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The Judge

Statistics - a question

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Trent - its a scary view isnt it; it seems we are doomed to a long stay in this league no matter what.

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So your saying they don''t have any quality players?Plymouth have:Capaldi - played in the Ireland win over England and played well, good solid player.Perricard - scored a hatrick and a reliable-ish striker.Larrieu - good goalkeeper.These I know off the top of my head and there are a couple of others like Norris who I could also throw in. None would walk into our starting line up although they are all equal to many of our squad players. Although maybe Perricard as he is a bit taller than Earnie and McKenzie still not really a target man though!QPR have:Danny Shittu - Central defender that a lot of teams are having a look at, even I would say that we should go for him given half a chance.Steve Lomas - Maybe getting on a bit but can pass the ball as well as anyone only down side is his passing.Paul Jones - Getting on a bit now but still a quality goal keeper.QPR are very much in a similar boat to Ipswich - they have a lot of old players like Ainsworth and Lomas who know the league well and now the current management is getting the youngsters in to be the next crop of solid players. As youngsters are unkown I think it is hard to say whether they are quality or not. Look at how well Arsenal have done using theirs?  Who are we to say that next season the youngsters at QPR couldn''t carry them to a play off place?Football is tough - we do have a better squad on paper than most - but this does not mean for any reason that we should walk the league. Or even breeze into a play-off place. Sometimes players perform better with the surroundings they are in. How many players do you know of that have only ever played well at one club? There are quite a few. belive me, Darren Anderton, for example, easily had his best days at Portsmouth.It is so very easy to let the blame lay entirely at Worthingtons feet but I believe that there are more factors involved than that. And that although some of the factors may be solved by his replacement are they enough to warrent having him replaced?

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[quote user="ZippersLeftFoot"]Trent - its a scary view isnt it; it seems we are doomed to a long stay in this league no matter what.[/quote]

ZLF - I have to say Im getting prepared for another long stay in this division. And as I mentioned earlier, Im worried that even if we do change the manager things may not get any better. This division is an absolute bitch to get out of.

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[quote user="Yellow Rages"]

I don''t think you get it.

Why would these finding be interesting seeing as I want him out?

The facts are the facts whatever my opinion.

I may want him out but I am also brave enough to except what I find out. Could you do the same?

I think that the best way to gain an all round opinion is to look at the facts. As you know we see on here only too often, pro and anti Worhty folk comming up with complete trash.

This doesn''t mean I am terrified of appointing someone else. This analysis is simply spinless, not spineless.

This doesn''t reflect my opinion but as you now know, we can''t hide away from the facts.

That was the point of this thread.

[/quote]I don''t think you get it YR!Trent was referring to himself when he replied to you - he has stated his position as Worthy Out, but worried that we will get someone worse.Your OTT paranoia has led you to misread his post and insult him - one of the reasons why Trent (unfortunately) rarely posts on here anymore.

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[quote user="chicken"]So your saying they don''t have any quality players?

Plymouth have:

Capaldi - played in the Ireland win over England and played well, good solid player.
Perricard - scored a hatrick and a reliable-ish striker.
Larrieu - good goalkeeper.

These I know off the top of my head and there are a couple of others like Norris who I could also throw in. None would walk into our starting line up although they are all equal to many of our squad players. Although maybe Perricard as he is a bit taller than Earnie and McKenzie still not really a target man though!

QPR have:

Danny Shittu - Central defender that a lot of teams are having a look at, even I would say that we should go for him given half a chance.
Steve Lomas - Maybe getting on a bit but can pass the ball as well as anyone only down side is his passing.
Paul Jones - Getting on a bit now but still a quality goal keeper.

QPR are very much in a similar boat to Ipswich - they have a lot of old players like Ainsworth and Lomas who know the league well and now the current management is getting the youngsters in to be the next crop of solid players. As youngsters are unkown I think it is hard to say whether they are quality or not. Look at how well Arsenal have done using theirs?  Who are we to say that next season the youngsters at QPR couldn''t carry them to a play off place?

Football is tough - we do have a better squad on paper than most - but this does not mean for any reason that we should walk the league. Or even breeze into a play-off place. Sometimes players perform better with the surroundings they are in. How many players do you know of that have only ever played well at one club? There are quite a few. belive me, Darren Anderton, for example, easily had his best days at Portsmouth.

It is so very easy to let the blame lay entirely at Worthingtons feet but I believe that there are more factors involved than that. And that although some of the factors may be solved by his replacement are they enough to warrent having him replaced?
[/quote]

We Have/Had

Green - an England Capped goalkeeper

Doherty - many Republic of Ireland Caps

Drury - arguably the best left back in this division

Safri - played in an african nations cup final

Huckerby - promoted twice in this division and championship player of the season

Ashton - 20 goals in half a season at this level

Now Earnshaw - 25 goal a season man

Jonaton Johanson - Finnish International Striker

Worthy is failing to get them playing as a team or even playing football which we know they are capable of.....

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[quote user="Fat Barman"][quote user="Yellow Rages"]

I don''t think you get it.

Why would these finding be interesting seeing as I want him out?

The facts are the facts whatever my opinion.

I may want him out but I am also brave enough to except what I find out. Could you do the same?

I think that the best way to gain an all round opinion is to look at the facts. As you know we see on here only too often, pro and anti Worhty folk comming up with complete trash.

This doesn''t mean I am terrified of appointing someone else. This analysis is simply spinless, not spineless.

This doesn''t reflect my opinion but as you now know, we can''t hide away from the facts.

That was the point of this thread.

[/quote]

I don''t think you get it YR!

Trent was referring to himself when he replied to you - he has stated his position as Worthy Out, but worried that we will get someone worse.

Your OTT paranoia has led you to misread his post and insult him - one of the reasons why Trent (unfortunately) rarely posts on here anymore.
[/quote]

You are quite right FB I did misread his post. And if you bothered to read on, you would see how that little issue was resolved. Perhaps your OTT comments are what lead people to not post that often. It is this sort of unnecesary post that turn people away. And to think all you had to do was read on. Dissapointing. I am also pretty sure he wasn''t insulted, maybe a little confused by what I said. Either way I''m sure he can speak for himself. Comments like that are not needed firstly on this board and particularly on this thread, which is about the real facts. Thanks for your input though. Needed like a hole in the head.

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Interesting stats, but bringing the squad situation into the discussion only highlights one of the more reasonable anti-Worthy arguments - he must largely take the blame for that. Stability is definitely important, and you have to be very confident that any change you intend to make will be for the better. This is why I pound on about it being more important to get the right man in than get Worthy out. The problem for us is that we''re now at a crucial point in time - we have resources that we haven''t had for a long while, but they''ll vanish by the end of next season. And my feeling is that they''re not being used in the best way: the momentum has been lost as we rest on our laurels, which I felt we started to do as soon as we''d won promotion. If we don''t do it this season or next, we''ll be back to a bargain-basement squad, and that''ll be it for a while.

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YR. My turn to apologise!I don''t know why I stopped at the bottom of page 1 - perhaps it''s time to go back on the p!ss ?I''m having a particularly trying day today, but that''s no excuse for sloppy reading. You''re quite right, my post was a perfect example of somebody being so keen to jump on what they think has been said, that they lose sight of the big picture.Apologies again.*sinks slowly into underpants*

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[quote user="Old Boy"]

Interesting stats, but bringing the squad situation into the discussion only highlights one of the more reasonable anti-Worthy arguments - he must largely take the blame for that. Stability is definitely important, and you have to be very confident that any change you intend to make will be for the better. This is why I pound on about it being more important to get the right man in than get Worthy out. The problem for us is that we''re now at a crucial point in time - we have resources that we haven''t had for a long while, but they''ll vanish by the end of next season. And my feeling is that they''re not being used in the best way: the momentum has been lost as we rest on our laurels, which I felt we started to do as soon as we''d won promotion. If we don''t do it this season or next, we''ll be back to a bargain-basement squad, and that''ll be it for a while.

[/quote]

My sentiments exactly..

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Thatis a good point old boy - next seasons is the last parachute payment and so the last real opportunity to have a certain and larger transfer pot to shape the team with;  that  can only be spent once and is it wise to let worthy have that money when his recent spending has not delivered any level of performance.

 

If worthy fails with this last wedge of cash then he and subsequent managers will have relatively speaking no funds extending the length of the likely stay out of the prem

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[quote user="Yellow Rages"]

I''m back......................

Spent all afternoon on this so the boss wont be happy.

Anyway.

I have looked at all relegated clubs from the premiership since it started. I have noted if they changed manager either during their relegation season or during their next season in the lower division. I have also noted their finishing place in that season. This is excluding this season as we do not know the exact finishing place of any team.

37 clubs relegated

23 changed manager

14 kept manager

The average finishing place after relegation in 8.37

The average finishing place of all clubs that changed manager is 9.65

The average finishing place of all clubs that kept their manager is 6.28

Not what I expected at all but this tells us that on average, you are more likely as a club to finish higher if you keep your manager.

Obviously this needs to be looked at on a case by case basis but it does make interesting reading.

 

 

[/quote]Correlation does not imply causality. You suggest that sacking a manager causes teams to perform worse, but you fail to consider that perhaps an underperforming team causes the manager to be sacked. Either scenario would explain the correlation you describe. Now I''m taking a guess here, but I think the latter option is the more likely explanation.

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Bunny,

I don''t suggest that sacking the manager causes the team to perform worse. But the statistics do.

They do fail to consider an under performing side as the reason for why a manger would be sacked.

But as I have also said dispite the figures, this needs to be looked at on a case by case basis.

 

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[quote user="Fat Barman"]YR. My turn to apologise!

I don''t know why I stopped at the bottom of page 1 - perhaps it''s time to go back on the p!ss ?

I''m having a particularly trying day today, but that''s no excuse for sloppy reading. You''re quite right, my post was a perfect example of somebody being so keen to jump on what they think has been said, that they lose sight of the big picture.

Apologies again.

*sinks slowly into underpants*
[/quote]

Thank you FBM

Good of you to say that. Hope your day improved.

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