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I cranked my algorithm for guessing the final table based on the season so far (using points per game against teams in the same part of the table, home and away). It has us finishing on 102-103 points with Swansea second on 90; Watford and Brentford are looking at 84-85 points, so 86 could actually be enough for automatic promotion.

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Very interesting projection, nice work for compiling!

Yes 86 could be enough... but on the other hand, if Swansea, Brentford and Watford's form until the end of the season is really good, they could easily pick up a few 'extra' wins and end up on 92/93. I wouldn't rule out an end of season burst from these 3. 

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I said a few games back that I think on current form only us and Swansea will breach 90 points. I think in terms of competition this is one of the closer years - any of the top 5 have pretty decent squads, and you can probably include Bournemouth in that too. The good news is we've done a lot of the hard work to build up a decent gap, just got to win our own games one by one and do it our way

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27 minutes ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

Gotta be honest, I'd be dreading the PlayOffs this year. Need to get autos wrapped up asap, then worry about top spot.

they amount to the same

it is impossible to accumulate points for the former only

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11 minutes ago, Bill said:

they amount to the same

it is impossible to accumulate points for the former only

Tell that to Swansea...

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5 hours ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

Gotta be honest, I'd be dreading the PlayOffs this year. Need to get autos wrapped up asap, then worry about top spot.

 

5 hours ago, Bill said:

they amount to the same

it is impossible to accumulate points for the former only

What CW says makes perfect sense to me.

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Does the algorithm allow for Swansea being given a penalty in every game until the end of the season ( taking into account recent performances ), and also having at least 6 minutes added on at the end of games if they need this extra time to be given the penalty ?

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On 09/03/2021 at 13:25, Canary Wundaboy said:

Gotta be honest, I'd be dreading the PlayOffs this year. Need to get autos wrapped up asap, then worry about top spot.

I'm hoping we can get to the last 5 games with the same buffer we have now or better... almost like a mini play-off run for our own aspirations.

There is still so much to play for. Middlesbrough in 9th are 8 points off 6th and will believe with a good run they still stand a chance of getting there. Stoke in 10th with 48 are ranked outsiders but 10pts isn't an unheard of overhaul and to be fair, were robbed Vs Swansea... Millwall and QPR are both on 46 points and fill 11th and 12th, but QPR have a game in hand so could be on 49 which would put them 9 points off 6th. Now, huge swings needed, but not unseen or unheard of.

Right now, two wins by a number of teams and dropped points by their rivals could change the table dramatically. As it stands both Brentford and Swansea have a game in hand and could move to 7 points behind if they win that game. It's still fairly precarious.

These next 6 games will determine how important the final run of 5 games is, and whilst some are starting to sort out the Premier League dream signings in their minds, I am a bit more cautious.

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For me it's the games between now and the international break. Swansea in particular have a run (away to two different sides of the country and home Cardiff) that IMO will very much determine if they're auto contenders or playoffs.

We aren't quite at that stage yet, but the teams below us will soon begin to feel the pressure that one slip might cut them out of the race- and in a backwards way, the condensed season now helps us as having extra games in a short space of time really doesn't help.

 

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