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sonyc

Interesting stat on goals conceded

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We have conceded 22 goals at home with only Villa worse (24) and level with Reading (22),  then Preston (21). Yet away from home we are second best in the league with only 12 conceded (best is Boro with only 10).  I was amazed to see this split.

Now, it's very interesting. It disproves the critical media that we have a shocking defence all the time (and even at home, we score more).

There is obviously something going on at home. Perhaps we are under sheer pressure to entertain?

What do people think? What might account for such a dichotomy in home and away stats like this? 

 

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Posted (edited)

Of the 22 goals conceded in the 13 home matches played, 17 have been in just 5 games in which we have conceded 4 goals twice (WBA and Derby) and 3 in each of the others (Leeds, Millwall, Forest). In the other 8 games we have conceded just 5 goals, so the "split" is not quite as simple as it looks. These figures don't suggest some endemic problem with our defending at home but rather the need to analyse those 5 matches on an individual basis. For example, in the two early games against WBA and Leeds, individual blunders blighted what were otherwise good performances. 

Edited by westcoastcanary
Arithmetic!

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I think it was Ralph R (will not Google how to spell his surname!) at Southampton who stated that football is a game of errors. And the team that makes the least has the better chance of winning. Ergo, the teams that can capitalise on these individual errors, likewise have a strong influence on positive results. 

It's interesting therefore to note that these 5 games have accounted for lots of goals but they may just be 'rogue' mistakes...and not symptomatic as such of the norm...or  just that on those occasions where a mistake was made (thinking Aarons v NF) that the other team just happened to capitalise. 

On corners too, I've noted somewhere that a goal is rarely directly scored from a long corner (think c.11 or 12% of the time only)  meaning no goal in c.9 out of 10 occasions (hence quite a few of the top teams play it short and build on the edge of the box). That we have conceded quite a few is again worthy of analysis. I'm sure Farke and his coaching team  have done so.

So it is indeed interesting to split the home games Westcoast.

Yet, it is also fascinating nevertheless that we have conceded almost 50% less away from home overall. Those 'rogue' 4 or 5 games have not happened when we've played away. 

 

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Posted (edited)

Indeed, we are yet to concede 3 or 4 away from home. I still think it's wrong to make too much of the WBA and Leeds results though; we hadn't arrived at a settled team at that point, and different players were involved.  

Re. corners, my recollection is when we've enjoyed our most success it has been with sides that prevented opposition goals from corners and could score from our own -- the Forbes/Stringer partnership for example. We haven't seen that since -- well, since when?

Edited by westcoastcanary

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Would be interesting to see what would happen if we left 1 up top when the opposition had a corner, e.g. Hernandez or Buendia. Would mean the opposition would have to leave at least 2 back to cover and also there would be less likelihood of short corners and spare men in and around the box, which was the issue against Forest.

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17 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

Would be interesting to see what would happen if we left 1 up top when the opposition had a corner, e.g. Hernandez or Buendia. Would mean the opposition would have to leave at least 2 back to cover and also there would be less likelihood of short corners and spare men in and around the box, which was the issue against Forest.

Don't really agree with that Capt. P. If we leave 1 up the opposition will leave 2 back. If we don't leave anyone up the opposition will still leave 1 back. Either way we've got 1 more player back than the opposition. It's what our defending players actually do/don't do that defines the outcome (combined of course with what the opposition do). 

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10 hours ago, westcoastcanary said:

Indeed, we are yet to concede 3 or 4 away from home. I still think it's wrong to make too much of the WBA and Leeds results though; we hadn't arrived at a settled team at that point, and different players were involved.  

Re. corners, my recollection is when we've enjoyed our most success it has been with sides that prevented opposition goals from corners and could score from our own -- the Forbes/Stringer partnership for example. We haven't seen that since -- well, since when?

A couple of thoughts on the corner situation-

1) I think this is an area we miss Hanley- strong in the air and good organizationally. Zimmerman is surprisingly poor in the air despite being such a big lad.

2) You're always going to be more vulnerable to set pieces when you're team is mainly talented but diminutive playmaker types. Outside of the central defenders only Steipermann has any real aerial presence in our usual starting XI. 

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2 hours ago, Thirsty Lizard said:

Don't really agree with that Capt. P. If we leave 1 up the opposition will leave 2 back. If we don't leave anyone up the opposition will still leave 1 back. Either way we've got 1 more player back than the opposition. It's what our defending players actually do/don't do that defines the outcome (combined of course with what the opposition do). 

Not so sure about the opposition always leaving 1 back. Maybe we need to be more flexible and send someone up if possible.

As a slight aside I remember the old Arsenal side with Henry playing down here and their fans roared when WE got a corner as they were so good on the counter attack!

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I think it was conor southwell who highlighted that we concede far less than a goal a game when leitner tettey start and more than 2 per game when one is missing. Vrancic is playing well but does leave us more open.

 

Goals conceded is not always  just about the back 4 and gk.    And the number of changes in personnel in the back line recently has not helped

 

Stick with them, practice set pieces and i am confident things will improve.

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Basic reason for conceding at corners zonal marking, goals conceded by players not being picked up, second goal for Forest a prime example.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, pete said:

Basic reason for conceding at corners zonal marking, goals conceded by players not being picked up, second goal for Forest a prime example.

Pete, you've just contradicted yourself by admitting that the basic reason is our players not picking up those they should pick up. it doesn't matter whether they "should pick up" those players because it's their assigned zone, or because it's their "man", the individual  they've been assigned to mark. And by the way, we don't always and only operate a zonal marking system. Like the vast majority of good teams in every league in the world, we use a mix of the two. And, again by the way, zonal marking is used everywhere on the field, not just in and around the penalty box when defending set pieces. It's a crucial element in our outfield play.

Edited by westcoastcanary
Added final sentence.

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Could those good with stats reveal what leads to the goals being conceded?

For instance, do we concede less set pieces away from home? Is our possession greater away from home? Are they headers or shots or shots from knock downs?

At home we have conceded three or more against the better teams. Is that because we are vulnerable ourselves on the break?

To be honest, when I watch Ifollow, we play better away from home. I think that is the answer. We play better when we don't have to make the running.

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