Bookies Predicting Norwich Relegation!!!

[The Fish Seller 0]

[quote user="Paint Me Yellow"]

[quote user="Steelsilver"]Is Adams a bookie? No...and i bet if you asked him to back Norwich to finish even mid table...he''d run a mile. Doomsday for City is drawing nearer and nearer.[/quote]

So bookies are the oracle now. What a bookie says goes?

So if the bookies said there was a good chance I could life a 10-ton bus with one arm would you believe them? More importantly would you place a bet?

I''m not say we will or won''t go down but your theory on bookies knowing all seems flawed.

[/quote]

Let me explain how a bookies work PMY.

For everything they say there is a chance of happening, they also say there is a good chance of it not happening.

When the bookie says there is a good chance of you being able to lift a 10 bus they will give odds on this being succesfully completed.

They will also give odds on this not being succesfully completed.

Here''s another example Norwich vs Ipswich at Carrow rd.

Norwich are quoted at 1/3 on favourites to win. This implies they have a good chance.
However the same bookies will qoute odds of 5/2 that Ipswich win that match. impliying they have an outside chance.
And just to mess it up completely they''ll give 11/8 the draw. Implying a reasonable chance of this being the outcome.

 

Just because the Bookies originally say Norwich have a "good" chance of winning doesn''t mean they will so the bookies lay off that bet against punters who think they''ll draw and those who think Ipswich will win. Yhe bookies wont neccesarily know or care what the result is because the odds are calculated to ensure a statistical profit over a succesion of events.

eg we all know its 50/50 heads or tails when you toss a coin so the break even point for a layer is odds of 1/2
The bookie will need to make a profit so will offer 2/5 heads, 2/5 tails and 10-1 it lands on its side. The bookie will get punters at these odds (go in any bookies in the country and you will see the same thing happening with horses and dogs)

Favourite backers may win more frequently but will win less since by definition they back the horse with the shortest odds.The bookies like favourites backers. They are basically choosing the same horses that the bookies think will win each time. Why would this make bookies happy I hear you ask? Well if the bookie decides that "JasparMcGrasper" is most likely to win the 3.30 Haydock and calculate he has a one in three chance of winning, then by making him 2/1 Fav or less they''ll be in profit since they will have laid him off against all the other horses in the race calculating but offering shorter odds on each one than the mathematics dictate to be their actual statistical chance.

 

So back to your original questions.

So if the bookies said there was a good chance I could life a 10-ton bus with one arm would you believe them?

Well yes I would. You can also get odds on Elvis living on Mars, Lord Lucan reappearing and Labour getting in at the next General Election. Novelty bets can be a good earner for bookies

 More importantly would you place a bet?

You would need to tell me the odds first. I would never bet on you being able to lift the bus but I would certainly consider betting against you although I suggest odds of 1-1,000,000 not worthwhile

If however they offered odds of 1,000,000-1 on you and a whopping 50-1 against I''d remortgage the remortgage and slap the lot down.

Against you.

But remember it is entirely based on mathematics. They wont win every time but they will over a period of samples. The odds they offer in promotion this year imply that if this season were played in exactly the same circumstances 10 times over they would expect us to go down about three times. Lets just hope that 2008-9 is not one of those three statistical years hey?

[NorwichsNewFinest 0]

[quote user="WeAreYellows49"][quote user="norwichsnewfinest"]

Although he is great comedy value (however intentional it is!), I feel Steelsilver''s points on this thread about as legit as a chocolate fireguard.

But then I suppose when you''re a muli-gazillionaire you can write what you want eh??????

[/quote]

If you were that rich you wouldn''t write anything yourself surely, you''d have someone to do it for you lol.

[/quote]

Ah, I thin you may have just gone and cracked it WAY49!!! That''s what it is. He is obviously a multi multi millionaire but it is getting his offspring or illiterate man-servant to formulate replies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All of a sudden it becomes clear!!!!!! Good detective work there.

[WeAreYellows49 0]

[quote user="norwichsnewfinest"][quote user="WeAreYellows49"][quote user="norwichsnewfinest"]

Although he is great comedy value (however intentional it is!), I feel Steelsilver''s points on this thread about as legit as a chocolate fireguard.

But then I suppose when you''re a muli-gazillionaire you can write what you want eh??????

[/quote]

If you were that rich you wouldn''t write anything yourself surely, you''d have someone to do it for you lol.

[/quote]

Ah, I thin you may have just gone and cracked it WAY49!!! That''s what it is. He is obviously a multi multi millionaire but it is getting his offspring or illiterate man-servant to formulate replies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All of a sudden it becomes clear!!!!!! Good detective work there.

[/quote]

 

Well the more I read of his posts the more everything becomes so clear lol.

For instance, who these days uses the word ''''dude'''' unless you are American or a traveller hippy type, or extremely young, even then I can''t say that I have heard my daughters or grand children use dude quite so frequently as they did maybe 5 years or so ago.  So uncool to be so 90''s [H] [:D]

[Buncey 1]

[quote user="WeAreYellows49"][quote user="norwichsnewfinest"][quote user="WeAreYellows49"][quote user="norwichsnewfinest"]

Although he is great comedy value (however intentional it is!), I feel Steelsilver''s points on this thread about as legit as a chocolate fireguard.

But then I suppose when you''re a muli-gazillionaire you can write what you want eh??????

[/quote]

If you were that rich you wouldn''t write anything yourself surely, you''d have someone to do it for you lol.

[/quote]

Ah, I thin you may have just gone and cracked it WAY49!!! That''s what it is. He is obviously a multi multi millionaire but it is getting his offspring or illiterate man-servant to formulate replies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All of a sudden it becomes clear!!!!!! Good detective work there.

[/quote]

 

Well the more I read of his posts the more everything becomes so clear lol.

For instance, who these days uses the word ''''dude'''' unless you are American or a traveller hippy type, or extremely young, even then I can''t say that I have heard my daughters or grand children use dude quite so frequently as they did maybe 5 years or so ago.  So uncool to be so 90''s [H] [:D]

[/quote]Ah but 5 years ago is 2003, the 00''s [;)]

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

[quote user="Steelsilver"]you stay away from my gonads ya hear!! Maybe valdo would be more welcoming there......i only posting the truth...truth hurts...[/quote]

You''ve done nothing of the sort.

You said how "bookies never get it wrong"

Everyone else has proved you wrong.

All pink''un has done has quoted the bookies. Thats all

...and then you went on about how rich you were and could afford a million quid bet.....

.....and after that I lost interest in you

...........until buddhaboy came up with a nice charity idea......which you have failed to acknowledge.

...................and you''re a moron

 

[Steelsilver 0]

dude, anyone can lift a 10 ton bus....you never quoted on how to lift the bus...so with the right equipment eg: crane...i could lift a 10 ton bus...

[Steelsilver 0]

oh and about someone writing this for me...who''s to say they not??? who''s to say i''m not telling my secretary to write this in a 1st person tence?

[Mello Yello 2,303]

How many (of the more well-known) traditional bookies, have actually gone into receivership, requested huge loans, accrued unmanageable debt and witnessed falling attendances?

 

[Shyster 0]

[quote user="Steelsilver"]oh and about someone writing this for me...who''s to say they not??? who''s to say i''m not telling my secretary to write this in a 1st person tence?[/quote]

Who''s to say this thread ceased being funny approximately 12 pages back, and who''s to say you''re not a class ''A'' twot?I do actually, but you''re no bigger a twot than the sad, bored  tools  who''re keeping you amused.

[Scottlarock 3]

[quote user="shyster"][quote user="Steelsilver"]oh and about someone writing this for me...who''s to say they not??? who''s to say i''m not telling my secretary to write this in a 1st person tence?[/quote]

Who''s to say this thread ceased being funny approximately 12 pages back, and who''s to say you''re not a class ''A'' twot?I do actually, but you''re no bigger a twot than the sad, bored  tools  who''re keeping you amused. [/quote].......of which you are now one but sadly you''re not very good x

[Scottlarock 3]

[quote user="Steelsilver"]dude, anyone can lift a 10 ton bus....you never quoted on how to lift the bus...so with the right equipment eg: crane...i could lift a 10 ton bus...[/quote]...actually he did, in the very same post ie...with one arm.....................you couldn''t lift a bus with a crane....you wouldn''t be allowed to....you''re not old enough.anyway the bet? Now its for charity.....surely you can do the right thing?

By the way Steelsilver...are you free on Tuesday?!

[Shyster 0]

"you couldn''t lift a bus with a crane....you wouldn''t be allowed to....you''re not old enough."

Oh looky - another reference to the retard Steelsilver being a schoolboy joke. [:P]

[Shyster 0]

".......of which you are now one but sadly you''re not very good x"

Yes well, it''s difficult to be amusing amidst such comedic geniuses.Can I borrow your 1973 bumper book of jokes annual?

[Carlos Valderrama 0]

[quote user="shyster"]".......of which you are now one but sadly you''re not very good x"


Yes well, it''s difficult to be amusing amidst such comedic geniuses.

Can I borrow your 1973 bumper book of jokes annual?
[/quote]

And you can always rely on one person to bring it down.  Steel is giving us all the ammo we need and we will continue as long as he keeps coming back.

Oh hang on!! I have just figured it out.  You are his mum and you are upset that your little fella is getting a hammering.  Sorry Mrs. Silver......

[Shyster 0]

It''s just that the Silversteel character is so ridicuously unbelievable that any comedy value this thread had dissolved shortly after his multi-millionnaire claim.Silversteel''s writing style suggests to me that he is yet another alter ego of Smudger.

[WeAreYellows49 0]

[quote user="Fellas"][quote user="WeAreYellows49"][quote user="norwichsnewfinest"][quote user="WeAreYellows49"][quote user="norwichsnewfinest"]

Although he is great comedy value (however intentional it is!), I feel Steelsilver''s points on this thread about as legit as a chocolate fireguard.

But then I suppose when you''re a muli-gazillionaire you can write what you want eh??????

[/quote]

If you were that rich you wouldn''t write anything yourself surely, you''d have someone to do it for you lol.

[/quote]

Ah, I thin you may have just gone and cracked it WAY49!!! That''s what it is. He is obviously a multi multi millionaire but it is getting his offspring or illiterate man-servant to formulate replies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

All of a sudden it becomes clear!!!!!! Good detective work there.

[/quote]

 

Well the more I read of his posts the more everything becomes so clear lol.

For instance, who these days uses the word ''''dude'''' unless you are American or a traveller hippy type, or extremely young, even then I can''t say that I have heard my daughters or grand children use dude quite so frequently as they did maybe 5 years or so ago.  So uncool to be so 90''s [H] [:D]

[/quote]

Ah but 5 years ago is 2003, the 00''s [;)]
[/quote]

 

Picky picky lol the word was still being banded around 5 years ago, albeit less frequently than in the 90''s, that a better explanation? [:D]

[Scottlarock 3]

[quote user="shyster"][quote user="Steelsilver"]oh and about someone writing this for me...who''s to say they not??? who''s to say i''m not telling my secretary to write this in a 1st person tence?[/quote]

Who''s to say this thread ceased being funny approximately 12 pages back, and who''s to say you''re not a class ''A'' twot?I do actually, but you''re no bigger a twot than the sad, bored  tools  who''re keeping you amused. [/quote]

...so why have you joined it now? Please, just one reason that makes sense that doesn''t make you sound like a sad, boring whatever it was you said !

[Steelsilver 0]

ha ha...sure it does, thing is...think everyone on here now has started agreeing with the original post as to the bookies prediction....its taken 5000 posts + to convince them...but i guess better late then neva eh?

[Carlos Valderrama 0]

[quote user="Steelsilver"]ha ha...sure it does, thing is...think everyone on here now has started agreeing with the original post as to the bookies prediction....its taken 5000 posts + to convince them...but i guess better late then neva eh?[/quote]

Whatever steel.  We were all actually having a decent little debate, then you offered to bet someone a million quid and your reputation just plummeted and shattered from there on in.  The events after that will go down in forum history, and you sunshine have earnt yourself the status of legend for all the wrong reasons.

For what it is worth, I dont think there is a cats chance in hell of us getting relegated.  And, mainly due to my OTT level of optimism and all round sunny disposition I think we will be in and around the playoff positions.  Half a dozen quality footballers + some decent loans and things could be all good.

[National express super guard 0]

Just put £3 on us to win promotion next season, on betfair. they matched me bet and stand to win up to £40. ok, so £3 suggests not much confidence but least I''m not all doom and gloom!

[Carlos Valderrama 0]

I have put a princly £1.00 on Norwich winning the league, Arsenal winning the prem, leicester league one and Celtic the Scottish.  Would win a handsome £2000ish if it happened in that order.  Arsenal at 5/1, Leicester at 5/1, Celtic at 5/11, Norwich at 33/1.  Not a bad little punt, unfortunately will have to concede that Norwich are the weakest link but stranger things have happened.

[NorwichsNewFinest 0]

[quote user="Carlos Valderrama"]I have put a princly £1.00 on Norwich winning the league, Arsenal winning the prem, leicester league one and Celtic the Scottish.  Would win a handsome £2000ish if it happened in that order.  Arsenal at 5/1, Leicester at 5/1, Celtic at 5/11, Norwich at 33/1.  Not a bad little punt, unfortunately will have to concede that Norwich are the weakest link but stranger things have happened.[/quote]

Exactly why it''s worth a shot! Sounds like a fair idea there!

[Scottlarock 3]

[quote user="Steelsilver"]ok Scottlarock you go make a bet on Norwich being in the top playoffs ...show me your screenshot of your ticket...and then tell me i''m speaking rubbish!! [/quote]Hiya Steel...........I''m a man of my word and I did say that i''d get back to you. I also mentioned to people to have a look at this thread on Tuesday...well, I''m a day early.http://picasaweb.google.com/wilsonsmith1.......the bookie read the thread and was very happy to be photographed just to prove that BOOKIES ARE NOT PREDICTING NORWICH RELEGATION.I also asked if he''d be happy to give me a price on you either admitting you''re wrong or you not being a millionaire....as they are absolute certainties he refused....after laughing for about ten minutes.Have a nice day sir and if you finally want to bet with me............now''s your chance.

[WeAreYellows49 0]

lmao Scottlarock, nice one.  Bet ole Steel still thinks of something to wriggle his way out, I just can''t wait to hear it [:D]

[Scottlarock 3]

[quote user="WeAreYellows49"]lmao Scottlarock, nice one.  Bet ole Steel still thinks of something to wriggle his way out, I just can''t wait to hear it [:D][/quote]

I''m sure he''ll try.....I tried to paste the pic onto the post and couldn''t. Any posters feel free to include it in thier posts on this thread so as many posters can see it as possible.Had a great laugh doing it ;-)

[Evil Monkey 52]

Absolutely LOVE it!!!

[Evil Monkey 52]

Aw dammit...

[Carlos Valderrama 0]

There you go Scott...I am loving this thread, cant wait for Steel to come back at this little number....The boy is a legend

[Scottlarock 3]

[quote user="Carlos Valderrama"]There you go Scott...I am loving this thread, cant wait for Steel to come back at this little number....The boy is a legend[/quote]

http://picasaweb.google.com/wilsonsmith1

Yup, it''s been fun alright and a nice aside from the nothing going on at the club and the doom n gloom on other posts.Web Team....can you help get the photo on the thread please.....pretty please.

[NorwichsNewFinest 0]

[quote user="Scottlarock"][quote user="Carlos Valderrama"]There you go Scott...I am loving this thread, cant wait for Steel to come back at this little number....The boy is a legend[/quote]


http://picasaweb.google.com/wilsonsmith1


Yup, it''s been fun alright and a nice aside from the nothing going on at the club and the doom n gloom on other posts.

Web Team....can you help get the photo on the thread please.....pretty please.
[/quote]

Love that. I''m pretty sure the erstwhile Mr Silver''s reply (when he get''s home from school of course) may be something along the lines of "That photo''s doctored".......

Wouldn''t surprise me!