Jump to content
Jools

The Brexit Thread

Recommended Posts

20 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Suppose Curtice's notion is right, and we end up in effect with the situation we have now, with the Tories being the largest single party (that looks likely) but in a minority because no other party will align with it or, if the DUP will, it still is well short of the magic number (326?).

That is fine for voting against Johnson's WA, but to break the impasse MPs have to agree on an alternative and vote for it. And as it stands the potential allies - say, Labour, the LibDems and/or the Nats - have different Brexit policies.

They would have to agree on whether Brexit was still going to happen, but with, for example, the UK staying in a customs' union (subject to EU approval), or whether any deal should be put against Remain in another referendum (again, if the EU was prepared to grant yet another extension).

And even if that can be worked out, there is still the question, leaving Brexit aside,  of a government meant to last for five years. Simply being anti-Tory won't be enough. This coalition of politicans who probably really don't much like each other, or their policies, could fall apart, necessitating another election.

I see Curtice's thoughts are now in the Times.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At last an opportunity to get rid of all those MPs who crossed the floor and joined other parties and get a real house of commons.

Personally I will be voting for the Conservatives as I want to keep my MP in = He's voted throughout, the way I would have voted.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Theresa May actually got a greater number of votes in 2017 than Cameron did in 2015. Yet her majority shrivelled to almost nothing. That was because there was also a surge of votes to Labour as that year saw peak Corbyn post Glastonbury when the Labour brand was strong and it signed up thousands of new party members.

Since then, Corbyn has dithered and dallied and has no coherent Brexit policy. He is at odds with his membership on the subject. Given that LibDems have a clear policy, the Remain nutjobs will switch to Swinson and split the vote on the left. Expect to see LibDems coming second to Conservatives in most English constituencies with Labour trailing in third place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

At last an opportunity to get rid of all those MPs who crossed the floor and joined other parties and get a real house of commons.

Personally I will be voting for the Conservatives as I want to keep my MP in = He's voted throughout, the way I would have voted.

 

You said you didn't support the Tories anymore due to them giving bribes to terrorists - a consistent position you hold because of Corbyn's associations with terrorists decades ago and your decision to uphold your principles by applying that measure to both parties?

In fact you said I was wrong to suggest that you would be inconsistent on this issue and support the Tories.

So just to be clear. You're not happy about Corbyn associating with Gerry Adams etc, and working with them to secure peace, but you are happy to give a billion pounds of taxpayer money to an Enoch Powell campaign manager and a terrorist who brought arms, including rocket propelled grenades to be used against civilians, into the UK? 

Tick tock or flip flop?

Edited by kick it off
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

 

Personally I will be voting for the Conservatives as I want to keep my MP in = He's voted throughout, the way I would have voted.

Hes lied the way you do throughout also FVCKWIT. You will be known for evermore on this board as a BLATANT LIAR.

 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Theresa May actually got a greater number of votes in 2017 than Cameron did in 2015. Yet her majority shrivelled to almost nothing. That was because there was also a surge of votes to Labour as that year saw peak Corbyn post Glastonbury when the Labour brand was strong and it signed up thousands of new party members.

Since then, Corbyn has dithered and dallied and has no coherent Brexit policy. He is at odds with his membership on the subject. Given that LibDems have a clear policy, the Remain nutjobs will switch to Swinson and split the vote on the left. Expect to see LibDems coming second to Conservatives in most English constituencies with Labour trailing in third place.

Nothing says more about you not understanding the current situation than your second paragraph, it's complete nonsense.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Theresa May actually got a greater number of votes in 2017 than Cameron did in 2015. Yet her majority shrivelled to almost nothing. That was because there was also a surge of votes to Labour as that year saw peak Corbyn post Glastonbury when the Labour brand was strong and it signed up thousands of new party members.

Since then, Corbyn has dithered and dallied and has no coherent Brexit policy. He is at odds with his membership on the subject. Given that LibDems have a clear policy, the Remain nutjobs will switch to Swinson and split the vote on the left. Expect to see LibDems coming second to Conservatives in most English constituencies with Labour trailing in third place.

10 minutes ago, TCCANARY said:

Nothing says more about you not understanding the current situation than your second paragraph, it's complete nonsense.

 

So would you like to explain Labour's Brexit policy in a couple of paragraphs?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Rock The Boat said:

So would you like to explain Labour's Brexit policy in a couple of paragraphs?

I'm no Labour supporter but anybody that doesn't understand their policy is obviously quite thick and hence easily preyed upon by the right.

In very simple terms - get a 'better' deal (that means a CU for Labour) and put the result back to ref vs Remain.

Simple enough for you?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"The fact I'm stuck in England with people like RTB."

At least you'll be able to get an easy stamp in your new blue passport...😝

Apples

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Hairy Canary said:

Yes, hard to argue with that, whichever side of the debate you're coming from. A Tory majority means Brexit. Anything else could very well mean no Brexit, maybe following a confirmatory referendum.

Many things muddy the waters when chicken counting. Lib Dems are going to be much stronger than last time for a start.

Boris is totally different to Theresa May. He could prove to be popular or he could **** it right up.

Corbyn definitely had a bounce during the last election campaign, partly because May was so hopeless. I don't think his second bounce will be so high personally. 

The only thing that is certain is that it's going to be a highly charged campaign!

Yep

Too many imponderables to be able to make any predictions, pollsters are going to be wasting their time with this election. The only poll I will believe will be the exit one ( please note Billy that it’s not published until polling has closed 😉).

What do we think caused Labour to exceed expectations last time round, was it really the success of their campaign, or was it Mays complacency and inability to communicate.

A bit of both I suppose. Not a fan of BJ but he is undoubtedly an effective campaigner and will probably be a Plus for the Tories as opposed to the Minus May.

 

Edited by Van wink

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm no Labour supporter but anybody that doesn't understand their policy is obviously quite thick and hence easily preyed upon by the right.

In very simple terms - get a 'better' deal (that means a CU for Labour) and put the result back to ref vs Remain.

Simple enough for you?

Will they be campaigning for remain or leave?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yep

Too many imponderables to be able to make any predictions, pollsters are going to be wasting their time with this election. The only poll I will believe will be the exit one ( please note Billy that it’s not published until polling has closed 😉).

What do we think caused Labour to exceed expectations last time round, was it really the success of their campaign, or was it Mays complacency and inability to communicate.

A bit of both I suppose. Not a fan of BJ but he is undoubtedly an effective campaigner and will probably be a Plus for the Tories as opposed to the Minus May.

 

 

6 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Will they be campaigning for remain or leave?

Two answers.

1. In 2017 Labour picked up a lot of 'Remain' supporters throwing a well targeted spanner in Mays 'Brexit' safe in the knowledge that Corbyn was unlikely to 'win'. 

2. Labour want to put a better deal back to the people. So they are neither 'Leave or Remain'. Yes that may be a foolish middle way electorally but there is nothing illogical in their position. 

Edited by Yellow Fever

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm no Labour supporter but anybody that doesn't understand their policy is obviously quite thick and hence easily preyed upon by the right.

In very simple terms - get a 'better' deal (that means a CU for Labour) and put the result back to ref vs Remain.

Simple enough for you?

Its much simpler than that.

Get a better deal then campaign against it.

😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Both👍

It is a little sad but enlightening that people only have a 1 bit binary mind in an analogue world. But then that's what has got us into this mess. No subtlety, nuance or middle way allowed. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Both👍

 

23 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Two answers.

1. In 2017 Labour picked up a lot of 'Remain' supporters throwing a well targeted spanner in Mays 'Brexit' safe in the knowledge that Corbyn was unlikely to 'win'. 

2. Labour want to put a better deal back to the people. So they are neither 'Leave or Remain'. Yes that may be a foolish middle way electorally but there is nothing illogical in their position. 

I agree, it is foolish electorally. Whilst it may be “designed” to appeal to both sides, personally I cant see many people being attracted to it. Remainers will surely want to vote for a party that is explicitly remain and leavers for a party that is explicitly leave.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Van wink said:

A bit of both I suppose. Not a fan of BJ but he is undoubtedly an effective campaigner and will probably be a Plus for the Tories as opposed to the Minus May.

A very debatable point. The SNP are keen for him to go North of the border as he repels the Scots. He also disgusts voters on Merseyside and in Remain constituencies he is largely recognised as an incontinent liar. In the polls Johnson led Tories are well behind where May led Tories were in 2017. I think what you mean to say is the right wing media say he is an effective campaigner, not the same thing.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BigFish said:

A very debatable point. The SNP are keen for him to go North of the border as he repels the Scots. He also disgusts voters on Merseyside and in Remain constituencies he is largely recognised as an incontinent liar. In the polls Johnson led Tories are well behind where May led Tories were in 2017. I think what you mean to say is the right wing media say he is an effective campaigner, not the same thing.

Yes he's Marmite - but the 'buffoon' or 'mostly harmless' that gave him a neutral voter 'pass' before has gone. I suspect he'll be like Corbyn - appeals to his base only.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, BigFish said:

A very debatable point. The SNP are keen for him to go North of the border as he repels the Scots. He also disgusts voters on Merseyside and in Remain constituencies he is largely recognised as an incontinent liar. In the polls Johnson led Tories are well behind where May led Tories were in 2017. I think what you mean to say is the right wing media say he is an effective campaigner, not the same thing.

I meant to say what I said, my opinion. 
As for his continence, I will yield to your superior knowledge😀

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm no Labour supporter but anybody that doesn't understand their policy is obviously quite thick and hence easily preyed upon by the right.

In very simple terms - get a 'better' deal (that means a CU for Labour) and put the result back to ref vs Remain.

Simple enough for you?

You missed out the bit where, having got a 'better' deal, they would then campaign against it! Student politicians 🤣🤣😂😂🤣🤣

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

It is a little sad but enlightening that people only have a 1 bit binary mind in an analogue world. But then that's what has got us into this mess. No subtlety, nuance or middle way allowed. 

It's actually a digital world these days. 

We are in this 'mess' simply because a Remain Parliament refused to implement the will of the people to Leave the EU. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Rock The Boat said:

You missed out the bit where, having got a 'better' deal, they would then campaign against it! Student politicians 🤣🤣😂😂🤣🤣

Yes - The subtle point did pass you by. 

Simply they want to offer a 'soft deal' that remove the UK from the EU's political structures and ask you the voter to decide if that what you want.

It would seem that that's a bit too complicated for you to grasp so yes perhaps they should make the decision for you :classic_laugh:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, kick it off said:

You said you didn't support the Tories anymore due to them giving bribes to terrorists - a consistent position you hold because of Corbyn's associations with terrorists decades ago and your decision to uphold your principles by applying that measure to both parties?

In fact you said I was wrong to suggest that you would be inconsistent on this issue and support the Tories.

So just to be clear. You're not happy about Corbyn associating with Gerry Adams etc, and working with them to secure peace, but you are happy to give a billion pounds of taxpayer money to an Enoch Powell campaign manager and a terrorist who brought arms, including rocket propelled grenades to be used against civilians, into the UK? 

Tick tock or flip flop?

I never said I would not vote for them, I've given my reason why I'm voting for my MP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I meant to say what I said, my opinion. 
As for his continence, I will yield to your superior knowledge😀

Fair point @Van wink, although Johnson's reputation as a campaigner rest entirely on being a Tory elected London Mayor. Seeing as that only involved beating Ken Livingstone not really an achievement of note, although some might say analogous to beating Corbyn. 😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Van wink said:

 

I agree, it is foolish electorally. Whilst it may be “designed” to appeal to both sides, personally I cant see many people being attracted to it. Remainers will surely want to vote for a party that is explicitly remain and leavers for a party that is explicitly leave.

Labour's position does seem to be a dogs breakfast on Brexit but people will vote on many other issues. I guess Labour will be pushing to get air time for those areas where they will feel more confident (NHS etc).

The other thing that is different this time around is that the Lib Dems normally look to pick up votes from disaffected Tory and Labour supporters, rather than them jumping right across from right to left. It's going to be quite a leap this time for wavering Tories to move to a party so strongly remain.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

Labour's position does seem to be a dogs breakfast on Brexit but people will vote on many other issues. I guess Labour will be pushing to get air time for those areas where they will feel more confident (NHS etc).

The other thing that is different this time around is that the Lib Dems normally look to pick up votes from disaffected Tory and Labour supporters, rather than them jumping right across from right to left. It's going to be quite a leap this time for wavering Tories to move to a party so strongly remain.  

Yes - I think for the Tories and LibDems it's all about Brexit - but for Corbyn it's not (and frankly never was)  - he wants to go on 'other' issues. We'll see who's right on Friday the 13th  🙂.  Superstitious anyone - Johnson's to loose?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

I never said I would not vote for them, I've given my reason why I'm voting for my MP

It would have been a more interesting post if you had named him

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes - The subtle point did pass you by. 

Simply they want to offer a 'soft deal' that remove the UK from the EU's political structures and ask you the voter to decide if that what you want.

It would seem that that's a bit too complicated for you to grasp so yes perhaps they should make the decision for you :classic_laugh:

Typical condescending Remainer. I can grasp that a political party that campaigns against a deal that it negotiated is not one that the electorate will take seriously. Labour has no credible Brexit policy and the LibDems have stolen the Remain brand. Labour are toast

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Suppose Curtice's notion is right, and we end up in effect with the situation we have now, with the Tories being the largest single party (that looks likely) but in a minority because no other party will align with it or, if the DUP will, it still is well short of the magic number (326?).

 

 

650 seats minus Sinn Fein 7, minus the Speaker = 642

322 = majority of 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Typical condescending Remainer. I can grasp that a political party that campaigns against a deal that it negotiated is not one that the electorate will take seriously. Labour has no credible Brexit policy and the LibDems have stolen the Remain brand. Labour are toast

No - You are just regurgitating cheap unthinking jibes which I've called out. I'm not for Corbyn at all and think his policy is crap but I do understand it. He's at best neutral on Brexit, trying to face both ways and wants to talk about other things - it might work for him yet.  You and others have a 1 track mind it seems unable to look beyond.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×