The Positive Brexit Thread

[Herman 9,837]

"EU proposal for visa-free tours by musicians despite Brexit was rejected, No 10 admits."

"After days of insisting Brussels threw out a deal, government acknowledges it did spurn an offer – but refuses to explain why."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-music-tours-visa-free-eu-b1786588.html

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

13 minutes ago, Herman said:

"EU proposal for visa-free tours by musicians despite Brexit was rejected, No 10 admits."

"After days of insisting Brussels threw out a deal, government acknowledges it did spurn an offer – but refuses to explain why."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-music-tours-visa-free-eu-b1786588.html

Doubtless there were other strings attached in the EU proposals.

It feels like things are heading the right way again what with science cooperation being back on the table. No reason why this shouldn't get fixed as well.

Edited April 8, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,837]

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

6 minutes ago, Herman said:

 

EU bureaucracy limiting Brits: "It's what 'they' signed up for."

UK bureaucracy limiting EU travellers: "Cultural vandalism"

[Herman 9,837]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/apr/08/french-and-german-tourists-turn-their-back-on-brexit-britain

"The decline is not just down to the issue of passports – Brexit has also battered the perception of Britain as a welcoming nation for tourists. Data from Visit Britain and the Anholt Ipsos Nation Brand Index shows a decline in how French and German people view the UK’s standing compared with other countries."

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

9 hours ago, Herman said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/apr/08/french-and-german-tourists-turn-their-back-on-brexit-britain

"The decline is not just down to the issue of passports – Brexit has also battered the perception of Britain as a welcoming nation for tourists. Data from Visit Britain and the Anholt Ipsos Nation Brand Index shows a decline in how French and German people view the UK’s standing compared with other countries."

It's European tourists, and leaving the EU has been quite a trauma.

I've been asked about Brexit by a number of French people and the predominant sentiment I've come across is polite curiosity. Few people really seem to care that much that we're no longer members of the EU.

It's simply more of a ball ache for EU tourists to go to the UK now as it is UK tourists to go to the continent, so they look to go elsewhere. It's nothing to do with sentiment.

 

Edited April 9, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,837]

[A Load of Squit 5,223]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

It's European tourists, and leaving the EU has been quite a trauma.

I've been asked about Brexit by a number of French people and the predominant sentiment I've come across is polite curiosity. Few people really seem to care that much that we're no longer members of the EU.

It's simply more of a ball ache for EU tourists to go to the UK now as it is UK tourists to go to the continent, so they look to go elsewhere. It's nothing to do with sentiment.

 

Let's see, who do we take seriously, actual polling by professionals or a stupid man who lives in France?

 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,198]

20 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Doubtless there were other strings attached in the EU proposals.

It feels like things are heading the right way again what with science cooperation being back on the table. No reason why this shouldn't get fixed as well.

What were the "other strings"?

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,198]

23 hours ago, Herman said:

More completely unnecessary cultural vandalism.

 

Inevitably, its the smaller artists that are getting screwed. Unlike people such as Roger Daltrey

UK & EU artists aren't stealing each other's jobs. There needs to be an agreement that allows performers better access throughout the UK & EU

 

Edited April 9, 2023 by How I Wrote Elastic Man

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

20 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Inevitably, its the smaller artists that are getting screwed. Unlike people such as Roger Daltrey

UK & EU artists aren't stealing each other's jobs. There needs to be an agreement that allows performers better access throughout the UK & EU

 

Exactly; agreements don't happen if one side is happy with what it's getting without an agreement.

Edited April 9, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[BigFish 1,988]

20 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Doubtless there were other strings attached in the EU proposals.

Such errudition, I don't know what the problem was but it must have been their fault.

[Hook's-Walk-Canary 213]

UK’s exports of services are up by 25% whilst the EU’s share plunges from one-half to one-third in under five years ...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/datasets/importsofservicesbycountrybymodesofsupply

• Exports to EU27 countries : £117.5bn (35.8%)
• Exports to rest of the world : £210.6bn (64.2%)

 

Despite Brexit 😉

 

[Yellow Fever 3,839]

4 minutes ago, Hook's-Walk-Canary said:

UK’s exports of services are up by 25% whilst the EU’s share plunges from one-half to one-third in under five years ...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/datasets/importsofservicesbycountrybymodesofsupply

• Exports to EU27 countries : £117.5bn (35.8%)
• Exports to rest of the world : £210.6bn (64.2%)

 

Despite Brexit 😉

 

Do you really really want to cherry pick distorted incomparable statistics ..... I've heard about contortionists.

Try this one - I'd be keeping out of sight if I were you. Relegation form. I suppose that's what happens when you fully  implement a package of economic sanctions on your economy. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65240749

The UK is set to be one of the worst performing major economies in the world this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

It says the UK economy's performance in 2023 will be the worst among the 20 biggest economies, known as the G20, which includes sanctions-hit Russia.

[Hook's-Walk-Canary 213]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Do you really really want to cherry pick distorted incomparable statistics ..... I've heard about contortionists.

Try this one - I'd be keeping out of sight if I were you. Relegation form. I suppose that's what happens when you fully  implement a package of economic sanctions on your economy. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65240749

The UK is set to be one of the worst performing major economies in the world this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

It says the UK economy's performance in 2023 will be the worst among the 20 biggest economies, known as the G20, which includes sanctions-hit Russia.

LOLS! 

The projections from the IMF are being treated as if God personally inscribed them on a stone tablet and handed them down from on high. The IMF is at least consistent in getting predictions about the UK economy wrong…

• 2016
  • Apr – 0.3% off
  • Oct – 0.4% off
• 2017
  • Apr – 0.4% off
  • Oct – 0.7% off
• 2018
  • Apr – 0.1% off
  • Oct – 0.3% off
• 2019
  • Apr – 0.4% off
  • Oct – 0.4% off
• 2021
  • Jan – 3% off
  • Apr – 2.2% off
  • Jul – 0.5% off
  • Oct – 0.7% off
• 2022
  • Apr – 0.4% off
  • Jul – 0.9% off
  • Oct – 0.5% off

Since 2016 the IMF has consistently underestimated UK GDP growth. Every single year. During an urgent question debate on the forecasts this afternoon, Michael Fabricant asked Treasury Minister James Cartlidge how many of the IMF’s recent predictions about the UK economy turned out to be inaccurate

[Herman 9,837]

How are Patrick Minford's predictions coming along, Jools?

[Hook's-Walk-Canary 213]

6 minutes ago, Herman said:

How are Patrick Minford's predictions coming along, Jools?

I don't know about Jools, but I personally have never cited Minford.

[A Load of Squit 5,223]

Meanwhile, back in reality, the sh!t show continues.

https://www.ft.com/content/7d2fa6d1-1994-4f74-a59f-b2c63b301f1c

Good luck to those British companies who want to import from the EU when the post-Brexit customs checks start (“Sunak seeks fresh talks with EU after rout of Tory Eurosceptics”, Report, March 24). In our case, after a recent audit, HM Revenue & Customs has decided to levy an 8 per cent duty on the return of all the lace that we manufacture in the UK, send to France for dyeing, and then get back for further finishing. This is backdated over two years to when Brexit started. We have spent more than 200 years building our business, fought for 30 years against the global textile trend of moving to the Far East and have now been killed off by our own side in a couple of years. We all lose.

Charles Mason Managing Director, Cluny Lace Ilkeston, Derbyshire, UK

[benchwarmer 625]

4 hours ago, Hook's-Walk-Canary said:

Since 2016 the IMF has consistently underestimated UK GDP growth.

 

That could be because the government takes notice of the forecast and acts accordingly, Jeremy Hunt's budget being a case in point.  That's what the forecasts are for, after all.

4 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65240749

The UK is set to be one of the worst performing major economies in the world this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

It says the UK economy's performance in 2023 will be the worst among the 20 biggest economies, known as the G20, which includes sanctions-hit Russia.

Jeremy Hunt has been quick to point out that, compared with the IMF estimate in October 2022, the UK's growth forecast is the most improved in the G7.  That is true, but he fails to mention that it's because the October estimate was based on the Truss/Kwarteng budget.

Edited April 11, 2023 by benchwarmer

[Yellow Fever 3,839]

1 hour ago, benchwarmer said:

That could be because the government takes notice of the forecast and acts accordingly, Jeremy Hunt's budget being a case in point.  That's what the forecasts are for, after all.

Jeremy Hunt has been quick to point out that, compared with the previous IMF estimate in October 2022, the UK's growth forecast is the most improved in the G7.  This is true, but he fails to mention that it's because the previous estimate was based on the Truss/Kwarteng budget.

To be fair it really doesn't matter what the exact numbers are - same as the actual final point tally in EPL or Championship. It's where you are placed amongst your peers. Nailed on for relegation so far.

[sonyc 5,541]

Hmmm...who to believe.

Really difficult one...

I mean....Hooky or the IMF?

Will just have to come back on that one.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

4 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Hmmm...who to believe.

Really difficult one...

I mean....Hooky or the IMF?

Will just have to come back on that one.

He's right that it's remarkable that IMF forecasts get so much attention when they have such a poor record of accuracy.

BW's thoughts that IMF forecasts may influence fiscal policy to correct, but I find it hard to believe that that works account for it. In fact, you can argue that there's a clear systematic error in the predictions and not just random error.

 

[sonyc 5,541]

26 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

He's right that it's remarkable that IMF forecasts get so much attention when they have such a poor record of accuracy.

BW's thoughts that IMF forecasts may influence fiscal policy to correct, but I find it hard to believe that that works account for it. In fact, you can argue that there's a clear systematic error in the predictions and not just random error.

 

Well I did look that up before I posted. Lots of links possible but I will just post the Yahoo Finance one here as it might be considered more neutral.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/accurate-imfs-global-growth-projections-205500163.html

 

Edit. Ps if you look at how the Mail or Telegraph consider the IMF then they have a different take. Surprise, surprise 😊

Edited April 11, 2023 by sonyc

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

4 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Well I did look that up before I posted. Lots of links possible but I will just post the Yahoo Finance one here as it might be considered more neutral.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/accurate-imfs-global-growth-projections-205500163.html

Exactly. Globally they're showing reasonable precision, yet specifically with regard to the UK they're systematically wrong on the side of pessimism. Why is that and why have they still not questioned their own models in light of the glaring inaccuracy? Why are no journalists asking this question?

Edited April 11, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[sonyc 5,541]

3 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Exactly. Globally they're showing reasonable precision, yet specifically with regard to the UK they're systematically wrong on the side of pessimism. Why is that and why have they still not questioned their own models in light of the glaring inaccuracy? Why are no journalists asking this question?

https://news.sky.com/story/why-does-the-uk-fare-so-poorly-in-the-latest-imf-forecast-12799691

There is a little background here. A couple of specific weak areas (gas prices and Brexit). Quite a balanced article.

Overall though I think I prefer to trust the IMF and philosophically I guess when it comes to finances I am risk averse generally. I mistrust gung ho economics - thinking of the boosterism of Johnson and the recklessness of Truss and Kwarteng.

Prefer my economists of the gloomy kind especially when it comes to national economics. Even if I used not to like them. E.g. when I was in my job. I often just wanted to spend, to make surpluses and reinvest but the finance people always went on about blooming accruels! Always caution. They (and HR and Legal) kiboshed everything - at least they tried to.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

To be fair it really doesn't matter what the exact numbers are - same as the actual final point tally in EPL or Championship. It's where you are placed amongst your peers. Nailed on for relegation so far.

Relegation from the G7 would mean a 27% reduction in UK nominal GDP.

[Yellow Fever 3,839]

14 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Relegation from the G7 would mean a 27% reduction in UK nominal GDP.

It's a turn of phrase LYB although we are expected in  due course to.drop out of the G7 for all the reasons of emerging economies I.e. India, Brazil etc. even if we grow well. We are at the end of the day a relatively mature modest country of only 60M people or so vs some much larger countries.

[Herman 9,837]

Yep.

 

[dylanisabaddog 5,014]

[littleyellowbirdie 2,602]

12 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

You'd have thought the leavers would rally around them on this one.