Best scoring record in last 30 minutes in the league?

[westcoastcanary 173]

There are three crucial words at the start of your final sentence kc: "at the moment". I don''t think anybody would deny our execution currently falls short of the level we aim to attain, and not just in the final third by the way. But as I keep saying, "flawed approach" and "flawed execution of a thoroughly sound approach" are two different things. And anyway, as hoggy keeps pointing out, if our finishing had been just a little better, bringing our ratio of goals to expected goals just a bit closer to 1:1, the final third wouldn''t seem quite such a big issue. (Last night provided another instance, with Reed failing to put away a really good chance.)

[Hank shoots Skyler 2,094]

westcoastcanary:

Out of interest, is this goals to expected goals ratio something you could provide - or have you just used it figuratively?

I''ve read a fair few posts on this board recently cursing our poor finishing as the reason we have not scored more goals. Which is true, but it is also true for every team in the championship.. We have undoubtedly created some decent chances that have not resulted in goals, but in no way do I believe this to be an abnormal proportion of missed chances. That Reed chance you mention was no easier than 2 of the Wolves chances that they both managed to miss!

In fact, a number of our tight-battled 1-0 wins have relied on moments of pure class from Maddison (Boro, Brentford, Reading, Bristol). Last night''s screamer and Trybull''s goal also stand out.

I suppose it is easier to point to individual finishing than to blame the entire system. But I believe we have been far too reliant on these types of goals to get results - and somewhat fortunate to have Maddison too - we simply do not get enough players or balls in the box going forwards, it is no surprise to see Oliviera struggling - he may have missed chances but he generally gets zero service in the penalty box imo. Any striker would struggle in this team right now. I shudder to think where we would be without Maddison and how we will be able to replicate some of these results next season when he is no longer with us.

Despite the improvement in performances in recent weeks, I still believe this to be a massive problem - particularly at home - and I think our (lack of) chance creation will be our undoing in terms of falling a fair distance short from the play-offs. I hope we can do it!

If you do have access to these statistics, I would be interested to know how our goals : expected goals ratio compare with the rest of the league. I would hazard a guess that it would be at least in the upper-middle bracket of the league.

[Rogue Baboon 0]

I agree Hank, I don’t know the figures but I guess we out XG figure would be similar to most other teams, but when you create such a small amount of chances every game each miss is amplified.

[The gut 0]

I love how two last gasp equalisers are now being hailed as massive success stories and now Farkes superb tactics are now so obvious the dimmest of us have to accept that he has been an undeniable genius all along.

Guess it depends where you take your viewpoint from.

It can reasonably be argued that despite the last two games “feeling like a win” because we salvaged a point at the death, that we might have done better in both games had he had changed his tactics earlier, even from the start. Us dimmer fans might have been able to cheer us on actually in the play off zone now if we didn’t always keep 7 defenders in place until the last few moments when we are losing.

I do know one thing ...... however people might debate the success or not of his tactics it is one hell of a boring game to watch. That has been consistently clear.

[FenwayFrank 2,459]

Ignoring Mr moan pants above, can I say that some stats, such as “expected goals” are completely daft. You either score or you don’t.

[The gut 0]

Are you enjoying the football Fenway?

Do you think these tactics will continue to bring success.

Do you not think other tactics could have brought more success?

[FenwayFrank 2,459]

Are you enjoying the football Fenway?

Actually yes I am 😀 I’m enjoying watching all our new players adapt to a new league, our young players improve and the team trying to dominate the ball. We can obviously be better in front of goal though.

Do you think these tactics will continue to bring success.

We’re in a good run at the moment and had a good run unbeaten earlier in the season so why not ?

Do you not think other tactics could have brought more success?

We don’t really know do we ? We’ve got players to play to these tactics and asking them to play a different way may not make us better but worse. Chucking more players forward could result in conceding more. Wasn’t Alex Neil criticised for this ? I suppose we could try McCarthy ball 😉

[The gut 0]

Fair play Fenway, but I am amazed. I’m finding this some of the most drab football I’ve seen at carrow rd.

You’re right, we will never know if different tactics would bring success, which is why those that think it might have done are also not in the hogesar dim category.

I certainly never criticised Alex for his attacking set up. I loved it. I can understand why others did not, but at least it was easy to stay awake at a game.

I’ve also got to say that I think old Micky M’s football would get more out of this team, but I wouldn’t want to watch his brand either.

My biggest concern is that this style of football is being bailed out by one-off wonder goals and I expect the main contributor to them will not be kept here.

[FenwayFrank 2,459]

Gut, my friends that go to carra rud think I’m a bit weird too 😀. As I said, we do need to do more in the final third, and one thing I have found frustrating is when we get the ball down the sides we hardly ever cross the ball into the box, and go back and work round and try to play through the middle instead. Perhaps Hernandez will change this

[The gut 0]

That’s two of us then Fenway haha. Good to see that we can be so far apart and have something in common.

I’m not as down as it might appear with Farke. I predicted a draw last night (not how it was achieved tho) because I think his tactics are suited to strong attacking teams.

If I am honest I would get Alex back and ask him and Daniel to be the first managers to job share. Home manager and away manager (none of this head coach rubbish).

[nutty nigel 7,536]

It''s certainly different to last season. I can''t say I enjoy the football so much but like Frank I do enjoy watching the team evolve and improve. I also currently enjoy the opposition getting flustered and frustrated at our fitness levels. It reminds me a bit of the early Ron Saunders seasons when the football was also dire at times.

The most heartening thing for me is that most of the players buy into it and team morale seems really high. Maddison certainly seems to enjoy being so fit and is benefiting greatly from it. I think we are a better team this season but perhaps not such an exciting group of individuals.

[hogesar 9,674]

Yeah. Different tactics and not only would we have beaten Wolves, wed probably not have lost a game all season

Farke out Gut in.

[westcoastcanary 173]

@Hank shoots Skyler

I have no ongoing access to those stats, but when I''ve seen them quoted our goals scored total has been consistently below our cumulative expected goals figure.  Way back on 2nd Nov a tweet from Norwich City Stats gave 14 goals scored as against 18 expected. On 5th Feb they tweeted a graph of expected goal totals for all 24 Championship clubs which put us bang in the middle, or "firmly mid table" as they put it, with an expected goals total of 37. At that point we''d scored 30, 7 down on our xG, which represents a slight improvement on the November ratio (from 0.77 to 0.81). 

As I said, we are still falling short of where we would like to be, not just attacking-wise, but it would certainly help if we could at least bring our ratio of goals scored to xG nearer 1:1. Goals like NO"s yesterday simply mask the fact that we are consistently missing chances we should put away. This is so, irrespective of a high percentage of our chances created being outside the box as opposed to inside it. 

This doesn''t answer your question about whether we are significantly less clinical than other teams. I''m not aware of any stats either way.

[If wed only kept Howie.. 3]

I believe Farke is wunderbar... however he seems to be claiming again that we score more than anyone else in the last 15mins of games.. its unfortunately not true.. 6 teams have scored more goals in the last 15mins and 2 teams have scored the same number of goals..

So why does he keep saying it?

[king canary 7,606]

I assume he means we''ve scored the highest % of goals in the last 15?

[BroadstairsR 2,168]

"It reminds me a bit of the early Ron Saunders seasons when the football was also dire at times."

The difference being that Saunders had them running up and down Mousehold Heath with a ton of bricks (or whatever ) on their backs before adjourning to the pub, whilst Farke has them on 24/7 running around in circles before adjourning for a session in front of a the blackboard for tactical analysis.

My very first away game was at Watford when a point was needed to achieve top level football for the first time ever.

Boy! Did RS stifle that boring game to a deathly 0-0 draw. The celebrations in Watford High street were far from boring though. I ended up in Rickmansworth for some reason.

[If wed only kept Howie.. 3]

i''ve checked the percentages..

Norwich 13 of 46 = 28%

Brentford 18 of 58 = 31%

Forest 13 of 43 = 30%

QPR 17 of 53 = 32%