Galloway, Farage and the two party system

[lake district canary 4,536]

George Galloway has had a huge effect on the voters in Rochdale. He is a brilliant orator and has a huge online following. 

Can he break the mould and get enough disaffected labour voters to make a difference at a general election with his Workers Party?  Can Farage equally break the Tories? 

Seems to me like nobody thinks much of either of the main parties, so is it about time we had something different?  I'd vote green rather than any other party, but if there was another party to vote for that could actually get rid of the two big parties who do not appear to be functioning, I would be tempted to vote for change. 

All those traditionally Labour voters who voted tory last time, surely won't be voting tory again, so where do they go? Crawling back to Labour....or has Galloway got something going that will prove unstoppable? 

He and Farage may be a big part of what happens at the next election. 

[Well b back 3,220]

Be careful, with Gove’s new rules you’ll have the pinkun message board shut down.

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

The fact that Farage has lost seven elections/by-elections here should provide the answer, namely no. If UKIP only scraped one seat off 3.8 million votes in the 2015 general election at arguably the height of anti-EU fervour, then there's your likely template.

What I suspect will happen (in English seats at least), will be this:

1. Reform will threaten to run candidates everywhere, then pull back somewhat as the Tories take some of their less "extreme" demands on board, at which point they'll support the Tories by not competing where the Tories have a chance to win. I think this will happen quite late on and provide a rebound where a defeat is nowhere near as bad as predicted.

2. There could be small rises in individual votes for smaller parties from those who are seriously hacked off with the big two, who don't necessarily see LibDems or even Greens as solutions. This is where your relatively hardcore lefts/rights will splinter away and look at/vote for the likes of Galloway and Farage, I think.

3. I think there will be even more tactical voting than usual as people think "just get this lot out" if they're undecided. Obvious problem there is obvious - it's not necessarily agreement with the manifesto of the party they're voting for, but complete dissatisfaction with the ruling party. We know from experience that there's often a bloody big gap between those, with a resulting element of dissatisfaction as a result!

4. Wouldn't rule out seeing more spoiled ballots than usual either.

 

[Well b back 3,220]

Farage won’t run for anyone else as he still harbours ambitions to become Tory Party leader.

[Fen Canary 834]

5 hours ago, TheGunnShow said:

The fact that Farage has lost seven elections/by-elections here should provide the answer, namely no. If UKIP only scraped one seat off 3.8 million votes in the 2015 general election at arguably the height of anti-EU fervour, then there's your likely template.

What I suspect will happen (in English seats at least), will be this:

1. Reform will threaten to run candidates everywhere, then pull back somewhat as the Tories take some of their less "extreme" demands on board, at which point they'll support the Tories by not competing where the Tories have a chance to win. I think this will happen quite late on and provide a rebound where a defeat is nowhere near as bad as predicted.

2. There could be small rises in individual votes for smaller parties from those who are seriously hacked off with the big two, who don't necessarily see LibDems or even Greens as solutions. This is where your relatively hardcore lefts/rights will splinter away and look at/vote for the likes of Galloway and Farage, I think.

3. I think there will be even more tactical voting than usual as people think "just get this lot out" if they're undecided. Obvious problem there is obvious - it's not necessarily agreement with the manifesto of the party they're voting for, but complete dissatisfaction with the ruling party. We know from experience that there's often a bloody big gap between those, with a resulting element of dissatisfaction as a result!

4. Wouldn't rule out seeing more spoiled ballots than usual either.

 

I can’t wait for the day the smaller parties can claim enough votes to force the issue and enact PR. Currently a vote for them is seen as a wasted vote by many, and the current system leaves Parliament completely distorted from what has actually been voted for.

Labour can win less than double the Tories votes but have almost quadruple the seats. Reform can poll higher than the Lib Dems and win no seats but the Lib Dems can win 40. The Greens can poll over half the Lib Dem vote but only get 1/20th of their representation, while polling higher than the SNP but only winning 2 seats vs 18. It’s an absolute shambles.

I would vote the SDP but it’s pointless to do so. In fact in a number of safe seats it’s a waste of time voting at all 

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

What is interesting about this poll is that people are already thinking about tactical voting. The Lib Dems are 2% down on 5 years ago but are projected to get 35 more seats. Tactical voting websites are being heavily shared on social media and that will increase as the election gets nearer. Although Labour and Lib Dems have avoided discussing the issue at a senior level it is being discussed by local party representatives. One of my local Lib Dems has told me that in his opinion things are now so bad that he will do whatever it takes to get rid of the Tories. He has even suggested that we canvass together. 

The general consensus is that the gap will narrow as the election gets nearer and that is based on previous elections. Things may change but this time round I can only see the gap getting wider. 

As for Farage, I don't see him making any concessions to the Tories. If he really does want to lead them this will be his last chance and he would need them to be almost destroyed for it to happen. 

Edited March 15 by dylanisabaddog

[BroadstairsR 2,178]

10 hours ago, TheGunnShow said:

The fact that Farage has lost seven elections/by-elections here should provide the answer, namely no. If UKIP only scraped one seat off 3.8 million votes in the 2015 general election at arguably the height of anti-EU fervour, then there's your llikely template.

Incorrect. At the last EU Parliament elections, UKIP polled 5.25m votes. The pro-EU Lib-Dems polled 3m odd:-

I voted leave as I detest Brussels and it's excesses. A Commision which is not formed by direct public election despite its powers:- 

"The European Commission is led by its President and the 26 Commissioners, one per country. The Commission President is elected for a 5-year term by the European Parliament, following the European elections. The European Council (EU heads of state or government) proposes a presidential candidate to the Parliament."

Make of this carve -up what you wish. There has only been one President of the Commision from the UK, despite us having been the second-highest contributor to the budget.

Furthermore, make of this what you may:-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_institutions_of_the_European_Union.

Wow! The biggest gravy train in the history of "democracy?"

 

AND a Parliament which is not really a Parliament as it cannot initiate legislation, although it negotiates all laws, including the budget, with the Commision and the Council of Ministers in an arrangement known as co-decision. 

Oh, perhaps it is then? (Who is Charles Michel, by the way? Who in the UK had heard of the hapless Angela Von Der Volksawagen, Merkel's pet, though?)

Despite members having to shuffle around between Brussells and Strasbourg, along with their vast entourage of secretaries and advisors, all at taxpayers expense. Or is it Luxembourg?

"Plenary sessions of the EP take place in Strasbourg every month (except in August) for four days (from Monday to Thursday), while extraordinary plenary sessions take place in Brussels. The EP's administrative offices sit in Luxembourg."

Eh? Confused so am I? Soap?

Furthermore, I disfavour Monnetism, federalisation, a European army, the Euro etc, etc. Perhaps you do not?

John Major is reported to have said following Maastricht that "If the British public were aware of what I had signed up to, they would never vote my party into office again."

Nuff said.

As the Sky hasn't fallen in, I do not regret my vote and if we were ever to rejoin (remember Jo Swinson?) then our contribution would be sky-high (Campbell was sent away with his tail between his legs is the template here) and we would probably have to adopt the Euro amongst other things. It seems that the voters in the major contributing EU countries feel the same with a shift to the right, Holland etc. and the fact that the next European Parliament seems likely hold a majority of anti-EU members. Extremes lead to extremes.

Nuff said.

True, the whole transition has been botched by this useless Conservative Government, by Johnson's total incompetence and that it has been a monumental disaster, but there will be no going back. 

I haven't even mentioned the CAP (when he had got this piece of legislation through, De Gaulle finally said, "Oui." The influence of the US in European affairs should the UK be admitted, being a smokescreen.)

Or the CFP, which virtually destroyed our fishing industry.

Or the fact that there are approaching one million people now on the generous pension payroll of the EU. 

Edited March 15 by BroadstairsR

[Fen Canary 834]

1 hour ago, dylanisabaddog said:

What is interesting about this poll is that people are already thinking about tactical voting. The Lib Dems are 2% down on 5 years ago but are projected to get 35 more seats. Tactical voting websites are being heavily shared on social media and that will increase as the election gets nearer. Although Labour and Lib Dems have avoided discussing the issue at a senior level it is being discussed by local party representatives. One of my local Lib Dems has told me that in his opinion things are now so bad that he will do whatever it takes to get rid of the Tories. He has even suggested that we canvass together. 

The general consensus is that the gap will narrow as the election gets nearer and that is based on previous elections. Things may change but this time round I can only see the gap getting wider. 

As for Farage, I don't see him making any concessions to the Tories. If he really does want to lead them this will be his last chance and he would need them to be almost destroyed for it to happen. 

I’m not sure tactical voting is really necessary to be honest, the Tories aren’t going to be getting anywhere near this time 

[sonyc 5,529]

6 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

I’m not sure tactical voting is really necessary to be honest, the Tories aren’t going to be getting anywhere near this time 

I believe you are correct. If there's one thing that is uniting the country (it seems) it is a deep dislike of the current lot. 

We require a very long term view of every problem and then some grounded, serious management to begin to tackle it. On funding local services for starters (to give a chance for local government to plan finances for starters, rather than always looking where to cut services), on the NHS (hospital capital projects and revenue support for increasing staff and training them), to tackle uncontrolled immigration (our infrastructure simply cannot cope), on skills acquisition programmes. The latter is linked to many life outcomes....Anyway, the list is long. There are so many priorities. 

It would be nice not to have a lot of fanfare and less of the kind of talk we've witnessed on recent years (Johnson, Truss). 

[Well b back 3,220]

7 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

I’m not sure tactical voting is really necessary to be honest, the Tories aren’t going to be getting anywhere near this time 

As a normal Tory voter, my vote will be classed as tactical, in an area with a reasonable size Tory majority, my vote will be an anti Tory vote, so it would go to whom will get Morden out. After that I don’t know, any party could win my vote.

Our next door neighbours Litchfield with Michael Fabricant will remain Tory as although he dissed the nurses, nhs, military ( big barracks there ) and vaccines, he has fought to get HS2 stopped something that has blocked the Litchfield roads for months.

[Fen Canary 834]

4 minutes ago, Well b back said:

As a normal Tory voter, my vote will be classed as tactical, in an area with a reasonable size Tory majority, my vote will be an anti Tory vote, so it would go to whom will get Morden out. After that I don’t know, any party could win my vote.

Our next door neighbours Litchfield with Michael Fabricant will remain Tory as although he dissed the nurses, nhs, military ( big barracks there ) and vaccines, he has fought to get HS2 stopped something that has blocked the Litchfield roads for months.

For the first time in my life I’m genuinely considering not bothering. I can’t stand the Tories and I think Starmer is no more trustworthy than Boris Johnson was, he’s simply not as brazen. Reform are just Thatcherites and the Greens/Lib Dems middle class managerialists who’d outsource everything to quangos. Nothing appeals, and I can’t even think of a least worst option to go for 

[Fen Canary 834]

8 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I believe you are correct. If there's one thing that is uniting the country (it seems) it is a deep dislike of the current lot. 

We require a very long term view of every problem and then some grounded, serious management to begin to tackle it. On funding local services for starters (to give a chance for local government to plan finances for starters, rather than always looking where to cut services), on the NHS (hospital capital projects and revenue support for increasing staff and training them), to tackle uncontrolled immigration (our infrastructure simply cannot cope), on skills acquisition programmes. The latter is linked to many life outcomes....Anyway, the list is long. There are so many priorities. 

It would be nice not to have a lot of fanfare and less of the kind of talk we've witnessed on recent years (Johnson, Truss). 

In my opinion (and from the bits I’ve read) the lack of capacity is the biggest problem with the NHS. A lack of infrastructure spend creates a lack of beds, which in turn slows the whole process and makes the system incredibly expensive and inefficient. Paying surgeons to stand there twiddling their thumbs due to a lack of space to put the patient after the operation is simply madness. It doesn’t matter how many doctors and nurses you employ, if you’ve got no beds you’re simply throwing money away.

We also need to fund apprenticeships snd vocational education much more than we currently do, and let some of the more poorly run universities fall over. We don’t need over 50%of youngsters going to university, especially as 40% now end up working in jobs that don’t require a degree. Many universities seem to have descended into little more than visa factories anyway, offering a backdoor into settling into the UK, and as you say we simply can’t cope with it at current levels.

I can’t see it happening though. Most politicians seem to care little about actually achieving anything, it’s all simply a stepping stone in their career (Clegg). You could barely fit a fag paper between the policies of Labour and the Tories these days, they’ve both been hollowed out since the days of Thatcher then Blair, between them they’ve destroyed the conservatism of the Conservatives and the socialism of Labour 

[BroadstairsR 2,178]

I voted Tory for the first time in my life at the last election due to the views expressed above re: the EU.

Little did I know of the shambles that I had voted for. Everything is creaking, everything.

Never again.

I actually think Reform will do better than expected, they won't get my vote, but they could well pick up a few seats.

[Fen Canary 834]

1 minute ago, BroadstairsR said:

I voted Tory for the first time in my life at the last election due to the views expressed above re: the EU.

Little did I know of the shambles that I had voted for. Everything is creaking, everything.

Never again.

I actually think Reform will do better than expected, they won't get my vote, but they could well pick up a few seats.

I don’t think they’ll win any seats, but they’ll be back up to the levels UKIP were before the EU referendum which implies there’s a consistent right leaning minority who want somebody other than the Tories to vote for

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

5 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

For the first time in my life I’m genuinely considering not bothering. I can’t stand the Tories and I think Starmer is no more trustworthy than Boris Johnson was, he’s simply not as brazen. Reform are just Thatcherites and the Greens/Lib Dems middle class managerialists who’d outsource everything to quangos. Nothing appeals, and I can’t even think of a least worst option to go for 

I'm going to reserve judgement on Starmer until he's in power. He has done an extraordinary job bearing in mind the state of the Labour Party when he started but he has been duplicitous in the process. But it does feel to me that he needs a large majority to keep the lefty loonies at bay. 

At the moment it's estimated that tactical voting will cost them around 35 seats and obviously the Reform vote will cost a few as well. The Observer suggested recently that their target is not to drop below 100 seats. They genuinely fear that Farage will take over but how he could manage that without the ability to win an election is beyond me. 

[cambridgeshire canary 6,742]

George Galloway is a fraudster and liar just like the rest of them. Hell, he sent out two vastly different campaign letters to the people of Rochdale dependent on of they were muslim or white British. Only reason he won was due to the muslim vote and him calling for a ceasefire. Strange how he's been elected and called for one and it's not happened huh?

Nevermind him claming the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the West and Natos fault. And have I mentioned him having previously wanted the communist party of great britian to be an official wing of the Labour party?

Guy's a nutjob who just happens to know what to say to get people to vote for him. Classic promise you all your dreams will come true politician who never delivers anything he says.

 

And all he will ever be known as will be the man who pretended to be a cat on live televison.

Edited March 15 by cambridgeshire canary

[Fen Canary 834]

2 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I'm going to reserve judgement on Starmer until he's in power. He has done an extraordinary job bearing in mind the state of the Labour Party when he started but he has been duplicitous in the process. But it does feel to me that he needs a large majority to keep the lefty loonies at bay. 

At the moment it's estimated that tactical voting will cost them around 35 seats and obviously the Reform vote will cost a few as well. The Observer suggested recently that their target is not to drop below 100 seats. They genuinely fear that Farage will take over but how he could manage that without the ability to win an election is beyond me. 

In fairness to Farage he is a canny operator. He may not have won a seat himself but I can’t remember many people who have got a minor party to over 10% of the vote in Britain and he looks likely to now do it twice with two different parties. He also had the biggest vote share of our last EU election with a party he’d knocked up from scratch. It’s only the FPTP that keeps him out of Parliament, though I’d wager he’d be a more popular campaigner than MP

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

19 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

In my opinion (and from the bits I’ve read) the lack of capacity is the biggest problem with the NHS. A lack of infrastructure spend creates a lack of beds, which in turn slows the whole process and makes the system incredibly expensive and inefficient. Paying surgeons to stand there twiddling their thumbs due to a lack of space to put the patient after the operation is simply madness. It doesn’t matter how many doctors and nurses you employ, if you’ve got no beds you’re simply throwing money away.

 

I've no idea if this reflects the current situation in the NHS but a 70 year old friend had a small heart attack a week ago which blood TESTS and ECG suggest will be sorted with a stent which takes less than 30 mins. He can't have the procedure until they have a space on the cardiac ward and 6 days on he's still on a general ward waiting for a space. 

The nurse told him that they feel like the little boy with his finger in the hole in a dam. Perhaps it's poor organisation but it seems more likely that it's just lack of beds and specialists. Apparently they keep moving to Canada, New Zealand and Australia. 

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

20 minutes ago, BroadstairsR said:

I voted Tory for the first time in my life at the last election due to the views expressed above re: the EU.

Little did I know of the shambles that I had voted for. Everything is creaking, everything.

Never again.

I actually think Reform will do better than expected, they won't get my vote, but they could well pick up a few seats.

That wins the most honest post of the year award. 

[BroadstairsR 2,178]

44 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I've no idea if this reflects the current situation in the NHS but a 70 year old friend had a small heart attack a week ago which blood TESTS and ECG suggest will be sorted with a stent which takes less than 30 mins. He can't have the procedure until they have a space on the cardiac ward and 6 days on he's still on a general ward waiting for a space. 

The nurse told him that they feel like the little boy with his finger in the hole in a dam. Perhaps it's poor organisation but it seems more likely that it's just lack of beds and specialists. Apparently they keep moving to Canada, New Zealand and Australia. 

I actually took out a private health care plan some twenty odd years ago, not because I am particularly wealthy or was against the NHS, but because of advice I received from an elderly relative who was wealthy.

I was reluctant at first, a principled thing in a way as I have worked for the NHS for a lot of my life and my GP has always served me well, despite his surgery currently being surrounded by a brick wall with an armed guard protecting it. Besides, I had had hospitalisation as a youngster, which my parents always used to say saved my life.

The advice re: health insurance was possibly the best I have had in my life, as I would be frightened stiff should any serious health issue befall me as I age.

The model, a shining example to the world when it was first created, is now very much out of date and cannot cope. Apart from being monstrously wasteful it is, in many ways, not fit for purpose, despite being mostly excellent. 

Believe me, there are much worse, it just cannot cope with demand.

There needs to be a serious re-think of the whole institution, with note taken of those successful systems throughout the world. 

Reform, a dirty word apparently, is much needed.

 

 

Edited March 15 by BroadstairsR

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

2 minutes ago, BroadstairsR said:

I actually took out a private health care plan some twenty odd years ago, not because I am particularly wealthy or was against the NHS, but because of advice I received from an elderly relative.

I was reluctant at first, a principled thing in a way as I have worked for the NHS for a lot of my life and my GP has always served me well, despite his surgery currently being surrounded by a brick wall with an armed guard protecting it. Besides, I had had hospitalisation as a youngster, which my parents always used to say saved my life.

The advice re: health insurance was possibly the best I have had in my life, as I would be frightened stiff should any serious health issue befall me as I age.

The model, a shining example to the world when it was first created, is now very much out of date and cannot cope. Apart from being monstrously wasteful it is, in many ways, not fit for purpose, despite being mostly excellent. 

Believe me, there are much worse, it just cannot cope with demand.

There needs to be a serious re-think of the whole institution, with note taken of those successful systems throughout the world. 

Reform, a dirty word apparently, is much needed.

 

 

Sadly I think you're right. If our system worked it would have been copied elsewhere. It hasn't. 

I have friends in France and Italy who think the systems there are better than ours. 

We're quite right to be proud of the NHS but it definitely needs reform. The issue is an ageing population. A consultant at the N&N who lives close to me told me that we need to do something urgently about obesity and diabetes. For some reason we are the fattest country in Europe and we eat far too much processed food. Perhaps Starmer should try to deal with it in the same way Blair had such a positive effect on the smoking problem. Unfortunately, people don't like being told they're fat slobs. 

[BroadstairsR 2,178]

2 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Sadly I think you're right. If our system worked it would have been copied elsewhere. It hasn't. 

I have friends in France and Italy who think the systems there are better than ours. 

We're quite right to be proud of the NHS but it definitely needs reform. The issue is an ageing population. A consultant at the N&N who lives close to me told me that we need to do something urgently about obesity and diabetes. For some reason we are the fattest country in Europe and we eat far too much processed food. Perhaps Starmer should try to deal with it in the same way Blair had such a positive effect on the smoking problem. Unfortunately, people don't like being told they're fat slobs. 

Those countries and others have an ageing population as well, especially Japan, but they seem to have better healthcare nowadays. The obesity thing is a fact and for all to witness, and has been for some time. It is a major factor in so many diseases, including cancer, heart problems, strokes and of course diabetes.

[BroadstairsR 2,178]

1 hour ago, Fen Canary said:

I don’t think they’ll win any seats, but they’ll be back up to the levels UKIP were before the EU referendum which implies there’s a consistent right leaning minority who want somebody other than the Tories to vote for

Apparently, the street noise in the south-eastern town where I now live is in favour of Reform and is reminiscent of that in favour of leave before the referendum, and we know how that turned out, despite the polls.

[Fen Canary 834]

1 minute ago, BroadstairsR said:

Apparently, the street noise in the south-eastern town where I now live is in favour of Reform and is reminiscent of that in favour of leave before the referendum, and we know how that turned out, despite the polls.

As I say they lean too far to the right financially for me to vote for, but I also hope they do well simply to shake it up. The more smaller parties from across the spectrum that can get a foothold the better. I’d like to see the Greens get up near double digits as well even though again I’d never vote for them myself 

[dylanisabaddog 4,931]

59 minutes ago, BroadstairsR said:

Apparently, the street noise in the south-eastern town where I now live is in favour of Reform and is reminiscent of that in favour of leave before the referendum, and we know how that turned out, despite the polls.

I heard a man on the radio say that Reform stood for something that everyone wants. He was very insistent about it and refused to listen to anyone suggesting otherwise. He simply couldn't believe that anyone could disagree with him. They seem very noisy people to me but they won't get any seats at the election. Farage has stood 7 times and lost every time. If he can't do it none of them can. 

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

3 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

I don’t think they’ll win any seats, but they’ll be back up to the levels UKIP were before the EU referendum which implies there’s a consistent right leaning minority who want somebody other than the Tories to vote for

Yep, I think Reform might get a lot of second places, but no or very few seats.

This is the thing with FPTP that really gets missed. Third parties tend to hurt the party they are ideologically that little bit closer to.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

I know everybody thinks Reform attracts those on the right - but in all honesty it's siren call is simply anti-immigrant or anybody 'other'. Its economic plans (think shrink if not remove the welfare state, deregulate, Thatcher on steroids) is generally not understood. Hence a significant number of its lazy 'supporters' are equally from the left - 30p Lee is actually quite a good example.

Brexit only occurred because like Galloway it was sold in two different ways to two mutually opposing groups or ideologies.

The ERG 'free marketers' wanted  Brexit to simply allow us to become more dynamic and like the US. Immigration was just the bait. Truss in her short tenure to make Brexit a success wanted more immigration - not protectionism (laugh at the farmers vs her Oz and NZ trade deals)! You could add in the fishermen too.

The Protectionists (generally what's still called the 'working class') wanted Brexit to stop competition from abroad be that in goods or people.

No wonder Brexit is a mess. It's inherently flawed  - the worst of all worlds. Either get on turning us into a version of the USA (privatise the NHS, deregulate, rip up the welfare state or only a safety net at a much lower level) or stick with the European welfare model but rejoin the SM/CU. There isn't a stable other way. 

Edited March 15 by Yellow Fever

[BroadstairsR 2,178]

There's no answer to that décalage of facts, except a wry smile.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

3 hours ago, BroadstairsR said:

There's no answer to that décalage of facts, except a wry smile.

Isn't it pretty much what Fen states anyway? He even uses the word 'protectionism' and Reform "lean too far to the right financially".

Unfortunately we don't rule the world anymore or 'empire' and other countries (like India) won't dance to our tune.

Reform are 'spoilers' and 'protest' votes not much more. Same as Galloway in fact two sides of the same reactionary coin.  

[Fen Canary 834]

7 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I heard a man on the radio say that Reform stood for something that everyone wants. He was very insistent about it and refused to listen to anyone suggesting otherwise. He simply couldn't believe that anyone could disagree with him. They seem very noisy people to me but they won't get any seats at the election. Farage has stood 7 times and lost every time. If he can't do it none of them can. 

He didn’t need to win a seat in order for UKIP to achieve its goal though. The threat of splitting the vote and costing the Tories their future majority was enough to put pressure on Cameron to call the referendum in an attempt to put the matter to bed