Sheffield United v Arsenal

[hogesar 9,674]

1 minute ago, king canary said:

You're muddying the waters somewhat- a number of those clubs you mention weren't promoted clubs like originally mentioned.

I take your point that we're seeing the very bottom of the league get lower points totals than before. However that doesn't change my opinion that we did a remarkably **** job those two seasons.

Apologies, I was generally talking about the discussion I'd read on here about the gap between the top and bottom. But i suppose it's still relevant in that, excusing the clubs that are "Premier League" in every other term (the Villa's, Newcastle's and Leeds) - I do think newly promoted clubs are generally going to struggle to a similar degree we did.

[repman 635]

14 minutes ago, king canary said:

You're muddying the waters somewhat- a number of those clubs you mention weren't promoted clubs like originally mentioned.

I take your point that we're seeing the very bottom of the league get lower points totals than before. However that doesn't change my opinion that we did a remarkably **** job those two seasons.

In terms of xG the second time around was much worse, our expected goal difference per 90 was -1.14, which as far I can see is comfortably the worst over a full season. As it stands Sheff U are currently -1.10 so they're not exactly far behind. 

Looking at the splits between Farke and Smith and our underlying numbers were actually worse under Smith (-1.08 under Farke to -1.15 under Smith), it wasn't drastic and under we'd have been doomed regardless. I do think it goes to show how valuable a coach can be, I still stand by the fact that Webber's big mistake wasn't sacking Farke but instead it was appointing Smith. I could also go on about how despite being a club that was supposedly quite reliant on data, we moved back towards old school methods as time went on under Webber as things started to unravel.

[king canary 7,607]

46 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Apologies, I was generally talking about the discussion I'd read on here about the gap between the top and bottom. But i suppose it's still relevant in that, excusing the clubs that are "Premier League" in every other term (the Villa's, Newcastle's and Leeds) - I do think newly promoted clubs are generally going to struggle to a similar degree we did.

I think we may see some more of that but I don't think it changes my view on any of it to be honest.

We're seeing with Luton, Brentford, Bournemouth that it is possible to be competitive without a huge splurge on promotion- so you have to ask what are they doing differently to us. This is where it is an execution issue- both in terms of how they've spent their money and how they've built on their existing momentum. 

 

[hogesar 9,674]

59 minutes ago, king canary said:

I think we may see some more of that but I don't think it changes my view on any of it to be honest.

We're seeing with Luton, Brentford, Bournemouth that it is possible to be competitive without a huge splurge on promotion- so you have to ask what are they doing differently to us. This is where it is an execution issue- both in terms of how they've spent their money and how they've built on their existing momentum. 

 

Didn't Bournemouth still spend £80 million and have to change manager etc - arguably got fortunate there with someone who had no experience in reality? I'm not sure they're an example.

Luton have 2 less points than us. I imagine they'll get more but I'm not sure it's going to be by much.

There's just a few temporary examples basically. We might get lucky one year. Maybe we could have done without the Klose injury under Alex Neil. Who most don't rate as a manager but we were only 5 points from safety with 34 points so who knows?

I think Brentford are the only real good example and their fans will tell you it took years of player trading and squad building utilising data methodologies that others at this level weren't doing so at the time. But just because one or two clubs achieve it doesn't mean it's dismal failure when you don't.

I understand we won't agree on that last bit.

[RobJames 881]

4 hours ago, king canary said:

Yes? How is this a remotely controversial opinion? What do you think caused Leicester to be relegated?

"a remotely controversial opinion?"  where did I say that, I didn't ?

I merely asked you for evidence that Leic had "poor execution......."

Perhaps you would now like to have a guess at those above I listed, and the dozen or so other recently relegated Championship clubs below us. Would you offer the same explanation in each case there ?

Or perhaps there are other factor sat work which offer a better understanding, than one that (baselessly) accuses us of "poor execution from those in charge"

[Robert N. LiM 4,356]

5 hours ago, repman said:

Realistically the only way we will get a really top coach in is by hiring them in the championship and going on that journey with them, it's what we hoped for with Farke.

Have to say my instinct is we'd have to be very lucky to find a better coach than DF while in the Championship. Who would your examples be of where other clubs have done this? I can only think of Thomas Frank, who of course was Dean Smith's assistant...

[repman 635]

9 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Have to say my instinct is we'd have to be very lucky to find a better coach than DF while in the Championship. Who would your examples be of where other clubs have done this? I can only think of Thomas Frank, who of course was Dean Smith's assistant...

I don't think I'd disagree that Farke isn't a very good coach at this level, but I think the issue is more around how they scale up once you reach the PL. Under Farke in the championship our defence wasn't really that great and it became clear pretty quickly into our second PL season that he hadn't learnt anything (Though he might have done so at Leeds). I think this also brings up the issue as to whether the club was really scrutinising and challenging one another. It was common consensus that we were better defensively in 20/21 as we conceded less goals, but the underlying numbers suggested otherwise. Did we go into the PL season thinking our defensive issues from the previous time were solved, is that why we were so ready to shift the style? 

Anyway I think my point is more surrounding why it's important we go for up and coming managers, instead of experience. You're right that there isn't a plethora of examples to go off, but lots of teams go back down straight away. Frank at Brentford is the clear one. I think Cooper is a pretty good coach and another example but the amount of new players maybe takes the shine off (though that in itself is an impressive achievement). Rob Edwards has done a really good job at Luton but I think the talent deficit is simply way too big in that case, getting them up was enough of a miracle. 

Also, Frank was Smith's assistant but was a manager in his own right before coming over here. It was Brentford doing some clever succession planning more than anything.

[hogesar 9,674]

7 minutes ago, repman said:

I don't think I'd disagree that Farke isn't a very good coach at this level, but I think the issue is more around how they scale up once you reach the PL. Under Farke in the championship our defence wasn't really that great and it became clear pretty quickly into our second PL season that he hadn't learnt anything (Though he might have done so at Leeds). I think this also brings up the issue as to whether the club was really scrutinising and challenging one another. It was common consensus that we were better defensively in 20/21 as we conceded less goals, but the underlying numbers suggested otherwise. Did we go into the PL season thinking our defensive issues from the previous time were solved, is that why we were so ready to shift the style? 

I think the shift in style to 4-3-3 was to try and solve the defensive issues, if anything. 

Re Farke I think its perfectly fair to say he was a very good championship manager. He may also be a good prem manager but the main issue is his style doesn't suit a newly promoted team. Like you say, defensively we were so far from it.

[Google Bot 3,278]

28 minutes ago, hogesar said:

He may also be a good prem manager but the main issue is his style doesn't suit a newly promoted team.

Watching Leeds quite a few times this season I think they play with far more aggression than how he had us playing, so i'm not too sure about that.  He was playing the cards dealt here really, one was a 'bonus' season and the other he was having to manage a creche of unknowns.

Leeds will provide a stable squad so he can progress them, I couldn't imagine them selling their best asset upon promotion, nor are they reliant on a loanee who they have no hope of signing.   That left a massive hole defensively.

Edited March 5 by Google Bot

[hogesar 9,674]

2 hours ago, Google Bot said:

Watching Leeds quite a few times this season I think they play with far more aggression than how he had us playing, so i'm not too sure about that.  He was playing the cards dealt here really, one was a 'bonus' season and the other he was having to manage a creche of unknowns.

Leeds will provide a stable squad so he can progress them, I couldn't imagine them selling their best asset upon promotion, nor are they reliant on a loanee who they have no hope of signing.   That left a massive hole defensively.

Hes changed his style to try and cope with his defensive frailties he had every season at Norwich and when he got back to Germany. Had he adjusted sooner at Norwich who knows?

[Google Bot 3,278]

2 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Had he adjusted sooner at Norwich who knows?

In all fairness, I think it's more about progressing a stable squad than any grand tactical changes, he was always going to be limited due to our financial position.  But because of Skipp and Emi the whole dynamic went out the window, and he was having to rebuild a squad consisting of players who've never played in this country, let alone the prem league.

Whereas the 'bonus' season (19/20) actually saw less changes set us up for much more stability and part of why we were so strong in 20/21.   I think he's a man who works best where there's stability and his success comes through making lots of smaller tweaks over a period of time.

It was a really tough job that he had, but when I think back to 19/20 it was a much more enjoyable season and more symbolic of his ability in the prem league within a more stable environment, albeit a very underfunded one.

[hogesar 9,674]

15 minutes ago, Google Bot said:

In all fairness, I think it's more about progressing a stable squad than any grand tactical changes, he was always going to be limited due to our financial position.  But because of Skipp and Emi the whole dynamic went out the window, and he was having to rebuild a squad consisting of players who've never played in this country, let alone the prem league.

Whereas the 'bonus' season (19/20) actually saw less changes set us up for much more stability and part of why we were so strong in 20/21.   I think he's a man who works best where there's stability and his success comes through making lots of smaller tweaks over a period of time.

It was a really tough job that he had, but when I think back to 19/20 it was a much more enjoyable season and more symbolic of his ability in the prem league within a more stable environment, albeit a very underfunded one.

I've talked about it before but xG wise we were the 12th best defence in the league that Championship title win where we thought we were so solid with Skipp. It turns out Krul just had a wonder season and to date is statistically one of the best goalkeeping performances ever at championship level. 

Of course that's not everything but Brentford on the other hand, had one of the best xGAs, and I think the Premier League season sort of revealed that for both of us, despite them finishing 15-20 points weaker than us in the champs

[Google Bot 3,278]

13 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Of course that's not everything but Brentford on the other hand, had one of the best xGAs, and I think the Premier League season sort of revealed that for both of us, despite them finishing 15-20 points weaker than us in the champs

Well it's all relative isn't it, as the overall xGD was by far in our favour and most of our defensive mistakes occurred through playing it out from the back and handing a high xG change to the opponent.  But I guess that's part of the point you're making?

I still think a key difference was Frank having a squad to build on and progress, whereas Farke was having to reinvent/rebuild a squad and he's not the wholesale type.  If we retained Emi and Skipp and built on those, as Brentford did with their squad i'd love to have seen the comparison then, as it's like for like.

Sadly we'll never know.  And even if he done the unthinkable and got Leeds into a Europe within the next few years it bares no relation to what he may have achieved here either.

[Ernie Wise 65]

8 hours ago, hogesar said:

Didn't Bournemouth still spend £80 million and have to change manager etc - arguably got fortunate there with someone who had no experience in reality? I'm not sure they're an example.

Luton have 2 less points than us. I imagine they'll get more but I'm not sure it's going to be by much.

There's just a few temporary examples basically. We might get lucky one year. Maybe we could have done without the Klose injury under Alex Neil. Who most don't rate as a manager but we were only 5 points from safety with 34 points so who knows?

I think Brentford are the only real good example and their fans will tell you it took years of player trading and squad building utilising data methodologies that others at this level weren't doing so at the time. But just because one or two clubs achieve it doesn't mean it's dismal failure when you don't.

I understand we won't agree on that last bit.

Brentford have done well with their player recruitment BUT, it does help when the owner has put about £150m-£170m into the club. 
Self funding clubs do not have that luxury?

[dylanisabaddog 4,922]

14 hours ago, king canary said:

Yes? How is this a remotely controversial opinion? What do you think caused Leicester to be relegated?

Leicester were relegated purely because they didn't replace Schmeichel with a keeper of similar ability, which from memory was because they had FFP problems. 

As for Brentford, Bournemouth and Luton, only Luton have truly bucked the trend. The other 2 have relied on sugar daddies. 

Luton have done well but could well be relegated. If they don't go down this season they probably will next year. 

It's a depressing state of affairs. It is now almost impossible for a self funded club to go up and stay up. FFP is starting to bite but it is expected that the rules will be changed in the summer. 

[king canary 7,607]

15 hours ago, hogesar said:

I understand we won't agree on that last bit.

Yeah you'll struggle to convince me setting the 6th and 7th worst points total in Premier League history isn't a dismal failure to be honest.

[aBee 151]

7 hours ago, Ernie Wise said:

Brentford have done well with their player recruitment BUT, it does help when the owner has put about £150m-£170m into the club. 
Self funding clubs do not have that luxury?

While it’s true Benham has put a fair bit in that needs to be seen in the context of being done over 15 years and including building a whole new ground (iirc about half the amount). The rest largely supported an operating loss in L1/Championship of c£8-10m a year, which is relatively modest. On the other side of the equation is net profit on transfers of about £140m between 2014 and 2019. He’s not put anything in since 2018-19 and the club ran at a profit the first two PL seasons. The amount Norwich paid Pukki when he joined (who Frank knew and managed at Brondby) was (from the thread on here about whether he should be offered a new contract) towards the top end of what we pay players now. Apart from the early spending to compensate for having a rickety ground to bring us nearer to the advantages of bigger clubs with the revenue of larger grounds and commercial facilities over the period we’ve been self-sustaining. 
 

But the point made further upthread is good- while lots recruit with data etc it is not as simple as that and Brentford have done more and differently, mainly from the people and culture side so as to use that data well. It takes time to embed (eg Warburton left in 14-15 despite having taken is to our highest position since WW2 because he simply did not buy into it, we had a rough 15-16 because we tried to do too many things at once and integrate too many new players from abroad too quickly). Now we’re in the new situation of seeing whether the recruitment strategy to turn £1-5m players into £30m sales and/or competitive PL performers can scale up to buying at £15-40m, having the next move be for players to go for £60-100m and the team to establish in at least upper midtable. Jury’s out on that. 
 

Luton might not quite make it but what they’ve done and we did is to focus on what is needed as style and strategy to make the best of their chances with what they have and can afford. So it’s just not realistic regardless of how well you can look like Man City in the Championship to try it as a promoted club. Which I think is where you really fell down in 21-22, Burnley are doing now and I’d predict Leeds may do next season (look at who they have in defence and tell me there’s the basis for survival). At least with Wagner you have a manager who knows how to grind into and survive the PL even if it isn’t that pretty at times. 

[king canary 7,607]

2 hours ago, aBee said:

Luton might not quite make it but what they’ve done and we did is to focus on what is needed as style and strategy to make the best of their chances with what they have and can afford.

This is what I mean by 'poor execution from those in charge' particularly the second season.

It is clear to see looking back that right people were not all aligned. 

Webber clearly wanted a tactical switch to give us a better chance of survival that it didn't seem Farke was bought in on.

Webber also clearly felt we needed several signings to add depth when reports suggest Farke wanted two or three big ones to improve the overall first XI.

Farke clearly wasn't fully bought in on these signings or how to use them.

Webber clearly didn't follow a well thought out succession plan when he hired Smith. 

In comparison the likes of Luton and Brentford know what they want to be and everyone is bought into how they get there. 

[Europe_93 11]

In 85 we got relegated with 49 points, a staggering 13 wins & 10 draws.  If you look at the league tables now, points and goal differences from past you can see just how the league has become the haves and the have nots, sort of 3 or 4 mini leagues emerge within the premier league itself.  What that really means is the league is not compteitive.  That can't be argued when teams lose 3 games on the spin at home 5-0 or more.  It is only going to get worse.

I'd be more than happy if they created a European soccer league - so long as they don't let those teams play in a national soccer league, it's pain enough to see the big 6 field reserve teams that batter everyone in Carabo Cup / FA Cup and perenially take all the final spots...  If you wanna go, off you go!!!

We need to sort out financial fair play - and have a much more equal distribution of funds, control ownership input and probably have a wage cap or a maximum salary cap for teams - relating to the league rather than the club, big clubs don't really want to do this, they have the money this is their advantage.  What we have now is a joke, a team that can spend half a billion in a transfer window - how does that ever equate to financial fair play.

[Ernie Wise 65]

7 hours ago, aBee said:

While it’s true Benham has put a fair bit in that needs to be seen in the context of being done over 15 years and including building a whole new ground (iirc about half the amount). The rest largely supported an operating loss in L1/Championship of c£8-10m a year, which is relatively modest. On the other side of the equation is net profit on transfers of about £140m between 2014 and 2019. He’s not put anything in since 2018-19 and the club ran at a profit the first two PL seasons. The amount Norwich paid Pukki when he joined (who Frank knew and managed at Brondby) was (from the thread on here about whether he should be offered a new contract) towards the top end of what we pay players now. Apart from the early spending to compensate for having a rickety ground to bring us nearer to the advantages of bigger clubs with the revenue of larger grounds and commercial facilities over the period we’ve been self-sustaining. 
 

But the point made further upthread is good- while lots recruit with data etc it is not as simple as that and Brentford have done more and differently, mainly from the people and culture side so as to use that data well. It takes time to embed (eg Warburton left in 14-15 despite having taken is to our highest position since WW2 because he simply did not buy into it, we had a rough 15-16 because we tried to do too many things at once and integrate too many new players from abroad too quickly). Now we’re in the new situation of seeing whether the recruitment strategy to turn £1-5m players into £30m sales and/or competitive PL performers can scale up to buying at £15-40m, having the next move be for players to go for £60-100m and the team to establish in at least upper midtable. Jury’s out on that. 
 

Luton might not quite make it but what they’ve done and we did is to focus on what is needed as style and strategy to make the best of their chances with what they have and can afford. So it’s just not realistic regardless of how well you can look like Man City in the Championship to try it as a promoted club. Which I think is where you really fell down in 21-22, Burnley are doing now and I’d predict Leeds may do next season (look at who they have in defence and tell me there’s the basis for survival). At least with Wagner you have a manager who knows how to grind into and survive the PL even if it isn’t that pretty at times. 

Fair enough but for a fraction of the c £75m spent on the new ground NCFC could have built a new stand, increasing capacity by 7-8000 consequently increasing income and c £100m could have been life changing for NCFC, even over a number of years.

[BigFish 1,987]

5 hours ago, king canary said:

This is what I mean by 'poor execution from those in charge' particularly the second season.

It is clear to see looking back that right people were not all aligned. 

Webber clearly wanted a tactical switch to give us a better chance of survival that it didn't seem Farke was bought in on.

Webber also clearly felt we needed several signings to add depth when reports suggest Farke wanted two or three big ones to improve the overall first XI.

Farke clearly wasn't fully bought in on these signings or how to use them.

Webber clearly didn't follow a well thought out succession plan when he hired Smith. 

In comparison the likes of Luton and Brentford know what they want to be and everyone is bought into how they get there. 

No one (sensible) could possibly argue that we made a good fist at our last two EPL campaigns but much of the specifics here is just hindsight. We know Webber failed, and the idea that depth was required didn't work. But in all likelihood most of the alternate histories also see the club go down. It is the nature of the fundamentals of the club and the League that causes that, not necessarily individual failure. That some clubs of similar stature do survive (for a while) doesn't change that. Luton were flattered by Everton's points reduction, and will almost certainly go down. We could see Leicester, Leeds and Southampton bounce back, and if that happens I expect they will make a better fist of staying up than the Blades and Burnley. If that happens Brentford will struggle to survive. However good their decision making their time will have been up.

[S_81 795]

25 minutes ago, BigFish said:

No one (sensible) could possibly argue that we made a good fist at our last two EPL campaigns but much of the specifics here is just hindsight. We know Webber failed, and the idea that depth was required didn't work. But in all likelihood most of the alternate histories also see the club go down. It is the nature of the fundamentals of the club and the League that causes that, not necessarily individual failure. That some clubs of similar stature do survive (for a while) doesn't change that. Luton were flattered by Everton's points reduction, and will almost certainly go down. We could see Leicester, Leeds and Southampton bounce back, and if that happens I expect they will make a better fist of staying up than the Blades and Burnley. If that happens Brentford will struggle to survive. However good their decision making their time will have been up.

Yeah the main issue at hand here is that the chances of staying up one season are hard enough - but should that miracle occur then the odds of actually sustaining in that league are even larger. Often the talented manager that got you / kept you up is taken, as are any standout players in that first season. It takes financial clout to retain those players - yet alone have the money to improve upon the squad. 
 

It can happen - Brentford, for now, have shown that the alignment of the right pieces can sustain for a bit. But how long remains to be seen - and the onus is really on them now to spend the Toney cash impact-fully. 

 

i, like others on here, feel Norwich could have / should have stayed up for that one season. But even if we had we’d have had our work cut out even more so to stay there. For a club with our governing factors that is always going to be highly difficult, and more so year on year as that gap seemingly grows

[aBee 151]

19 hours ago, Ernie Wise said:

Fair enough but for a fraction of the c £75m spent on the new ground NCFC could have built a new stand, increasing capacity by 7-8000 consequently increasing income and c £100m could have been life changing for NCFC, even over a number of years.

Possibly, but the point I was trying to make was that the investment was to move us from only being sustainable as a lower L1/L2 club (which the supporters trust had got us to when rescuing the club from the big debts run up by Ron Noades whose plan had been to build houses on the ground and move us to groundsharing with non-league Woking- imagine if someone proposed moving you to share with Diss!) to becoming sustainable in the way Norwich is now. Or rather, at a lower level of revenue as the Gtech has a capacity about 10k smaller than Carrow Road and a lot more local competition for commercial uses. 

18 hours ago, BigFish said:

No one (sensible) could possibly argue that we made a good fist at our last two EPL campaigns but much of the specifics here is just hindsight. We know Webber failed, and the idea that depth was required didn't work. But in all likelihood most of the alternate histories also see the club go down. It is the nature of the fundamentals of the club and the League that causes that, not necessarily individual failure. That some clubs of similar stature do survive (for a while) doesn't change that. Luton were flattered by Everton's points reduction, and will almost certainly go down. We could see Leicester, Leeds and Southampton bounce back, and if that happens I expect they will make a better fist of staying up than the Blades and Burnley. If that happens Brentford will struggle to survive. However good their decision making their time will have been up.

I’m not so sure if Leicester, Leeds and Southampton come back up they’ll all comfortably avoid relegation. Leicester are most likely to but Leeds are severely lacking in defence and still quite reliant on Bamford as their senior striker. Southampton’s young buys that took them down might have matured enough to make a better fist of things now but like Leeds I think they’ll need a style change to be pragmatic enough. Burnley have demonstrated how hard carrying Championship dominance through is. 

18 hours ago, S_81 said:

Yeah the main issue at hand here is that the chances of staying up one season are hard enough - but should that miracle occur then the odds of actually sustaining in that league are even larger. Often the talented manager that got you / kept you up is taken, as are any standout players in that first season. It takes financial clout to retain those players - yet alone have the money to improve upon the squad. 
 

It can happen - Brentford, for now, have shown that the alignment of the right pieces can sustain for a bit. But how long remains to be seen - and the onus is really on them now to spend the Toney cash impact-fully. 

 

i, like others on here, feel Norwich could have / should have stayed up for that one season. But even if we had we’d have had our work cut out even more so to stay there. For a club with our governing factors that is always going to be highly difficult, and more so year on year as that gap seemingly grows

Benjamin Bloom has done some interesting videos on second season syndrome and concluded, having looked at the data over the seasons since the PL went to 20 teams the probabilities of relegation fall substantially in 2nd and 3rd seasons up and after that are identical to the probabilities for clubs who’ve been up for longer than 4 seasons. 
 

You’re right though that the challenge becomes replacing and upgrading the core promotion squad. That was what Leeds tried to do and failed at. I don’t know whether we’ll be as good at buying £30-40m players as we were at buying £5m ones. 

[Ernie Wise 65]

On 06/03/2024 at 12:31, Europe_93 said:

In 85 we got relegated with 49 points, a staggering 13 wins & 10 draws.  If you look at the league tables now, points and goal differences from past you can see just how the league has become the haves and the have nots, sort of 3 or 4 mini leagues emerge within the premier league itself.  What that really means is the league is not compteitive.  That can't be argued when teams lose 3 games on the spin at home 5-0 or more.  It is only going to get worse.

I'd be more than happy if they created a European soccer league - so long as they don't let those teams play in a national soccer league, it's pain enough to see the big 6 field reserve teams that batter everyone in Carabo Cup / FA Cup and perenially take all the final spots...  If you wanna go, off you go!!!

We need to sort out financial fair play - and have a much more equal distribution of funds, control ownership input and probably have a wage cap or a maximum salary cap for teams - relating to the league rather than the club, big clubs don't really want to do this, they have the money this is their advantage.  What we have now is a joke, a team that can spend half a billion in a transfer window - how does that ever equate to financial fair play.

Couldn’t have put it better! 
However, you do use 1985 in your post, when we were relegated in highly dubious circumstances (Luton had been away on an end of season jolly before they played Coventry and Everton played a weakened team- Andy Gray who was very close with Deehan was desperate to play but didn’t) was in prehistoric times before football began in 1992!🥳🥳