Come on Sarah

[Well b back 3,282]

BMA comments - sounds a bit like a letter we were reporting on 2 months ago lol.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54882091

[Well b back 3,282]

Chinese trial paused, but probably more like the other pauses. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-54883383

[Well b back 3,282]

TJ one for you. A couple of reports I have seen suggest the likes of Oxford should look at their current data early as their reaction data seems exactly the same as Pfizer.

[Herman 9,837]

3 hours ago, Van wink said:

I wonder if there will be a combo special for the over 80’s?

You get a new lease of life and somewhere to hang your coat. 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

TJ one for you. A couple of reports I have seen suggest the likes of Oxford should look at their current data early as their reaction data seems exactly the same as Pfizer.

not seen any of the reports. I'd say they should faithfully stick with their own timelines though I suspect we'll here something on that one soon.

Oxford is going to be particularly important for developing countries that don't have the capability to develop -80 infrastructure.

If anything, I'd say this takes the pressure off them a little since Pfizer have already tested the water.

[It's Character Forming 1,167]

Yes its interesting that Pfizer have reported this at an interim stage, clearly a sensible thing to do given how successful the results are.  But throughout it seems to me Pfizer have always accentuated the positive on the timeline whereas Oxford have been more cautious about potential timeframes etc.  I suspect the Oxford vaccine is actually still neck and neck with Pfizer and we will see an initial roll-out of both during December.

 

All that we're hearing now ties in completely with the previous posts on this thread.

 

I can't thank posters like @Well b back and @Tetteys Jig enough, this thread is the best source for Covid vaccine updates you can find anywhere on t'internet IMO.

[Well b back 3,282]

21 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Yes its interesting that Pfizer have reported this at an interim stage, clearly a sensible thing to do given how successful the results are.  But throughout it seems to me Pfizer have always accentuated the positive on the timeline whereas Oxford have been more cautious about potential timeframes etc.  I suspect the Oxford vaccine is actually still neck and neck with Pfizer and we will see an initial roll-out of both during December.

 

All that we're hearing now ties in completely with the previous posts on this thread.

 

I can't thank posters like @Well b back and @Tetteys Jig enough, this thread is the best source for Covid vaccine updates you can find anywhere on t'internet IMO.

Thanks for that, I think we have been a good combination, I have been the excited salesman TJ has added to the scientific fact, that corrects me when I move from fantasy or hope, back to reality. 
Don’t know if people were listening to radio 5 this morning on their phone in. The fight has begun for the vaccine, there were teachers saying they should be first in the quee, there were people arguing they should be higher in the quee. It is also noticeable that they had quite a bit on where social media has to draw a line. They gave some very good examples of where social media must react, ie the vaccine is a chip that gives you over to the government is dangerous misinformation, but people will believe it. 

[SteveN8458 64]

3 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

I can't thank posters like @Well b back and @Tetteys Jig enough, this thread is the best source for Covid vaccine updates you can find anywhere on t'internet IMO.

^^^^this

[Well b back 3,282]

Hancocks first mention of the Mink. Let’s hope he takes on the likes of China as well regards, snakes, bats and any other wild animals. Hopefully lessons are finally being learnt. Anyone know what he said earlier ? 
 

Health secretary says international community should 'address the question of mink farming'

Matt Hancock has suggested the international community should look again at mink farming, alluding to a ban on the industry after a new coronavirus strain spread to humans from mink in Denmark.

Mr Hancock had earlier warned of "grave" consequences if the variant became widespread, although he said the chances of that were low. 

Britain has introduced a quarantine policy for arrivals from Denmark.

He told parliament: "There is an international case on public health grounds for addressing this question of mink farming which we banned in the UK two decades ago. 

"It was due to come to an end in Europe in 2023, anyway.

"Clearly on global public health grounds, there is a case to do everything we can to stop the re-transmission of this virus into an animal population and then back again, which can lead to these sorts of mutations that we've seen."

[Well b back 3,282]

7 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

not seen any of the reports. I'd say they should faithfully stick with their own timelines though I suspect we'll here something on that one soon.

Oxford is going to be particularly important for developing countries that don't have the capability to develop -80 infrastructure.

If anything, I'd say this takes the pressure off them a little since Pfizer have already tested the water.

BBC said this time ‘ Oxford results expected in next few weeks ‘, I think that is just a clever comment few weeks could mean next week or 16 weeks. That guy ( is it Fergus ) seems to have plenty of good info and thinks their results are positive so far. Let’s hope Oxford is as good.

[Well b back 3,282]

First government data briefing soon

We're expecting to hear an update from England's deputy chief medical officer Professor Jonathan Van-Tam shortly.

It's expected to cover the approval of a vaccine and its roll-out. 

Prof Van-Tam will be joined at Downing Street by June Raine, chief executive of the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), and Wei Shen Lim, chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation.

This will be the first of what will be weekly "data briefings" from experts every Wednesday until the end of England's lockdown.

It comes after we found out the first effective coronavirus vaccine can prevent more than 90% of people from getting Covid-19, according to preliminary analysis.

Here's what we know about the vaccine so far.

[Well b back 3,282]

Still not to much on the mink. This is from The New York Times, which if correct seems better than the initial bits of news we were given.

Denmark’s plan to kill 17 million farmed mink

Denmark’s mink cull is on hold because of a question about the government’s legal authority to order it. But why did it seek to do so in the first place? James Gorman, a science writer at large for The Times, explains what you need to know, excerpted here.

Can mink infect people with the coronavirus?

Yes. In Denmark, mink have contracted the virus and spread it to people. The same happened in the Netherlands this year. They are the only animal known to do so.

Does the virus mutate in mink?

Yes. In more than 200 people, Danish authorities have documented several variants of the virus that contain mutations originating in mink. The virus also mutates in people. But there is no evidence that any of the mutations that originated in mink make the coronavirus more transmissible in humans or make humans sicker.

A mass grave being prepared for mink in a military area near Holstebro, Denmark, on Monday.  Morten Stricker/Ritzau Scanpix, via Associated Press

Why did Denmark decide to kill all of its farmed mink?

Danish health authorities were concerned that one set of mutations could make a potential coronavirus vaccine less effective, after the possibility was raised in preliminary tests. The World Health Organization and independent experts said there was no evidence so far that it would diminish the value of vaccines currently in development.

Did Denmark overreact?

Scientists say that there are reasons beyond this particular mutated virus for Denmark to act.

The crowded conditions of mink farms could put evolutionary pressures on the virus different from those in the human population. The virus could also jump to other animals from mink. These are all worrisome possibilities, particularly in the midst of a resurgence of the virus in the human population.

[sonyc 5,541]

25 minutes ago, Well b back said:

First government data briefing soon

We're expecting to hear an update from England's deputy chief medical officer Professor Jonathan Van-Tam shortly.

It's expected to cover the approval of a vaccine and its roll-out. 

Prof Van-Tam will be joined at Downing Street by June Raine, chief executive of the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), and Wei Shen Lim, chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation.

This will be the first of what will be weekly "data briefings" from experts every Wednesday until the end of England's lockdown.

It comes after we found out the first effective coronavirus vaccine can prevent more than 90% of people from getting Covid-19, according to preliminary analysis.

Here's what we know about the vaccine so far.

Interesting to hear that the roll out 'sounds' like it will be far more nuanced than has been reported so far with different vaccines being targeted at different groups?

[Tetteys Jig 830]

https://phastar.com/blog/250-statisticians-view-on-pfizer-covid19-vaccine-data

If anyone is interested where 90% likely came from...

[sonyc 5,541]

And further to the above, roll out may be supported by other professions (other than  GPs and armed forces potentially). Quick note here about dentists' potential involvement!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/covid-coronavirus-vaccine-news-pfizer-test-uk-lockdown-cases/

[sonyc 5,541]

1 minute ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://phastar.com/blog/250-statisticians-view-on-pfizer-covid19-vaccine-data

If anyone is interested where 90% likely came from...

Have you seen any  information on age cohorts TJ? I've read the widely reported articles from younger people and the flu type effects which were thankfully very short-lived

[Well b back 3,282]

6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Interesting to hear that the roll out 'sounds' like it will be far more nuanced than has been reported so far with different vaccines being targeted at different groups?

Morning Sonyc

TJ will tell me to slow down, but I reckon they know Oxford is doing as well, why keep mentioning things they have no idea about. The interim Oxford results if I remember said Oxford were seeing the same results in older people, and there has been 1 or 2 hints that Pfizer hadn’t hit the older age groups until recently as their phase 3 only started July.

It would be a god send if Oxford have the same results as we have a lot more Oxford doses ready to go, so if nothing else will get well down that list.

[sonyc 5,541]

4 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Morning Sonyc

TJ will tell me to slow down, but I reckon they know Oxford is doing as well, why keep mentioning things they have no idea about. The interim Oxford results if I remember said Oxford were seeing the same results in older people, and there has been 1 or 2 hints that Pfizer hadn’t hit the older age groups until recently as their phase 3 only started July.

It would be a god send if Oxford have the same results as we have a lot more Oxford doses ready to go, so if nothing else will get well down that list.

Thanks Well b back. I reckon Oxford won't be far away either. It was a very brief comment made by the bloke to the left of VT that for me alluded to something afoot (along the lines of "we will probably look at roll out in specific age groups in different ways"). It was a coded message but he wanted to make it. Time ran out for more questions but it does seem ominous - in a positive sense.

[Barbe bleu 833]

11 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://phastar.com/blog/250-statisticians-view-on-pfizer-covid19-vaccine-data

If anyone is interested where 90% likely came from...

I did wonder what this meant.   In layman's terms Everyman Joe is 10 times more likely to get it if he has not been vaccinated than if he has, i think

It doesn't seem to define 'get it' (any trace, symptomatic etc) but its good enough for me.

[Well b back 3,282]

10 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://phastar.com/blog/250-statisticians-view-on-pfizer-covid19-vaccine-data

If anyone is interested where 90% likely came from...

Thanks for that TJ.

Would you read anything into Van Tam bringing up age a lot, would you think he knows something or he is just making those comments as he knows nothing ?
He seems fairly confident Oxford will work.

[Well b back 3,282]

Just now, Barbe bleu said:

I did wonder what this meant.   In layman's terms Everyman Joe is 10 times more likely to get it if he has not been vaccinated than if he has, i think

It doesn't seem to define 'get it' (any trace, symptomatic etc) but its good enough for me.

TJ will correct me scientifically I guess, but I am somebody that has had the flu jab for a number of years. I used to get really bad, what I considered colds. From the descriptions people put I don’t think I had flu but they were much worse than a cold. Since I have had the flu jab, I wake up every now and then and feel like I used to as described, however by lunchtime it’s as though my body has fought it off and I now get maybe once a year what I would describe as a mild cold. 
Did you ever see the Oxford monkey experiment on here BB ? They caught it but it didn’t go to any of their lungs, but 2 injections seems to have changed that outlook. Without the cooperation from that trial many would still I guess have been trying with one dose.

We have got used to second guessing comments to get ahead of the game, and his comments about other vaccines are very promising. 

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

I did wonder what this meant.   In layman's terms Everyman Joe is 10 times more likely to get it if he has not been vaccinated than if he has, i think

It doesn't seem to define 'get it' (any trace, symptomatic etc) but its good enough for me.

I think I'll wait for the final reports to have a proper read about cohorts etc. but that is essentially it in layman's terms.

We don't have details on how bad the patients "got it" or how infectious they are but this is as strong as we can have hoped for evidence that it will significantly work.

The transmissions effect will only really become clear on mass immunisation really, at which point we can decide whether we go for a proper "Covid Zero" strategy or just look to stop future waves of hospitalisations. If it stops transmissions significantly enough then we will have a fairly obvious way to herd immunity the proper way without the need to gamble with killing/harming the vulnerable.

I still haven't necessarily written off "natural herd immunity" as a concept but its a complete gamble as to what sort of immunity we get once infected and indeed what preexisting immunity there is in the population and sadly its not a computer game where we can reload the save if it goes **** up.

Considering how much it still spreads even with us all locked up, I'd suggest we're a long way off that and we can't get people to realistically sheild for years on end. I do keep an eye on news from Manaus and South Africa in particular though as far as this is concerned.

One of the problems they are finding in Manaus is that the virus is now spreading to the wealthier people that largely avoided wave 1 so it shows how unhomogeneous the population is. Yes there may be some level of herd immunity amongst certain sections of their population but it then just finds a new group of susceptible people to target. A vaccine will put this control back in our hands

Just waiting (im)patiently for the Oxford/AZ results now as having both available would make a massive difference...

[Well b back 3,282]

29 minutes ago, sonyc said:

And further to the above, roll out may be supported by other professions (other than  GPs and armed forces potentially). Quick note here about dentists' potential involvement!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/covid-coronavirus-vaccine-news-pfizer-test-uk-lockdown-cases/

TJ May correct me but because of the logistics that Pfizer needs to be kept at such a low temperature my understanding is there will be hubs, ie if you have 5 doctors in an area, one will be set up as a vaccine hub, the others will take their everyday patients, but I assume that’s what he will tell us later.

[Well b back 3,282]

6 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

I think I'll wait for the final reports to have a proper read about cohorts etc. but that is essentially it in layman's terms.

We don't have details on how bad the patients "got it" or how infectious they are but this is as strong as we can have hoped for evidence that it will significantly work.

The transmissions effect will only really become clear on mass immunisation really, at which point we can decide whether we go for a proper "Covid Zero" strategy or just look to stop future waves of hospitalisations. If it stops transmissions significantly enough then we will have a fairly obvious way to herd immunity the proper way without the need to gamble with killing/harming the vulnerable.

I still haven't necessarily written off "natural herd immunity" as a concept but its a complete gamble as to what sort of immunity we get once infected and indeed what preexisting immunity there is in the population and sadly its not a computer game where we can reload the save if it goes **** up.

Considering how much it still spreads even with us all locked up, I'd suggest we're a long way off that and we can't get people to realistically sheild for years on end. I do keep an eye on news from Manaus and South Africa in particular though as far as this is concerned.

One of the problems they are finding in Manaus is that the virus is now spreading to the wealthier people that largely avoided wave 1 so it shows how unhomogeneous the population is. Yes there may be some level of herd immunity amongst certain sections of their population but it then just finds a new group of susceptible people to target. A vaccine will put this control back in our hands

Just waiting (im)patiently for the Oxford/AZ results now as having both available would make a massive difference...

Yes

Come On Sarah what are you playing at lol

[Tetteys Jig 830]

21 minutes ago, Well b back said:

TJ May correct me but because of the logistics that Pfizer needs to be kept at such a low temperature my understanding is there will be hubs, ie if you have 5 doctors in an area, one will be set up as a vaccine hub, the others will take their everyday patients, but I assume that’s what he will tell us later.

Not sure what their logistics plans will be. I know it was the first thing my mate pointed out when discussing the great news the other day though. GP surgeries clearly don't generally have -80 storage but id imagine there will be a set protocol for transfer from -80 to patient use.

Would imagine that hubs would negate the problems there so that a localised stock could be easily accessible. Not sure how long it can stay stored at -80 though as this will have some bearing on how it'll work. Its a cold chain supply question though.

We have plenty of -80 freezers at work and i know what a nightmare it can be for the lab services coordinators keeping them in spec. Things like people overfilling them or not shutting them properly can very quickly filter through to deviations if not kept on top of. I just hope our government leave it to the people that know what they're doing. This really isn't something they can just "let their mates do".

We should be alright for this relatively small first rollout but next year could be interesting to say the least!

[Well b back 3,282]

6 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Not sure what their logistics plans will be. I know it was the first thing my mate pointed out when discussing the great news the other day though. GP surgeries clearly don't generally have -80 storage but id imagine there will be a set protocol for transfer from -80 to patient use.

Would imagine that hubs would negate the problems there so that a localised stock could be easily accessible. Not sure how long it can stay stored at -80 though as this will have some bearing on how it'll work. Its a cold chain supply question though.

We have plenty of -80 freezers at work and i know what a nightmare it can be for the lab services coordinators keeping them in spec. Things like people overfilling them or not shutting them properly can very quickly filter through to deviations if not kept on top of. I just hope our government leave it to the people that know what they're doing. This really isn't something they can just "let their mates do".

We should be alright for this relatively small first rollout but next year could be interesting to say the least!

Yes if it’s only Pfizer before next year that’s very limited people, so themselves, care homes will just about use all that first allocation. They will have a couple of months to get it right even if Oxford are ready. 

[Well b back 3,282]

I will fight him for first in the quee lol, but on a serious point wise words from him, and conversations we should all be having with elderly relatives, parents and friends

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-54903298

 

[Well b back 3,282]

Bit more on initial roll outs

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54902909

[Well b back 3,282]

Not a huge amount we didn’t know, but our friends ( or enemies ) the mink get a mention and hopefully this lady can be believed as she does not seem to concerned.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51176409

 

[Well b back 3,282]

Let’s hope Russia did pinch Oxford vaccine as they are claiming 92% as well, I appreciate not substantiated yet before you shout at me lol.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54905330