Striving to make sense of the Middle East

[Mr Angry 1,570]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68874070
 

😥😥😥

[Yellow Fever 3,821]

US sanctions on IDF announced.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,588]

3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

US sanctions on IDF announced.

@Well b back, with your recent love of factual correction on misleasing statements, can you make the correction on YF's statement? Or maybe YF would like to correct it himself?

Edited April 22 by littleyellowbirdie

[littleyellowbirdie 2,588]

C'mon @well b back. We need our factual guru to the rescue... You can do it!

I'll give you a hint... is it the whole IDF that has been sanctioned? What say you?

@Yellow fever. You can join in if you like.

[Well b back 3,274]

2 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

C'mon @well b back. We need our factual guru to the rescue... You can do it!

I'll give you a hint... is it the whole IDF that has been sanctioned? What say you?

@Yellow fever. You can join in if you like.

I thought it was the ones only who were suspected of breaking International law and abusing human rights but as you have already told us that didn’t happen, or maybe that was more b*******. In addition, I think you have changed the context of YF post as he didn’t mention all the IDF you have assumed that, so I have no idea wether he meant all or some and in the next couple of days.

U.S. expected to sanction IDF unit for human rights violations in West Bank

[littleyellowbirdie 2,588]

5 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I thought it was the ones only who were suspected of breaking International law and abusing human rights but as you have already told us that didn’t happen, or maybe that was more b*******. In addition, I think you have changed the context of YF post as he didn’t mention all the IDF you have assumed that, so I have no idea wether he meant all or some and in the next couple of days.

U.S. expected to sanction IDF unit for human rights violations in West Bank

There is no context to what he said. He simply said 'US sanctions on IDF', with no qualifications. Semantically, that sounds like it's implying the whole IDF, doesnt it? Now be honest. Don't let yourself down as our champion of facts and truth on this.

Additionally though, the sanctions are down to alleged war crimes of small groups; there's no suggestion the state is actively sanctioning war crimes in the US position, factually speaking.

Still, good job. 👌

Edited April 22 by littleyellowbirdie

[littleyellowbirdie 2,588]

@Well b back, that was a bit d1ckish on my part to be fair. Must say, Indy threw me the other day when he just backed off after a falling out. He's a good egg. Like he said, people get passionate, and personally I like passionate people, so not sure what I've done to apparently wind you up to a new level, but whatever it is, I apologise for it, so chill out a bit, eh?

Edited April 22 by littleyellowbirdie

[Yellow Fever 3,821]

10 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

US sanctions on IDF announced.

My error which I'm quite happy to accept it that official announcement of the sanctions was slightly premature. That said, it's well reported in the press everywhere and has Netanyahu already in a tizz trying to defend the indefensible. He believes it too 😉

As to the IDF - the battalion in question is part of the IDF. Even Netanyahu doesn't try to pretend it isn't part of or under the control of the IDF/government.

“If anyone thinks they can impose sanctions on a unit of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) – I will fight it with all my strength,” Netanyahu said.

The sad fact is that that nobody can pretend the Israeli government and IDF actions in Gaza aren't the same IDF and government actions across the West Bank or Israel proper. That would be a slight of hand.

However, pretty sure American policy is to target the criminal behavior in the West Bank as the simplest way to bring pressure on the whole regime to change.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,588]

7 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

My error which I'm quite happy to accept it that official announcement of the sanctions was slightly premature. That said, it's well reported in the press everywhere and has Netanyahu already in a tizz trying to defend the indefensible. He believes it too 😉

As to the IDF - the battalion in question is part of the IDF. Even Netanyahu doesn't try to pretend it isn't part of or under the control of the IDF/government.

“If anyone thinks they can impose sanctions on a unit of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) – I will fight it with all my strength,” Netanyahu said.

The sad fact is that that nobody can pretend the Israeli government and IDF actions in Gaza aren't the same IDF and government actions across the West Bank or Israel proper. That would be a slight of hand.

However, pretty sure American policy is to target the criminal behavior in the West Bank as the simplest way to bring pressure on the whole regime to change.

No, but my point is that one battalion of the IDF isn't the IDF. To describe it as sanctions on the IDF is misleading, intentionally or otherwise.

I think the US' approach of singling out individuals and groups who are offending is a good approach and does flag up that the Netanyahu government is turning blind eyes to practices that are insupportable.

Edited April 23 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,820]

Israel provided no evidence that UNWRA staff had any links to Hamas, an independent enquiry has said. 🤔

[Yellow Fever 3,821]

10 minutes ago, Herman said:

Israel provided no evidence that UNWRA staff had any links to Hamas, an independent enquiry has said. 🤔

The allegation itself however unfounded or otherwise however did the damage required of the unquestioning. Job done.

Reminds me slightly of yesterdays Gideon Falter episode and Sunak jumping onto the bandwagon which later proved anything but as it was originally portrayed - the Police Sargent basically exonerated indeed commended on his patience/politeness with such a disingenuous looking for trouble person. Sure a few clumsy words to which the police have apologized.

https://news.sky.com/story/met-police-chief-defends-officer-who-made-openly-jewish-remarks-as-minister-calls-incident-unacceptable-13121232

[cambridgeshire canary 6,790]

CEASEFIRE NOW CEASEFIRE NO- Wait what?
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-armed-wing-al-qassam-brigades-calls-escalation-across-all-fronts-2024-04-23/

[littleyellowbirdie 2,588]

14 hours ago, cambridgeshire canary said:

CEASEFIRE NOW CEASEFIRE NO- Wait what?
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-armed-wing-al-qassam-brigades-calls-escalation-across-all-fronts-2024-04-23/

Hamas' situation is pretty desperate now. The fact is that Hamas probably is destroyed as a political force in Gaza now even though they'll swear that even one militant left with two legs blown off and waving a Palestinian flag would be a victory for them. Most Palestinians do blame Hamas for the suffering they''ve had since October 7th and won't want a repeat.

I do think we're getting to the point where it would be in Israel's interest to look for an exit strategy, but apart from the fact it's not in Netanyahu's interests for an end to the fighting, the big problem is what to do with Gaza afterwards? The Palestinian authority will not want to be seen to go into Gaza at Israel's request, which leaves a power vacuum. Personally, I think a UN peacekeeping force would be the way forward.

Italy is calling for this. https://decode39.com/8205/italy-pushes-for-un-peacekeeping-force-in-post-war-gaza/

I remain firmly of the opinion though that there should never be a Palestinian state until all 36 states that don't recognise Israel formally recognise it and establish diplomatic relations with it; there is no point in a Palestinian state and trying to establish a peaceful two-state solution when you can't get the Palestinians behind it unless Arab actors like Iran are also committed to supporting a peaceful two-state settlement.

Maybe if we and the US framed that as a caveat for support of establishment of a Palestinian state there might be some movement from Iran and co. And if there's no movement then everybody knows its on Iran and co.

Edited April 24 by littleyellowbirdie

[Yellow Fever 3,821]

I see the the US student protests are spreading letting some compare it with the Vietnam protests of the 60s and 70s.

All seems evident to me of the Israelis loosing frankly lost (or squandering) the PR war both globally already and now crucially in the US. 

They needed the US to veto yet again the recognition of a Palestinian state in the UN last week or so. UK abstained. That position can't last. The pages of history are now turning. The generational wind of change is blowing a gale on this subject.

I suspect the final establishment of a Palestinian state and a final uneasy but peaceful solution is now nearer than ever - every cloud has a silver lining etc.

Even saw some of the more moderate Hamas leadership talking about going in with the PLO and disarming if such a state existed (see below)

Peter Beaumont has this analysis for the Guardian from Jerusalam:

Earlier this week senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya suggested the Islamic militant group might be willing to agree to a truce of five years or more with Israel, and that it would lay down its weapons and convert into a political party if an independent Palestinian state is established along pre-1967 borders.....

 

[Mr Angry 1,570]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68903591
 

😥😥😥

[cambridgeshire canary 6,790]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/freed-hostage-my-hamas-captor-gave-me-a-ring-said-id-marry-him-and-have-his-children/

"Thousands of Palestinians, including children, cheered as their vehicle entered the streets of Gaza and tried to hit her and pull her hair through the broken windows”

 

These the same Palastinians who "just want to leave in peace and only want a ceasefire" I keep hearing about?

Edited April 26 by cambridgeshire canary

[Herman 9,820]

Any definitive proof about the mass graves being found? It's hard to get any clarity on the matter. 

[Herman 9,820]

Oh dear, how sad, nevermind.

 

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

14 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I see the the US student protests are spreading letting some compare it with the Vietnam protests of the 60s and 70s.

All seems evident to me of the Israelis loosing frankly lost (or squandering) the PR war both globally already and now crucially in the US. 

They needed the US to veto yet again the recognition of a Palestinian state in the UN last week or so. UK abstained. That position can't last. The pages of history are now turning. The generational wind of change is blowing a gale on this subject.

I suspect the final establishment of a Palestinian state and a final uneasy but peaceful solution is now nearer than ever - every cloud has a silver lining etc.

Even saw some of the more moderate Hamas leadership talking about going in with the PLO and disarming if such a state existed (see below)

Peter Beaumont has this analysis for the Guardian from Jerusalam:

Earlier this week senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya suggested the Islamic militant group might be willing to agree to a truce of five years or more with Israel, and that it would lay down its weapons and convert into a political party if an independent Palestinian state is established along pre-1967 borders.....

 

My fear would be that condition in the final sentence would be enough to negate the chance of a settlement. One effect would mean it requires Israel to withdraw from the Golan Heights. And the problem is those Heights are a great location for Syria to launch missiles into Israeli territory, something i cant ever see Israel letting that happen.

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

So here's my take on the middle-east situation. There is one positive to come out of this horrible mess and that is that the Abraham Accords have held up pretty well despite all the death and destruction that's going on. Which means that those middle-eastern states that backed the Accords must want to seem them to be successful. So any peace agreement will be built on what has already been achieved by Abraham. But this presents a political problem for Biden since Abraham was a Trump initiative. And with the election campaigning building up to November Biden can't do anything that shows Trumps policies in a good light. That just how politics is. so it won't be until after the US election and Abraham is no longer a card to be played that there will be any significant moves towards a peace settlement. Biden will continue to **** about Israel and supply aid to the Palestinians, but still continue to arm the IDF. Biden will talk up a ceasefire because his home audience wants to hear it, but he won't necessarily impose sweeping sanctions on Israel because America does not want to see Israel defeated. Things will bounce along as they are now until the New Year and some sort od peace can be agreed.

 

tl;dnr Palestinians are merely pawns in this game and their future will be decided by others.

[cambridgeshire canary 6,790]

6 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

So here's my take on the middle-east situation. There is one positive to come out of this horrible mess and that is that the Abraham Accords have held up pretty well despite all the death and destruction that's going on. Which means that those middle-eastern states that backed the Accords must want to seem them to be successful. So any peace agreement will be built on what has already been achieved by Abraham. But this presents a political problem for Biden since Abraham was a Trump initiative. And with the election campaigning building up to November Biden can't do anything that shows Trumps policies in a good light. That just how politics is. so it won't be until after the US election and Abraham is no longer a card to be played that there will be any significant moves towards a peace settlement. Biden will continue to **** about Israel and supply aid to the Palestinians, but still continue to arm the IDF. Biden will talk up a ceasefire because his home audience wants to hear it, but he won't necessarily impose sweeping sanctions on Israel because America does not want to see Israel defeated. Things will bounce along as they are now until the New Year and some sort od peace can be agreed.

 

tl;dnr Palestinians are merely pawns in this game and their future will be decided by others.

"tl;dnr Palestinians are merely pawns in this game and their future will be decided by others."
 

Yeah that tends to happen when your rulers are terrorists.

[Fen Canary 866]

1 hour ago, cambridgeshire canary said:

"tl;dnr Palestinians are merely pawns in this game and their future will be decided by others."
 

Yeah that tends to happen when your rulers are terrorists.

Ben-Gvir? 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,588]

11 hours ago, cambridgeshire canary said:

"tl;dnr Palestinians are merely pawns in this game and their future will be decided by others."
 

Yeah that tends to happen when your rulers are terrorists.

They are pawns. I really don't understand why the left chooses to ignore the massive role played by Iran in preventing any peaceful settlement over the years.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,588]

Just been reading a piece in Haaretz looking at the anti-Israeli protests in the US universities and suggesting that this might be the last Democrat administration upon which Israel can count on support.

The Western left should reflect on the fact that their anti-Israeli reaction to October 7th, before the mobilisation in Gaza even started, has helped reinforce Netanyahu's narrative that Israel can only count on itself. Netanyahu's own popularity was at an all-time low after October 7th, but it has been steadily climbing to the point he's only about 7 points behind Benny Gantz, no doubt helped by the persistent message that the whole Western left and the bulk of Western students hate Israelis and Jews backed up by the global rise in antisemitic incidents on and off campuses.

One can't help but entertain the possibility that the Middle East's only functioning democracy could actually finish up in the grip of its far right. If it does, the Western left will have played a vital part in bringing that about by seeking so determinedly to isolate Israel from any support. If Israel is left as a far right regime untethered from the US, then the Western left may reflect that it should have been careful what it wished for, because at that stage Israel may well finish up delivering the genocide the left have always accused it, without foundation, of pursuing.

Edited April 27 by littleyellowbirdie

[cambridgeshire canary 6,790]

NOOOOO not expired skittles! Americans are trying to posion the poor innocent Palestinians!

 

[Herman 9,820]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-working-to-block-feared-icc-arrest-warrants-against-pm-others-over-gaza-war/

[littleyellowbirdie 2,588]

4 hours ago, Herman said:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-working-to-block-feared-icc-arrest-warrants-against-pm-others-over-gaza-war/

The prosecutor's an Arab. Quelle surprise.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/04/09/gaza-israels-imposed-starvation-deadly-children

"As of 1st April 32 people, including 28 children had died of malnutrition and dehydration.."

Who are these jokers? You should be embarrassed making a big thing of that headline, @Herman

Edit: Actually, I take that back; the ICC should be embarrassed.

Edited April 29 by littleyellowbirdie

[ron obvious 1,514]

This is fascinating. I'm still watching it; now it's possible the interviewee is a lying charlatan, I don't really have any way of knowing, but his narrative makes perfect sense to me.

 

[Fen Canary 866]

On 28/04/2024 at 10:27, littleyellowbirdie said:

Just been reading a piece in Haaretz looking at the anti-Israeli protests in the US universities and suggesting that this might be the last Democrat administration upon which Israel can count on support.

The Western left should reflect on the fact that their anti-Israeli reaction to October 7th, before the mobilisation in Gaza even started, has helped reinforce Netanyahu's narrative that Israel can only count on itself. Netanyahu's own popularity was at an all-time low after October 7th, but it has been steadily climbing to the point he's only about 7 points behind Benny Gantz, no doubt helped by the persistent message that the whole Western left and the bulk of Western students hate Israelis and Jews backed up by the global rise in antisemitic incidents on and off campuses.

One can't help but entertain the possibility that the Middle East's only functioning democracy could actually finish up in the grip of its far right. If it does, the Western left will have played a vital part in bringing that about by seeking so determinedly to isolate Israel from any support. If Israel is left as a far right regime untethered from the US, then the Western left may reflect that it should have been careful what it wished for, because at that stage Israel may well finish up delivering the genocide the left have always accused it, without foundation, of pursuing.

Why shouldn’t Israel rely on itself? What has it ever done for any other country in the past for them to come to its assistance?

Why is it the job of western countries to protect Israel from the consequences of its actions? 

[Naturalcynic 654]

9 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

The prosecutor's an Arab. Quelle surprise.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/04/09/gaza-israels-imposed-starvation-deadly-children

"As of 1st April 32 people, including 28 children had died of malnutrition and dehydration.."

Who are these jokers? You should be embarrassed making a big thing of that headline, @Herman

Edit: Actually, I take that back; the ICC should be embarrassed.

On this subject I think we’ve known for a long time which side Herman’s bread is buttered.