardian is saying the farmers are saying. Looking at the farming press itself, the reaction is net positive.

https://www.fruitnet.com/fresh-produce-journal/farmers-groups-upbeat-on-cptpp/248695.article

https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/what-the-cptpp-free-trade-bloc-could-mean-for-uk-agriculture

So do we abandon the trade agreements with have with the Anzacs because theyshorted us but inside the CPTPP they won't?

I don't read any newspaper by the way. What about you? Le Monde. Or are you as British as the weather and only read Englsih ones? Surely living in France, voting remain and now defending Brexit at any cost is unique?

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

16 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Plus there's no 15 billion membership fee and the members have no intention of trying to become a country.

Win,win.

There are things I very much miss about being an EU member. Easily hopping back and forth to the UK more informally is one thing. Roaming caps on mobile phones. Would I be up for the UK participating in Erasmus again? Sure. Why wouldn't I want UK youngsters to have a chance to immerse themselves on the continent when I love it so much myself? To be honest, I think it's kind of sad that more British youngsters didn't take advantage of Erasmus when it was on the table for them.

All of it's achievable without rejoining the EU. It's just a question of patience and looking for the opportunities where the EU wants something from us to get it on decent terms that don't give up more than it's worth.

The problem is that everyone's stuck in a binary in/out mindset post-referendum. I think people who are so wedded to the idea of having been in the EU need to take a step back and think what they actually valued about being members of the EU and focus on pushing for those things, rather than just pushing for a vague, impractical, and politically unrealistic dream of rejoining the EU as if nothing had happened. With regard to the things I mentioned, I think you'd easily build a majority behind restoring them.

 

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

28 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Hope springs eternal.

Went to Cromer for fish n chips today. Thunder storm and a bit parky 

23 quid for cod n chips twice and a can of coke.

 

Thats cheap (I use cheap in an illustrative way) considering what we pay down here. Local chippy is £14.65 for cod and chips.

Wait until the Japanese start fishing our waters.

Edited July 17, 2023 by keelansgrandad

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

32 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

So do we abandon the trade agreements with have with the Anzacs because theyshorted us but inside the CPTPP they won't?

I don't read any newspaper by the way. What about you? Le Monde. Or are you as British as the weather and only read Englsih ones? Surely living in France, voting remain and now defending Brexit at any cost is unique?

I tend to read articles ad hoc as they cross my path. Most frequently, I read the Guardian, just because it's the most frequently shared stuff that crosses my path, and although the bias isn't to my tastes, I know it won't be factually inaccurate, even if it may mislead by ommission on occasion. Le monde, Nikkei and the Japan Times have been frequent reads of late. Don't really dip behind paywalls on the whole.

TV News, it's BBC, CNN, and France 24.

I was in London the week before last, and in Falmouth Monday to Thursday last week sailing with my brother-in-law (really wanted to message you about a pint but I just didn't have time on a three-day visit).

I'm British and very fond of my country and culture, but also love France enormously as well as Germany. Politically, I'm a classical liberal and a Hobbesian, and I take that view on geopolitics as well: Make the agreements necessary to make people's lives better and more peaceful, but don't do more than you actually need.

Interestingly, I was chatting to an American who lives in London who said she has absolutely no native British friends in London. They were all expats from all over the world. It got me thinking back to what Theresa May said about citizens of everywhere being citizens of nowhere. I think she was right.

Aus and New Zealand didn't short us. They got a good deal from us, and maybe what they deserved for being so decent with us after we shorted them when we joined the EEC.Like I said, the overall picture for the agricultural sector is looking pretty healthy by its own accounts.

 

Edited July 17, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie