head not heart can we survive ?

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

Sorry, did rather b*gger up the quote button on my last post, but you get my drift.......

[Chelmsford Canary 0]

Yes

[Warren Hill 0]

[quote user="TIL 1010"]Looks to me that Warren is dependant on the inability of others to come past us rather than our own ability to stay clear of the scrap at the bottom.[/quote]

 

Oh dear..

 

I think we''ll be fine, I stated so in my first post on this thread, we''re the 6th worst team in the league based on 21 games played, 3 teams are going to have to improve to finish above us. I''m just interested as to who people, like yourself, who think we are going down think those teams will be.

 

Palace? Sunderland? West Ham? West Brom? Fulham?

 

And why they think they will improve sufficiently to go past us?

 

I''m not reliant on anything, I think we''ll stay up, it''s you that thinks we''re worse than our league position so these teams HAVE to come past us for you to be right. Tell me why you think they will.

 

[the bristol nest 0]

Heart?

CH finally gets a full and squad and knows how to get the very best out of it giving us a cracking end to the season including a couple of big scalps!

Head? Relegated.

[TIL 1010 4,779]

We have '' six pointers'' looming up against Fulham, West Ham, Sunderland and West Brom and I cannot see us winning anymore than one of those at best.

[ricardo 7,395]

[quote user="rowdyman"][quote user="ricardo"]Very few ever bother to check the facts before posting.[/quote]

because you are the main man on here arent you Ricardo.[/quote]

I''m pleased to see that you''ve noticed but that shouldn''t stop you from getting your facts right before posting.You say this;-we are not beating teams around us, too many draws rather than winsHowever a glance at the stats we see this;-Of the teams from 12th place downwards we have played 9 games, Won 4  Drawn 4 and Lost 1 Points 16.How can we discuss your OP when it is basically counter-factual?

[Muffles 8]

IF, I was a neutral, I''d be looking at the table and say very much that City are in trouble - which we are. Realistically we need another 21 points to probably be safe - can we get 7 wins? Or 5 wins and 6 draws or so?

Head says yes, we will survive, just - but only due to the fact that I can see 3 teams worse than us... Fulham are sliding, probably Sunderland too. Throw in Palace and Cardiff who will continue to struggle and take into account that anyone up to 10th (Hull) who are only 6 points off the bottom are liable to go, then we just got to make sure we pick up the points against teams around us, which we do manage.

Beyond this season, I think given the real talent we have at the club, something has got to change, either Hughton gets a more attack minded coach or the board say, thank you very much, but it''s time to move on.

[CanaryOne 0]

You dont need to look at facts just take a good long look at Norwich then try to find three teams worse , below us West Ham winning again now Carrol is back , Sunderland picking up under Poyet , Palace improving under Pullis . Fulham look utter garbage but they came to fortress Carrow Road and waltzed off with 3 points (we can put that down to being a bogey side right ? lmao . We are down and we deserve it for sticking with an utter clown for so long .

[nutty nigel 7,565]

This thing about what the neutrals think is interesting after the poll on MOTD on Saturday. There really is no need to guess..

 

 

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

[quote user="CanaryOne"]You dont need to look at facts just take a good long look at Norwich then try to find three teams worse , below us West Ham winning again now Carrol is back , Sunderland picking up under Poyet , Palace improving under Pullis . Fulham look utter garbage but they came to fortress Carrow Road and waltzed off with 3 points (we can put that down to being a bogey side right ? lmao . We are down and we deserve it for sticking with an utter clown for so long .[/quote]So just to clarify, West Ham win 1 game which Carrol came off the bench and played 18 mins, and now they''re going to go on a run of wins and are way better than us because Carol is ''back''?I know things aren''t brilliant on our side of the fence, but the way some people are looking at the other side is simply laughable.

[rowdyman 0]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="rowdyman"][quote user="ricardo"]Very few ever bother to check the facts before posting.[/quote]

because you are the main man on here arent you Ricardo.[/quote]

I''m pleased to see that you''ve noticed but that shouldn''t stop you from getting your facts right before posting.You say this;-we are not beating teams around us, too many draws rather than winsHowever a glance at the stats we see this;-Of the teams from 12th place downwards we have played 9 games, Won 4  Drawn 4 and Lost 1 Points 16.How can we discuss your OP when it is basically counter-factual?[/quote]

i did say my post was imo did not say it was factual stats and i still believe we aint won enough away games or enough against teams around us, is 50 percent enough then? imo no, not with the squad we have it is my opinion rightly or wrongly just asking others theirs, why is that so wrong with you.

[ricardo 7,395]

[quote user="CanaryOne"]You dont need to look at facts just take a good long look at Norwich then try to find three teams worse , below us West Ham winning again now Carrol is back , Sunderland picking up under Poyet , Palace improving under Pullis . Fulham look utter garbage but they came to fortress Carrow Road and waltzed off with 3 points (we can put that down to being a bogey side right ? lmao . We are down and we deserve it for sticking with an utter clown for so long .[/quote]Actually you do, else you make basic mistakes in your assumptions.In the last nine games Sunderland and Palace have managed to gain one more point than we have while WHam have gained one less.

[Redders Right Foot 22]

didn''t we win 4 away games all of last season?

head says we will survive, just. Heart says we will pull through this season and finish between 12-10.

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="CanaryOne"]You dont need to look at facts just take a good long look at Norwich then try to find three teams worse , below us West Ham winning again now Carrol is back , Sunderland picking up under Poyet , Palace improving under Pullis . Fulham look utter garbage but they came to fortress Carrow Road and waltzed off with 3 points (we can put that down to being a bogey side right ? lmao . We are down and we deserve it for sticking with an utter clown for so long .[/quote]Actually you do, else you make basic mistakes in your assumptions.In the last nine games Sunderland and Palace have managed to gain one more point than we have while WHam have gained one less.

[/quote]Come on Ricardo. You can do better than that. Why nine games ? Why not 12. Or 10, or 6, or 20 ?  Because nine fits in with your agenda.You really must stop confusing spin with facts.

[ricardo 7,395]

[quote user="rowdyman"] i did say my post was imo did not say it was factual stats and i still believe we aint won enough away games or enough against teams around us, is 50 percent enough then? imo no, not with the squad we have it is my opinion rightly or wrongly just asking others theirs, why is that so wrong with you.[/quote]

It''s a fair opinion, there''s nothing wrong with it and you might well turn out to be right but it adds nothing by using incorrect stats. Your opinion is one held be many and at the end of the season you might turn out to be right. I don''t know how it will end, but I do know it is likely to go right to the wire.If pushed for a prediction I will say that there are likely to be at least three worse teams than us and 36 points might well be enough for safety. Other than that all is speculation.

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

[quote user="Javiers Deaf Translator"]didn''t we win 4 away games all of last season?

head says we will survive, just. Heart says we will pull through this season and finish between 12-10.[/quote]No, we only won 2.We''ve already equaled that this season.

[ricardo 7,395]

[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="ricardo"][quote user="CanaryOne"]You dont need to look at facts just take a good long look at Norwich then try to find three teams worse , below us West Ham winning again now Carrol is back , Sunderland picking up under Poyet , Palace improving under Pullis . Fulham look utter garbage but they came to fortress Carrow Road and waltzed off with 3 points (we can put that down to being a bogey side right ? lmao . We are down and we deserve it for sticking with an utter clown for so long .[/quote]Actually you do, else you make basic mistakes in your assumptions.In the last nine games Sunderland and Palace have managed to gain one more point than we have while WHam have gained one less.

[/quote]Come on Ricardo. You can do better than that. Why nine games ? Why not 12. Or 10, or 6, or 20 ?  Because nine fits in with your agenda.You really must stop confusing spin with facts.[/quote]

The reason I used nine is because it is a reasonable sized window and 9 further games have taken place since the 12 game mark that I used for my original analysis. I based my relegation thesis on the 12 game mark and here we are a few weeks later on 21 games. I can''t really alter that without time travel.You really need to get out of the idea that everyone is trying to spin the stats to prove you wrong Reg.If you want a full picture just look at the league table. The only distortion with that is some teams have played one more game away than at home and vice versa.

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]You really need to get out of the idea that everyone is trying to spin the stats to prove you wrong Reg.

[/quote]Not everyone, Rick.Just you.

Like I said, your ''9 game window'' was some invention of yours that fitted in with your previous 12 game invention.Yes. You are right on one thing. The only stats that matter are the league table. And I see us one defeat away from the bottom 3.

[Shaun Tilly Lace 0]

No idea.

[whoareyou? 0]

Yes - We have enough decent players to get us out of this providing we have no more lengthy injuries to key players.

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="ricardo"]You really need to get out of the idea that everyone is trying to spin the stats to prove you wrong Reg.

[/quote]Not everyone, Rick.Just you.

Like I said, your ''9 game window'' was some invention of yours that fitted in with your previous 12 game invention.Yes. You are right on one thing. The only stats that matter are the league table. And I see us one defeat away from the bottom 3.[/quote]7 clubs are in that boat. We''re hardly Robinson Crusoe there are we? Or, to go all stats on you, 35% of all Premier League clubs are either in the bottom 3, or 1 win from it. [;)]I wonder if the other 6 has message boards as wet as this one.

[Warren Hill 0]

[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="ricardo"]You really need to get out of the idea that everyone is trying to spin the stats to prove you wrong Reg.

[/quote]Not everyone, Rick.Just you.

Like I said, your ''9 game window'' was some invention of yours that fitted in with your previous 12 game invention.Yes. You are right on one thing. The only stats that matter are the league table. And I see us one defeat away from the bottom 3.[/quote]

Or one win from...?

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

[quote user="The ghost of Michael Theoklitos"]7 clubs are in that boat. We''re hardly Robinson Crusoe there are we? Or, to go all stats on you, 35% of all Premier League clubs are either in the bottom 3, or 1 win from it. [;)]I wonder if the other 6 has message boards as wet as this one.

[/quote]Not denying any of that Theo. Nor the accuracy of Warren''s point.But this thread was a simple one where the OP asked a perfectly reasonable question, concerning what posters thought was the likely outcome of our season. Just opinions. Guesswork. Crystal Ball gazing. Nothing more.But, as usual, Rick and others had to turn it into a so called ''stat'' fest .It''s not what the thread was about. Cannot anyone just have a hunch these days without being shouted down by the "fact merchants". ?

[ricardo 7,395]

[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="ricardo"]You really need to get out of the idea that everyone is trying to spin the stats to prove you wrong Reg.

[/quote]Not everyone, Rick.Just you.

Like I said, your ''9 game window'' was some invention of yours that fitted in with your previous 12 game invention.Yes. You are right on one thing. The only stats that matter are the league table. And I see us one defeat away from the bottom 3.[/quote]Well I can''t invent a way to make 21-9 any less than 12 and since 12 is the baseline that we started from what number of games would you suggest we look at to see how much progress the others have made on us. We could go back to 8,7, or 6 games but then they would have made even less progress on us.West Ham and Sunderland both won on Saturday while Palace lost and two have gained a point and one lost a point in all that time. No amount of spin will make the facts anything other than what they are.

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="ricardo"]You really need to get out of the idea that everyone is trying to spin the stats to prove you wrong Reg.

[/quote]Not everyone, Rick.Just you.

Like I said, your ''9 game window'' was some invention of yours that fitted in with your previous 12 game invention.Yes. You are right on one thing. The only stats that matter are the league table. And I see us one defeat away from the bottom 3.[/quote]Well I can''t invent a way to make 21-9 any less than 12 and since 12 is the baseline that we started from what number of games would you suggest we look at to see how much progress the others have made on us. We could go back to 8,7, or 6 games but then they would have made even less progress on us.West Ham and Sunderland both won on Saturday while Palace lost and two have gained a point and one lost a point in all that time. No amount of spin will make the facts anything other than what they are.[/quote]I refer the Honourable Gentleman to the answer I gave in the post above........

[ricardo 7,395]

[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"]But this thread was a simple one where the OP asked a perfectly reasonable question, concerning what posters thought was the likely outcome of our season. Just opinions. Guesswork. Crystal Ball gazing. Nothing more.But, as usual, Rick and others had to turn it into a so called ''stat'' fest .It''s not what the thread was about. Cannot anyone just have a hunch these days without being shouted down by the "fact merchants". ?[/quote]Perhaps you should look at my reply at the bottom of page 3 of this thread and you might find my answer.

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="The ghost of Michael Theoklitos"]7 clubs are in that boat. We''re hardly Robinson Crusoe there are we? Or, to go all stats on you, 35% of all Premier League clubs are either in the bottom 3, or 1 win from it. [;)]I wonder if the other 6 has message boards as wet as this one.

[/quote]Not denying any of that Theo. Nor the accuracy of Warren''s point.But this thread was a simple one where the OP asked a perfectly reasonable question, concerning what posters thought was the likely outcome of our season. Just opinions. Guesswork. Crystal Ball gazing. Nothing more.But, as usual, Rick and others had to turn it into a so called ''stat'' fest .It''s not what the thread was about. Cannot anyone just have a hunch these days without being shouted down by the "fact merchants". ?[/quote]I disagree.Those who like to use data to form an argument or opinion have every right to do so. It''s possibly more accurate than using said crystal ball.Personally, I''m probably not as optimistic as many of my posts on here might suggest. The only thing I hate is people wheeling out the same old cliche''s about us being ''unable to keep a clean sheet'', or ''unable to win away from home'' etc. It annoys me because although it''s been expressed as an opinion, it''s not. That''s something that is a supposed fact, which can be supported or debunked with the use of data or stats.Now, I''m not saying you have done the above. I like to discuss things with you Reggie, because you never get overly emotional or personal, and post things through reasonably. I think you''re a good poster. However IMO, the reason these things sometimes descend into a ''statfest'' is because of those types of posters I described above..I''m sorry if I sometimes get a little ''statsie''. However, all I''m doing is trying to provide data to portray another opinion.As for my opinion on the original question? I think it will be tight, but I think we''ll be OK (at which point we should see what better managerial options are out there and see if we can make a change. I don''t agree with making a managerial change now, as I don''t see any better options available).But what do I know......

[rowdyman 0]

Stats are that stats, the reality is we spent 26 mill and the team are no better than last year and maybe could even be worse by end of season. Ok we have won twice away from home but imo, thats not good enough with the players we have nor is 50 percent win rate against teams around us, Last year our 10 match unbeaten run saved us, this year we never look like going on a decent run. We go a goal down we never look like recovering to win, whats our stats on that this season Ricardo, not a dig pal a geniune question. As i have said i am a city fan and i want us to stay up bigtime just cannot make an argument for it happening.

[Dubai Mark 0]

This is a good question and after much thought, weighing everything up....

Heart says: YES we will stay up, but it will be a close run thing

Head say: YES we will stay up, but it will be a close run thing  

[nutty nigel 7,565]

Here you go Ricky...

 

http://stats.football365.co.uk/dom/ENG/PR/ptsgain.html

 

Have a good week ''til next week[;)]