Statistics - a question

The Judge · March 9, 2006

Delia and Michael in their statement said words to the effect of the last 40 clubs who have been relegated only 9 have bounced back the next season.

Can one of you stato''s out there please advise; 1) how many of the 40 at least made the play off positions the next season and 2) how many had the same manager at the end of the season following relegation.

Just interested...

Oso Butch · March 9, 2006

... and how many of those managers had such a poor ''win to total games played'' ratio over their last 2 seasons - namely, 21 wins out of 75 games, which is 28% i.e. not even one win in three - and that''s just in the league games...

Talking of stats, I also noticed that we have only just exceeded the number of goals this year in 37 games that we scored in 38 games last year in the Premiership (45 this season, so far, compared with 42 last season).... I don''t call that ''success'' either..[8o|]

Citizen Journalist Foghorn · March 9, 2006

in the last 8 years the only 3 teams to be relegated and subsequently promoted after failing the first time are Man City, West Ham, Blackburn and Sunderland. With Sunderland and West Ham making the play-offs first time around. The only team to keep its manager was mick mccarthey at sunderland whom finished 3rd in his first season following relegation.

Yellow Rages · March 9, 2006

I''ll see what I can do but looking to see if they changed manager wouldn''t really prove a great deal unless I also looked at the teams final position the following season. That way we could see if a managerial change was an impacting factor on the team.

I''ll be back........................

ZLF · March 9, 2006

Just been digging. To go back to 40 clubs that means the 91/92 season - the three relegated this season have to currently count as outcome unknown.

The 10 promoted clubs (curiously none through playoffs and split 50/50 between champs and runners up) are

Promoted Made play off but not promoted

92/93 West Ham

93/94 Palace & Forest

95/96 None Palace & Leicester (Palace promoted the following season)

96/97 Bolton

97/98 Forest & middlesboro Sunderland

98/99 None Bolton

99/00 Charlton

01/02 man City

02/03 Leicester

03/04 West Brom West Ham & Sunderland (both promoted following season)

This does indeed show just how difficult it is to to gain promotion even making the top 6 is a significant acheivement

The list of relegated teams is below (and league position) - in addition to the manager changes that I couldnt check during my lunch hour other considerations to take into account would be financial situation (Leeds 2 yrs ago) and proportion of squad change and/or loss of first team players (West Ham 2003) that would also impact the chances of subsequent success.

The average position is 9th rounded up

2004	Leicester 15	Leeds 14	Wolves 9
2003	West Ham 4	West Brom 2	Sunderland 3
2002	Ipswich 7	Derby 18	Leicester 2
2001	Man City 1	Coventry 11	Bradford 15
2000	wimbledon 8	Sheff Weds 17	Watford 9
1999	Charlton 1	Blackburn 11	Forest 14
1998	Bolton 6	Barnsley 12	Palace 14
1997	sunderland 3	middlesborough 2	Forest 1
1996	Man City 14	QPR 10	Bolton 1
1995	palace 3	norwich 16	Leicester 6	Ipswich 7
1994	sheff utd 8	oldham 14	swindon 21
1993	Palace 1	boro 9	Forest 2
1992	Luton 19	Notts count 18	West ham 2

Oso Butch · March 9, 2006

Thanks CJ - the info seems to reinforce still further that the ''faith'' in NW really is blind to the facts and realities of the situation.

Perhaps Delia et al are trying to get him into the Guinness Book of Records - in the ''longest ineffective/most unsackable manager'' category.... [;)]

ZLF · March 9, 2006

Also 22 of the 40 relegated clubs have ever subsequently been promoted back to the top flight with 15 of the 37 attempts being successful within 2 seasons. 18 clubs have not got re-promoted since then which is frighteningly high number.

Only 2 clubs have not immediately made the playoff and got promoted the following season (boro in 93 & blackburn in 99) while those getting promoted after that take on average 6 years to gain that promotion - suggesting its next year or several years of toil for us with the odds stacked against getting repromoted in 10 years.

Yellow Rages · March 9, 2006

I''m back......................

Spent all afternoon on this so the boss wont be happy.

Anyway.

I have looked at all relegated clubs from the premiership since it started. I have noted if they changed manager either during their relegation season or during their next season in the lower division. I have also noted their finishing place in that season. This is excluding this season as we do not know the exact finishing place of any team.

37 clubs relegated

23 changed manager

14 kept manager

The average finishing place after relegation in 8.37

The average finishing place of all clubs that changed manager is 9.65

The average finishing place of all clubs that kept their manager is 6.28

Not what I expected at all but this tells us that on average, you are more likely as a club to finish higher if you keep your manager.

Obviously this needs to be looked at on a case by case basis but it does make interesting reading.

Trent Canary · March 9, 2006

Yellow - Very interesting findings. Especially for someone that wants Worthy out, but is terrified that we will appoint someone else who wont do any better. Its probably something that could be put into a new thread as its interesting reading.

Citizen Journalist Foghorn · March 9, 2006

so you are saying the average position for those clubs who keep their manager is 6th and we are 10th at the moment with some difficult matches to come, so we are going to help drag that avearge down. Worthy is failing miserably on that score.

Also the other worrying stat was the only two clubs to subsequently go up the next season after failing to make the play-offs were boro and blackburn or otherwise put Steve Gibson''s Millions and Jack Walkers millions.

The mould is there to be broken (not that we are showing any signs of it at the moment) suffice to say that worthy has failed miserably this season when he held all the aces (well 2 of them at least in Huckerby and Ashton).

INEPT

Trent Canary · March 9, 2006

[quote user="Trent Canary"]Yellow - Very interesting findings. Especially for someone that wants Worthy out, but is terrified that we will appoint someone else who wont do any better. Its probably something that could be put into a new thread as its interesting reading.[/quote]

Although I will add that the stats for the second year down would make interesting reading. (I wont make you spend another afternoon at work doing them though!)

Im just very worried that we may have to cope with a long stay in this division. Worthy or otherwise...

Yellow Rages · March 9, 2006

[quote user="Trent Canary"]Yellow - Very interesting findings. Especially for someone that wants Worthy out, but is terrified that we will appoint someone else who wont do any better. Its probably something that could be put into a new thread as its interesting reading.[/quote]

I don''t think you get it.

Why would these finding be interesting seeing as I want him out?

The facts are the facts whatever my opinion.

I may want him out but I am also brave enough to except what I find out. Could you do the same?

I think that the best way to gain an all round opinion is to look at the facts. As you know we see on here only too often, pro and anti Worhty folk comming up with complete trash.

This doesn''t mean I am terrified of appointing someone else. This analysis is simply spinless, not spineless.

This doesn''t reflect my opinion but as you now know, we can''t hide away from the facts.

That was the point of this thread.

chicken · March 9, 2006

[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"]

so you are saying the average position for those clubs who keep their manager is 6th and we are 10th at the moment with some difficult matches to come, so we are going to help drag that avearge down. Worthy is failing miserably on that score.

Also the other worrying stat was the only two clubs to subsequently go up the next season after failing to make the play-offs were boro and blackburn or otherwise put Steve Gibson''s Millions and Jack Walkers millions.

The mould is there to be broken (not that we are showing any signs of it at the moment) suffice to say that worthy has failed miserably this season when he held all the aces (well 2 of them at least in Huckerby and Ashton).

INEPT

[/quote]I''m not sure. 10th and not that far off 7th or 8th. Squad change would be another interesting factor. How many first team players did we loose in the summer?Svensson, Helveg, Jonson, Edworthy, Holt plus Mulryne. When your squad is rarely bigger than 25 with four keepers.Its interesting that people will accept the average although refuse to back the team or support it whilst it still has a chance of finnishing somewhere a lot closer to 6th. Also if you look at the average - I think you will find that we are four places off it whilst Southampton are where?The fact of the matter is Preston have played one of their games in hand and got a point from it. They are now 7 points clear of us with two games in hand. That means that they are on the same sort of form as Crystal palace who are ten points ahead with only one game in hand. I am not ruling out a late surge - but that would require belief and support from the fans and I can''t see that happening at the moment.As always you can see what you want to in stats as some how the outers still see something that should suggest Worthington should go. All I will say is how many years has it taken Warnock? And he is still struggling to get there! He is seen thoughout the leagues as one of the best managers out there yet you never see Sheff Utd complain about missing out after throwing it away so many times!As I have said before I don''t think it is entirely down to Worthington - I think expectations were high and perhaps not realistic.I remember (although can''t find it) a post on here at the beggining asking what peoples idea of success would be for this season, most said the play-offs a couple said automatic promotion. I''m sure I said at the time play-offs is more realistic.Please note that I am not saying that this is not at least partly down to Worthington but just that its not entirely his fault. We have not had a chance to play our first choice front two especially now half is no longer here - McKenzie and Ashton. Safri has been in and out of the side with injury and the African Nations Cup. Shackell has been injured - so many factors to bring in to consider.The first choice 11 this year would have ideally looked like this: GreenLuis-Jean Shackell Docherty DruryMarney Hughes Safri Huckerby McKenzie AshtonAn interesting point would be to see how many times that team played and what the results were! In an attempt to get the right back position sorted out we have seen Colin, Hughes and Fleming played there.In an attempt to try and sort out the right wing we have had Hughes, Jarrett, Etuhu, McVeigh, Henderson and Johansson play out there.Because of Safri missing games we have played and signed, Etuhu, Jarrett, Robinson, Jarvis, Charlton there.I think you can see that its only the youngsters that have not been given a chance and that is my only gripe - but saying that with expectations and pressure high would you take a risk on the untested to try and get you 1st or 2nd?It would be interesting to see what the asking price is for Kris Commons now as apposed to the amount being banded about last season.People are also more likely to listen to realistic offers from us now - I am sure that had we not just have been relegated Etuhu and Hughes would have been cheaper. But that is part and parcel of the game. I still think that they were about going rate for players in the prime of their career. You have to remember that Holt wanted to leave Scotland and was into the last year of his contract.There was an article on the pinkun some time ago stating what had happened to all of the players that we could have had or missed out on - I seem to remember it basically suggesting we were better off without the majority of them who like Stone have spent a season injured.

ZLF · March 9, 2006

As I said there are other influences and length of time at a club is also pertinent as wellas squaad turn over and financial situation. On the stats yellow R did you factor in clubs relegated who changed manager before the end of the season - McCarthy was appointed mid season in relegation with Sunderland I think and took them up two years later, yet had peter reid(?) still been in charge as the manager starting the season would the outcome be the same?

Without a doubt there is a clear, strong case for stability - but as with town and Burley/Royle teams can become more competeitve with a change of manager too...

As always there are stats, damn stats and lies! Its the analysis and going beneath the surface that adds real understanding.

Yellow Rages · March 9, 2006

As I said, there needs to be some case by case analysis here.

An example of onother impacting factor would be the financial element. Some clubs have been relegated from the Premier League because they were skint.

Leeds, Bradford, Sheffield Wednesday as examples. They then went on to have terrible seasons in the Championship because they were busy paying of debts and not buying players.

But these are facts of football so maybe they should be accounted for. I dunno my head hurts.

ncfc0405 · March 9, 2006

at last, some objectivity!fantastic thread, and yellow rages, fantastic analysis.correct me if I''m wrong but the conclusion from your analysis seems to be that if we maintain our current position we will have done slightly worse than the average relegated club, and that on average it is better for a club to retain their manager.if so, that is a very interesting conclusion indeed, and doesn''t point to a crisis at carrow road.

Trent Canary · March 9, 2006

Yellow rages, I dont think you get it either. When I say "Especially for someone that wants Worthy out, but is terrified that we will appoint someone else who wont do any better" im referring to me.

Why on earth would I be referring to you?

Citizen Journalist Foghorn · March 9, 2006

[quote user="chicken"][quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"]

so you are saying the average position for those clubs who keep their manager is 6th and we are 10th at the moment with some difficult matches to come, so we are going to help drag that avearge down. Worthy is failing miserably on that score.

Also the other worrying stat was the only two clubs to subsequently go up the next season after failing to make the play-offs were boro and blackburn or otherwise put Steve Gibson''s Millions and Jack Walkers millions.

The mould is there to be broken (not that we are showing any signs of it at the moment) suffice to say that worthy has failed miserably this season when he held all the aces (well 2 of them at least in Huckerby and Ashton).

INEPT

[/quote]

I''m not sure. 10th and not that far off 7th or 8th. Squad change would be another interesting factor. How many first team players did we loose in the summer?

Svensson, Helveg, Jonson, Edworthy, Holt plus Mulryne. When your squad is rarely bigger than 25 with four keepers.

Its interesting that people will accept the average although refuse to back the team or support it whilst it still has a chance of finnishing somewhere a lot closer to 6th. Also if you look at the average - I think you will find that we are four places off it whilst Southampton are where?

The fact of the matter is Preston have played one of their games in hand and got a point from it. They are now 7 points clear of us with two games in hand. That means that they are on the same sort of form as Crystal palace who are ten points ahead with only one game in hand. I am not ruling out a late surge - but that would require belief and support from the fans and I can''t see that happening at the moment.

As always you can see what you want to in stats as some how the outers still see something that should suggest Worthington should go. All I will say is how many years has it taken Warnock? And he is still struggling to get there! He is seen thoughout the leagues as one of the best managers out there yet you never see Sheff Utd complain about missing out after throwing it away so many times!

As I have said before I don''t think it is entirely down to Worthington - I think expectations were high and perhaps not realistic.

I remember (although can''t find it) a post on here at the beggining asking what peoples idea of success would be for this season, most said the play-offs a couple said automatic promotion. I''m sure I said at the time play-offs is more realistic.

Please note that I am not saying that this is not at least partly down to Worthington but just that its not entirely his fault. We have not had a chance to play our first choice front two especially now half is no longer here - McKenzie and Ashton. Safri has been in and out of the side with injury and the African Nations Cup. Shackell has been injured - so many factors to bring in to consider.

The first choice 11 this year would have ideally looked like this:

                            Green
Luis-Jean Shackell    Docherty   Drury
Marney      Hughes     Safri          Huckerby
                 McKenzie Ashton

An interesting point would be to see how many times that team played and what the results were! In an attempt to get the right back position sorted out we have seen Colin, Hughes and Fleming played there.

In an attempt to try and sort out the right wing we have had Hughes, Jarrett, Etuhu, McVeigh, Henderson and Johansson play out there.

Because of Safri missing games we have played and signed, Etuhu, Jarrett, Robinson, Jarvis, Charlton there.

I think you can see that its only the youngsters that have not been given a chance and that is my only gripe - but saying that with expectations and pressure high would you take a risk on the untested to try and get you 1st or 2nd?

It would be interesting to see what the asking price is for Kris Commons now as apposed to the amount being banded about last season.

People are also more likely to listen to realistic offers from us now - I am sure that had we not just have been relegated Etuhu and Hughes would have been cheaper. But that is part and parcel of the game. I still think that they were about going rate for players in the prime of their career. You have to remember that Holt wanted to leave Scotland and was into the last year of his contract.

There was an article on the pinkun some time ago stating what had happened to all of the players that we could have had or missed out on - I seem to remember it basically suggesting we were better off without the majority of them who like Stone have spent a season injured.
[/quote]

all i would say is with better management Eddy would have sorted the right back slot before a player had been signed. We have not been forced to get rid of many players bar Francis and Helveg. Even Mackay would have done a job if not so wastefully sold and replaced by a 5''8" centre half.

Ian Dowie had to lose routledge in the summer arguably his second best player.

You mention Southampton, lets put it like this at one point in the transfer window positions 1,2,3,5,6,9,10 were vacant. More or less the whole squad had to be sold due to wages.

You mention Hughes and Etuhu, well it doesnt take an idiot to see that these are average at best performers in this division, with hughes showing extremely poor ability levels and Etuhu having an attituded problem. I also feel he is also a poor ability player (looks can be deceiving judt because he is big, black and strong does not make him Patrick Viera) You mention Jarvis, arpart from 1 sub appearance he hasnt played central midfield.

You list a pleothora of players out on the right wing not one of which is a right winger!!! You also forget to mention that Thorne started his norwich career in that position...

you mention warnock - well a lot of their fickle fans moan about him, however we did make it to the premiership and due to extremely poor managerial judgements have failed to improve on promotion. In fact even tho the squad look better on paper the managemenmt just cannot get them playing as a team or with any spirit.

you talk of 10th 7th and 8th, or 14th a few weeks back. However we have spent a total of zero weeks in the top 6. none, zero, nought, 0. Worthy had Huckerby and Ashton mostly fit, Ashton on his own shot crewe into the play-off places, when he left they won a single game on the last game of the season. Forest had huckerby shoot them to the play-offs, they got relegated the following season after he left.

as for a late run, well it is possible and if we beat leads saturday the fans i am sure will be up for it. I cant see us making it as we are still playing utter crap, we had a no show 2 games ago that seams long gone with all the stuff going on inbetween.

I hope munby and co realise what they are doing setting the meeting up monday, another no-show and they could end up with more egg on there faces just like skipper

ZLF · March 9, 2006

Its interesting that people will accept the average although refuse to back the team or support...

I think the key thing is the performances rather than the results - and at the end of the day the results are all that is reflected in these stats. Given the number of injuries and the shockingly small midfield squad at the start of the season defeats would have been palatable had the passion and effort been evident in the players - the number of no shows is far too high and even the victories have rarely been good. I still think our best performance was against Reading at home - where we lost but put in the one decent consistent performance of the season so far.

I remember (although can''t find it) a post on here at the beggining asking what peoples idea of success would be for this season, most said the play-offs a couple said automatic promotion. I''m sure I said at the time play-offs is more realistic.

I too remember that post and I think its the one FilletTheFishWife started and since re-found but had been corrupted; your recall is correct in that most were demanding an auto slot. My measure of success was play offs would be a good season and 7/8th passable and below that not good enough.

My opinion remains and given worthys ''no excuses'' and ''no more players needed because of the quality in the squad'' comments pre season despite numerous concerns on the midfield department in particular still feel below 8th is sackable. I am firmer in that opinion now purely because the level of performances from what I still think is a competetive squad have been exceedingly poor due to a tactical apporach that fails to get the best or play to the strengths of our players - Earnie is a current example of a talented player unsuited to our style and so a weak link in the team; our play should focus on getting the right type of pass to him from midfield and from wide areas.

Stats only ever tell part of the story - but as they stand they clearly support stability for a season at least...

chicken · March 9, 2006

[quote user="ZippersLeftFoot"]

As I said there are other influences and length of time at a club is also pertinent as wellas squaad turn over and financial situation. On the stats yellow R did you factor in clubs relegated who changed manager before the end of the season - McCarthy was appointed mid season in relegation with Sunderland I think and took them up two years later, yet had peter reid(?) still been in charge as the manager starting the season would the outcome be the same?

Without a doubt there is a clear, strong case for stability - but as with town and Burley/Royle teams can become more competeitve with a change of manager too...

As always there are stats, damn stats and lies! Its the analysis and going beneath the surface that adds real understanding.

[/quote]Actually McCarthy was the third manager that season, Wilkinson having been in charge before him I believe. Infact I think he only had a handful of games that season - when the writing was already on the wall. The thing is with Ipswich is that they have lost their competativeness due to spending money unwisely. Fenidi who? A goalkeeper possibly worse than our very own Mr Marshal.They are competative now because of more than just Royle but because they have to be or they would be bust. They have the kids having a crack at it not through choice but because they have nothing else.But hey my belief is that things could be better but they are not anywhere near as bad as some of the hype is making things out to be.

chicken · March 10, 2006

[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="chicken"][quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"]

so you are saying the average position for those clubs who keep their manager is 6th and we are 10th at the moment with some difficult matches to come, so we are going to help drag that avearge down. Worthy is failing miserably on that score.

Also the other worrying stat was the only two clubs to subsequently go up the next season after failing to make the play-offs were boro and blackburn or otherwise put Steve Gibson''s Millions and Jack Walkers millions.

The mould is there to be broken (not that we are showing any signs of it at the moment) suffice to say that worthy has failed miserably this season when he held all the aces (well 2 of them at least in Huckerby and Ashton).

INEPT

[/quote]I''m not sure. 10th and not that far off 7th or 8th. Squad change would be another interesting factor. How many first team players did we loose in the summer?Svensson, Helveg, Jonson, Edworthy, Holt plus Mulryne. When your squad is rarely bigger than 25 with four keepers.Its interesting that people will accept the average although refuse to back the team or support it whilst it still has a chance of finnishing somewhere a lot closer to 6th. Also if you look at the average - I think you will find that we are four places off it whilst Southampton are where?The fact of the matter is Preston have played one of their games in hand and got a point from it. They are now 7 points clear of us with two games in hand. That means that they are on the same sort of form as Crystal palace who are ten points ahead with only one game in hand. I am not ruling out a late surge - but that would require belief and support from the fans and I can''t see that happening at the moment.As always you can see what you want to in stats as some how the outers still see something that should suggest Worthington should go. All I will say is how many years has it taken Warnock? And he is still struggling to get there! He is seen thoughout the leagues as one of the best managers out there yet you never see Sheff Utd complain about missing out after throwing it away so many times!As I have said before I don''t think it is entirely down to Worthington - I think expectations were high and perhaps not realistic.I remember (although can''t find it) a post on here at the beggining asking what peoples idea of success would be for this season, most said the play-offs a couple said automatic promotion. I''m sure I said at the time play-offs is more realistic.Please note that I am not saying that this is not at least partly down to Worthington but just that its not entirely his fault. We have not had a chance to play our first choice front two especially now half is no longer here - McKenzie and Ashton. Safri has been in and out of the side with injury and the African Nations Cup. Shackell has been injured - so many factors to bring in to consider.The first choice 11 this year would have ideally looked like this: GreenLuis-Jean Shackell Docherty DruryMarney Hughes Safri Huckerby McKenzie AshtonAn interesting point would be to see how many times that team played and what the results were! In an attempt to get the right back position sorted out we have seen Colin, Hughes and Fleming played there.In an attempt to try and sort out the right wing we have had Hughes, Jarrett, Etuhu, McVeigh, Henderson and Johansson play out there.Because of Safri missing games we have played and signed, Etuhu, Jarrett, Robinson, Jarvis, Charlton there.I think you can see that its only the youngsters that have not been given a chance and that is my only gripe - but saying that with expectations and pressure high would you take a risk on the untested to try and get you 1st or 2nd?It would be interesting to see what the asking price is for Kris Commons now as apposed to the amount being banded about last season.People are also more likely to listen to realistic offers from us now - I am sure that had we not just have been relegated Etuhu and Hughes would have been cheaper. But that is part and parcel of the game. I still think that they were about going rate for players in the prime of their career. You have to remember that Holt wanted to leave Scotland and was into the last year of his contract.There was an article on the pinkun some time ago stating what had happened to all of the players that we could have had or missed out on - I seem to remember it basically suggesting we were better off without the majority of them who like Stone have spent a season injured.[/quote]