The Positive Brexit Thread

[Bobzilla 145]

On 04/03/2024 at 18:26, Rock The Boat said:

What we actually know for certain is that the EU has extended the right of London clearing houses to serve EU customers until 30 June 2025, so you've jumped the gun a little bit with your claims.

That’s only half the story though (and at some point the extensions will end).  The bigger issue is the right to sell financial products to EU retail investors, and to market those products in the EU.  Gone.  And there were lots of London profits being made from that business, and London people being employed to write that business, and manage the funds from that business.

Sure, you can still run a business model where work is outsourced back to London, but for how long?  That business model will not survive in the long term because the EU will not permit it.  They already hate it when other third countries do it - have an EU company to front business with the appropriate experienced people to manage the outsourced activities in the EU, but everything of substance happening outside the EU.  It severely limits their ability to regulate conduct of the financial institutions, and that won’t be tolerated for much longer.  

[Herman 9,780]

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/products/brexit-to-blame-as-yet-another-uk-bike-distributor-closes

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

18 hours ago, Bobzilla said:

That’s only half the story though (and at some point the extensions will end).  The bigger issue is the right to sell financial products to EU retail investors, and to market those products in the EU.  Gone.  And there were lots of London profits being made from that business, and London people being employed to write that business, and manage the funds from that business.

Sure, you can still run a business model where work is outsourced back to London, but for how long?  That business model will not survive in the long term because the EU will not permit it.  They already hate it when other third countries do it - have an EU company to front business with the appropriate experienced people to manage the outsourced activities in the EU, but everything of substance happening outside the EU.  It severely limits their ability to regulate conduct of the financial institutions, and that won’t be tolerated for much longer.  

Most importantly, the actual transaction happens in the EU which means the resulting tax is paid in the EU. The companies concerned can live with that but we can't. 

[horsefly 4,303]

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,553]

7 hours ago, horsefly said:

 

My crystal ball's better than yours.

Trouble is, all these people are too blinkered  to look at the wider implications of a successful CPTPP beyond just 'Brexit bad'. An increasing number of thinkers within the EU are contemplating CPTPP as a means to pursue their interests in Asia.I remain convinced that CPTPP is going to be core in healing and building a new relationship with the EU, just as the process of joining CPTPP actually precipitated progress over Northern Ireland.

https://ecfr.eu/article/european-trade-and-strategy-in-the-indo-pacific-why-the-eu-should-join-the-cptpp/

Edited March 20 by littleyellowbirdie

[horsefly 4,303]

Brexit, taking back control of our borders:

https://x.com/Ginger_Elvis88/status/1753115201879134595?s=20

[Fen Canary 831]

5 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Brexit, taking back control of our borders:

https://x.com/Ginger_Elvis88/status/1753115201879134595?s=20

The referendum was around 8 years, we left over 3 years ago. If by now they still haven’t worked out how to process the freight properly then that’s down to the incompetence of the border officials 

[Creative Midfielder 1,998]

31 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

The referendum was around 8 years, we left over 3 years ago. If by now they still haven’t worked out how to process the freight properly then that’s down to the incompetence of the border officials 

That seems highly unlikely to me, I would suggest that the real explanation is the utter incompetence at the top of the Home Office - after all this scarcely an isolated example, in fact it is totally consistent with the pattern of their complete inability to discharge any of their responsibilities in a sensible, timely or efficient manner.

The two outstanding features of our recent Tory Governments have been corruption and incompetence but even within that context the Home Office stands out as a beacon of poor policy making, terrible or non-existent delivery and just total uselessness.

Edited March 20 by Creative Midfielder

[Fen Canary 831]

22 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

That seems highly unlikely to me, I would suggest that the real explanation is the utter incompetence at the top of the Home Office - after all this scarcely an isolated example, in fact it is totally consistent with the pattern of their complete inability to discharge any of their responsibilities in a sensible, timely or efficient manner.

The two outstanding features of our recent Tory Governments have been corruption and incompetence but even within that context the Home Office stands out as a beacon of poor policy making, terrible or non-existent delivery and just total uselessness.

Yeah sorry, that was clumsy wording on my part. I didn’t mean the officials themselves, more the processes put in place by the higher ups. As you say it’s fairly standard for the Home Office

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

18 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

Yeah sorry, that was clumsy wording on my part. I didn’t mean the officials themselves, more the processes put in place by the higher ups. As you say it’s fairly standard for the Home Office

The processes 'put in place' are a direct consequence of Brexit and new customs processes for goods entering from the EU. It's  simply extra 'red tape' and costs on business and by extension the tax payer that didn't exist when in the SM (the days of the monthly EC Sales lists). That's why Maggie championed it.

You could argue that Brexit is simply a lefty protectionist 'make-work' scheme to keep people employed. Did I see 100,000 extra bureaucrats employed because of it ? I wouldn't mind if they taxed only the Brexiters to pay for it. Plus of course it doesn't add any real value to business but is just a hindrance. But hey-ho - such are the economics of Brexit.

[Herman 9,780]

4 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

The referendum was around 8 years, we left over 3 years ago. If by now they still haven’t worked out how to process the freight properly then that’s down to the incompetence of the border officials 

Sadly a lot of this stems from the dishonesty of the brexit leadership. For a long time they wouldn't admit that brexit would lead to a lot more paperwork and red tape, so therefore didn't prepare or train enough staff to cope. Now it is too little, too late. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,553]

19 hours ago, Herman said:

Sadly a lot of this stems from the dishonesty of the brexit leadership. For a long time they wouldn't admit that brexit would lead to a lot more paperwork and red tape, so therefore didn't prepare or train enough staff to cope. Now it is too little, too late. 

Sadly, the dishonesty regarding the ultimate extent of the EU project, i.e. never ending closer Union in every area imaginable meant the bar wasn't that high in the first place for honesty.

Economics was always secondary for the people who voted to leave. They keep telling you, but you still don't seem to understand. I guess you just don't want to.

Until you learn how to actually sell the bits other than economics, you're wasting your time.

Edited March 21 by littleyellowbirdie

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

10 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Sadly, the dishonesty regarding the ultimate extent of the EU project, i.e. never ending closer Union in every area imaginable meant the bar wasn't that high in the first place for honesty.

Economics was always secondary for the people who voted to leave. They keep telling you, but you still don't seem to understand. I guess you just don't want to.

Until you learn how to actually sell the bits other than economics, you're wasting your time.

The funny thing is though for the UK dropping 'ever closer union' had already been achieved by Cameron.

"Ever closer union" is an EU aim and is enshrined in the EU Treaties. David Cameron wanted to exempt the UK from it, and this has been achieved in the new settlement for the UK in the EU"

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7230/

Edited March 21 by Yellow Fever

[Herman 9,780]

44 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Sadly, the dishonesty regarding the ultimate extent of the EU project, i.e. never ending closer Union in every area imaginable meant the bar wasn't that high in the first place for honesty.

Economics was always secondary for the people who voted to leave. They keep telling you, but you still don't seem to understand. I guess you just don't want to.

Until you learn how to actually sell the bits other than economics, you're wasting your time.

As they were promised no economic downside then maybe it was a secondary condition or maybe you are still trying to find legitimate reasons for voting for this nonsense. 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

As they were promised no economic downside then maybe it was a secondary condition or maybe you are still trying to find legitimate reasons for voting for this nonsense. 

They were 'sold' many things, quite often contradictory. Immigration, the £350M, streets paved with gold, 'global Britain' but protectionism, NI borders and certainly few if any downsides. Most of it was of course pure fantasy and as per recent polling near 60% now see that and realize it was a mistake.   

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joining-or-staying-out-of-the-eu-referendum-voting-intention-13-14-february-2024/

Anybody hear that article 'Sideways'on R4 yesterday on cognitive dissonance 'Brain Strain'.  

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001xdg0

Edited March 21 by Yellow Fever

[Herman 9,780]

36 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

They were 'sold' many things, quite often contradictory. Immigration, the £350M, streets paved with gold, 'global Britain' but protectionism, NI borders and certainly few if any downsides. Most of it was of course pure fantasy and as per recent polling near 60% now see that and realize it was a mistake.   

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joining-or-staying-out-of-the-eu-referendum-voting-intention-13-14-february-2024/

Anybody hear that article 'Sideways'on R4 yesterday on cognitive dissonance 'Brian Strain'.  

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001xdg0

Cummings had the genius idea of being as obscure, about the reasons for Brexit, as possible so nobody could be pinned down and the goalposts could be easily moved when one of the reasons died. It was a great idea of his and many years down the road here we are.... 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,553]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

As they were promised no economic downside then maybe it was a secondary condition or maybe you are still trying to find legitimate reasons for voting for this nonsense. 

I've told you before, I didn't vote for it. Just because you're too narrow-minded to respect other views, or have the wit to realise understanding other points of view is the key to persuading people otherwise, doesn't mean everybody is.

But it doesn't matter whether I did anyway, because ultimately more people voted for it than didn't, which is why we left.

Edited March 21 by littleyellowbirdie

[littleyellowbirdie 2,553]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

They were 'sold' many things, quite often contradictory. Immigration, the £350M, streets paved with gold, 'global Britain' but protectionism, NI borders and certainly few if any downsides. Most of it was of course pure fantasy and as per recent polling near 60% now see that and realize it was a mistake.   

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joining-or-staying-out-of-the-eu-referendum-voting-intention-13-14-february-2024/

Anybody hear that article 'Sideways'on R4 yesterday on cognitive dissonance 'Brian Strain'.  

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001xdg0

And before that they were sold an economic union that finished up going a lot further in spite of assurances to the contrary. The misselling of the EU in the first place and the underlying distrust in the EU caused by that was the problem.

Ultimately that's why we will finish up building economic bridges for mutual benefit and probably rebuild cooperation in many areas, but we won't rejoin the EU.

Edited March 21 by littleyellowbirdie

[littleyellowbirdie 2,553]

3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

The funny thing is though for the UK dropping 'ever closer union' had already been achieved by Cameron.

"Ever closer union" is an EU aim and is enshrined in the EU Treaties. David Cameron wanted to exempt the UK from it, and this has been achieved in the new settlement for the UK in the EU"

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7230/

Sort of agree with this, but the problem was having opted out of ever-closer union left us as peripheral players where EU policy was largely prioritising the interests of those fully committed. In the long-term, it was a path to irrelevance, which is why leaving was arguably better than staying in limbo regardless of the short term economic hit.

 

Edited March 21 by littleyellowbirdie

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

25 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Sort of agree with this, but the problem was having opted out of ever-closer union left us as peripheral players where EU policy was largely prioritising the interests of those fully committed. In the long-term, it was a path to irrelevance, which is why leaving was arguably better than staying in limbo.

You'd thrown that up as a reason which clearly had already been resolved if anybody was listening!

And that's the point. Vast numbers of the electorate weren't listening, weren't thinking and had already made their minds up. The facts or rational reasoning didn't matter at all to them as indeed you suggest - 'Leave' even played into this - 'Had enough of experts' i.e. to hell with the facts. It's no different to Trumpism or indeed Nixon as in the R4 article. Minds not open to question. Black is White. 

What we've had since is any number of ever more fantastical excuses or defenses of their choices that don't stand up to scrutiny; shifting grounds to try and hoodwink nobody else but themselves. You yourself go on about CPTTP as an article of faith despite every economic authority regarding it as small, almost insignificant, beer as compared to the loss of the SM.

Obviously as in the polls a significant number have indeed seen through the lies  - and likely won't be fooled again. For the rest as you note no amount of rational factual evidence will ever persuade them differently. They need another fairy story.

Last point - if it is circa 60% who would return I'd suggest that leaves plenty of fertile ground for the election after next for either the Libdems or a reborn Tory party that has ejected the parasitic swivel eyed loons and returned to the centre right. A commitment to look to rejoin the SM and FOM would it appears to be a vote winner for such a minority insurgent party!

[Herman 9,780]

This seemed appropriate thanks to today's latest attempts at rewriting history.

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,553]

3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

You'd thrown that up as a reason which clearly had already been resolved if anybody was listening!

And that's the point. Vast numbers of the electorate weren't listening, weren't thinking and had already made their minds up. The facts or rational reasoning didn't matter at all to them as indeed you suggest - 'Leave' even played into this - 'Had enough of experts' i.e. to hell with the facts. It's no different to Trumpism or indeed Nixon as in the R4 article. Minds not open to question. Black is White. 

What we've had since is any number of ever more fantastical excuses or defenses of their choices that don't stand up to scrutiny; shifting grounds to try and hoodwink nobody else but themselves. You yourself go on about CPTTP as an article of faith despite every economic authority regarding it as small, almost insignificant, beer as compared to the loss of the SM.

Obviously as in the polls a significant number have indeed seen through the lies  - and likely won't be fooled again. For the rest as you note no amount of rational factual evidence will ever persuade them differently. They need another fairy story.

Last point - if it is circa 60% who would return I'd suggest that leaves plenty of fertile ground for the election after next for either the Libdems or a reborn Tory party that has ejected the parasitic swivel eyed loons and returned to the centre right. A commitment to look to rejoin the SM and FOM would it appears to be a vote winner for such a minority insurgent party!

Actually I wouldn't say I consider COTPP an article of faith at; I see a lot of good reasons for many players as well as us wanting it to grow and be successful. Most of the naysayers dismissing CPTPP seem to assume what it is now is the end of the road in terms of members and extent of agreement, which strikes me as rather unlikely.

This from the Swedish board of trade. Plenty of other voices within the EU saying similar.

https://www.kommerskollegium.se/en/about-us/conferences-and-seminars/webinar-eu-trade-integration-with-the-asia-pacific/the-need-for-enhanced-cooperation-with-the-cptpp/

Edited March 21 by littleyellowbirdie

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Actually I wouldn't say I consider COTPP an article of faith at; I see a lot of good reasons for many players as well as us wanting it to grow and be successful. Most of the naysayers dismissing CPTPP seem to assume what it is now is the end of the road in terms of members and extent of agreement, which strikes me as rather unlikely.

This from the Swedish board of trade. Plenty of other voices within the EU saying similar.

https://www.kommerskollegium.se/en/about-us/conferences-and-seminars/webinar-eu-trade-integration-with-the-asia-pacific/the-need-for-enhanced-cooperation-with-the-cptpp/

I have no problem with the CPTTP but it's not a panacea or replacement for the SM.

Next somebody will be along saying we've done a deal with Texas.... Mean while I'm having to hand walk an American through international shipping their own system and State Dept. Laugh a minute.

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

The notion that the deal between the UK and the EU would be "easy" made no sense at the time as there was a clear parallel with a much smaller former partner, that being Greenland. Voted to leave in 1982, it took until 1985 to be ready. And that's a minor semi-autonomous region of Denmark with a population of around 50,000 and an economy that was primarily based on fishing at the time.

The UK economy, being much more tightly enmeshed in a wide variety of sectors, was always going to be a harder decoupling exercise.

As this article from June 2016 made clear...

Greenland’s exit warning to Britain – POLITICO

Edited March 21 by TheGunnShow

[Herman 9,780]

The Brexit omertà continues on British mainstream political shows.🙄

[Wings of a Sparrow 1,419]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

The Brexit omertà continues on British mainstream political shows.🙄

I had to look that up 👍

[Herman 9,780]

1 hour ago, Wings of a Sparrow said:

I had to look that up 👍

Jeremy *unt won't bring it up, the journalists won't bring it up, Labour won't go near it. The only major, country changing events have been the pandemic and the Ukrainian war. 🙄

[Daz Sparks 1,154]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

The Brexit omertà continues on British mainstream political shows.🙄

I also had to look it up! However, now enlightened, I have to agree.

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

On 24/03/2024 at 15:28, Herman said:

Jeremy *unt won't bring it up, the journalists won't bring it up, Labour won't go near it. The only major, country changing events have been the pandemic and the Ukrainian war. 🙄

Here you go

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

On 24/03/2024 at 13:11, Herman said:

The Brexit omertà continues on British mainstream political shows.🙄

Sums it up and its protagonists perfectly.