New Tory Leader

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

We're going to stop the boats and halve inflation 

Don't forget save money for companies and in fact the Government by making people strike.

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

15 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Astonishing, hard to work out who is the more stupid - the journalists who produce such utter claptrap or the readers who are so gullible that they think they are reading news.

It put the "in" in "cretin".

[Barbe bleu 827]

.

Edited July 20, 2023 by Barbe bleu

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

A mixed set of results but perhaps the most interesting was in Somerset. The Labour vote dropped from 8,000 to 1,000. Half of that drop was due to a very low turnout, the other half as a result of Labour voters lending their votes to the Lib Dems. 

The Tory in Ruislip accepted he had only won because of ULEZ which in my mind makes the result unreliable.  The majority was 500 but 3,000 votes were cast for candidates who got less than 1,000 votes. God knows why, what on earth goes through people's minds?

The result in Selby will be the one that frightens Sunak. An enormous swing to Labour and the Lib Dem vote fell from 4,800 to 1,000. As with Somerset, half of that drop is turnout but the other half is vote lending. 

 

[Herman 9,779]

I think we should all find the stinkiest, most polluting car/truck/wagon that we can and hold a rally around Uxbridge in celebration.😉

Well done to the voters of Frome and Selby.👏

[Yellowfuture 71]

Not the expected results and surprised that the Tories were not swept away in all three. People vote with their pockets, Uxbridge shows that yet again, if I were SKS I would be pushing a positive Labour agenda and not continuing to rely on an anti Tory vote, the Tories are more than capable of creating a short term economic boost prior to the election.

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

48 minutes ago, Herman said:

I think we should all find the stinkiest, most polluting car/truck/wagon that we can and hold a rally around Uxbridge in celebration.😉

Well done to the voters of Frome and Selby.👏

I'm afraid the population of Uxbridge is killing itself. People living in urban polluted areas around the world are 30% more likely to die prematurely from a heart attack or stroke.

It's easy to moan about Mayor Khan but what on earth is he supposed to do? Just kill people? 

They also seem to forget that Johnson actively supported anti pollution measures. I'm afraid the British population can only be trusted to vote with their wallets. 

[Herman 9,779]

10 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I'm afraid the population of Uxbridge is killing itself. People living in urban polluted areas around the world are 30% more likely to die prematurely from a heart attack or stroke.

It's easy to moan about Mayor Khan but what on earth is he supposed to do? Just kill people? 

They also seem to forget that Johnson actively supported anti pollution measures. I'm afraid the British population can only be trusted to vote with their wallets. 

Ironically the Green vote could have pushed Labour to a win.

[Herman 9,779]

Interesting comment from Curtice;

"And he said Uxbridge result, which showed voters punishing Labour because of Ulez, would probably boost those in the party urging Keir Starmer to adopt a so-called “Ming vase” strategy (an ultra cautious, no risk approach). Curtice said the result showed the risk of “bold and perhaps desirable” policies that upset the electorate. It is called the “Ming vase” approach because Roy Jenkins once described Tony Blair, ahead of the 1997 election, as being like someone being very cautious because they were carrying a Ming vase across a shiny floor and were worried about dropping it. Some in Labour, notably Alastair Campbell in his The Rest is Politics podcast, argue that Ming vaseism isn’t enough, and that Labour needs to make a bold offer to voters too."

[ricardo 7,395]

Quite surprised it wasn't 3 nil.

Still a long way to go before GE. "Events dear boy, events."

Anything from hung parliament to modest Labour  majority looks most likely.  

Much depends on how Labour fare v SNP.

 

 

[ricardo 7,395]

34 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I'm afraid the population of Uxbridge is killing itself. People living in urban polluted areas around the world are 30% more likely to die prematurely from a heart attack or stroke.

 

Build some more houses and they can all move to Mulbarton😀

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

The next election is a minimum of 14 months away, probably 17 October 2024. Why on earth would KS reveal his strategy now, especially when the Conservatives are shooting themselves in the foot on a weekly basis? 

I suspect there will be a huge ramp up of policy announcements starting around May next year. 

[Yellowfuture 71]

15 minutes ago, Herman said:

Interesting comment from Curtice;

"And he said Uxbridge result, which showed voters punishing Labour because of Ulez, would probably boost those in the party urging Keir Starmer to adopt a so-called “Ming vase” strategy (an ultra cautious, no risk approach). Curtice said the result showed the risk of “bold and perhaps desirable” policies that upset the electorate. It is called the “Ming vase” approach because Roy Jenkins once described Tony Blair, ahead of the 1997 election, as being like someone being very cautious because they were carrying a Ming vase across a shiny floor and were worried about dropping it. Some in Labour, notably Alastair Campbell in his The Rest is Politics podcast, argue that Ming vaseism isn’t enough, and that Labour needs to make a bold offer to voters too."

It’s a political dilemma I suppose, hopefully for Labour they will chose the right path. Personally I would rather see a party elected with strong and clear policies and following through on them, surely that’s the whole point. Naive I know 😁

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Build some more houses and they can all move to Mulbarton😀

Already happened. Mostly Labour voters 😊

[Yellowfuture 71]

1 minute ago, dylanisabaddog said:

The next election is a minimum of 14 months away, probably 17 October 2024. Why on earth would KS reveal his strategy now, especially when the Conservatives are shooting themselves in the foot on a weekly basis? 

I suspect there will be a huge ramp up of policy announcements starting around May next year. 

If SKS has a strategy then he needs to be selling it and gaining support for it. Why delay if they are good policies?

[Herman 9,779]

 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

38 minutes ago, Herman said:

Interesting comment from Curtice;

"And he said Uxbridge result, which showed voters punishing Labour because of Ulez, would probably boost those in the party urging Keir Starmer to adopt a so-called “Ming vase” strategy (an ultra cautious, no risk approach). Curtice said the result showed the risk of “bold and perhaps desirable” policies that upset the electorate. It is called the “Ming vase” approach because Roy Jenkins once described Tony Blair, ahead of the 1997 election, as being like someone being very cautious because they were carrying a Ming vase across a shiny floor and were worried about dropping it. Some in Labour, notably Alastair Campbell in his The Rest is Politics podcast, argue that Ming vaseism isn’t enough, and that Labour needs to make a bold offer to voters too."

Yes.

I think Uxbridge is the exception to the rule that basically the polls are correct and Labour is 20+ points ahead.

That said - Uxbridge also reinforces SKS view of no policies that are 'hostages to fortune'. Labour needs a big swing and he doesn't need the Tories peeling away any large number of voters.

I know Uxbridge quite well - got married there - and I can fully understand the (temporary) local issue of the ULEZ. Khan is being over-prescriptive and needs to take people with him. Uxbridge isn't central London even if it is on the underground and just inside the M25. Others in similar non-metropolitan cities should take note. The electorate can punish idealists.

Edited July 21, 2023 by Yellow Fever

[KiwiScot 1,450]

Please god not a hung parliment.

Ok these by-elections are Tory Seats who are governing. Purely Subjective but across the three the Tory vote basially stayed away and I would not be surprised to see them take back the three 2024. Labour/Lid Dem made small gains with tatical voting(or voting as I call it). Also hints of protest votes against Labour. Chances Lid Dem vote didn't turn up(other than somerset)

Somerset - Lid Dems only gained around 4,000 votes, Labour collapse of vote. Tatical, but Tory vote stayed away

Selby - Labour only gained 3,000 votes. Lots of cancidates getting over 4,000 votes. Tory vote stayed away a little bit

Uxbridge - Labour got 5,000 Less votes. Labour vote didn't turn up. Lid Dems lose votes, tatical voting less likely, but 2,400 votes for many other candiates. SKS or Local issue to blame for Labour voters not turning up?

Edit: Green vote has not been taken into account on this analysis.

Edited July 21, 2023 by KiwiScot

[Herman 9,779]

The tories got trounced in two and narrowly held onto one yet you're making it sound like a poor night. It sounds OK to me.😉

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

I wonder if this will encourage the French to 'stop the boats'.

All those fleeing Tory MPs washing up fearing persecution by the UK electorate.  

[KiwiScot 1,450]

8 minutes ago, Herman said:

The tories got trounced in two and narrowly held onto one yet you're making it sound like a poor night. It sounds OK to me.😉

Just looking at the numbers which reads as Tory voters happy to let them win for now. It's only the big picture that makes you think it's Torys getting slaughtered.  The results don't change my mood that the Torys are in for a crushing defeat in 2024, but it's not a given and Labour could find it wins a hung parliment and tbh this is not an improvement.

Edited July 21, 2023 by KiwiScot

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

15 minutes ago, KiwiScot said:

Just looking at the numbers which reads as Tory voters happy to let them win for now. It's only the big picture that makes you think it's Torys getting slaughtered.  The results don't change my mood that the Torys are in for a crushing defeat in 2024, but it's not a given and Labour could find it wins a hung parliment and tbh this is not an improvement.

Mercer should go back to being a Colonel in the Catering Corps after his remarks about Selby. To think the constituents preferred the chap he called an inbetweener over one of his mates shows the bitterness and lack of contriteness.

What is all this nonsense about Uxbridge? It is all about economy. And charging people to either buy a suitable car or pay a fee is hitting people dramatically. Whether its justified is another matter for debate. But to find that you have to fork out £12.50 every time is going to make you think twice who you vote for. That they reduced the big majority is proof enough that even that dilemma did not stop people either staying away which is saying the winner is fine with me whoever it is or voting against the Tories.

Its no good trying to spin this any other way. Too many ah buts or maybes. On the night, the Government took a beating. It wasn't long ago, three years, that people were saying Labour will be out of office for decades so the turnaround is dramatic. And since SKS says beggar all about policies, its obviously mass discontent with a party that has had the leaders in three years since the last GE.

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes.

I think Uxbridge is the exception to the rule that basically the polls are correct and Labour is 20+ points ahead.

That said - Uxbridge also reinforces SKS view of no policies that are 'hostages to fortune'. Labour needs a big swing and he doesn't need the Tories peeling away any large number of voters.

I know Uxbridge quite well - got married there - and I can fully understand the (temporary) local issue of the ULEZ. Khan is being over-prescriptive and needs to take people with him. Uxbridge isn't central London even if it is on the underground and just inside the M25. Others in similar non-metropolitan cities should take note. The electorate can punish idealists.

If you live somewhere like Uxbridge you are 20 to 30% more likely to die prematurely of a heart attack or stroke. That's because of pollution. Khan isn't an idealist, he's a realist. He knows that pollution is killing people. This isn't new information, it's based on worldwide studies carried out by the W.H.O. The problem is half the population is too stupid to believe it. 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

1 hour ago, dylanisabaddog said:

If you live somewhere like Uxbridge you are 20 to 30% more likely to die prematurely of a heart attack or stroke. That's because of pollution. Khan isn't an idealist, he's a realist. He knows that pollution is killing people. This isn't new information, it's based on worldwide studies carried out by the W.H.O. The problem is half the population is too stupid to believe it. 

I'm fairly confident that Khan will be found to of overstepped (over hurried) his mark.

I used to live in a very rural setting inside the M25 - in fields. Combine harvesters, tractors etc. It was a nice country walk to even reach the M25. I also used to counter-commute as per many others in these areas in/out of Greater London. The idea that all of these areas are high density polluted metropolitan towns is nonsense. They are largely grey areas well removed from central London.

That said, vehicles of all sorts are rapidly improving. It's the over hurried idealistic imposition what I suspect riles people.

 

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm fairly confident that Khan will be found to of overstepped (over hurried) his mark.

I used to live in a very rural setting inside the M25 - in fields. Combine harvesters, tractors etc. It was a nice country walk to even reach the M25. I also used to counter-commute as per many others in these areas in/out of Greater London. The idea that all of these areas are high density polluted metropolitan towns is nonsense. They are largely grey areas well removed from central London.

That said, vehicles of all sorts are rapidly improving. It's the over hurried idealistic imposition what I suspect riles people.

 

 

It seems so many are now panicking. Climate change and pollution have been around since the 80s. Now, the race to be popular about doing something is rebounding. 

They have left it too long about electric vehicles and batteries. We should have been ready now. 

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm fairly confident that Khan will be found to of overstepped (over hurried) his mark.

I used to live in a very rural setting inside the M25 - in fields. Combine harvesters, tractors etc. It was a nice country walk to even reach the M25. I also used to counter-commute as per many others in these areas in/out of Greater London. The idea that all of these areas are high density polluted metropolitan towns is nonsense. They are largely grey areas well removed from central London.

That said, vehicles of all sorts are rapidly improving. It's the over hurried idealistic imposition what I suspect riles people.

 

 

It's not hurried or idealistic. It's saving people's lives, improving their quality of life and saving a huge amount of money in future health costs

https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/hillingdon_air_quality_for_public_health_professionals.pdf

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

6 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

It seems so many are now panicking. Climate change and pollution have been around since the 80s. Now, the race to be popular about doing something is rebounding. 

They have left it too long about electric vehicles and batteries. We should have been ready now. 

The funny thing is that diesel was the solution to CO2 emissions. 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

28 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

It's not hurried or idealistic. It's saving people's lives, improving their quality of life and saving a huge amount of money in future health costs

https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/hillingdon_air_quality_for_public_health_professionals.pdf

I'm not trying to argue the case for improving to less polluting vehicles - just the politics of achieving it. Vehicles are improving anyway but few in outer London would normally wish to drive into inner (current ULEZ) London but many from either side of the M25 will be in/out of such proposed new zones for work or family. My particular laugh is Heathrow (and its car parks) being inside such a zone. One size doesn't fit all. It's the buffer zone which is wrong.

Edited July 21, 2023 by Yellow Fever

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

Just now, Yellow Fever said:

I'm not trying to argue the case for improving to less polluting vehicles - just the politics of achieving it. Vehicles are improving anyway but few in outer London would normally wish to drive into inner (current ULEZ) London but many from either side of the M25 will be in/out of such proposed new zones for work or family. My particular laugh is Heathrow (and its car parks) being inside such a zone). One size doesn't fit all. It's the buffer zone which is wrong.

Blimey, you read all that quickly 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

7 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Blimey, you read all that quickly 

Because it about the politics and the (current) legal case and position.