Hansterbubble

Thanks Kirku, you’re right that’s not much is it. Mind you they do have that incredibly valuable intangible asset, their “history” to add in the mix. 🥴😬

Thanks Purple, that analysis made me wince a bit and I did note that the return made by the pension scheme last year was only 0.8% well under the 3% roughly that they state they need to make. It does suggest that the ‘deep pockets’ quote might be a bit over stated! Ive no idea of where the money will come from and like you I’m not sure I want to dig any further. It’s always hard to follow the chain through to the real owners, but at least on first blush it does look like the pension scheme will be stumping up the money. I don’t think it is anything nefarious. I’m pretty sure the pension scheme would be allowed a (very) few risky bets like this. It’s a bit like me putting £10 on the lottery. It won’t affect my day to day spending or my long term savings, but there is a small chance I could win a life changing amount.

It does if you think of the asset mix. They’ve got most of their money in very safe, liquid assets such as AAA rated equities and Govt securities and these provide the ‘normal’ return that they need to pay benefits. I guess this is a high risk asset which they will hold to make a super profit. If they can get to the premier league in 5 years with only small investment and then sell they may make 3x or even 5x asset value. I’ve no idea what that might look like in reality, but to illustrate my point what they want is to make £200-£500m return on the sale, not get steady 5% return each year, which over 5 years might give a £20-£50m return. It would be the small investment bit that would worry me as a fan? How much will they spend and will it be on players, which is risky, or on infrastructure which is less risky and hopefully will increase the asset value long term? How long will they wait for their return? If they do find a gem will they reinvest the funds into the club or take it out as a dividend? Thanks Chris, $41bn is a lot of noughts and it’s easy to misread!

It’s hard to pin down exactly who the ultimate investor is, but it is thought to be the Arizona State Pension Scheme. I had a quick look at it yesterday evening and it’s facts and figures page shows it has total fund value of $41.8bn. Not sure where the figure referred to above of $440bn comes from. Apparently the fund pays out around $1bn in benefits each year so you can get a rough idea of what return they need. I expect this is a high risk investment for them, as most of their money is tied up in equities, gilts and property to generate returns, and provide liquidity. So they do have deep pockets, but also strict governance around how they deploy their funds. Unlike some wealthy investors this isn’t a vanity project and I’d be surprised to see them throw money at it. The feeling I get from the press is that they think they have experience within their ranks that will enable the club to develop, but I couldn’t immediately see anything that suggested how they would approach that. As I said before the danger with these sorts of investments is that the investor is there solely for profit, generated from a rise in asset value. If they can’t generate that they lose interest and if they do they sell it. Link to the pension scheme is here https://www.azasrs.gov/content/facts-figures.

I miss the derbies too. No other game makes the nerves tingle in the same way.

If your were an investment manager for the pension scheme, how would you pitch this to the investment strategy board? Kirku and Tom make some good points, as it looks as if the first couple of years it will make big losses as you clear out old staff, buy in new players, appoint new managers and coaches. So definitely more investment needed in the short term, but what’s expected in return in terms of the on the pitch results and in what time frame? What if that doesn’t happen, how do you keep the investment going? Putting money into our academy, facilities and coaching gives us an ability to make money from something other than just promotion and has given us a solid financial base and contributed to our football success. It’s been a good model for us and as first movers we’ve had a real advantage with it. Be interesting to see if Ipswich follow suit or go down more traditional pathways.

I think Purple is right and that the pension scheme can hold a number of riskier assets without running into Regulatory issues. I was just eating lunch and wondering what their investment strategy will be? They will want a return on their investment but as others have said, the asset base is thin, so no players or lucrative land to sell, so it feels unlikely to be short term gains. The ownership stake means it’s more than just about making some interest on loans, and profits are too erratic to make a good dividend stream, so it must be about inflating the asset value by reaching the premier league. So far so obvious I’d say, but what’s the magic recipe for doing that? How long does it take, how much more do you risk (financially) to get there and how do you get the right structure and personnel to do that? It will be interesting to see how these questions resolve in the next few months and how well that aligns with what the fans want. You can see how it might work if things go well and some momentum builds, but that’s not easy to do. I remember watching the Sunderland Netflix show, where Ellis Short, the US owner at the time, had lost interest in the club as an investment and didn’t seem to want to sell or to support it. On the surface it seems Marcus Evans was doing the same. I guess it’s good to get new money in, but does that break the cycle or will this investor find the job to big and fall back into being disinterested in the club in the longer term?

I’ve said for a while that I’ve been impressed by the focus and professionalism the team has shown, game after game after game. It that consistency that has given us such a commanding position. Tonight’s game was superb to watch and a fantastic way to celebrate our progress and success. I’m really enjoying the moment. I’m not sure I understand your perspective.

We are 17 points clear of third and have just won 7-0, that’s a perspective that I rather like. 😁💪👍🍾🍾

Thanks Til, I didn’t know but will be definitely tuning in.

Is there room for one more? We’re not going to miss the boat from here and neither am I! 😁💪⚽️🍾

I think Sellotape is the brand name (I’m not sure if this is true, but the story is that they changed the C in Cellotape to an S so the name could be registered as a trademark). Cello strings have been around for a long, long time, so Deborah definitely won’t be in. 😊🙂 I bought some double sided sticky tape the other day and that is pretty impressive stuff! Back to football. I’ve been impressed by the approach to the last 5 or so games. It’s been focussed and highly professional and in the Forest game we controlled the game excellently. I see no reason for the approach and philosophy to change, and we’ve got a terrific points cushion so every reason to be positive about the final outcome.

I agree especially with the last part. Of course we all want to get back to games, and as an Norfolk exile that will mean me visiting my local non league club where average attendances are typically around 50% of capacity. So getting fans back is important, but if you want better outcomes for small clubs then isn’t the answer for football to address the structural issue with the way the game is organised so more money trickles down to the lower leagues? I say this with no expectation of that actually happening of course!

I think the issue is that viruses mutate, so even if you are vaccinated against the current strains you might still be at risk if a new variant comes along. I gather that is why there is so much caution around allowing foreign holidays in the summer as they think this may encourage mutations and allow a route for them to come back to the UK. I suspect we will end up having booster jabs to try and combat this, but the science will naturally lag behind events as the scientists try to understand the mutation and how to combat it. So I don't think we will all be back to normal in May/June. I suspect that masks and social distancing will continue and we may not have full houses at games and social events for a while yet. Incidentally I saw an interview with Andrew Lloyd Webber on the tv where he was saying his company needed to play to full houses to be economically viable. His approach seemed to place profit firmly above health care considerations. The government seems to have leant the other way, putting health first, so it will be interesting to see what happens in May when theatres and sports events can open up.

My first game was Norwich v Southampton in Oct 1988. I was 19 so a late starter compared to lots of you guys. I recall being really excited about the game and being somewhat star struck by the players and being in the Barclay. I’m not sure whether it was a good game or not as I have no recollection of the match at all other than it was a draw. I just looked it up and it was 1-1. I know I went to lots of the home games that season but looking through the results I haveonly a vague recollection of them. I seemed to wake up a bit in 1989 as I can remember those a bit more clearly.

Apologies, posted this on the wrong thread! My first game was Norwich v Southampton in Oct 1988. I was 19 so a late starter compared to lots of you guys. I recall being really excited about the game and being somewhat star struck by the players and being in the Barclay. I’m not sure whether it was a good game or not as I have no recollection of the match at all other than it was a draw. I just looked it up and it was 1-1. I know I went to lots of the home games that season but looking through the results I have only a vague recollection of them. I seemed to wake up a bit in 1989 as I can remember those a bit more clearly. 😬🙄

Hi Yellowrider, I’ve really enjoyed this year’s book. Some great pictures from before my time and lots of memories too. I’m down to my last 8, what do you need as I have a big pile of duplicates and happy to do a swap or to help you out. Likewise if anyone else fancies a swap? I also did last year’s book and have a few duplicates from that one, so if anyone is interested in them give me a shout.

I very much agree with this. It’s about about making sure we get the points from our remaining fixtures rather than focussing on one game. If we pick up 3 tonight, then that is excellent news as it’s 3 more to the tally. If we don’t we have plenty of fixtures remaining to do that. I was worried that this game would overshadow the Wycombe fixture on Sunday, and perhaps lead to a bad result in that game. But the approach was very professional, very focussed and got the result we needed. We showed resilience after the defeat at Swansea, so if things don’t go to plan tonight that will just be a bump in the road, nothing more, and I believe that we will see that professionalism and focus allow us to go on and get the points we need from our remaining games. So, it does feel a bit like the pressure is on Brentford rather than us and I’m very much hoping for a good performance and another 3 points.

That’s the one that came to my mind. It was so far out and he caught it beautifully on his left foot and sent it straight into the top corner. An absolute screamer! I know this is completely off topic, but Grant Holts header against Liverpool is one I could watch all day .

For the record I think Todd is great and I’ve really enjoyed watching his progress. I’ll be sad to see him move on but if he does go, I’ll watch his career with interest and hope he does well. My comment was more about social media than football. It’s probably a generational thing, but I don’t really understand what people get from these sorts of posts and if this was supposed to make a difference to me in some inspirational way then it went into row z, as I’m not sure what the pose and comment are trying to say. I think this probably means I’m now an old git, who doesn’t understand those rum youngsters.

Same here MWJ. I’ve no idea what the message is supposed to mean. Perhaps I am getting old!

Oh wow, hope you’re not too sore and what a star @Farke life is for getting your bike sorted. Take care and I hope tomorrow is a better day for you 👍

The good news is that is sounds as if you are just feeling sore around your sit bones, and you will go through that after a few days, it just takes a few days to adapt. As Fenway said just try to move position a bit while you’re out. I’m a great fan of Vaseline for the ride and sudocreme for recovery. Lakey, my dad once wrapped his seat in bubble wrap. I’m sure it was comfy but the constant popping made me laugh so much we only got to the end of his road before turning back 😬😳

Annie Lennox is now signing a cheesy version of “Sweet Dreams” in my head 😬😆

Good advice from Purple about knowing what you can do in terms of fixing things roadside. I tend to forget that I’m actually a fairly competent bike mechanic. I do like the idea of having your wife on emergency recovery duties though. I guess with Strava and GPS on your phone it’s pretty easy for them to locate you and get you home. Sounds like you’ve got it all covered and well thought through and 20 miles today is great. I do like a bit of cycling kit, but the main thing is to enjoy your rides and promote your good cause, which you’re doing brilliantly. 🙂👍