Besthorpe-48 102 Posted March 20 So thought I would look at the number of points needed to beat 7th. Going back to 2000 the number of points gained by the 7th team is as follows 67 once 68 1 69 4times 70 7 times 71 2 72 2 73 2 74 3 75 2 78 1 Mode and median are 70 Average is 71.32 On which basis 11 points from 8 games would be enough to finish 6th half the time. Similarly 75th percentile is 73 so 74 points would be enough 3 years out of 4 or 13 points from 8 games. Of course past performance is no guide to future outcomes but quite encouraging don't you think? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,786 Posted March 20 1 minute ago, Besthorpe-48 said: So thought I would look at the number of points needed to beat 7th. Going back to 2000 the number of points gained by the 7th team is as follows 67 once 68 1 69 4times 70 7 times 71 2 72 2 73 2 74 3 75 2 78 1 Mode and median are 70 Average is 71.32 On which basis 11 points from 8 games would be enough to finish 6th half the time. Similarly 75th percentile is 73 so 74 points would be enough 3 years out of 4 or 13 points from 8 games. Of course past performance is no guide to future outcomes but quite encouraging don't you think? I suspect you're right - generally lower than some think at the moment - however you never know how many points you needed until the last game of the season when it's way too late! In reality I suspect 75 will do it - but that will be with hindsight. I'd rather not be waiting on results elsewhere on the last day of the season so target 78+ and 5th Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cambridgeshire canary 6,721 Posted March 20 Maths? At this time of day? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Capt. Pants 4,234 Posted March 20 Coventry and Hull don't have the easiest of run ins so the requirement might be nearer 70 than 80! We have Leicester and Ipswich back to back - could go finger licking good or a4se wipingly bad. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Robert N. LiM 4,360 Posted March 20 People more adept with numbers than me can confirm or deny, but isn't the question of 'how many points to beat seventh'? the wrong question? Don't we have to ask "How many points to finish sixth?" I know it seems like the same thing, but I'm not sure it is. There are only a finite number of points available in a Championship season, so in a season where the seventh-placed team have done poorly (in historical terms), that might just mean that the teams above them have done unusually well, and there might be a gap between sixth and seventh. It's basically the same debate that we had about the number of points needed to stay up in the PL, and whether you were looking at the average score of the 18th-placed team or the 17th placed team. If anyone can clarify this in terms I can understand the nerd in me would be very grateful. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nutty nigel 7,537 Posted March 20 So, if we carry on the same form we have been in since Bonfire Night, which is 23 games, or half a season, we will end up with 76 points. Maybe be enough? Cue someone posting about a random 10 games before that… 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BigFish 1,987 Posted March 20 (edited) 2 hours ago, Robert N. LiM said: People more adept with numbers than me can confirm or deny, but isn't the question of 'how many points to beat seventh'? the wrong question? Don't we have to ask "How many points to finish sixth?" I know it seems like the same thing, but I'm not sure it is. There are only a finite number of points available in a Championship season, so in a season where the seventh-placed team have done poorly (in historical terms), that might just mean that the teams above them have done unusually well, and there might be a gap between sixth and seventh. It's basically the same debate that we had about the number of points needed to stay up in the PL, and whether you were looking at the average score of the 18th-placed team or the 17th placed team. If anyone can clarify this in terms I can understand the nerd in me would be very grateful. Effectively it is the same question, although people like the former because it shaves a couple of points off the target. But there is 11 point range between the highest and lowest points achieved for 7th place which just goes to show the variability between seasons. So the actual question is how many points to achieve 6th THIS season. It is just a calculation from now until the end of the season, not a statistical average season from August. We just need to match the performance of, say, the best of the three teams below. I suspect the worst case scenario is one of them picks up 6 wins (or 2 ppm) so 75/76 is enough. Though if one of them wins the lot we would just have to take our hats off to them & it would be a record (unless we could catch WBA). Edited March 20 by BigFish 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yobocop 1,099 Posted March 20 2 hours ago, cambridgeshire canary said: Maths? At this time of day? He’s done it for you CC (luckily?) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Besthorpe-48 102 Posted March 20 4 hours ago, Yobocop said: He’s done it for you CC (luckily?) In barbados so actually 4 hours earlier than cc thought. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
