When will the UK rejoin the EU?

[Creative Midfielder 2,002]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Scotland first has to create its own currency from scratch, create diplomatic services, military, then it has to contend with being neither part of the UK, nor part of the EU, nor having its own WTO schedules, then, if it does join the EU it has to join the Euro (bet that will go down well), then it will have to come to terms with having a hard border with England, creating trade friction with its largest market, then it will have to do what Ireland is doing and start building more expensive ferry routes to the continent instead of using the UK land bridge Then it will have to hand over all of its fisheries to the EU again.
 

That's a pretty bizarre view in general, if you'll forgive me for saying so, but especially the bit about creating their own currency only to then adopt the Euro.

I can't imagine any circumstances in which they would want to create their own currency, that makes no sense at all in the 21st century and whether they ultimately join the Euro is a decision they can make if it looks beneficial to them at the time (which it might). That one of the entry conditions for new EU members is to adopt the Euro is a purely theoretical requirement rather than a practical one, as I'm sure you are well aware.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,585]

11 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

That's a pretty bizarre view in general, if you'll forgive me for saying so, but especially the bit about creating their own currency only to then adopt the Euro.

I can't imagine any circumstances in which they would want to create their own currency, that makes no sense at all in the 21st century and whether they ultimately join the Euro is a decision they can make if it looks beneficial to them at the time (which it might). That one of the entry conditions for new EU members is to adopt the Euro is a purely theoretical requirement rather than a practical one, as I'm sure you are well aware.

It would be impossible to directly enter the Euro because there's no way that Scotland could align its fiscal policies to permit a switch to the Euro unless it was starting from a position of complete fiscal autonomy, which would require that it first has its own currency; to allow Scotland simply to jump straight from Sterling to the Euro would dispense with any pretense that there was any fiscal integrity to the Euro in the first place. 

[Creative Midfielder 2,002]

5 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

It would be impossible to directly enter the Euro because there's no way that Scotland could align its fiscal policies to permit a switch to the Euro unless it was starting from a position of complete fiscal autonomy, which would require that it first has its own currency; to allow Scotland simply to jump straight from Sterling to the Euro would dispense with any pretense that there was any fiscal integrity to the Euro in the first place. 

You are talking about the theoretical rules again - for such a legally based organisation the EU can be extremely flexible, and even imaginative, when motivated to be so and I think you would find that in the case of an independent Scotland they would be just that.

Admittedly the EU certainly wouldn't want a rerun of the Greek admittance fiasco but then Scotland is a completely different kettle of fish to Greece of 20 years ago and Brussels has also learnt a huge amount in the last 20 years - in the end it will depend on the political will/motivation of the EU.

After all, if nothing else, Brexit has demonstrated very clearly that politics nowadays trumps economics despite what we might have thought a few years ago.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,585]

15 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

You are talking about the theoretical rules again - for such a legally based organisation the EU can be extremely flexible, and even imaginative, when motivated to be so and I think you would find that in the case of an independent Scotland they would be just that.

Admittedly the EU certainly wouldn't want a rerun of the Greek admittance fiasco but then Scotland is a completely different kettle of fish to Greece of 20 years ago and Brussels has also learnt a huge amount in the last 20 years - in the end it will depend on the political will/motivation of the EU.

After all, if nothing else, Brexit has demonstrated very clearly that politics nowadays trumps economics despite what we might have thought a few years ago.

https://www.herbertsmithfreehills.com/latest-thinking/scottish-independence-and-eu-membership-process-and-implications

If it wanted to be that flexible to just abandon rules to that extent then it would need unanimity and Spain, for one, would be very nervous about being seen to be facilitating the breakup of another state in this way. 

I should also add that the SNP's own proposals on the matter are in line with what I described. 

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19747502.snp-back-motion-speed-independent-scotland-adopting-currency/

The other issue, of course, would be joining Schengen, which would require that Scotland impose a hard border with England. To avoid that, they'd have to secure an opt-out to Schengen, which is almost unimaginable for a new member given the EU's ambitions on that score. 

 

 

Edited December 4, 2021 by littleyellowbirdie

[PurpleCanary 5,580]

23 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

It's notable that the Republic of Ireland has massively increased the amount of trade to the continent it's sending to the EU via longer RORO routes instead of the UK land bridge now that customs checks are in place; the EU is prioritising hurting the EU over the interests of the Republic of Ireland, an EU state, which doesn't say a lot for EU solidarity really. 

Either you are being deliberately obtuse or you simply do not understand the fundamental point behind all that has gone on ever since the UK voted to leave the EU.

Above everything else the EU's priority was and is to protect the integrity of the single market of 27 EU nations currently and potentially with more countries in the future. By doing that generally and specifically in that case of trade the EU is defending the interests of the Irish Republic. Something, as opinion polls continue to show, the Irish Republic understands.

[Yellow Fever 3,818]

32 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

https://www.herbertsmithfreehills.com/latest-thinking/scottish-independence-and-eu-membership-process-and-implications

If it wanted to be that flexible to just abandon rules to that extent then it would need unanimity and Spain, for one, would be very nervous about being seen to be facilitating the breakup of another state in this way. 

I should also add that the SNP's own proposals on the matter are in line with what I described. 

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19747502.snp-back-motion-speed-independent-scotland-adopting-currency/

The other issue, of course, would be joining Schengen, which would require that Scotland impose a hard border with England. To avoid that, they'd have to secure an opt-out to Schengen, which is almost unimaginable for a new member given the EU's ambitions on that score. 

 

 

Where there's a will there's a way.

Brexiteers of all people should understand this.

Scotland would be welcomed back with open arms. It would be England and the vassal Welsh state that would be left wondering what their future holds.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Herman 9,820]

9 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Either you are being deliberately obtuse or you simply do not understand the fundamental point behind all that has gone on ever since the UK voted to leave the EU.

Above everything else the EU's priority was and is to protect the integrity of the single market of 27 EU nations currently and potentially with more countries in the future. By doing that generally and specifically in that case of trade the EU is defending the interests of the Irish Republic. Something, as opinion polls continue to show, the Irish Republic understands.

All reports suggest that Ireland has benefitted greatly from EU membership and help. I'm not sure how anyone can paint it any differently.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/rosslare-europort-wexford-brexit-trade-uk-eu-302932/

[Yellow Fever 3,818]

22 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Where there's a will there's a way.

Brexiteers of all people should understand this.

Scotland would be welcomed back with open arms. It would be England and the vassal Welsh state that would be left wondering what their future holds.

Following on from this line of though - 

I suspect England will eventually end up rather like Switzerland - surrounded by the EU but de jure not part of it but de facto will be. Sadly it will have little influence on world events. 

[Creative Midfielder 2,002]

9 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Following on from this line of though - 

I suspect England will eventually end up rather like Switzerland - surrounded by the EU but de jure not part of it but de facto will be. Sadly it will have little influence on world events. 

Think that is a very good analogy, although sadly the UK isn't going to have the very high standard of living or the very democratic governance that the Swiss enjoy.

Still if we eventually reach the stage of de facto membership of the EU that would be a huge improvement over the current sh1tshow that is UK 2021 😊

[littleyellowbirdie 2,585]

14 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Where there's a will there's a way.

Brexiteers of all people should understand this.

Scotland would be welcomed back with open arms. It would be England and the vassal Welsh state that would be left wondering what their future holds.

The EU will love it as a PR coup, but Scotland will have no leverage and no other options as an applicant after leaving the UK. The EU will take it to the cleaners on the terms of entry. 

The UK will lose about 10% of its GDP, 5 million people, some fishing waters, its submarine base, but other than that it will not be that badly affected beyond wounded pride and a border on the island of Great Britain. 

Edited December 4, 2021 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,820]

Dear oh dear. The brexiters claiming that the break up of the UK, all because they couldn't be bothered to do a modicum of research, wouldn't be a big thing. Pathetic really.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,585]

14 hours ago, Herman said:

Dear oh dear. The brexiters claiming that the break up of the UK, all because they couldn't be bothered to do a modicum of research, wouldn't be a big thing. Pathetic really.

Two things: Firstly, didn't vote to leave the EU as it was always going to be a long road and living on the continent meant it's a nuisance from a personal point of view. Secondly, Scottish withdrawal from the UK is very comparable to UK withdrawal from the EU only a thousand times more difficult. What's really laughable is anyone who thought leaving the EU was a bad idea would be so pathetic as to pretend Scottish withdrawal from the UK would be anything other than a train crash for Scotland. 

[Creative Midfielder 2,002]

17 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Two things: Firstly, didn't vote to leave the EU as it was always going to be a long road and living on the continent meant it's a nuisance from a personal point of view. Secondly, Scottish withdrawal from the UK is very comparable to UK withdrawal from the EU only a thousand times more difficult. What's really laughable is anyone who thought leaving the EU was a bad idea would be so pathetic as to pretend Scottish withdrawal from the UK would be anything other than a train crash for Scotland. 

I don't think your comparison really works for a couple of reasons:

Firstly, there seems to be a reasonable consensus amongst the pollsters, analysts etc that regaining the 'sovereignity that the UK had lost to EU' was one of the main drivers behind the Brexit vote. Of course there is no exact science behind that but it does broadly chime with what a great many Brexiteers have said, so seems a reasonable assumption. But of course that was simply one of the Brexit myths as the UK has, for hundreds of years, both inside and outside the EU always been a sovereigh nation. Whereas for the Scots, whatever you think about their aspirations for independence, there is a very real and genuine issue of sovereignity and escaping control from remote and disinterested governments in Westminister (containing almost zero Scottish representation) who are focussed entirely on English interests and voters.

The second thing is that you assume that because Brexit has been a train crash then Scottish Independence would be likewise or worse, which assumes that Sturgeon is as stupid and irresponsible as Johnson which she manifestly isnt. Of course I thought the UK leaving the EU was a bad idea but it didn't have to be as bad an idea as Johnson has turned it into - you are well aware, I'm sure, that there were many forms of Brexit that would have been less damaging to the UK than Johnson's exceptionally bad deal.

The two situations are simply not comparable - Johnson gave up the benefits of EU membership (which again you are clearly aware of) for absolutely no tangible benefit to the UK or its citizens. Scotland leaving the UK will doubtless be difficult/painful in parts but at least there would be the very tangible benefits of EU membership and regaining the sovereignity that as a country they lost 314 years ago, so there is an upside as well as downside - Brexit is all downside and then some in Johnson's version of it.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,585]

1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I don't think your comparison really works for a couple of reasons:

Firstly, there seems to be a reasonable consensus amongst the pollsters, analysts etc that regaining the 'sovereignity that the UK had lost to EU' was one of the main drivers behind the Brexit vote. Of course there is no exact science behind that but it does broadly chime with what a great many Brexiteers have said, so seems a reasonable assumption. But of course that was simply one of the Brexit myths as the UK has, for hundreds of years, both inside and outside the EU always been a sovereigh nation. Whereas for the Scots, whatever you think about their aspirations for independence, there is a very real and genuine issue of sovereignity and escaping control from remote and disinterested governments in Westminister (containing almost zero Scottish representation) who are focussed entirely on English interests and voters.

The second thing is that you assume that because Brexit has been a train crash then Scottish Independence would be likewise or worse, which assumes that Sturgeon is as stupid and irresponsible as Johnson which she manifestly isnt. Of course I thought the UK leaving the EU was a bad idea but it didn't have to be as bad an idea as Johnson has turned it into - you are well aware, I'm sure, that there were many forms of Brexit that would have been less damaging to the UK than Johnson's exceptionally bad deal.

The two situations are simply not comparable - Johnson gave up the benefits of EU membership (which again you are clearly aware of) for absolutely no tangible benefit to the UK or its citizens. Scotland leaving the UK will doubtless be difficult/painful in parts but at least there would be the very tangible benefits of EU membership and regaining the sovereignity that as a country they lost 314 years ago, so there is an upside as well as downside - Brexit is all downside and then some in Johnson's version of it.

This post has all the hallmarks of an SNP 'true believer' exceptionalism and all. It's the only possible explanation for being so blind to the similarities. 

Edited December 6, 2021 by littleyellowbirdie

[Creative Midfielder 2,002]

22 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

This post has all the hallmarks of an SNP 'true believer' exceptionalism and all. It's the only possible explanation for being so blind to the similarities. 

Afraid you are wrong again as I'm English, living in England and actually haven't actually been advocating Scottish Independence per se, it seems to me that it is Johnson who is the most effective campaigner for the SNP and it is primarily him that will be responsible (eventually) for both Scotland and NI leaving the union. What I (and I presume you) think is pretty irrelevant given I don't have a vote.

But for the record if I was Scottish and had a vote then I would be voting Green/SNP but not primarily because of independence rather that they are the only parties in Scotland have politicians and policies that I would have any confidence in - independence is one of those but not actually the most important.

Finally I'm not blind to the similarities but I am also very aware of the differences, which is what my post was about, and which you seem unwilling to even acknowledge.

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

Scotland will never vote for independence. Firstly, there is no majority for independence. Secondly, Scotland gains so much under current arrangements they will never give up the cash cow that is England. Ah but, I hear you say, Scotland wants independence because they keep voting for the Scottish National Socialist Party. Nope, they vote for the National Socialists to keep the current status in play. All the power, none of the responsibility - what's not to like.

[Creative Midfielder 2,002]

1 minute ago, Rock The Boat said:

Scotland will never vote for independence. Firstly, there is no majority for independence. Secondly, Scotland gains so much under current arrangements they will never give up the cash cow that is England. Ah but, I hear you say, Scotland wants independence because they keep voting for the Scottish National Socialist Party. Nope, they vote for the National Socialists to keep the current status in play. All the power, none of the responsibility - what's not to like.

😂😂 I see you share Johnson's contempt for the Scotch (amongst other similar views), you make a fine pair of English........

[littleyellowbirdie 2,585]

3 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Afraid you are wrong again as I'm English, living in England and actually haven't actually been advocating Scottish Independence per se, it seems to me that it is Johnson who is the most effective campaigner for the SNP and it is primarily him that will be responsible (eventually) for both Scotland and NI leaving the union. What I (and I presume you) think is pretty irrelevant given I don't have a vote.

But for the record if I was Scottish and had a vote then I would be voting Green/SNP but not primarily because of independence rather that they are the only parties in Scotland have politicians and policies that I would have any confidence in - independence is one of those but not actually the most important.

Finally I'm not blind to the similarities but I am also very aware of the differences, which is what my post was about, and which you seem unwilling to even acknowledge.

I acknowledge the differences completely. What I can't fathom is how you can seriously believe that Scottish withdrawal from the UK could possibly be anything less than a catastrophe for Scotland that would make Brexit look trivial. 

Population 5 million, tenth of the GDP of the UK, no diplomatic network, no military, no trade agreements, joined to an angry neighbour to the south while desperately begging the EU to let it in on whatever terms the EU nations want, which there will be plenty of with 27 nations, complete with Spain and its Catalonia issues, having to all agree admission unanimously. 

Complete utter joke. 

Edited December 6, 2021 by littleyellowbirdie

[TheGunnShow 5,987]

Population of 5 million is hardly an issue (similar to Finland, Norway and Denmark) and what would stop the Scots from getting plenty of that North Sea oil considering the location of the platforms?

[littleyellowbirdie 2,585]

13 minutes ago, TheGunnShow said:

Population of 5 million is hardly an issue (similar to Finland, Norway and Denmark) and what would stop the Scots from getting plenty of that North Sea oil considering the location of the platforms?

Ah oil. Yup, that's a great commodity to plan your future on in this day and age...

[TheGunnShow 5,987]

Would certainly do for starters. After all, oil and natural gas form a considerable proportion of Norway's economy.

Norway's oil and gas sector will not be dismantled, new government says - BBC News

[SwindonCanary 455]

Can't see Scotland joining as the border is too open and their economy is not good.  The rest of Britain will never join. 

[Indy 3,314]

The funny thing is, if Scotland get their independence and then joins the EU, the fishing grounds around Scotland would then be open to EU, open travel into Scotland and a hard border along the north of England. We’d no longer be an island nation with the English Channel between us & the EU…..that would be hard to police.

But I love the Brexiteers, they give the same reasons to why Scotland won’t leave, can’t afford it, don’t have enough voters etc. That they said about Brexit, add to that most Scots really don’t like being policed by English Parliament (sounding the same as some others over Brexit?) that if they get a second referendum they will be leaving from those I know who live in Aberdeen and Edinburgh!

Edited December 7, 2021 by Indy

[littleyellowbirdie 2,585]

13 hours ago, TheGunnShow said:

Would certainly do for starters. After all, oil and natural gas form a considerable proportion of Norway's economy.

Norway's oil and gas sector will not be dismantled, new government says - BBC News

Herbert Smith Mills analysis of implications of Scottish withdrawal on oil and gas sector.

Friday 3rd December, 2021: Shell U-turn on Cambo could mean end for big North Sea oil projects

 

 

 

Edited December 7, 2021 by littleyellowbirdie

[littleyellowbirdie 2,585]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

The funny thing is, if Scotland get their independence and then joins the EU, the fishing grounds around Scotland would then be open to EU, open travel into Scotland and a hard border along the north of England. We’d no longer be an island nation with the English Channel between us & the EU…..that would be hard to police.

But I love the Brexiteers, they give the same reasons to why Scotland won’t leave, can’t afford it, don’t have enough voters etc. That they said about Brexit, add to that most Scots really don’t like being policed by English Parliament (sounding the same as some others over Brexit?) that if they get a second referendum they will be leaving from those I know who live in Aberdeen and Edinburgh!

Who says it's just Brexiteers making the argument? Keir Starmer, David Cameron, Tony Blair, and Gordon Brown are three high profile names I can think of that advocated remaining in the EU and keeping the UK together; The same arguments around Scottish independence were made way before EU membership became a mainstream question. But you're absolutely right that the emotional arguments for both are very much in line with each other. 

As an aside, while a minority of Scots voted leave, the party with the highest proporition of leave voters was the SNP. 
 

[Yellow Fever 3,818]

12 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Who says it's just Brexiteers making the argument? Keir Starmer, David Cameron, Tony Blair, and Gordon Brown are three high profile names I can think of that advocated remaining in the EU and keeping the UK together; The same arguments around Scottish independence were made way before EU membership became a mainstream question. But you're absolutely right that the emotional arguments for both are very much in line with each other. 

As an aside, while a minority of Scots voted leave, the party with the highest proporition of leave voters was the SNP. 
 

Oddly  - When Johnson refuses 'sovereign' Scotland a new referendum it will be game over for the UK. Such a refusal would make it plain to all Scots of all persuasions that they have no sovereignty and should simply do as they are told by the Sassenachs.

I can't think of stronger rallying call for swift independence with whatever consequences than that.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,585]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Oddly  - When Johnson refuses 'sovereign' Scotland a new referendum it will be game over for the UK. Such a refusal would make it plain to all Scots of all persuasions that they have no sovereignty and should simply do as they are told by the Sassenachs.

I can't think of stronger rallying call for swift independence with whatever consequences than that.

If it came to the crunch, I don't think he'd refuse, but I don't think the SNP is ready to ask yet anyway: currency was the killer at the last referendum and it'll be the killer this time unless they can put together a really amazing plan for it that doesn't involve just de facto using sterling with no lender of last resort. For its part, the SNP is now backing forming its own treasury and floating its own currency. 

In many respects, the known claimed and completely unambiguous, intention to rejoin the EU puts an additional spanner in the works on that score, because who's going to want to invest in a currency that is known is only going to be a stopgap prior to joining the Euro? 

The conundrums of Scottish withdrawal make those of Brexit pale in comparison. Then let's not forget the  deluge of English and Welsh erstwhile remainers suddenly flooding up into Scotland to live to get an EU passport before the formal division... should be pretty cosy up there I'd imagine. 

https://www.thenational.scot/politics/19762925.sterlingisation-will-never-answer-independent-scotland/

https://www.snp.org/policies/pb-what-is-the-snp-s-position-on-rejoining-the-eu/

Edited December 7, 2021 by littleyellowbirdie

[Creative Midfielder 2,002]

18 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

I acknowledge the differences completely. What I can't fathom is how you can seriously believe that Scottish withdrawal from the UK could possibly be anything less than a catastrophe for Scotland that would make Brexit look trivial. 

Population 5 million, tenth of the GDP of the UK, no diplomatic network, no military, no trade agreements, joined to an angry neighbour to the south while desperately begging the EU to let it in on whatever terms the EU nations want, which there will be plenty of with 27 nations, complete with Spain and its Catalonia issues, having to all agree admission unanimously. 

 

Pretty easy actually, there are 8 of the 27 EU countries with populations under 5m and they seem to be doing generally OK and Ireland with an almost identical population to Scotland has done fantastically well within the EU.

There are also 3 more at under 6m including Denmark and Finland also doing extremely well and as fellow Northern European countries I suspect they are the countries which Scotland will be hoping to emulate. So this would seem to be a case where size isn't especially important.

As for the lack of trade agreements, they would be joining the Single Market and all the EU trade agreements which puts them miles  ahead of what the UK has to offer!! Diplomatic service likewise. Military - who knows how that would be unpicked - they do after all make up a good chunk of the UK military and they have our submarine and other naval bases but I'd guess that a military capability would be the least of their concerns.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,585]

46 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Pretty easy actually, there are 8 of the 27 EU countries with populations under 5m and they seem to be doing generally OK and Ireland with an almost identical population to Scotland has done fantastically well within the EU.

There are also 3 more at under 6m including Denmark and Finland also doing extremely well and as fellow Northern European countries I suspect they are the countries which Scotland will be hoping to emulate. So this would seem to be a case where size isn't especially important.

As for the lack of trade agreements, they would be joining the Single Market and all the EU trade agreements which puts them miles  ahead of what the UK has to offer!! Diplomatic service likewise. Military - who knows how that would be unpicked - they do after all make up a good chunk of the UK military and they have our submarine and other naval bases but I'd guess that a military capability would be the least of their concerns.

Yeah, subject to concessions yet to be established to reach unanimity among the 27 member nations, including Spain and its little problem with Catalonia.

How it'd be unpicked is an interesting question, but it's worth remembering that it would be the UK essentially sanctioning the creation of another sovereign body, so ultimately all of the terms will be according to what the UK minus Scotland wills, because all of it is the UK. 

I must admit, if Scotland did vote to withdraw, curiosity would probably exceed my disappointment much as it has with Brexit. 

[Herman 9,820]

I think we can all agree that if the Scots do vote to leave they will do it with their eyes wide open. There has been none of the very false optimism and downright lies like in the brexit referendum. They will know the pitfalls as well as the positives.

Maybe not 'birdie.😀

Edited December 8, 2021 by Herman