Games left against the top half

[ricardo 8,033]

Norwich          5             all at homeDerby              5             3 at home   2 awayBoro                7            2 at home  5 awayWatford           6            3 at home  3 awayBournemth      5           3 at home  2 awayIpswich            8           3 at home  5 away

[Crabbycanary3 994]

As David Coleman once said

"Interesting, very interesting"!

[morty 0]

All slotting into place it seems, it''s destiny.

[The Phantom 0]

Would be interested in your view Ricardo taking into account current form what you think the points each team will earn from these games

[FCC 94]

Wolves and Forest in good form, could well be six from eight over the last few weeks.

Hoping we won''t need anything from that last game against Fulham though.

[morty 0]

Wolves are going very well, definitely looking like the side to make a late run.

[ricardo 8,033]

[quote user="Hopeful Canary"]Would be interested in your view Ricardo taking into account current form what you think the points each team will earn from these games[/quote]It''s almost impossible to say.What is becoming clear however is that my target of 85/86 points is looking an ever more likely total for an auto spot.

[Petriix 3,214]

This got me thinking because I was not sure if home games are necessarily better for us given that our home form (over the course of the season) has been comparatively poor. I did a little bit too much thinking about it and came up with an algorithm that takes into account our results against other teams home and away based upon their current position in the league and uses this to project how we will do in our remaining fixtures (adjusted to account for our current form). I got us finishing on 86 points. I did the same for the other teams above us and got a top four of:Derby 88Watford 87Norwich 86Boro 83Before today I thought it would be one or two points or even goal difference that would decide 2nd place, but I hadn''t expected Derby to slip up. Now it looks like things could be very tight between the top 3. Of course things can change dramatically with only one or two unexpected results and there is no way of guessing whether any team will maintain their current form but it''s fun to play with the numbers.

[Barclay seats 4849 the 3rd 0]

Really Frank ? So why not have city top ,,, the thread was started with the info that we have an advantage of home games against the top teams .

[Petriix 3,214]

[quote]Really Frank ? So why not have city top ,,, the thread was started with the info that we have an advantage of home games against the top teams . [/quote]Like I said, I used an algorithm which takes data from all our games this season. It seems that our home form has been good against the top teams but worse against mid-table and lower teams. Our away form has been better than anyone else against top and mid-table teams but comparatively poor against bottom teams. So the stats seem to predict that we will potentially struggle against some of the lesser opposition we will face such as Fulham at home or Brighton away.

[Newton 0]

There is no way you can predict where we or any other club, will end up this season based on there performance over all the games to date - stupid prediction

Over the rest of the season momentum will be the key

The 4 teams with momentum - Norwich, Watford, Wolves & Notts Forrest

You want my opinion, stuff the stats up you re@r end = these 4 will end up in the top 6

Lets hope Norwich are in the top 2 - cant wait for tomorrow

[Shyster 0]

Looking good on paper, but this seasons'' division has been something of a clusterf*ck compared to previous campaigns.

With just six points separating the top eight and thirty odd points to play for, who can realistically say "Shiver me timbers" without sounding a bit like a pirate?

My ol'' grandad, who use to spit into the faces of innocent passers-by, once said "Life is made up of seven chapters: Chapters'' 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 & finally 7."

Who am I to question the integrity of a man who fought the 2nd World War single-handedly because he only had one arm?

[Petriix 3,214]

That''s a very kind response to my analysis, thanks. I''m not suggesting that my stats can accurately pridict the final table, just that they offer a bit of interesting insight. It will be interesting to see how close the projection is. I really think that the top 3 will be close together.

I am certain that Forest will finish outside the top 4 and almost certain they will not make the top 6 given the size of the gap at the moment. I also think you are underestimating Derby''s form.

[Crabbycanary3 994]

Time for a soft drink Shyster?

[Shyster 0]

Frank ~ "I really think that the top 3 will be close together."

lol

[SwindonCanary 457]

Don''t forget the Championship is a division where the bottom club is likely to beat the top team, there''s going to be a lot of surprises to come.  

[Petriix 3,214]

[quote user="Shyster"]Frank ~ "I really think that the top 3 will be close together."

lol[/quote]

As in only separated by a couple of points as opposed to the top team being 5 or 6 clear; muppet :-)

[The Phantom 0]

One thing I am almost sure of is that the 6 teams who earn the most points will finish in the top 6 places. Fact. Other fact is automatic requires 85 points as Ricardo says so. fact

[Barclay seats 4849 the 3rd 0]

[quote user="Shyster"]Looking good on paper, but this seasons'' division has been something of a clusterf*ck compared to previous campaigns.

With just six points separating the top eight and thirty odd points to play for, who can realistically say "Shiver me timbers" without sounding a bit like a pirate?

My ol'' grandad, who use to spit into the faces of innocent passers-by, once said "Life is made up of seven chapters: Chapters'' 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 & finally 7."

Who am I to question the integrity of a man who fought the 2nd World War single-handedly because he only had one arm?[/quote]

Liking the sound of your grandad Shyster ! 😀