Van wink 2,994 Posted October 17, 2019 1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said: I think the chances of someone vetoing have increased. After all, there is no more the EU can offer that would make a difference, and there is no guarantee an election would change the parliamentary arithmetic enough to make a very different kind of deal - the UK staying in a CU for example - feasible. If it came to it, between those three current options, a guess would be this deal. Between No-Deal and Revoke, Revoke. “I think the chances of someone vetoing have increased” So do I. This feels like the end of the road, one way or another. I suspect Macron May well have had an oeff. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted October 17, 2019 35 minutes ago, Herman said: So a change of name, from May to Johnson, on the front page of this deal is all it is. Will people fall for it?? What happened to the amendment that required the May deal to come back to the House? It got passed, by accident as I recall . 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KiwiScot 1,443 Posted October 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, Bill said: not neccesarily simply down to a hung parliament as May's deals were rejected by government MPs Ok simply not down to a hung parliment but I'd argue that it makes action harder as its suspectible to many more people/parties influencing the decisions and an increase of disgruntled people with the power to excercise their own individual power. Your own MPs voting against you being one of them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted October 17, 2019 Does the Ben Act require a letter to be sent if a deal has been agreed? Has a deal been agreed? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hairy Canary 703 Posted October 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Van wink said: Does the Ben Act require a letter to be sent if a deal has been agreed? Has a deal been agreed? It has to be sent if any deal has been rejected by Parliament. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted October 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Van wink said: Does the Ben Act require a letter to be sent if a deal has been agreed? Has a deal been agreed? yes, it happened yesterday today is Sunday and the A11 is still a single carriageway Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted October 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, KiwiScot said: Ok simply not down to a hung parliment but I'd argue that it makes action harder as its suspectible to many more people/parties influencing the decisions and an increase of disgruntled people with the power to excercise their own individual power. Your own MPs voting against you being one of them. MPs cannot vote against you as they are NOT mandated and is that (highlighted) such a bad thing ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,783 Posted October 17, 2019 (edited) I see the govt are spinning for Saturday to try to make it an either/or and no amendments. Little to zero chance of that. When in hole stop digging. I think they are doomed. DUP won't vote for it - and ergo nor will the ERG which take their lead from the DUP. I wonder if Corbyn is thinking about new curtains yet? Edited October 17, 2019 by Yellow Fever Yup - that fox has been shot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hairy Canary 703 Posted October 17, 2019 Interesting. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted October 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said: Interesting. not really, Remain will simply amend that motion Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PurpleCanary 5,558 Posted October 17, 2019 27 minutes ago, Van wink said: I think the chances of someone vetoing have increased. After all, there is no more the EU can offer that would make a difference, and there is no guarantee an election would change the parliamentary arithmetic enough to make a very different kind of deal - the UK staying in a CU for example - feasible. If it came to it, between those three current options, a guess would be this deal. Between No-Deal and Revoke, Revoke. “I think the chances of someone vetoing have increased” So do I. This feels like the end of the road, one way or another. I suspect Macron May well have had an oeff. Increased but not necessarily probable. If this deal gets voted down by MPs then today's events will have done nothing to change the default position, which is that sooner or later the UK will leave the EU, even if an extension is granted, or even a whole string of them, unless MPs vote for an alternative, whether that is Revoking Article 50 or accepting a deal the EU has already agreed or one it is willing to agree to. There could be a majority for Revoke (I think there would) with this set of MPs if that was set against solely No-Deal, but until now the anti-No-Deal vote has been split between those wanting to Remain and those wanting a deal, because that latter option has never been closed off. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hairy Canary 703 Posted October 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bill said: not really, Remain will simply amend that motion What motion? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,783 Posted October 17, 2019 Just now, Hairy Canary said: What motion? Boris is simply trying to 'close off' other options. However he has no power so to do and does not control the EU (and in any event an extension would be needed to pass the so called deal) or as is now obvious the HoP. It's all bluster. The EU want a deal - and I see no problem with an extension to them (already nodded too), providing we had some definitive plan to resolve the issue. That's likely to be a ref. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted October 17, 2019 Bill Members 540 27,166 posts Report post Posted 29 minutes ago 35 minutes ago, Van wink said: Does the Ben Act require a letter to be sent if a deal has been agreed? Has a deal been agreed? yes, it happened yesterday today is Sunday and the A11 is still a single carriageway nice one 👍 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted October 17, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said: What motion? really ? just as I said earlier The government has lost the first vote on the Saturday sitting. Sir Oliver Letwin’s amendment (see 1.29pm) was passed by 287 votes to 275 - a majority of 12. Explaining his amendment in the debate Letwin said this would allow the government motion on Saturday to be amended. He implied it would allow MPs to insist on Boris Johnson requesting an extension anyway, and only withdrawing that request when the legislation for his deal has passed." do you not know what Saturday is about, or what procedure it involves ? something that over rules the stick insect's earlier squeak 'Rees-Mogg said MPs would then vote either on a motion to back the deal, or on one to approve no deal. He explained: The debate that follows will be a motion to either approve a deal or to approve a no-deal exit.' Edited October 17, 2019 by Bill Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hairy Canary 703 Posted October 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said: Boris is simply trying to 'close off' other options. However he has no power so to do and does not control the EU (and in any event an extension would be needed to pass the so called deal) or as is now obvious the HoP. It's all bluster. The EU want a deal - and I see no problem with an extension to them (already nodded too), providing we had some definitive plan to resolve the issue. That's likely to be a ref. Yes I can agree with that. He can only request that they do not grant the extension he will have to ask them for. I'm assuming on the grounds that he will state that there is no chance of anything changing to resolve the issue. The is no way the EU will be wanting to revisit the agreement again so a confirmatory referendum would be one reason for them to agree to an extension. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,783 Posted October 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Hairy Canary said: Yes I can agree with that. He can only request that they do not grant the extension he will have to ask them for. I'm assuming on the grounds that he will state that there is no chance of anything changing to resolve the issue. The is no way the EU will be wanting to revisit the agreement again so a confirmatory referendum would be one reason for them to agree to an extension. Actually - I don't think they mind revisiting but probably not with the current 'ERG loons' in charge. A busted flush. If we came back with a CU or SM, EFTA then no problems. However I think we are heading on Saturday for 2nd ref - May's old deal with likely CU political statement vs Remain. May has the last laugh. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted October 17, 2019 (edited) So Junker rules out extension, now then, game on and minds focussed. Edited October 17, 2019 by Van wink 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hairy Canary 703 Posted October 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bill said: really ? just as I said earlier The government has lost the first vote on the Saturday sitting. Sir Oliver Letwin’s amendment (see 1.29pm) was passed by 287 votes to 275 - a majority of 12. Explaining his amendment in the debate Letwin said this would allow the government motion on Saturday to be amended. He implied it would allow MPs to insist on Boris Johnson requesting an extension anyway, and only withdrawing that request when the legislation for his deal has passed." do you not know what Saturday is about, or what procedure it involves ? Yes I accept that. Kuenssberg's tweet suggested that Johnson will submit the letter as instructed but will ASK the EU not to agree to the extension as that will force Parliament to decide between no deal and his deal. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted October 17, 2019 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said: Yes I accept that. Kuenssberg's tweet suggested that Johnson will submit the letter as instructed but will ASK the EU not to agree to the extension as that will force Parliament to decide between no deal and his deal. Junker just seemed to rule out an extension. I think they have had an oeff Edited October 17, 2019 by Van wink Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,783 Posted October 17, 2019 Just now, Van wink said: Junker just seemed to rule out an extension I saw that - Let it be clarified. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Canary Wundaboy 1,359 Posted October 17, 2019 Juncker rules out any extension. Someone call Noel Edmunds, it’s time for deal or no deal! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted October 17, 2019 To help flog tickets to hear Dim Martin speaking to a bunch of senile bigots, the Brexit Company put up a link to a supposed Dim Marin account But they seemed to forget that Martin isn't a fan of social media, and has no Twitter presence. Instead, they tagged a user with the handle @GroovyTimbo, whose profile reads: I'm Tim Martin, chairman of JD Wetherspoon, a luxury business catering to bitter old alcoholics in the mornings and pissed-up students in the evenings. oh dear, Fartrage as incompetent as ever Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,783 Posted October 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Van wink said: Junker just seemed to rule out an extension. I think they have had an oeff I think that's because there is a deal (so if accepted no need) - that has yet to pass both the EU and HoP. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hairy Canary 703 Posted October 17, 2019 I doubt Junker would have said that off the cuff without there being very careful consideration beforehand. The EU wants this deal. Without an extension that leaves the choice as no deal or this one. Parliament has consistently shown that it is against no deal so the EU gets what it wants. Thinks may be looking a little clearer. As I said. Interesting tweet from Kuenssberg.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Canary Wundaboy 1,359 Posted October 17, 2019 If it doesn’t pass HoC I don’t think they’ll extend it. I think the EU has lost patience and it’s this or nought. All that hopeful reconsidering talk has disappeared in recent weeks and they just want it over. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted October 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said: Yes I can agree with that. He can only request that they do not grant the extension he will have to ask them for. I'm assuming on the grounds that he will state that there is no chance of anything changing to resolve the issue. The is no way the EU will be wanting to revisit the agreement again so a confirmatory referendum would be one reason for them to agree to an extension. Nope, that's wrong as by doing that or anything similar he would be breaking the law ie the 'Benn Act' Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted October 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: I think that's because there is a deal (so if accepted no need) - that has yet to pass both the EU and HoP. Possibly. He may have been "shooting from the hip" Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Capt. Pants 4,234 Posted October 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, Van wink said: So Junker rules out extension, now then, game on and minds focussed. Have to say Boris is playing a blinder? Deal or no deal? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
canarydan23 4,060 Posted October 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Canary Wundaboy said: If it doesn’t pass HoC I don’t think they’ll extend it. I think the EU has lost patience and it’s this or nought. All that hopeful reconsidering talk has disappeared in recent weeks and they just want it over. I'm sure they've lost patience, but if they were presented with the option of an extension with a definitive endpoint, ie a second referendum on Johnson's deal, they would willingly agree to one, despite Junker's bluster. Imagine it, the UK Parliament says "we've passed the deal but want it given public consent", and the EU saying, "No, we're not having that". Ironically, in that hypothetical situation, it would be the Remainers moaning about the EU imposing itself on the UK whilst the Brexiteers would be cheering. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites