New Tory Leader

[Herman 9,777]

43 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

STAND UP AND FIGHT! 

She's apparently quite good at carrying a sword as well! 

Thatcher without the IQ

 

I'm not sure why but the character of Nurse Ratched popped into my head. Maybe it's not a good idea for the tories. 😉

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

3 hours ago, BroadstairsR said:

There is clearly a problem with both parties such as has never been seen before. So many potential voters claim that they are unable to side with either the Conservatives or Labour

Is there any evidence that voters claim they are unable to side with Labour or the Conservatives. I ask merely because I haven't seen any evidence at all. 

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

1 minute ago, Herman said:

I'm not sure why but the character of Nurse Ratched popped into my head. Maybe it's not a good idea for the tories. 😉

I'm never going to be able to get that out of my head now! 

Medication time..... 

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

I'm having to rely on the Daily Mail because the proper Tory newspapers are behind a paywall. 

Are they really that bothered about transgender issues? I canvassed for Labour 10 months ago at a local election. I visited 500 houses and asked about local and national issues. No one mentioned it and I believe that a huge proportion of people couldn't care less about it 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13203093/Plot-crown-Penny-Mordaunt-PM-Tory-MPs-Right-held-secret-talks-moderates-replacing-Rishi-Sunak-Leader-House.html

[Fen Canary 828]

33 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I'm having to rely on the Daily Mail because the proper Tory newspapers are behind a paywall. 

Are they really that bothered about transgender issues? I canvassed for Labour 10 months ago at a local election. I visited 500 houses and asked about local and national issues. No one mentioned it and I believe that a huge proportion of people couldn't care less about it 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13203093/Plot-crown-Penny-Mordaunt-PM-Tory-MPs-Right-held-secret-talks-moderates-replacing-Rishi-Sunak-Leader-House.html

Just because other issues take priority currently, especially as people are financially struggling, that doesn’t mean a majority is in favour of policies such as self ID and biological men in women’s single sex spaces and sports. Don’t conflate it not being a current priority for most with meaning that a majority are in favour of the policies put forward by groups such as Stonewall 

[Yellow Fever 3,792]

56 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Is there any evidence that voters claim they are unable to side with Labour or the Conservatives. I ask merely because I haven't seen any evidence at all. 

I'd agree. The polls don't show that either. 

The 'both as bad as each other' is just a sly Tory attack to undermine Labour i.e to imply you might as well vote for us as they are no better. It clearly has some traction with some. The riposte is anybody but the (current) Tories!

As far as I can see 'Reform' are around 10% splitting off a little of the rump extreme Tory vote. The days of UKIP as a single issue party are past. Equally the Greens and other more left parties split off a little of the Labour vote - not that either Reform or Greens are exclusively left/right. Not much has really changed with the 'protest' parties as in FPTP nor will it. Both will do well to get more then 1 MP if even that.  

 

[BroadstairsR 2,173]

2 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Is there any evidence that voters claim they are unable to side with Labour or the Conservatives. I ask merely because I haven't seen any evidence at all. 

True. It's probably only think speak gleaned from discussion and possibly television street interviews. There were record low turnouts even for bye-elections in the recent counts though.

The phrase "lesser of two evils" seems to be being bandied around a lot as well.

You cannot go by polls, I agree, as they hold a multitude of untruths.

I was once 'accosted' by a pollster whilst sitting outside a local pub. I wouldn't say the questions or the manner of the questioning involved were either loaded or biased, but as I sat there watching her, it was clear that the lady involved was quite selective in her choice of 'clients.'

This was some time ago now, so perhaps such polling is more sophisticated these days.

I wouldn't know the amount of "don't knows" in recent polls. I should think it's more widespread than usual. 

None of the three main parties convinces me. I might just vote for a well-meaning independent who promotes some worthwhile local cause that needs airing for once. For me, voting for any of the others would be akin to voting for the Monster Raving Looney candidate as things stand at the moment.

Edited March 16 by BroadstairsR

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,188]

10 minutes ago, BroadstairsR said:

 

I was once 'accosted' by a pollster whilst sitting outside a local pub. I wouldn't say the questions or the manner of the questioning involved were either loaded or biased, but as I sat there watching her, it was clear that the lady involved was quite selective in her choice of 'clients.'

This was some time ago now, so perhaps such polling is more sophisticated these days.

 

I´m sure its been posted before, but another airing won´t hurt

For and Against National Service | Yes, Prime Minister | Comedy Greats (youtube.com)

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

1 hour ago, BroadstairsR said:

True. It's probably only think speak gleaned from discussion and possibly television street interviews. There were record low turnouts even for bye-elections in the recent counts though.

The phrase "lesser of two evils" seems to be being bandied around a lot as well.

You cannot go by polls, I agree, as they hold a multitude of untruths.

I was once 'accosted' by a pollster whilst sitting outside a local pub. I wouldn't say the questions or the manner of the questioning involved were either loaded or biased, but as I sat there watching her, it was clear that the lady involved was quite selective in her choice of 'clients.'

This was some time ago now, so perhaps such polling is more sophisticated these days.

I wouldn't know the amount of "don't knows" in recent polls. I should think it's more widespread than usual. 

None of the three main parties convinces me. I might just vote for a well-meaning independent who promotes some worthwhile local cause that needs airing for once. For me, voting for any of the others would be akin to voting for the Monster Raving Looney candidate as things stand at the moment.

It's a very simple question. Do you support the most corrupt, incompetent and stupid Government in UK history? 

[Well b back 3,208]

8 hours ago, BroadstairsR said:

There is clearly a problem with both parties such as has never been seen before. So many potential voters claim that they are unable to side with either the Conservatives or Labour, whilst the Lib-Dems seem virtually non-existent since losing their third party status in Parliament to the Scottish Nationalists. I suppose their "Starp Brexit" stance might still appeal to some over and above their traditional fringe areas of support.

Red wall, blue wall, Waitrose woman or M & S movers or whatever car driven, there seems to be confusion all-round. Long covid rules, but mental rather than medical. Many will inevitably turn to blunt speaking populist orators like both Farage and Galloway. They seem to have a knack of saying the right thing at the right time. Galloway especially who makes 'Orator' Hunt seem like Mr. Bean, and I'm not referring to Taxer' Jeremy here. Whilst Farage 'aint so bad in that respect, a modern day Svengali who could readily persuade even the most reluctant Ebenezer to buy a round.

Perhaps the Tories should resort to Mourdaunt, a safe pair of hands best known for strong arms though who I would class as 'unity' rather than anything other than moderately right wing, even though she might be overrun by Badenoch's communication skills. It might deflect from a Labour landslide which would be disastrous and could lead to a resurrection of the influence of either the barmy left and the Islington luvvies or the god-awful Angela Raynor being Chancellor of the Exchequer and throwing bundles of fifty pound notes from the back of a van in deprived areas. These never go away, and always linger Abbot, where are you?

Weaker than water Sunak, with all the backbone and side winding of a rattlesnake, is more out of touch with the needs of the populace than even Johnson, imo, that latter having some form of common touch however unsuited he was to the role in so many ways. 

Sir Keir Rodney Starmer, KCB, KC who knows? He seems to sway with every breeze, which is ominous. I still maintain that the Labour Party missed a trick by not going for Lisa Nandy, the brightest of buttons with that common touch who would have instantly appealed to the Northern voter. Hard-working and committed and surely no less experienced in the art of politics than Starmer himself and certainly more sincere.

The next election, whenever it is to happen, will be the most fascinating and unpredictable than ever before and extremists like Galloway and whatever name he has given to his party and Farage and Reform could surprise whilst the country longs for the middle ground for every issue ranging from taxation to immigration.

Nah, made up by the party I have always voted for, the lying **** that are the Tories and the far left that hate SKS for defeating Corbyn. Of course some people believe that, as it seems do you, but look at the polls, look at recent by elections, talk to your friends ( people like me my family and friends ) who have voted Tory all their lives, we will simply be voting to get the Tories out. Of course there will still be some people that just cannot vote Labour, simply because they have always voted Tory, but even those like that who do not vote at all will be voting for SKS.
Big business trusts SKS, the financial markets trust SKS, you are getting sold a kipper. I don’t know how you expect somebody to say we will do x, y and z when the party in power deliberately take away funding to make the sums not add up anymore.

In fact they are so desperate, they now want Sunak out, replaced by a puppet leader, so that they can launch more attacks on opposition parties and leaders.

The only unfortunate thing is that in some areas you will of course get lunatics and the far right taking some seats, but then I guess as seen on another thread, people really support people who think rape is not a crime.

Do you really know any Labour supporters who will not be voting Labour this time round, and if you do are they purely Corbyn supporters, somebody I would never vote for and would be more at home with Galloway.

QT is still on Iplayer, have a look at that and you will see your opinion go up in flames, I have never seen a QT like it.

[Well b back 3,208]

On 15/03/2024 at 08:28, Fen Canary said:

Just general incompetence then. In itself I think the levelling up was a good policy, it just needed people who knew what they were doing to actually put it into practice

If you lived in Birmingham, you would say something needs levying up, the roads. Pot holes every few yards, some so deep you can’t define them.

[Barbe bleu 827]

4 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Is there any evidence that voters claim they are unable to side with Labour or the Conservatives. I ask merely because I haven't seen any evidence at all. 

According to the polls support for either two main parties is down 9% from 2019 (2019 poll average top chart).Doesn't sound huge but that's quite a jump in our system.

There is also a question about how firm these opinions are.   If support were thin you'd expect to see lowere approval ratings for leaders than in, for instance, 2019 and more variation between polls

 

Edited March 16 by Barbe bleu

[BroadstairsR 2,173]

8 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Nah, made up by the party I have always voted for, the lying **** that are the Tories and the far left that hate SKS for defeating Corbyn. Of course some people believe that, as it seems do you, but look at the polls, look at recent by elections, talk to your friends ( people like me my family and friends ) who have voted Tory all their lives, we will simply be voting to get the Tories out. Of course there will still be some people that just cannot vote Labour, simply because they have always voted Tory, but even those like that who do not vote at all will be voting for SKS.
Big business trusts SKS, the financial markets trust SKS, you are getting sold a kipper. I don’t know how you expect somebody to say we will do x, y and z when the party in power deliberately take away funding to make the sums not add up anymore.

In fact they are so desperate, they now want Sunak out, replaced by a puppet leader, so that they can launch more attacks on opposition parties and leaders.

The only unfortunate thing is that in some areas you will of course get lunatics and the far right taking some seats, but then I guess as seen on another thread, people really support people who think rape is not a crime.

Do you really know any Labour supporters who will not be voting Labour this time round, and if you do are they purely Corbyn supporters, somebody I would never vote for and would be more at home with Galloway.

QT is still on Iplayer, have a look at that and you will see your opinion go up in flames, I have never seen a QT like it.

Thank you for your misplaced advice, which is not well heeded. I might not be totally informed, like most, but at least my thinking is not clouded by conspiracy theories and generalisations as yours seems to be.

To use a Question Time audience as a barometer of voting intentions has never been a particularly sensible thing to do.

 

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

3 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

According to the polls support for either two main parties is down 9%. Doesn't sound huge but that's quite a jump in our system.

There is also a question about how firm these opinions are.   If support were thin you'd expect to see lowere approval ratings for leaders than in, for instance, 2019 and more variation between polls

 

I'm struggling to find anything anywhere that says Labour has dropped 9%😂

[Well b back 3,208]

Just now, BroadstairsR said:

Thank you for your misplaced advice, which is not well heeded. I might not be totally informed, like most, but at least my thinking is not clouded by conspiracy theories and generalisations as yours seems to be.

To use a Question Time audience as a barometer of voting intentions has never been a particularly sensible thing to do.

 

lol the only conspiracy theories I have ever done was listening to my MP and voting for Brexit.

[Well b back 3,208]

2 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I'm struggling to find anything anywhere that says Labour has dropped 9%😂

Even that poll is getting outdated since the £15m midweek debacle

[BroadstairsR 2,173]

8 minutes ago, Well b back said:

lol the only conspiracy theories I have ever done was listening to my MP and voting for Brexit.

"In fact they are so desperate, they now want Sunak out, replaced by a puppet leader, so that they can launch more attacks on opposition parties and leaders."

"Do you really know any Labour supporters who will not be voting Labour this time round, and if you do are they purely Corbyn supporters .......... "

Edited March 16 by BroadstairsR

[Barbe bleu 827]

10 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I'm struggling to find anything anywhere that says Labour has dropped 9%😂

It might come as a huge shock to some but corbyn was electoral poison. He managed to put a toxic gloss onto what were probably quite popular policies.

To go back to your question support for the smaller parties has grown since 2019, meaning that less people overall like either of the two big ones. To a degree this represents  return to the 21st century mean but there is an implied question about whether people really want to vote for either. That's why you need to look beyond the standard poll.  If Labour is getting  44% in the polls but starmer has a low popularity rating then its the Torys and the system pushing people to Labour despite labour's lack of appeal. I've not looked at the approval rating but I'm sure you can tell me

 

 

 

Edited March 16 by Barbe bleu

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

It might come as a huge shock to some but corbyn was electoral poison. He managed to put a toxic gloss onto what were probably quite popular policies.

To go back to your question support for the smaller parties has grown since 2019, meaning that less people overall like either of them. To a degree this represents  return to the 21st century mean but there is an implied question about whether people really want to vote for either. That's why you need to look beyond the standard poll.  If Labour is getting  44% in the polls but statmer has a low popularity rating then its the Tory and the system.pushing people to Labour despite labour's lack of appeal. I've not looked at the approval rating but I'm sure you can tell me

 

 

 

So Labour hasn't dropped 9%!

I've read some nonsense on this site but that has to be the winner 

Edited March 16 by dylanisabaddog

[Barbe bleu 827]

9 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Even that poll is getting outdated since the £15m midweek debacle

I don't t think the hester thing will change much  but if it does then I would expect the 9% to grow not diminish 

[Barbe bleu 827]

3 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

So Labour hasn't dropped 9%!

I've read some nonsense on this site but that has to be the winner 

Take another look at your question and my answer and then come back with a response

 

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

39 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Take another look at your question and my answer and then come back with a response

 

You have said that support for both main parties is down 9%. That's absolute nonsense. 

[Fen Canary 828]

4 hours ago, Well b back said:

If you lived in Birmingham, you would say something needs levying up, the roads. Pot holes every few yards, some so deep you can’t define them.

Come out into the fens my man, it appears they just gave up on them a decade ago round here. If Clarkson hadn’t got a bit punchy I’d have expected to see Top Gear doing one of their off road specials here soon 

[A Load of Squit 5,170]

4 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Take another look at your question and my answer and then come back with a response

 

You can clearly see the 9% out on the streets of Ashfield.

Edited March 16 by A Load of Squit

[Barbe bleu 827]

9 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

You have said that support for both main parties is down 9%. That's absolute nonsense. 

I said that the total level of support across the two parties had fallen by 9% from 76% in 2019 polls to 67%  now. That much should have been obvious from the charts I posted and the context of the question.

If you want it in a manner able to pass through your filter: the Tories are losing a lot of support, but Labour is not picking up a lot of the freed up votes, which are instead going to smaller parties.  It is also not clear how loyal labour's new support is and whether it will dissipate before the election. Labour cannot yet take this for granted

 

 

Edited March 16 by Barbe bleu

[BroadstairsR 2,173]

15 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

You have said that support for both main parties is down 9%. That's absolute nonsense. 

May be, but in the Rochdale bye-election the two main parties, Cons and Lab. managed to poll less than 20% of the vote between them.

I realise it was a bye-election and that the outcome was skilfully manoeuvred by Galloway and I realise that I am not fully aware of the exact demography of the constituency as it stands today or of local issues, except that it was likely a Muslim vote (postal or otherwise) but it must mean something about the area and other similar constituencies which could well be reflected in the forthcoming general election. It was a thumping win after all.

That so-called red-wall is clearly crumbling at a rate, whether it be entirely in favour of the Labour Party surely seems cast in to doubt by this result, especially as Gorgeous George threatens to stand more candidates in such constituencies when that day arrives.

My reading is that it is the collapse of the Scot. Nat. vote north of the border that will favour Starmer most of all, along with some traditional Northern support. A lot of the rest might favour a Lab/Lib-Dem split or the smaller parties, except for in the vast staunch Tory strongholds.

Reform polling anything between 10-20% could well throw everything up in the air, in both the North and the South, as well as Galloway's lot as mentioned above.

One thing seems fairly certain, and that it is likely to be a dirty campaign, with results difficult to predict except in localised areas.

 

Edited March 17 by BroadstairsR

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

7 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I said that the total level of support across the two parties had fallen by 9% from 76% in 2019 polls to 67%  now. That much should have been obvious from the charts I posted and the context of the question.

If you want it in a manner able to pass through your filter: the Tories are losing a lot of support, but Labour is not picking up a lot of the freed up votes, which are instead going to smaller parties.  It is also not clear how loyal labour's new support is and whether it will dissipate before the election. Labour cannot yet take this for granted

 

 

I really struggle to see anything can be learned from adding together the Labour and Conservative vote!

It's very simple. The Conservatives have dropped 22%. Those voters have switched allegiance to Labour or Reform and to a small extent the Green Party. 

Actually, it's a little bit more complicated than that because there are some unusual people out there who have switched from Labour to Reform. 

The Lib Dems have dropped 2% but are forecast to get more seats. That can only mean that people have decided to vote tactically to get rid of the Tories. 

Edited March 17 by dylanisabaddog

[Barbe bleu 827]

5 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I really struggle to see anything can be learned from adding together the Labour and Conservative vote!

Why did you ask the question then!?

Personally I think  you are wrong to dismiss it. Increasing support for smaller parties tells the 2 big parties that there is untapped potential that they are not attracting, so it can inform policy creation and marketing.   It also tells us more about how our system is failing  to reflect modern political thought.

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Why did you ask the question then!?

Personally I think  you are wrong to dismiss it. Increasing support for smaller parties tells the 2 big parties that there is untapped potential that they are not attracting, so it can inform policy creation and marketing.   It also tells us more about how our system is failing  to reflect modern political thought.

Your original post on the subject was slightly misleading as it suggested that Labour had lost support. 

I think you're reading too much in to the move to smaller parties. In the case of Reform it's because around 1 in 10 people have been convinced that immigration is our major problem.

The Green vote will continue to nudge up every year. Old people die and young people become of voting age on a daily basis. Old people don't believe or don't care about global warming. 

[Aggy 755]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Why did you ask the question then!?

Personally I think  you are wrong to dismiss it. Increasing support for smaller parties tells the 2 big parties that there is untapped potential that they are not attracting, so it can inform policy creation and marketing.   It also tells us more about how our system is failing  to reflect modern political thought.

In fairness, Dylan was querying the truth of an earlier claim that people feel they can vote for neither Labour or the Conservatives because they are both as bad as each other. 

Your post saying there is a 9 percent drop in support for those two parties combined does then look a little “Tory Spin-ish” in response to that, when in reality the stats you posted show that support for Labour has increased. 

The stats you posted show SNP, Greens and Lib Dem continue to have 19 percent between them. Others still have 1 or 2 between them.

So the real movers are the Tories going down 22 percentage points. Labour have gone up 11 and Reform have gone up 11.

While of course there will be cases that are more nuanced, the simplest answer seems quite obviously that almost exactly half of those who have withdrawn their support for the Tories will vote Reform and half will vote Labour. Which makes sense. Those who perhaps aren’t wedded to either party and tend to be fairly centralist are likely to vote Labour. Those more on the right will go Reform. Nothing much there suggesting people are losing support for Labour as well.

Edited March 17 by Aggy