Different Season – Same Result?

[Curious Canary 0]

Fact is that we have been relegated three times from the Premier League.

In each case we had a chance to stay up with three games to go.

1994-95

Liverpool (H) lost

Leeds (A) lost

Aston Villa (H) drew

1 point out of 9

Relegated by 5 points

2004-05

Southampton (A) lost

Birmingham (H) won

Fulham (A) lost

3 points out of 9

Relegated by 1 point

2013-14

Fulham (A) lost

Liverpool (H) lost

Man U (A) lost

0 points out of 9

Relegated by 3 points

Looks like déjà vu all over again.

[morty 0]

Thats the spirit[Y]

[ricardo 8,034]

We had a good finish back in ''71/72 but history is not on our side when it comes to relegation battles in recent times.3 games left to summon up the law of averages.[Y]

[Bradley Johnsons left foot 0]

A point against inconsistent Man Utd, and wins against ''on the beach Watford'' and out of sorts Everton and we will be on 39 points.

Looks unlikely but you never know, just look at the current Premier League champions...

[Bradley Johnsons left foot 0]

38*

[Row D Seat 7 0]

I think, at 9.30pm on 11th May, if we are still in with a chance of staying up - we could well stay up. At the moment, it''s hard to make a case for us because of the underperforming season we''ve had and the fact that we can''t defend or score, but Alex Neil has shown that when he''s absolutely needed results, and I''m talking the second leg against Hibernian to gain promotion and Middlesbough at Wembley, he''s got those results.

There''s no doubt that if we are relegated, we will fully deserve it. After all, it''s not down to hard luck when you''re relegated after a 38 game season. It''s because you didn''t do enough to stay up. However, whilst there''s still hope, and whilst Leicester City are still champions, I''m fairly sure anything is possible.

[unique 466]

The big problem is that Sunderland also face an ''on the beach Watford'' and an ''out of sorts Everton'', and it is safe to say that right now, Chelsea are far more inconsistent than Man Utd.

The fact that they are a point ahead and have a striker who knows where the back of the net is, suggests they are holding the trump cards.

A demoralised Spurs with zilch to play for and key players suspended is looking a far less daunting prospect for Newcastle and their last game of the season.

Norwich now very much have their backs to the wall and could do with a good slice of the fortune that Sunderland and Newcastle have enjoyed recently.

[Ginja 43]

The fact of the matter is that it can be done, we have a game in hand on Newcastle and Sunderland are likely to drop points, back to back home wins is not a complete fantasy, even a draw and a win would be good and we''d likely go to Everton still in with a good chance of staying up.

On the flip side it could also be all but over come Sat night but there is more than chance we could stay up as it stands and if we beat Utd then the pressure will be on for Newcastle and Sunderland.

[Curious Canary 0]

Fact of the matter is that it could have been done on the three previous occasions.

It wasn’t.

It’s not impossible but it is unlikely.

The law of averages is of no relevance.

“Every dog has its day” would be more appropriate.

But then we don’t win a lot.

[It's Character Forming 1,204]

If you''re one of 3 or 4 teams fighting for a single survival place towards the end of the season, most of the time you''re not going to be the one survivor.  Also teams that survive a brush with relegation or two, can actually get better at scrapping to survive, although eventually their luck runs out (Wigan, Villa).  We have no experience of achieving that.

 

The worry for me at the moment is that both Newcastle and Sunderland are hard to beat at the moment, so they''re picking up points steadily.  Saturday was a classic example of a decent performance but ending up with nothing.  Hence most people would say we are most likely to go down of the 3, with mixed views on which of them will survive.

 

But it''s down to just 3 games, with very little in it between the 3 teams.  So if we can just pull out some results, rather than good performances, it''s entirely possible we''ll survive.

[pete 371]

Last 3 games of 2014 were:

Arsenal 0-2 was 38th game and Fulham was not 36th. Chelsea was 37th I believe 0-0, Man U 4-0 was 36th as far as I can remember.

[Mr Sausage 0]

I am happy to happy clap with the best of you and clearly there is still a mathematical chance we can stay up its just our form stinks at the moment

[It's Character Forming 1,204]

I''m not sure you''ve firmly grasped the "happy clap" concept.

[Curious Canary 0]

Pete well spotted, nice to see that someone is on the ball.

As you point out it was:

2013-14

Man U (A) lost

Chelsea (A) drew

Arsenal (H) lost

1 point out of 9

Relegated by 3 points

Looking again I see we only managed 1 point from a possible 21 in the last 7 games, so at least we must better that as we already have 3.

[Tetteys Jig 851]

04-05 conveniently leaves out the 2-0 home win over Man United... we were in pretty good form then to drag ourselves out of it in time for the last day only for that blasted game against Fulham. Perhaps we can put ourselves back in that position in time for Everton away and actually turn up this time.

[It's Character Forming 1,204]

[quote user="Tetteys Jig"]04-05 conveniently leaves out the 2-0 home win over Man United... we were in pretty good form then to drag ourselves out of it in time for the last day only for that blasted game against Fulham. Perhaps we can put ourselves back in that position in time for Everton away and actually turn up this time.[/quote]

 

Didn''t West Brom leapfrog about 3 teams to survive on final day then, including us ? 

 

So actually the two relegations (04/05 and 13/14) were completely different.  In 04/05 we had a strange start with loads of draws but unable to get a win, but towards the end of the season we were getting it together (Dean Ashton making a huge difference) and got back to the point where it was in our hands and a win on final day would have been enough to make sure we''d have been safe.  In 13/14 we were pretty poor all along but picked up the odd win here or there and had a brief spell late in 2013 with a few good results, so we were consistently a few points above the relegation zone but never far enough to be at all comfortable.  From Christmas onwards our form took a big dip and we always knew the last 5 games would be extremely tough, so when we failed to pick up a reasonable number of points from the easier run of games before that run in, we know we were in trouble despite being 5 points clear after the defeat to WBA at home which was the final straw for Hughton - that masked the reality of our position which was that after the teams below us had played their games in hand, we were in the drop zone at that point, and with just 1 point from the final 5 games it ended more with a whimper than a bang.

[Tetteys Jig 851]

Sums it up pretty well! Man u is a perfectly beatable side these days, i believe it is still in our hands, just worried we don''t have enough quality in any part of the pitch really to pick these games off often enough.

[Crafty Canary 547]

Some time ago Stan Collymore predicted we would get no more than 32 points. Recently Charlie Nicholas had us getting 31 points and today Micky ''fat git'' Quinn has us not getting another point this season, so 31 points. I have not heard one pundit say or write that we will survive.

Now I''m not the best forecaster in the world but did think to myself that Sunderland would end their poor run of results at Carrow Road. Well I''m going to put my head right onn the block now as this weekend Villa will beat Newcastle, Chelsea will win at Sunderland and we''ll get a point against United. Whether it would keep us up we''ll see but I have had this feeling about the Villa Toon game all week.

[lappinitup 629]

[quote user="Crafty Canary"]Well I''m going to put my head right onn the block now as this weekend Villa will beat Newcastle, Chelsea will win at Sunderland and we''ll get a point against United. Whether it would keep us up we''ll see but I have had this feeling about the Villa Toon game all week.[/quote]I agree with you Crafty. There is a long history of teams getting shock results once relegation is confirmed. The pressure is off and players are playing for their futures. You just need to look at last Saturday when Bolton with just four wins all season beat play-off contenders Hull.I would think there will be several scouts in attendance picking over the Villa carcass and players playing out of their skin in the hope of getting transferred back to a Premier League side. Good call. [Y]

[It's Character Forming 1,204]

[quote user="Crafty Canary"]Some time ago Stan Collymore predicted we would get no more than 32 points. Recently Charlie Nicholas had us getting 31 points and today Micky ''fat git'' Quinn has us not getting another point this season, so 31 points. I have not heard one pundit say or write that we will survive. Now I''m not the best forecaster in the world but did think to myself that Sunderland would end their poor run of results at Carrow Road. Well I''m going to put my head right onn the block now as this weekend Villa will beat Newcastle, Chelsea will win at Sunderland and we''ll get a point against United. Whether it would keep us up we''ll see but I have had this feeling about the Villa Toon game all week.[/quote]

 

Yeah I''ve had a feeling Villa will pull out a result now the pressure is off.  I''ll go with your predictions.  Which would certainly tee things up very nicely for the last 2 games !

[Ginja 43]

[quote user="lappinitup"][quote user="Crafty Canary"]Well I''m going to put my head right onn the block now as this weekend Villa will beat Newcastle, Chelsea will win at Sunderland and we''ll get a point against United. Whether it would keep us up we''ll see but I have had this feeling about the Villa Toon game all week.[/quote]I agree with you Crafty. There is a long history of teams getting shock results once relegation is confirmed. The pressure is off and players are playing for their futures. You just need to look at last Saturday when Bolton with just four wins all season beat play-off contenders Hull.I would think there will be several scouts in attendance picking over the Villa carcass and players playing out of their skin in the hope of getting transferred back to a Premier League side. Good call. [Y][/quote]

Not to mention they have an awful away record, only 8 points (0.44 ppg), conceded the most, scored the least and failed to score in half of them.