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dylanisabaddog

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33 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Undoubtedly generally true Ricardo.

That said, it really rather undermines any notion that democracies are rational or even make sensible policy. I suppose Trump is a good example of that! We would need a better informed, rational electorate to counter this else it just become a beauty contest, a race to the bottom as we now clearly see - exacerbated by our 'social media' alternative facts age.

I rather suspect that China is somewhat smiling at your observation and its longer term implications! 

This is true. When things go **** up the voters swing the other way. It's totally irrelevant who is in power at the time.

It doesn't matter how you vote in China. You either get Xi or Xi.

Edited by ricardo
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17 minutes ago, ricardo said:

This is true. When things go **** up the voters swing the other way. It's totally irrelevant who is in power at the time.

It doesn't matter how you vote in China. You either get Xi or Xi.

The deeper point Ricardo is that if we run our countries ever more so like headless chickens, other countries with alternative but more rational  / longer term thinking forms of government will eventually win out as we misstep. Trump cosying up to Putin is a case in point!

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29 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The deeper point Ricardo is that if we run our countries ever more so like headless chickens, other countries with alternative but more rational  / longer term thinking forms of government will eventually win out as we misstep. Trump cosying up to Putin is a case in point!

Democracy has always been a messy business but at least you get an opportunity to kick the bastards out. Of course in five or ten years time it will be a different set of bastards that get kicked out.

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13 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

A recent survey of Reform voters found that the majority favoured a switch to an Australian points system. Most were surprised to find that's what we already have and several refused to believe it. Pardon me for sneering. 

The stupidity appears to spread to the candidates as well. Apparently the Wellingborough Reform  candidate spent the morning canvassing in Irthlinborough which isn’t actually in the constituency!

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8 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Why would you call them Tory voters if they voted for Labour? The correct term is 'floating voter'.

Nah, I am a Tory voter, embarrassed by my party and what they have done to my country. I will be voting Labour because they are the ones that can get my Tory MP ousted, as she backed Johnson and his lies. If it was Lib Dem in our area as second, I would be voting for them.

As it stands in 5 years time, I suspect I think I will be voting Tory, if they can move back and get rid of the likes of Braverman, Rhys Mogg etc. However to me this is a big chance for Labour, if they succeed in what they set out to do they may convert me, so I am lending my vote it’s not floating.

Anyone in any doubt about what big business thinks will actually do well to heed the words of Ricardo, who after the crash caused by Truss, when the markets rose back 30 points he told us they had recovered. In practice 2 days ago they were still down from pre Truss, however a massive increase to the markets over the last couple of days, have at last genuinely got them back to where they were. So basically the recovery came over 2 days on the anticipation of a huge Labour swing and on the reality of a huge Labour swing.

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5 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

The deeper point Ricardo is that if we run our countries ever more so like headless chickens, other countries with alternative but more rational  / longer term thinking forms of government will eventually win out as we misstep. Trump cosying up to Putin is a case in point!

China's government is not remotely rational at the moment. It has become a cult of personality where everybody is afraid to actually tell Xi what's really happening and just do what they're told regardless of whether it works or not. China's heading for a big fall.

Our politics may be polluted by egos, but that's no less true of most of the tyrannies, if not more so.

 

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13 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Nah, I am a Tory voter, embarrassed by my party and what they have done to my country. I will be voting Labour because they are the ones that can get my Tory MP ousted, as she backed Johnson and his lies. If it was Lib Dem in our area as second, I would be voting for them.

As it stands in 5 years time, I suspect I think I will be voting Tory, if they can move back and get rid of the likes of Braverman, Rhys Mogg etc. However to me this is a big chance for Labour, if they succeed in what they set out to do they may convert me, so I am lending my vote it’s not floating.

Anyone in any doubt about what big business thinks will actually do well to heed the words of Ricardo, who after the crash caused by Truss, when the markets rose back 30 points he told us they had recovered. In practice 2 days ago they were still down from pre Truss, however a massive increase to the markets over the last couple of days, have at last genuinely got them back to where they were. So basically the recovery came over 2 days on the anticipation of a huge Labour swing and on the reality of a huge Labour swing.

I think that's quite fair WBB.

It brings me back to an earlier comment about Labour rowing back on some earlier policies I.e. the £28Bn. 

Seem to me this was a.somewhat arbitray figure from 2021 pre Truss fiasco.

What SKS wants to do is under promise but over deliver.

The current populist Brexit Torys have almost totally done the opposite - over promise (there was no plan) and under deliver. Hopeless.

In this way SKS hopes to restore confidence in sane rational politics... and yes convert you for a second and third term!

 

 

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3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think that's quite fair WBB.

It brings me back to an earlier comment about Labour rowing back on some earlier policies I.e. the £28Bn. 

Seem to me this was a.somewhat arbitray figure from 2021 pre Truss fiasco.

What SKS wants to do is under promise but over deliver.

The current populist Brexit Torys have almost totally done the opposite - over promise (there was no plan) and under deliver. Hopeless.

In this way SKS hopes to restore confidence in sane rational politics... and yes convert you for a second and third term!

 

 

I can’t see it, I don’t think Starmer is any more principled than the rest of them. The amount of policy u turns he’s performed already is astonishing, and he’s not even in power yet which can force compromises out of the the most staunch conviction politicians. Despite the absolute atrocity of the current Tories, only half of their lost votes went towards Labour (even with some tactical voting around the Lib Dems low share) which would imply there’s no real love for them either, and they’re largely winning be default.

However the optimist in me does see some positives out of all this. With the Tories losing votes to Reform that could mean they’re not the sole party of the right going forward. Coupled with the Lib Dems actually battling a rather unpopular Labour again after this election and drawing support there we could see the minor parties become much more influential going forward and putting pressure on the major parties to introduce PR in return for their support.

PR does have its faults (tail wagging the dog, MPs not directly accountable to the public etc) but it would at least shake up the major parties who currently get a great deal of support simply through people seeing voting for minor parties as a wasted vote 

Edited by Fen Canary

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14 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

 

I'm  beginning to wonder what the point of the next election is.  DIABD  once said it was the most important election since the Tme of the Lamps or something, but in reality the blue suits will change to grey suits and that's about it.

The reason there is very little difference between the policies of the 2 main parties at the moment is that there is no money. We could argue all day as to why that is but we are where we are. 

The choice we have is therefore between a group of people who have been shown to be corrupt and incompetent or an unproven Labour Party. A sad state of affairs. 

The reason I see it as being the most important election of all time is that the future of the Conservative Party is now in doubt. 

The average age of their membership is 75. Among voters, they rely almost entirely on the baby boom generation with support in the under 40's standing at 14%. They currently rely on funding from a group of people who will all be dead in 10 years along with donations from some very dubious think tanks and foreign individuals. Those donations may well dry up if they lose by a landslide. 

So in 10 years time their members will mainly be dead as will half the people who can be relied on to vote for them. You would think this would lead them towards the middle ground but there is the problem with immigration. 

They have got themselves in a terrible mess with the Reform Party. It's possible that Reform could cost them up to 50 seats which presumably is why they have persevered with the Rwanda policy. Making Rwanda a keystone policy may appease their members and Reform voters, but it is of little interest to the vast number of middle earners who suddenly find they have no money, or a generation of people who can't afford to buy a house. 

When Blair did everything he could to get half of 18 year olds to University people thought he was genuinely trying to improve their lives. He knew what he was actually doing but the Tories only seem to have realised recently that people who go to University vote overwhelmingly for Labour. Talking about graduate prospects recently, Sunak said "why worry about them, they don't vote for us". A bit late now Rishi. 

In short, they need to move to the right to get the 10% Reform vote but General Elections in this country are always won in the middle, not by the extreme right or left. 

The reason it's the most important election ever is that it could realign our politics forever and for those of you that yearn for PR it may be that you'll finally be in with a chance. 

The Conservative Party aren't fighting an election, they're fighting for long term survival. With Braverman pushing for the leadership and Farage in the background it really doesn't look good for them. 

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1 hour ago, dylanisabaddog said:

The reason there is very little difference between the policies of the 2 main parties at the moment is that there is no money. We could argue all day as to why that is but we are where we are. 

The choice we have is therefore between a group of people who have been shown to be corrupt and incompetent or an unproven Labour Party. A sad state of affairs. 

The reason I see it as being the most important election of all time is that the future of the Conservative Party is now in doubt. 

The average age of their membership is 75. Among voters, they rely almost entirely on the baby boom generation with support in the under 40's standing at 14%. They currently rely on funding from a group of people who will all be dead in 10 years along with donations from some very dubious think tanks and foreign individuals. Those donations may well dry up if they lose by a landslide. 

So in 10 years time their members will mainly be dead as will half the people who can be relied on to vote for them. You would think this would lead them towards the middle ground but there is the problem with immigration. 

They have got themselves in a terrible mess with the Reform Party. It's possible that Reform could cost them up to 50 seats which presumably is why they have persevered with the Rwanda policy. Making Rwanda a keystone policy may appease their members and Reform voters, but it is of little interest to the vast number of middle earners who suddenly find they have no money, or a generation of people who can't afford to buy a house. 

When Blair did everything he could to get half of 18 year olds to University people thought he was genuinely trying to improve their lives. He knew what he was actually doing but the Tories only seem to have realised recently that people who go to University vote overwhelmingly for Labour. Talking about graduate prospects recently, Sunak said "why worry about them, they don't vote for us". A bit late now Rishi. 

In short, they need to move to the right to get the 10% Reform vote but General Elections in this country are always won in the middle, not by the extreme right or left. 

The reason it's the most important election ever is that it could realign our politics forever and for those of you that yearn for PR it may be that you'll finally be in with a chance. 

The Conservative Party aren't fighting an election, they're fighting for long term survival. With Braverman pushing for the leadership and Farage in the background it really doesn't look good for them. 

That sentence describes everything that was wrong with Tony Blair. He was happy to saddle an entire generation with crippling debt in order to earn massive devalued degrees, knowing full well that most of this debt will never be repaid and will have to be found through taxpayer money simply to give his party an electoral advantage in the future. Throw in the massive expansion of PFIs that left almost every public service with crippling debts (to be paid after he left office obviously) and the Iraq war and I find it disgusting how much influence the crook still has through his foundation!

Sorry off topic I know but I just hate the bloke with a passion. I’m hoping we’re seeing the beginning of the end of both major parties and the FPTP system but I won’t hold my breath

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1 minute ago, Fen Canary said:

That sentence describes everything that was wrong with Tony Blair. He was happy to saddle an entire generation with crippling debt in order to earn massive devalued degrees, knowing full well that most of this debt will never be repaid and will have to be found through taxpayer money simply to give his party an electoral advantage in the future. Throw in the massive expansion of PFIs that left almost every public service with crippling debts (to be paid after he left office obviously) and the Iraq war and I find it disgusting how much influence the crook still has through his foundation!

Sorry off topic I know but I just hate the bloke with a passion. I’m hoping we’re seeing the beginning of the end of both major parties and the FPTP system but I won’t hold my breath

He won 3 elections. 

Quite how you think you're seeing the end of the Labour Party I'm not sure. 

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Just now, dylanisabaddog said:

He won 3 elections. 

Quite how you think you're seeing the end of the Labour Party I'm not sure. 

He was a skilled politician, but that doesn’t make him a good man.

I just don’t believe there’s any large scale support for Starmer or the party, despite where they’re sitting in the polls. They’re winning by default simply because the Tories are so awful. Even in the recent by elections only half of the lost Tory support went to Labour, and that’s with the tactical voting that left the Lib Dems on only a couple of percent, something that’s not likely to be replicated at a general election.

If Reform can peel away a large chunk of the Tories vote and Lib Dems/Greens (although the Greens do their best to shoot themselves in the foot) do the same from Labour they may be able to force a change to the FPTP system, which would make it much easier for minor parties to get a foothold and stop people voting Labour/Tory simply because doing anything else can be a wasted vote. I think both parties would struggle to regularly hit 25% under PR

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On the contrary, tactical voting is likely to happen on a huge scale at the next general election. It will happen because people are sick of the lies and corruption and want to see the end of this particular version of the Conservative Party.

And although Starmer isn't particularly popular, he's significantly more popular than Sunak. 

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18 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

He was a skilled politician, but that doesn’t make him a good man.

I just don’t believe there’s any large scale support for Starmer or the party, despite where they’re sitting in the polls. They’re winning by default simply because the Tories are so awful. Even in the recent by elections only half of the lost Tory support went to Labour, and that’s with the tactical voting that left the Lib Dems on only a couple of percent, something that’s not likely to be replicated at a general election.

If Reform can peel away a large chunk of the Tories vote and Lib Dems/Greens (although the Greens do their best to shoot themselves in the foot) do the same from Labour they may be able to force a change to the FPTP system, which would make it much easier for minor parties to get a foothold and stop people voting Labour/Tory simply because doing anything else can be a wasted vote. I think both parties would struggle to regularly hit 25% under PR

Want to know the real motives of the private company that is Reform UK? Look no further that this appalling admission from Ben Habib back in 2016 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1758652245724295368

 

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3 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

On the contrary, tactical voting is likely to happen on a huge scale at the next general election. It will happen because people are sick of the lies and corruption and want to see the end of this particular version of the Conservative Party.

And although Starmer isn't particularly popular, he's significantly more popular than Sunak. 

The adage 'both parties are the same' is simply electioneering by the more extreme parties (left or right) for the gullible to vote for them!

There is actually a world of difference in policy and direction between the two major parties.

As to Reform and the Tories - given the Tory ailing/failing elderly voter base I do just wonder who Reform actually attracts? Their policy seems to be anti immigration and slash taxes. I guess that means slashing public service and benefits too (the majority of which go to the elderly via pensions / NHS / Care). Seems to me a very bad case of turkeys voting for Christmas. 

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

There is actually a world of difference in policy and direction between the two major parties.

Go on then....

 

I mean actual policies, not nice ideas, good intentions and directions of travel. Anyone can say we need an industrial strategy that delivers peace, prosperity and infinite rice pudding but at some point those who want to be in charge will need to turn words into a plan of action, and the election is quite close now.

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51 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Go on then....

 

I mean actual policies, not nice ideas, good intentions and directions of travel. Anyone can say we need an industrial strategy that delivers peace, prosperity and infinite rice pudding but at some point those who want to be in charge will need to turn words into a plan of action, and the election is quite close now.

First - apart from Rwanda can you actually name any extant Tory policies? Leveling up seems dead. Oh yes Rishi's 5 promises to be judged upon -  of which only 2 seem likely  -  inflation (not really under his control) and reducing (not stopping) the boats - largely due to Albania agreement and the weather (Albania is similar to extant Labour policy). Growing the economy (Fail) / NHS lists (FAIL) / Reducing Debt (FAIL).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/65647308

Please name Tory polices to compare with?

Edited by Yellow Fever

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20 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

The current 'Green's and their associates have rather overplayed their hand with Extinction Rebellion, Just Stop Oil and so on

Good on em, on and on 

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On 16/02/2024 at 08:33, horsefly said:

The Wellingborough result was an astonishing victory for Labour. The very strong Brexit voting constituency saw a drop of 37.6% in the Tory vote, and a 28% swing to Labour. The combined right-wing vote of the Tories and Reform still got nowhere near the Labour total. That strongly suggests people are sick and tired of gaslighting right-wing bigotry and culture wars, the corruption and utter incompetence of 14-years of Tory government, and the dreadful failure of Brexit. 

The Kingswood result saw a massive 16.4% swing to Labour. Reform UK, who pumped huge amounts of money and effort into their campaign, came a poor 3rd having performed worse than UKIP in 2015. What is clear is that Reform UK will not win a single seat at the next general election, and the Tories are going to get their ar*ses well and truly kicked.

For the record; I am Emily Thornberry.

Almost like a lot of Brexit was down to "take back control!" only for the Tories to oversea record immigration levels and migrants being housed in hotels for free.

You can bet the majority who voted Tory for Boris years ago who voted Labour in these by elections were not really voting for Keir or Labour but just like those voting reform it was a protest vote.

Edited by cambridgeshire canary

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2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

The adage 'both parties are the same' is simply electioneering by the more extreme parties (left or right) for the gullible to vote for them!

There is actually a world of difference in policy and direction between the two major parties.

As to Reform and the Tories - given the Tory ailing/failing elderly voter base I do just wonder who Reform actually attracts? Their policy seems to be anti immigration and slash taxes. I guess that means slashing public service and benefits too (the majority of which go to the elderly via pensions / NHS / Care). Seems to me a very bad case of turkeys voting for Christmas. 

Farage is in favour of privatising the NHS

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58 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

First - apart from Rwanda can you actually name any extant Tory policies? Leveling up seems dead. Oh yes Rishi's 5 promises to be judged upon -  of which only 2 seem likely  -  inflation (not really under his control) and reducing (not stopping) the boats - largely due to Albania agreement and the weather (Albania is similar to extant Labour policy). Growing the economy (Fail) / NHS lists (FAIL) / Reducing Debt (FAIL).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/65647308

Please name Tory polices to compare with?

You missed

Trying not to be such a cnut (failed miserably) 

Not making my wife richer (failed miserably) 

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7 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Farage is in favour of privatising the NHS

You're not suggesting that the privatisation of water and railways etc, has been anything other than a roaring success, are you?

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1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

Go on then....

 

I mean actual policies, not nice ideas, good intentions and directions of travel. Anyone can say we need an industrial strategy that delivers peace, prosperity and infinite rice pudding but at some point those who want to be in charge will need to turn words into a plan of action, and the election is quite close now.

Politics is a bit like football. Sometimes the opposition is so awful that you just don't take any risks and let them engineer their own downfall. 

When the opposition keep scoring own goals why on earth would you show them how to improve?  They'll just take your advice and bang one in at the other end. 

And yes, they really are that awful. This is the most incompetent government in my lifetime. 

Edited by dylanisabaddog

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24 minutes ago, cambridgeshire canary said:

Almost like a lot of Brexit was down to "take back control!" only for the Tories to oversea record immigration levels and migrants being housed in hotels for free.

You can bet the majority who voted Tory for Boris years ago who voted Labour in these by elections were not really voting for Keir or Labour but just like those voting reform it was a protest vote.

It's an old truism that opposition parties don't win elections, governments lose them. 

Edited by horsefly

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3 minutes ago, horsefly said:

You're not suggesting that the privatisation of water and railways etc, has been anything other than a roaring success, are you?

Obviously not. In fact I forgot to mention that after the referendum, Farage made friends with Trump in an attempt to sell the NHS to America. God bless America. 

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3 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Obviously not. In fact I forgot to mention that after the referendum, Farage made friends with Trump in an attempt to sell the NHS to America. God bless America. 

There's nothing that man won't sacrifice for the sake of his bank balance the nation

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2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

First - apart from Rwanda can you actually name any extant Tory policies? Leveling up seems dead. Oh yes Rishi's 5 promises to be judged upon -  of which only 2 seem likely  -  inflation (not really under his control) and reducing (not stopping) the boats - largely due to Albania agreement and the weather (Albania is similar to extant Labour policy). Growing the economy (Fail) / NHS lists (FAIL) / Reducing Debt (FAIL).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/65647308

Please name Tory polices to compare with?

As government everything they do is the result of a policy. 

Whether its a policy type to maintain tax rates as they are, keep budgets constant or to invest new money in this, that or the other it is a policy decision. I expect opposition to say what they would do differently, and if they can't point to anything tangible then we may as well vote on the basis of who is the best looking.

Doing exactly the same as the last lot will only deliver more of the same. An economy made up of millions or billions of people doing  trillions of transactions isn't suddenly going to change course because the new person in the treasury asks to be called Rachel rather than secretary of state and nor do millions of public sector workers suddenly become incredible at their jobs just because a house in London has a new tenant.  The way you drive change is to make change.   You know this to be true.

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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19 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

As government everything they do is the result of a policy. 

Whether its a policy type to maintain tax rates as they are, keep budgets constant or to invest new money in this, that or the other it is a policy decision. I expect opposition to say what they would do differently, and if they can't point to anything tangible then we may as well vote on the basis of who is the best looking.

Doing exactly the same as the last lot will only deliver more of the same. An economy made up of millions or billions of people doing  trillions of transactions isn't suddenly going to change course because the new person in the treasury asks to be called Rachel rather than secretary of state and nor do millions of public sector workers suddenly become incredible at their jobs just because a house in London has a new tenant.  The way you drive change is to make change.   You know this to be true.

 

I think you are arguing a very shallow point here.

By policy with an election looming most of us mean big ideas, how to change society, improve the economy etc. Major themes.

The current lot, on their third failing 'mini-manifesto' or PM since the election seem to have run out of ideas beyond the culture wars and Rishi's failing five. They engender no hope for the future least of all for the young needing homes.

Labour by contrast is actually filling out all sorts of bold ideas and yes some by necessity get trimmed back but the ideas and directions are out there nevertheless (hence they can and are attacked by the Tory's so just can't be the 'same' unless you think the Tories are self harming - perhaps so 😉) - many of them Green in origin  (British Energy etc). It's chalk'n'cheese comparing an old tired and deranged backward looking party devoid of ideas yet pandering ever more to it's 'boomer' base to a party that by necessity has already renewed itself by asking and answering with practical deliverable policies what is required for the UK in 21st century. The one elephant in the room that Labour understandably has stayed away from is Brexit and the SM/CU - that will be for the election after!

Where I would agree with you is that the Green's are a long way left of Labour on matters generally so beyond a pure protest vote in a by-election I can never understand any Tory voting Green. Green as you suggest would be better as a politically neutral party beyond it's green policies. 

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On 17/02/2024 at 09:46, Fen Canary said:

That sentence describes everything that was wrong with Tony Blair. He was happy to saddle an entire generation with crippling debt in order to earn massive devalued degrees, knowing full well that most of this debt will never be repaid and will have to be found through taxpayer money simply to give his party an electoral advantage in the future. Throw in the massive expansion of PFIs that left almost every public service with crippling debts (to be paid after he left office obviously) and the Iraq war and I find it disgusting how much influence the crook still has through his foundation!

Sorry off topic I know but I just hate the bloke with a passion. I’m hoping we’re seeing the beginning of the end of both major parties and the FPTP system but I won’t hold my breath

Sorry but that's hopelessly inaccurate. Blair didn't saddle a whole generation with huge debt, that was David Cameron and Nick Clegg. 

You obviously dislike Blair but I look back fondly at a time where there was less hate and division, when I could get a GP appointment the next day and a hospital appointment the next week. 

Don't worry about seeing the end of both major political parties. It's just the future of one you should worry about. 

And if you still want PR, think back to the time when Clegg cheated a whole country. 

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29 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Sorry but that's hopelessly inaccurate. Blair didn't saddle a whole generation with huge debt, that was David Cameron and Nick Clegg. 

You obviously dislike Blair but I look back fondly at a time where there was less hate and division, when I could get a GP appointment the next day and a hospital appointment the next week. 

Don't worry about seeing the end of both major political parties. It's just the future of one you should worry about. 

And if you still want PR, think back to the time when Clegg cheated a whole country. 

Tuition fees were first introduced under Tony Blair and have been rising ever since. The Tories and Lib Dems are just as culpable but the rot started under Blair.

How many billions have been spent servicing the debts incurred from his use of PFI’s? How many extra healthcare facilities could have been built if we hadn’t had to hand over all that cash to private interests simply because of Blair’s short termism? 

The fact you can no longer see a doctor may have something to do with the extra 10 million people who have arrived in the last 20 years with very little accompanying infrastructure.

I hate Blair, and I hate the fact I voted for him (although I feel that way about most of those I vote for, I tend to have to pick the least worst option at the time). He was simply a continuation of Thatcherism 

 

 

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