The Positive Brexit Thread

[horsefly 4,310]

1 minute ago, Fen Canary said:

I’ve heard it all now! Horsefly who has spent the last however many years labelling anybody who disagrees with him as racist, is now offended that somebody points out that his opinions on a two tier immigration policy are largely based on racism! You think a low skilled European is more deserving of living in the UK than a highly skilled one from elsewhere, simply because they’d be “more like us’” How a Slav or somebody from around the Mediterranean is more like us than an Aussie, Kiwi, Canadian or Indian however I’ve no idea.

However you’d no doubt castigate a right winger who questions whether it’s sensible to import lots of people from conservative Muslim countries due to their rather outdated views on equality am I right?

Going back to your other points, most people didn’t want a total ban on immigration, if you’d actually spoken to people who voted to leave rather than try and put words in their mouth you’d understand this. Most wanted to copy the Australian points based system whereby you have to prove you have a useful skill and won’t undercut the local workforce. 

2&3 Yes many people do want illegal immigration stopped, which isn’t an extreme opinion to hold. Opposition to illegal immigration is a major reason many populist parties are becoming a much more powerful force throughout the EU, some of which are openly racist which is something thankfully we don’t see in Britain. The bulk of the EU is drifting right while we look to be pivoting back to Labour.

4 I’ve no idea how many extra would be needed, and unless you work in customs neither do you so we’ll leave that one there

Oh dear! Yet again you don't understand simple English. I never said anything remotely like you are claiming. I responded to your silly claim that Brexit was not responsible for a whole range of issues now confronting the country. I did NOT call for a two tier immigration system, I merely pointed out that Brexit has resulted in not a lessening of immigration but a change in the pattern of immigration. Are you really so stupid that you want to deny it was easier for Europeans to fit into the UK way of life than it is for people arriving from places that are culturally very different? personally I have no problem with that, but I'm not stupid enough to think that it hasn't raised issues that are directly a consequence of Brexit. It is NOT racist to point out that obvious truth, ffs. Now perhaps you can stop lying about what I said and debate honestly..

 

[Fen Canary 861]

8 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Oh dear! Yet again you don't understand simple English. I never said anything remotely like you are claiming. I responded to your silly claim that Brexit was not responsible for a whole range of issues now confronting the country. I did NOT call for a two tier immigration system, I merely pointed out that Brexit has resulted in not a lessening of immigration but a change in the pattern of immigration. Are you really so stupid that you want to deny it was easier for Europeans to fit into the UK way of life than it is for people arriving from places that are culturally very different? personally I have no problem with that, but I'm not stupid enough to think that it hasn't raised issues that are directly a consequence of Brexit. It is NOT racist to point out that obvious truth, ffs. Now perhaps you can stop lying about what I said and debate honestly..

 

It’s always easy to see when you’re losing an argument as you start to wheel out the personal insults. Personally I’m above this type of petty bickering so I’ll leave you to it. I’m happy to debate with adults but your childish rhetoric does become rather tiresome 

[horsefly 4,310]

12 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

It’s always easy to see when you’re losing an argument as you start to wheel out the personal insults. Personally I’m above this type of petty bickering so I’ll leave you to it. I’m happy to debate with adults but your childish rhetoric does become rather tiresome 

Hahahaha! says the man who just accused me of racism. This, of course, is your well rehearsed excuse for not addressing points made that you can't answer. Sadly for you it doesn't wash.

[sonyc 5,541]

22 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

My point is we couldn’t do that while a member. Those EU citizens who immigrated from the last bloc of countries to join earned 25% less than the national average, and Britain was powerless to prevent this happening while we were a member.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8069/
 

Im the first to admit our immigration system is a shambles, but to me that’s the fault or the Tories rather than Brexit. There’s no reason we should have lost EU nationals. The ones already here were allowed to stay, and skilled ones can still obtain work visas and/or residency 

Do you know, I don't disagree about uncontrolled immigration nor your comment about Tory policy being the reason. I think Brexit played a role but it was the chaos of previous administrations that is significant. As for the current Stop The Boats....will just not comment on that.

I often think of the 'cheap labour' we were/ are happy to employ doesn't help. We ought to have a proper labour policy, coupled with an industrial strategy. Both of which are attuned to forecast growth areas and focus then on the education system and skills acquisition needed.

But we don't have a long term view. All too short termist. It reminds me of the 1940s to the 1960s when Yorkshire businessmen wanted to extract every last penny from the woollen mills. They didn't invest, even selling old looms and mill equipment to the far east (and India etc) along with selling how to use it. The whole industry folded and regions lost their raison-d'être. Clearly the market had changed. Labour prices were cheaper abroad. A story as old as time. Nothing much has changed. We still want cheap labour but the societal and regional cost is huge. That's why I've posted about Patrick Grant's factory. An outlier.

I voted to stay in the union but immigration wasn't a factor at all. The capitalist system is a  far bigger factor. Clearly I felt we were better having a close relationship to Europe for our labour. That said, I was involved in many cross-European employment initiatives at a policy and practical level. I found rhe kind of thinking I was exposed to extremely thoughtful, even radical, especially learning about how different countries work out integration and employment policy.

There is SO much we could do. Could have done. So much potential to be great in the UK with a long term plan. .....But.... we decided to campaign on leaving the EU!  It was a hollow campaign as we now know but then it was built on so many promises. Those promises turned out to be lies and were driven by personal political agendas. It's not only remainers but Brexiters that have been lied to as well. No wonder it's a busted flush and a huge injustice. 

 

[Fen Canary 861]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Do you know, I don't disagree about uncontrolled immigration nor your comment about Tory policy being the reason. I think Brexit played a role but it was the chaos of previous administrations that is significant. As for the current Stop The Boats....will just not comment on that.

I often think of the 'cheap labour' we were/ are happy to employ doesn't help. We ought to have a proper labour policy, coupled with an industrial strategy. Both of which are attuned to forecast growth areas and focus then on the education system and skills acquisition needed.

But we don't have a long term view. All too short termist. It reminds me of the 1940s to the 1960s when Yorkshire businessmen wanted to extract every last penny from the woollen mills. They didn't invest, even selling old looms and mill equipment to the far east (and India etc) along with selling how to use it. The whole industry folded and regions lost their raison-d'être. Clearly the market had changed. Labour prices were cheaper abroad. A story as old as time. Nothing much has changed. We still want cheap labour but the societal and regional cost is huge. That's why I've posted about Patrick Grant's factory. An outlier.

I voted to stay in the union but immigration wasn't a factor at all. The capitalist system is a  far bigger factor. Clearly I felt we were better having a close relationship to Europe for our labour. That said, I was involved in many cross-European employment initiatives at a policy and practical level. I found rhe kind of thinking I was exposed to extremely thoughtful, even radical, especially learning about how different countries work out integration and employment policy.

There is SO much we could do. Could have done. So much potential to be great in the UK with a long term plan. .....But.... we decided to campaign on leaving the EU!  It was a hollow campaign as we now know but then it was built on so many promises. Those promises turned out to be lies and were driven by personal political agendas. It's not only remainers but Brexiters that have been lied to as well. No wonder it's a busted flush and a huge injustice. 

 

I don’t disagree, but to me the EU has to take some responsibility for the decision to leave. They seem so wedded to the neoliberal way of thinking that free flow of labour and capital is always a good thing they believed they could completely ignore the concerns of those who don’t benefit or even lose out from it.

Some flexibility of allowing countries to impose a few basic controls, such as a company having to pay an immigrant at least either the median wage or the going rate for their industry would have gone a long way towards quelling people’s fears, as they wouldn’t have seen their wages being undercut by new arrivals. A tradesman with a mortgage and family isn’t able to work as cheaply as a bunch of lads from Vilnius living 6 people in a 3 bed house, but any complaints about these were simply ignored or laughed off.

It would have also likely led to lower levels of immigration if those unscrupulous employers could no longer simply use people from poorer nations as a source of cheap labour. If they had to pay the going rate they would only import those they genuinely needed.

I also think having a basic grasp of the host countries language is important for integration as well. Having worked on sites where large numbers can’t speak a word of English I’ve seen how it stops them becoming involved in society, they tend to instead live in their own groups away from everybody else which I don’t think is a good way for a society to operate.

To me these are simply basic conditions of how an immigration system should operate, and how many countries organise theirs. When you have gangs of Romanian women selling the Big Issue you know something in ours has gone horribly askew 

[sonyc 5,541]

I think there's a lot of common sense in your response @Fen Canary. Many European countries have struggled with integrating economic migrants. I agree about wage levels too and the undercutting of wages. Many northern towns are hollowed out economically and cheap labour is a factor. I believe. Worse though, is that so many places have lost an identity. The industry has gone and with it working men and women.

It is a complex picture though and we can't just blame Brexit of course. Brexit hasn't helped many SMEs however (in particular) and you'll know how some sectors have been disproportionately affected.

Integration is another really difficult issue. I ought to know having lived within the riots area of Bradford in the 1990s. I don't know the answer to it. Disenfranchisement cuts across so many parts of society - gender, age, race and so on 

Actually it's all a bit sad. Maybe not in Norwich but come up north.....many places are shadows of their former selves. 

I just wish we could get a serious government... one that invests in infrastructure and people and over a long term. It may mean tax increases though. I don't think the free market can ever work and we require intervention. 13/14 years of leaving things to go to ruin has been so damaging hasn't it? Local services, the public realm...and so on.

Yet surely there is value and worth in long term public investment. I was not an HS2 supporter (just couldn't see how the benefits of minutes saved justified the cost. Plus again it was all about London really!). A Liverpool to Hull route would connect a proper northern economic superhighway. But the Tories would never invest up here. Their supporters live in the shires. Opening up markets east and west would provide jobs right across the north. Anyway, I'm going on.

More on topic, surely, even when we were part of the EU there was nothing stopping us as a country making our own way? We were not ceding many rights. Again, another lie in the campaign for me.

It's a shame that folk of all sides couldn't just get together and thrash out ideas for the greater good. Even a Pinkun poster group could come up with better than we have 🙂. And that's an indictment on the current government.

[Fen Canary 861]

51 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I think there's a lot of common sense in your response @Fen Canary. Many European countries have struggled with integrating economic migrants. I agree about wage levels too and the undercutting of wages. Many northern towns are hollowed out economically and cheap labour is a factor. I believe. Worse though, is that so many places have lost an identity. The industry has gone and with it working men and women.

It is a complex picture though and we can't just blame Brexit of course. Brexit hasn't helped many SMEs however (in particular) and you'll know how some sectors have been disproportionately affected.

Integration is another really difficult issue. I ought to know having lived within the riots area of Bradford in the 1990s. I don't know the answer to it. Disenfranchisement cuts across so many parts of society - gender, age, race and so on 

Actually it's all a bit sad. Maybe not in Norwich but come up north.....many places are shadows of their former selves. 

I just wish we could get a serious government... one that invests in infrastructure and people and over a long term. It may mean tax increases though. I don't think the free market can ever work and we require intervention. 13/14 years of leaving things to go to ruin has been so damaging hasn't it? Local services, the public realm...and so on.

Yet surely there is value and worth in long term public investment. I was not an HS2 supporter (just couldn't see how the benefits of minutes saved justified the cost. Plus again it was all about London really!). A Liverpool to Hull route would connect a proper northern economic superhighway. But the Tories would never invest up here. Their supporters live in the shires. Opening up markets east and west would provide jobs right across the north. Anyway, I'm going on.

More on topic, surely, even when we were part of the EU there was nothing stopping us as a country making our own way? We were not ceding many rights. Again, another lie in the campaign for me.

It's a shame that folk of all sides couldn't just get together and thrash out ideas for the greater good. Even a Pinkun poster group could come up with better than we have 🙂. And that's an indictment on the current government.

I don’t think Britain has had a long term vision since before the days of Thatcher. Since then every government we’ve had has seemed to be of the opinion that as long as they stay out of the way the market will fix everything, however in my opinion that’s a load of nonsense. The hands off approach has been a massive dereliction of duty. The state shouldn’t be afraid to step in when the market isn’t working as we’d hoped, housing being a key example.

For all Trumps many, many faults, the one thing I agreed with him on (and seemingly so did Biden as he’s carried it on) was he wasn’t afraid to indulge in a spot of protectionism in regards to American jobs. I can understand his popularity in the rust belt as much like up north they’ve watched their industry move abroad and towns fall into decay, only to be told they’ll have to suck it up, it’s globalisation and there is no other way. It doesn’t matter if your standard of living has nosedived, somebody richer than you is now getting slightly cheaper consumer goods so it’s all for the greater good. I’m not saying the clown ever followed through on his promises but his message gave those living there a glimmer of hope that things may improve, and I think leaving the EU offered many the same thing.

The EU generally I always thought was fairly right wing financially so I found the breakdown of the referendum almost backwards to what I’d expect with the left voting to stay and the right to leave. It made dishing out state aid hard at a national level, and technically we’d now be free to do this again much more easily if we pleased, but again I say this more in hope than expectation of it ever actually happening.

I see very little difference between Starmers Labour and the Tories to be honest, he’s just maybe less brazen in his approach. Economically it’ll be the same neoliberal approach we’ve been following since the 80’s, with the same blind loyalty to trickle down theory that’s done nothing but cause record inequality.

[Yellow Fever 3,818]

I haven't read all this through but it strikes me as the same arguments or conundrums again and again.

First, the Tory right (and indeed even the centre) believe in 'free trade'. That is the freedom to import and export your goods largely without external barriers. Indeed the UK's wealth was built on that exactly in the 19th century when we were the main global manufacturer - buy in raw material commodity products from the likes of India (cotton) and exporting finished goods (shirts). Free trade works great when you are the top of the pile and write the rules but not so well when you aren't! 

We are now in the 21st century; much of our 19th and 20th century manufacturing industries have passed away - surpassed by those countries on price and quality we once only bought commodities from. Free trade i.e. zero tariffs or barriers on everything from the RoW (i.e. steel, batteries, cars, agriculture and even services) would rapidly make unprofitable much of what is left. I even recall a conversation on here about printing months ago - closure of Jarrolds etc. as the industry moved elsewhere (cheaper). Jobs gone forever.

Clearly we can't compete with our current high social standards, wages, workers rights i.e. the European social contract or model  directly against those much cheaper, less regulated economies. We need protection. That is of course the whole reason for the SM - the wealthiest largest market in the world of like minded peoples. It has external barriers for protection but is 'free trade' within - about 400M people.

Now here's the conundrum. To be outside the SM we are by comparison a small market - 65M people. A small fish in a big pond. Neither can we be an isolationist island -- not big enough. So in order to be successful we will need to be more like our 'new' competitors - deregulation, less workers rights - indeed a US style economy. Oh and lots more unskilled immigration! Thats the 'new' model.

Don't believe me - Isn't that exactly what Truss and the Tory right proposed to make 'Brexit' work - more immigration! 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/25/liz-truss-plans-more-immigration-in-effort-to-fill-vacancies-and-drive-growth#:~:text=Liz Truss is preparing to,UK%2C government sources have confirmed.

Here endeth the lesson.  

Edited January 16 by Yellow Fever

[littleyellowbirdie 2,576]

CPTPP has resulted in a rise in alcohol exports to CPTPP countries.

https://harpers.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/32258/British_alcohol_sales_rise_in_CPTPP_countries.html

[horsefly 4,310]

Brexit has resulted in a massive 79% decline in banking jobs in London. 

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/business-economics/like-a-pin-to-a-balloon-banking-jobs-in-london-down-79-since-brexit-366982/

[horsefly 4,310]

23 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

CPTPP has resulted in a rise in alcohol exports to CPTPP countries.

https://harpers.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/32258/British_alcohol_sales_rise_in_CPTPP_countries.html

Except the CPTPP hasn't resulted in that, because we are not actually members yet. I think you need to look up the difference between "cause" and "correlation" 

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-uk-and-the-comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnershipcptpp

[littleyellowbirdie 2,576]

18 hours ago, horsefly said:

Except the CPTPP hasn't resulted in that, because we are not actually members yet. I think you need to look up the difference between "cause" and "correlation" 

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-uk-and-the-comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnershipcptpp

You see? We're seeing benefits simply from business anticipating it coming into effect!

I remember an episode of Brexit for the perplexed after the transition period where a small company was speaking of their frustrations over trade with the EU, but equally saying they'd compensated with new sales outside the EU. It does raise the question whether a lot of companies have actually been missing opportunities for not looking further afield. Perhaps that's what's going on here.

 

Edited January 18 by littleyellowbirdie

[ron obvious 1,514]

On 14/01/2024 at 22:15, Fen Canary said:

I don’t think Britain has had a long term vision since before the days of Thatcher. Since then every government we’ve had has seemed to be of the opinion that as long as they stay out of the way the market will fix everything, however in my opinion that’s a load of nonsense. The hands off approach has been a massive dereliction of duty. The state shouldn’t be afraid to step in when the market isn’t working as we’d hoped, housing being a key example.

For all Trumps many, many faults, the one thing I agreed with him on (and seemingly so did Biden as he’s carried it on) was he wasn’t afraid to indulge in a spot of protectionism in regards to American jobs. I can understand his popularity in the rust belt as much like up north they’ve watched their industry move abroad and towns fall into decay, only to be told they’ll have to suck it up, it’s globalisation and there is no other way. It doesn’t matter if your standard of living has nosedived, somebody richer than you is now getting slightly cheaper consumer goods so it’s all for the greater good. I’m not saying the clown ever followed through on his promises but his message gave those living there a glimmer of hope that things may improve, and I think leaving the EU offered many the same thing.

The EU generally I always thought was fairly right wing financially so I found the breakdown of the referendum almost backwards to what I’d expect with the left voting to stay and the right to leave. It made dishing out state aid hard at a national level, and technically we’d now be free to do this again much more easily if we pleased, but again I say this more in hope than expectation of it ever actually happening.

I see very little difference between Starmers Labour and the Tories to be honest, he’s just maybe less brazen in his approach. Economically it’ll be the same neoliberal approach we’ve been following since the 80’s, with the same blind loyalty to trickle down theory that’s done nothing but cause record inequality.

One of the prime functions of government I think is to realise when major industries are becoming non-viable & plan a way forward for the communities affected. Just dishing out large amounts of dole money is not a solution, but neither is top-down planning of 'job creation' . It's a tricky problem to solve, but a mixture of business incentives, useful - but not glamorous - infrastructure projects & a decent education (first step: make Katharine Birbalsingh Education Secretary!) is the best way forward I can think of.

Notwithstanding just fixing all the apathy & corruption surrounding Western governments generally. Which is an even bigger problem.

[horsefly 4,310]

55 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

You see? We're seeing benefits simply from business anticipating it coming into effect!

I remember an episode of Brexit for the perplexed after the transition period where a small company was speaking of their frustrations over trade with the EU, but equally saying they'd compensated with new sales outside the EU. It does raise the question whether a lot of companies have actually been missing opportunities for not looking further afield. Perhaps that's what's going on here.

 

Nope! We're not members, so this trade is being conducted without having to join another trading organisation, the rules of which we have no control over.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,576]

3 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Nope! We're not members, so this trade is being conducted without having to join another trading organisation, the rules of which we have no control over.

So why has it happened then?

[horsefly 4,310]

1 minute ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

So why has it happened then?

We've always had the opportunity to trade outside of the Single Market. Are you seriously suggesting we never traded with any other country than EU countries until we left? It's no surprise that companies are desperately looking for alternatives now we have made trading with our European neighbours so bloody riddled with red tape, confusion, expenses, and delays.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,576]

5 minutes ago, horsefly said:

We've always had the opportunity to trade outside of the Single Market. Are you seriously suggesting we never traded with any other country than EU countries until we left? It's no surprise that companies are desperately looking for alternatives now we have made trading with our European neighbours so bloody riddled with red tape, confusion, expenses, and delays.

That's not an answer.

[horsefly 4,310]

Just now, littleyellowbirdie said:

That's not an answer.

You mean that's not an answer you can answer. I fully understand, as you remain one of the few that thinks Brexit is working

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,576]

Just now, horsefly said:

You mean that's not an answer you can answer. I fully understand, as you remain one of the few that thinks Brexit is working

 

It's not an answer I can answer? That's a weird way of dodging addressing the fact you didn't answer and simply threw some rhetorical questions deflecting from you not answering.

[horsefly 4,310]

1 minute ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

It's not an answer I can answer? That's a weird way of dodging addressing the fact you didn't answer and simply threw some rhetorical questions deflecting from you not answering.

Read it again. When you f**k up your nearest trading market (the EU), massively increasing bureaucracy and costs to exporters, those exporters will look to other markets with fewer problems to sell their goods. The point is surely simple enough for even you to understand.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,576]

12 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Read it again. When you f**k up your nearest trading market (the EU), massively increasing bureaucracy and costs to exporters, those exporters will look to other markets with fewer problems to sell their goods. The point is surely simple enough for even you to understand.

Well there you have it: UK business is looking harder for opportunities elsewhere instead of simply resting on the laurels of EU trade. Who knows to what extent this simple change in mentaility will finish up benefitting the UK, let alone when the new rules of CPTPP do actually come into effect?

In the meantime, nothing stopping us getting a closer economic relationship with the EU as well, especially once we bring in import checks to give the EU a bit of incentive.

Edited January 18 by littleyellowbirdie

[horsefly 4,310]

4 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Well there you have it: UK business is looking harder for opportunities elsewhere instead of simply resting on the laurels of EU trade. Who knows to what extent this simple change in mentaility will finish up benefitting the UK, let alone when the new rules of CPTPP do actually come into effect?

In the meantime, nothing stopping us getting a closer economic relationship with the EU as well, especially once we bring in import checks to give the EU a bit of incentive.

Hahahahahahahaha! Brilliant business plan. F**k up your nearest and dominant trading market and try to replace it with markets thousands of miles away. Guess why we've had record business failures, and other businesses have moved from the UK to Europe. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,576]

21 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Hahahahahahahaha! Brilliant business plan. F**k up your nearest and dominant trading market and try to replace it with markets thousands of miles away. Guess why we've had record business failures, and other businesses have moved from the UK to Europe. 

It's not really that f*ked up though is it? Here we are post-Brexit and over 50% of our trade (more imports than exports like it was before we left) while the most pessimistic counterfactuals, which are always pretty speculative, especially when those making them have an axe to grind, have the damage at 6%. All this at the time complicated by global instability, increasing protectionism, inflation, global economic slowdown and the questions over the actual economic value of the EU can be as readily asked as they can be about the future value of CPTPP. For all we know, the drop in EU trade can be as much psychosomatic as the growth in booze exports to the CPTPP countries.

The trouble is I just don't trust a lot of the hard sell on how bad Brexit it; too many still campaigning dead set on rejoining the EU for the sake of wider ideological beliefs beyond just economics and too many other things going on in the world for it to be as simple as that.

Edited January 18 by littleyellowbirdie

[horsefly 4,310]

16 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

It's not really that f*ked up though is it? Here we are post-Brexit and over 50% of our trade (more imports than exports like it was before we left) while the most pessimistic counterfactuals, which are always pretty speculative, especially when those making them have an axe to grind, have the damage at 6%. All this at the time complicated by global instability, increasing protectionism, inflation, global economic slowdown and the questions over the actual economic value of the EU can be as readily asked as they can be about the future value of CPTPP. For all we know, the drop in EU trade can be as much psychosomatic as the growth in booze exports to the CPTPP countries.

The trouble is I just don't trust a lot of the hard sell on how bad Brexit it; too many still campaigning dead set on rejoining the EU for the sake of wider ideological beliefs beyond just economics and too many other things going on in the world for it to be as simple as that.

A post criticising counterfactual speculation that is full of counterfactual speculation. Nice!

[littleyellowbirdie 2,576]

5 minutes ago, horsefly said:

A post criticising counterfactual speculation that is full of counterfactual speculation. Nice!

This response was so amusing I almost feel sorry to point out that my own speculation isn't technically counterfactual in nature. 🙂

[horsefly 4,310]

3 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

This response was so amusing I almost feel sorry to point out that my own speculation isn't technically counterfactual in nature. 🙂

"...while the most pessimistic counterfactuals, which are always pretty speculative, especially when those making them have an axe to grind, have the damage at 6%."

"For all we know, the drop in EU trade can be as much psychosomatic as the growth in booze exports to the CPTPP countries."

 

[Fen Canary 861]

On 18/01/2024 at 05:34, horsefly said:

Except the CPTPP hasn't resulted in that, because we are not actually members yet. I think you need to look up the difference between "cause" and "correlation" 

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/the-uk-and-the-comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnershipcptpp

So all those posts of yours about Brexit causing businesses to leave Britain and the damage it has caused before 2020 were actually wrong then, as we hadn’t left yet it at that point? 

[horsefly 4,310]

15 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

So all those posts of yours about Brexit causing businesses to leave Britain and the damage it has caused before 2020 were actually wrong then, as we hadn’t left yet it at that point? 

Oh dear! You keep proving your ignorance on a daily basis. Some businesses explicitly stated they were leaving the UK before the Brexit deal was finalised to avoid its harm (the reason why Rees-Mogg moved his HQ to Dublin). Other businesses have subsequently left the UK, or moved large parts of their business to Europe, since the damage done by Brexit. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,576]

3 minutes ago, horsefly said:

Oh dear! You keep proving your ignorance on a daily basis. Some businesses explicitly stated they were leaving the UK before the Brexit deal was finalised to avoid its harm (the reason why Rees-Mogg moved his HQ to Dublin). Other businesses have subsequently left the UK, or moved large parts of their business to Europe, since the damage done by Brexit. 

So how is business clearly ramping up sales focus in a part of the world (and the markets clearly being more receptive to buying our products) where we have agreements about to come into effect any different to companies acting to move away from the UK in anticipation of leaving the EU? How can one be called cause and effect but not the other?

Edited January 19 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,819]

On 13/01/2024 at 10:35, Herman said:

The Panama Canal is having troubles. The Suez Canal is having troubles. Importing from next door is getting harder thanks to brexit.

Buckle up people.