Sutton turns!

[ged in the onion bag 856]

1 hour ago, BigFish said:

I don't disagree with any of this @ged in the onion bag. What is doesn't take into account is the gap between the EPL and the Chumps. Our team is not bad at second tier level and a couple of loans could well get us up (as it done for a number of teams, us included if you think of Skipp). But not a single member of that squad would get into an "established" EPL team.

Which is the point I made elsewhere, what’s the point of going up only to experience the hurt that will follow.   Bear in mind we had no money or quality to show from the last promotion….. why would it be any different?

 

We need to develop a team capable of competing first.   That’s way off (further away IMO) than the day Farke arrived) but will definitely not happen while the expectations remain promotion….   It needs astute management, a plan, patience and bravery on and off the pitch.

At least that way, the fans will have something to buy into.

[BigFish 1,988]

8 minutes ago, ged in the onion bag said:

Which is the point I made elsewhere, what’s the point of going up only to experience the hurt that will follow.   Bear in mind we had no money or quality to show from the last promotion….. why would it be any different?

 

We need to develop a team capable of competing first.   That’s way off (further away IMO) than the day Farke arrived) but will definitely not happen while the expectations remain promotion….   It needs astute management, a plan, patience and bravery on and off the pitch.

At least that way, the fans will have something to buy into.

I broadly agree with you, although I think there is a significant number among the fanbase that lack your foresight and patience.

[ged in the onion bag 856]

43 minutes ago, BigFish said:

I broadly agree with you, although I think there is a significant number among the fanbase that lack your foresight and patience.

They’d all come around with positive changes supported by clear messages and transparency.    
 

It happened before and we were close to succeeding but got the timing wrong.   I have a feeling things would be much different had we taken another season to achieve the first of Farke’s promotions.   We would have been ready then!   
 

I don’t think the management are capable of such positive changes now though.    Time and circumstances have taken its toll on all of them.

Edited October 27, 2023 by ged in the onion bag

[Robert N. LiM 4,429]

Really good thread, with some very thoughtful comments. Have been enjoying the conversation between @BigFish and @ged in the onion bag especially.

I think we're basically stuck between two different time-frames. The board and the Sporting Director are working on a medium to long term basis, what Stuart Webber once referred to as 'the infinite game'. In that world, it makes sense for there to be a handover period between D&M and the Attanasios, and a handover period between Webber and Knapper.

But the coach's job is to win the game on Saturday.

And we're stuck between those two different worlds at the moment.

Whatever we think of Wagner, I think there's general agreement that it would be absurd for Webber to appoint another permanent coach. So if we get rid of Wagner now, he'd have to be replaced by an interim coach. I'm not really sure how this gets us further forward, though I guess it might stop the rot. Either way we're waiting for Knapper to come in and outline how he sees us moving forward: personally I'm with @ged in the onion bag that we should be aiming for a long-term plan, rather than promotion or bust. We were pretty close to doing it with Webber/Farke, but events and mistakes derailed us. Whether we like it or not, we have to start again.

I said on another thread that I basically thought Wagner is the interim coach, a safe appointment (or so he thought!) by Webber to tide us over until the new SD comes in to take us into a new era. And on a different thread someone (@repman?) made the point that this summer's signings support that view - old lags who should be able to do a job while promising youngsters (such as Warner and Hills?) develop, and to hold the fort before this new era begins. On one level that makes sense, but it's run up against two problems: Wagner not being as good as Webber hoped, and fan frustration with the sense of us just treading water, which we've essentially been doing since it was clear Dean Smith wasn't going to get us promoted (some would say longer than that...).

@hogesar said that there's no point in sacking Wagner if the squad is not good enough. There's obviously some truth in that (especially right now) but I think there might be a point if

(a) we think we're going to be dragged into a relegation fight under him; or

(b) if he has proved he is clearly not the man to take the team forward under the new SD.

Despite general doom and gloom I do find it hard to believe that we'll be anywhere near a relegation battle, but I'm pretty close to thinking that (b) is the case. So then the question is: do we persist with him as an interim coach until Knapper gets his feet under the table, or do we cut our losses now and get a caretaker coach to do that job?

Either way, I'm not sure anyone can see Wagner as the long-term coach of this team when we have a new SD: or can you?

 

[king canary 7,633]

12 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Really good thread, with some very thoughtful comments. Have been enjoying the conversation between @BigFish and @ged in the onion bag especially.

I think we're basically stuck between two different time-frames. The board and the Sporting Director are working on a medium to long term basis, what Stuart Webber once referred to as 'the infinite game'. In that world, it makes sense for there to be a handover period between D&M and the Attanasios, and a handover period between Webber and Knapper.

But the coach's job is to win the game on Saturday.

And we're stuck between those two different worlds at the moment.

Whatever we think of Wagner, I think there's general agreement that it would be absurd for Webber to appoint another permanent coach. So if we get rid of Wagner now, he'd have to be replaced by an interim coach. I'm not really sure how this gets us further forward, though I guess it might stop the rot. Either way we're waiting for Knapper to come in and outline how he sees us moving forward: personally I'm with @ged in the onion bag that we should be aiming for a long-term plan, rather than promotion or bust. We were pretty close to doing it with Webber/Farke, but events and mistakes derailed us. Whether we like it or not, we have to start again.

I said on another thread that I basically thought Wagner is the interim coach, a safe appointment (or so he thought!) by Webber to tide us over until the new SD comes in to take us into a new era. And on a different thread someone (@repman?) made the point that this summer's signings support that view - old lags who should be able to do a job while promising youngsters (such as Warner and Hills?) develop, and to hold the fort before this new era begins. On one level that makes sense, but it's run up against two problems: Wagner not being as good as Webber hoped, and fan frustration with the sense of us just treading water, which we've essentially been doing since it was clear Dean Smith wasn't going to get us promoted (some would say longer than that...).

@hogesar said that there's no point in sacking Wagner if the squad is not good enough. There's obviously some truth in that (especially right now) but I think there might be a point if

(a) we think we're going to be dragged into a relegation fight under him; or

(b) if he has proved he is clearly not the man to take the team forward under the new SD.

Despite general doom and gloom I do find it hard to believe that we'll be anywhere near a relegation battle, but I'm pretty close to thinking that (b) is the case. So then the question is: do we persist with him as an interim coach until Knapper gets his feet under the table, or do we cut our losses now and get a caretaker coach to do that job?

Either way, I'm not sure anyone can see Wagner as the long-term coach of this team when we have a new SD: or can you?

 

A good summary overall.

I think the big unknown of this handover period is who is making key decisions. If Knapper comes in day one and says 'I want Wagner out and to hire my own man' is that what will happen? Does Webber get a say? I think there is a concern that this handover scenario means we remain in limbo until it is all over. 

The other big unknown in here is the ownership situation. Financially is it business as usual next season? If so it makes sense to try and maximise this season before our budget shrinks further and we likely lose Sara and Rowe. However, it could be that the American contingent are willing to put some money in to allow us to either keep our stars one more year or to not have to replace them on the cheap if they do go. In which case, maybe it makes sense to almost write this season off, either giving Wagner more time or cutting him loose at the supposed end point of his contract in January with a temporary manager to steady the ship as Knapper makes his decision on HC.

I'm all for looking at the long term solution but we also have to be realistic that football, especially at this level, does not lend itself to long term planning. Any time we have an excellent player we have to realise we've likely got them for one or two seasons at most without progress. So writing this season off in November should only be done if we're confident in what we'll have next season.

[Robert N. LiM 4,429]

really appreciate that response, @king canary - lots of good sense as always.

[repman 635]

9 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

Has his baseball team actually been successful? I’ll admit my knowledge of American sports is almost non existent but as far as I know there’s no danger of ever getting relegated or falling by the wayside, so essentially the owners have to do is find new ways of raising money. How many of these ideas would transfer from Americans to much more tribal traditionalist football fans I don’t know, perhaps somebody who knows about these things could tell me what is actually transferable from baseball to a mid level football team 

Compared to his baseball team's history, the last few years have been incredibly successful. The Brewers have only made the playoffs 9 times in their history, 7 of which have been under his ownership. They've also reached the playoffs in 5 of the last 6 seasons. The Brewers are seen as one of the more forward thinking, data heavy teams in the sport and this started to really take hold when they appointed a new GM in 2015 who was very much of the moneyball ilk. I don't think it's outrageous to suggest Attanasio will want the same sort of thing going on here. The Brewers have punched above their weight over the last few years, since 2017 they've had the 6th most wins in the sport while always being in the bottom half in terms of payroll. 

We don't know how much involvement Attanasio has had in the appointment of Knapper but to me he certainly fits the mould of what he would want if he was looking to recreate the model that has worked with the Brewers. Arsenal are one of the most forward thinking clubs with regards to data (so much so they actually bought out an early stats football company, StatDNA). Knapper was at Arsenal throughout that, so it seems like he will, at minimum, have some sort of familiarity with it.

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,225]

1 hour ago, king canary said:

A good summary overall.

I think the big unknown of this handover period is who is making key decisions. If Knapper comes in day one and says 'I want Wagner out and to hire my own man' is that what will happen? Does Webber get a say? I think there is a concern that this handover scenario means we remain in limbo until it is all over. 

The other big unknown in here is the ownership situation. Financially is it business as usual next season? If so it makes sense to try and maximise this season before our budget shrinks further and we likely lose Sara and Rowe. However, it could be that the American contingent are willing to put some money in to allow us to either keep our stars one more year or to not have to replace them on the cheap if they do go. In which case, maybe it makes sense to almost write this season off, either giving Wagner more time or cutting him loose at the supposed end point of his contract in January with a temporary manager to steady the ship as Knapper makes his decision on HC.

I'm all for looking at the long term solution but we also have to be realistic that football, especially at this level, does not lend itself to long term planning. Any time we have an excellent player we have to realise we've likely got them for one or two seasons at most without progress. So writing this season off in November should only be done if we're confident in what we'll have next season.

Nice King. I’ll have a go at answering that. 

American rosters have long recognised, valued and super-rewarded ‘weapons’. 

I would be highly, highly surprised to see a Buendia sold at the point of promotion under Attanasio for example.

Money will not be thrown around, but keeping Buendia is actually cheap at that point  (as Attanasio will know) and very difficult to replace. 

One can always point to Armageddon scenarios, though a Buendia simply does not lose 100% of his value by staying a year or two longer. Thus it becomes about how much do you need cash right now? Offering delayed payment is - sort of - free. You are just waiting longer to get it.

Here is a concrete example of how sporting realities can be completely different if you do not have to compulsively adhere to exact self-sustainability. It does not actually even have to involve ‘the injection of funds’. 

Parma 
 

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Parma Ham's gone mouldy

[ged in the onion bag 856]

1 hour ago, king canary said:

A good summary overall.

I think the big unknown of this handover period is who is making key decisions. If Knapper comes in day one and says 'I want Wagner out and to hire my own man' is that what will happen? Does Webber get a say? I think there is a concern that this handover scenario means we remain in limbo until it is all over. 

The other big unknown in here is the ownership situation. Financially is it business as usual next season? If so it makes sense to try and maximise this season before our budget shrinks further and we likely lose Sara and Rowe. However, it could be that the American contingent are willing to put some money in to allow us to either keep our stars one more year or to not have to replace them on the cheap if they do go. In which case, maybe it makes sense to almost write this season off, either giving Wagner more time or cutting him loose at the supposed end point of his contract in January with a temporary manager to steady the ship as Knapper makes his decision on HC.

I'm all for looking at the long term solution but we also have to be realistic that football, especially at this level, does not lend itself to long term planning. Any time we have an excellent player we have to realise we've likely got them for one or two seasons at most without progress. So writing this season off in November should only be done if we're confident in what we'll have next season.

I don't think being in limbo at present is a bad thing, at least we will have Wagner trying his best and hopefully that's good enough to avoid getting dragged down into a relegation fight.    Take your point about losing players but frankly, that's the gamble we will have to take as currently, the club and team are in freefall and the only way out is a reset in my view.    These players aren't getting us much higher than our current position and talk of top 6 beggars belief.    What really is the point of it?     Of course, Buendia got us promotion last time and that wasn't enough for him to stay... and we let him go pretty much without a fight, and where is all the promotion money?   

We succeeding in bucking the trend once before and gained two promotions.   It can be done.   Football most definitely lends itself to long term planning if you have competent people in the job.    Moreover, its important to keep them.    Could we really not offer Keith Scott something similar to what he was offered at Middlesborough when we knew we have a really good operator.   Similar with Buendia, we have to bust a gut to keep the best people. 

The Americans don't seem that affluent (in English football terms) that they will make much of a difference here in any event. 

[ged in the onion bag 856]

8 minutes ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Nice King. I’ll have a go at answering that. 

American rosters have long recognised, valued and super-rewarded ‘weapons’. 

I would be highly, highly surprised to see a Buendia sold at the point of promotion under Attanasio for example.

Money will not be thrown around, but keeping Buendia is actually cheap at that point  (as Attanasio will know) and very difficult to replace. 

One can always point to Armageddon scenarios, though a Buendia simply does not lose 100% of his value by staying a year or two longer. Thus it becomes about how much do you need cash right now? Offering delayed payment is - sort of - free. You are just waiting longer to get it.

Here is a concrete example of how sporting realities can be completely different if you do not have to compulsively adhere to exact self-sustainability. It does not actually even have to involve ‘the injection of funds’. 

Parma 
 

 

I genuinely posted my response to KingCanary before seeing this comment above.   Uncanny!

[Monty13 2,235]

1 hour ago, king canary said:

A good summary overall.

I think the big unknown of this handover period is who is making key decisions. If Knapper comes in day one and says 'I want Wagner out and to hire my own man' is that what will happen? Does Webber get a say? I think there is a concern that this handover scenario means we remain in limbo until it is all over. 

The other big unknown in here is the ownership situation. Financially is it business as usual next season? If so it makes sense to try and maximise this season before our budget shrinks further and we likely lose Sara and Rowe. However, it could be that the American contingent are willing to put some money in to allow us to either keep our stars one more year or to not have to replace them on the cheap if they do go. In which case, maybe it makes sense to almost write this season off, either giving Wagner more time or cutting him loose at the supposed end point of his contract in January with a temporary manager to steady the ship as Knapper makes his decision on HC.

I'm all for looking at the long term solution but we also have to be realistic that football, especially at this level, does not lend itself to long term planning. Any time we have an excellent player we have to realise we've likely got them for one or two seasons at most without progress. So writing this season off in November should only be done if we're confident in what we'll have next season.

I really don’t understand the argument for a handover period, Knappers no fool he has by all accounts been highly involved at the top of the Arsenal backroom for some time.

Ok he hasn’t done the role but what does he need Webber for exactly? He’s got Neil Adams to help him navigate NCFC specifics and presumably some pretty high profile names he can call for some advice.

Can’t imagine it’s anything but frustrating when you want to come in and make your mark to have the old boss hanging around.

[king canary 7,633]

34 minutes ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Here is a concrete example of how sporting realities can be completely different if you do not have to compulsively adhere to exact self-sustainability. It does not actually even have to involve ‘the injection of funds’.

Yes, totally agree, I've made similar points before. It isn't necessarily about spending huge sums on new players, it is about being able to say no to bids, offer competitive contracts to those already there or eventually not have to make a choice between selling a key players and a competitive Premier League budget.

[ged in the onion bag 856]

3 minutes ago, king canary said:

Yes, totally agree, I've made similar points before. It isn't necessarily about spending huge sums on new players, it is about being able to say no to bids, offer competitive contracts to those already there or eventually not have to make a choice between selling a key players and a competitive Premier League budget.

.. but this is at odds with what you wrote earlier!    

 

1 hour ago, king canary said:

I'm all for looking at the long term solution but we also have to be realistic that football, especially at this level, does not lend itself to long term planning. Any time we have an excellent player we have to realise we've likely got them for one or two seasons at most without progress. So writing this season off in November should only be done if we're confident in what we'll have next season.

 

[king canary 7,633]

Just now, ged in the onion bag said:

.. but this is at odds with what you wrote earlier!    

 

 

No it isn't?

Football at this level still is tough to plan long term even with money. Your best players want to progress, you can only keep them for so long. A bit more money might have allowed us to keep Emi for another season or keep Sara one more year but that isn't long term.

[king canary 7,633]

7 minutes ago, Monty13 said:

I really don’t understand the argument for a handover period, Knappers no fool he has by all accounts been highly involved at the top of the Arsenal backroom for some time.

Ok he hasn’t done the role but what does he need Webber for exactly? He’s got Neil Adams to help him navigate NCFC specifics and presumably some pretty high profile names he can call for some advice.

Can’t imagine it’s anything but frustrating when you want to come in and make your mark to have the old boss hanging around.

Yeah I find it similarly perplexing.

I guess there may be some wheels in motions on potential targets for January but I'd hope Knapper has a veto on any as he shouldn't have to come in and have someone elses players joining.

[ged in the onion bag 856]

43 minutes ago, king canary said:

No it isn't?

Football at this level still is tough to plan long term even with money. Your best players want to progress, you can only keep them for so long. A bit more money might have allowed us to keep Emi for another season or keep Sara one more year but that isn't long term.

am referring to the element of keeping players who have signed contracts in good faith and only selling them on our terms, not theirs.... (and keeping scouts / coaches who prove very competent) by offering better money / roles.    We give opportunities and should demand loyalty in return.... appreciate that is easier to do when the team is in a state of progression and that's where we need to get back too in the first instance.    

Selling players for relative peanuts like Omobamidele and Mumba (without even trying him in the position he excelled last season) is never going to help either.  

I believe you can still plan and have continuous development long-term even allowing for sales.   Like I say though, it needs competent people making the decisions and choices.    

[Monty13 2,235]

2 hours ago, king canary said:

Yeah I find it similarly perplexing.

I guess there may be some wheels in motions on potential targets for January but I'd hope Knapper has a veto on any as he shouldn't have to come in and have someone elses players joining.

Imagine will only be loans anyway. No way we should be bringing anyone in permanently until summer based on what’s happening.

[king canary 7,633]

2 hours ago, ged in the onion bag said:

am referring to the element of keeping players who have signed contracts in good faith and only selling them on our terms, not theirs.... (and keeping scouts / coaches who prove very competent) by offering better money / roles.    We give opportunities and should demand loyalty in return.... appreciate that is easier to do when the team is in a state of progression and that's where we need to get back too in the first instance.    

Selling players for relative peanuts like Omobamidele and Mumba (without even trying him in the position he excelled last season) is never going to help either.  

I believe you can still plan and have continuous development long-term even allowing for sales.   Like I say though, it needs competent people making the decisions and choices.    

You can have a long term strategy for sure- sometimes though I've seen people suggest long term team building, ie find a couple of gems, add a couple more the next year etc etc as if those initial gems are going to be willing to wait 4 or 5 years for the team to be competitive at the top level, which just isn't possible.

[daly 506]

7 hours ago, ged in the onion bag said:

It’s similar to our country.   We need change now, not wait for an election… it’s only going to get worse.    
 

It wasn’t just this summer Shef!   I was saying it last summer too.   

If you think it’s bad now wait till the next crowd get in 

 

[glory.win or die. 270]

The hand over thing is pathetic.

Let's not forget Webber actually quit in January but only made that public in June.

We should have had  a new SD in place for the summer ready for this season.

[ged in the onion bag 856]

2 hours ago, daly said:

If you think it’s bad now wait till the next crowd get in 

 

You seriously think any party could be worse than this bunch of corrupt incompetents.    

Whoever takes over has massive problems to sort out and they are likely to find that very difficult but I'd rather have people inspired to try and sort it out rather than take everything they can (look after their mates) and destroy what we had.   I'd rather see some integrity and shared optimism.   You won't get that with this lot.    

You might be surprised with what we get.... have an open mind at least.  

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by ged in the onion bag

[Fen Canary 851]

9 hours ago, repman said:

Compared to his baseball team's history, the last few years have been incredibly successful. The Brewers have only made the playoffs 9 times in their history, 7 of which have been under his ownership. They've also reached the playoffs in 5 of the last 6 seasons. The Brewers are seen as one of the more forward thinking, data heavy teams in the sport and this started to really take hold when they appointed a new GM in 2015 who was very much of the moneyball ilk. I don't think it's outrageous to suggest Attanasio will want the same sort of thing going on here. The Brewers have punched above their weight over the last few years, since 2017 they've had the 6th most wins in the sport while always being in the bottom half in terms of payroll. 

We don't know how much involvement Attanasio has had in the appointment of Knapper but to me he certainly fits the mould of what he would want if he was looking to recreate the model that has worked with the Brewers. Arsenal are one of the most forward thinking clubs with regards to data (so much so they actually bought out an early stats football company, StatDNA). Knapper was at Arsenal throughout that, so it seems like he will, at minimum, have some sort of familiarity with it.

Thanks, that’s what I was after. However I still have my doubts as to how well that transfers to football from baseball.

Baseball is a team sport but one that is a series of individual battles of the pitcher vs batsmen. So I think it’s easier to use stats to build a side (if you have x amount of dollars to spend you can buy 5 average players or 2 superstars and 3 poor ones and know on average which would get you the most home runs).

Football on the other hand is much more interconnected, with the players much more reliant on the skills and weaknesses of their teammates in building a team that works well together. In our case Pukki without Buendia was a shadow of the player he was with him. Earnshaw was a good striker for us but put him in a Tony Pulis long ball side he’d have been worse than useless. Lampard and Gerrard were both world class players but their styles meant they never gelled particularly well for England. I’m still sceptical as to how useful being overly reliant on stats would be. That xG for instance is a total waste of time