Betting odds without QPR available

[BlyBlyBabes 0]

I see that 3 bookies are offering Championship odds on 4 clubs EXCLUDING QPR.

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/w-o-qpr

 

Very interesting.

 

OTBC

[Dr. Ink 0]

Because effectively they are already up! Their spies in the FA will already know their punishment will just be a paltry fine from Ecclestones billions.

[Canarygeorge 0]

Dr. Ink wrote.

"Because effectively they are already up! Their spies in the FA will already know their punishment will just be a paltry fine from Ecclestones billions."

Not necessarily. Q.P.R. could still be deducted enough points to put them out of the frame (unlikely, i know) and those odds are still for whoever finishes highest, whatever happens to Q.P.R.

[Making Plans 957]

I think you''ll find that this is called "Betting Without The Favourite" - this simply done to make the odds of the others more attractive & it''s common practice. It has nothing to do with anything the bookies know about what might or might not happen to the investigation into QPR.

If you look at the "Winner" & "Promotion" categories on the same site you''ll see that QPR are generally 1/33 to win the league & gernerally 1/200 to get promotion. At those odds I''d say they''re pretty well nailed on.

[nutty nigel 7,902]

The odds are interesting though.

 

25/1 Swansea.Who celebrated like they were already promoted when they beat us just over a week ago.

 

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 4,615]

This has absolutely nothing to do with their FA hearing.For example: at the start of the season, there was Premier League betting without Man Utd and Chelsea, and also a separate market without all of the ''big four''.As has been said, this is commonplace. When a certain team/person is quite obviously the front runner by a distance, then this market is regularly offered by the bookies.

[Making Plans 957]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]

The odds are interesting though. 25/1 Swansea.Who celebrated like they were already promoted when they beat us just over a week ago.

[/quote]

Those odds are not very generous or realistic. For Swansea to get 2nd (a) they have to win all of their last 4 games & (b) Norwich, Cardiff & Reading all have to screw up big time. I''d say the chances of all that happening are more like 100/1.

[nutty nigel 7,902]

[quote user="Making Plans"][quote user="nutty nigel"]

The odds are interesting though. 25/1 Swansea.Who celebrated like they were already promoted when they beat us just over a week ago.

[/quote]

Those odds are not very generous or realistic. For Swansea to get 2nd (a) they have to win all of their last 4 games & (b) Norwich, Cardiff & Reading all have to screw up big time. I''d say the chances of all that happening are more like 100/1.

[/quote]

When the big bookies offer you odds they are never generous or realistic. Our six homes on Saturday paid over £115 for the academy. At the odds offered by Boyle Sports the payout would have been only £72.

 

In this case none of the prices are generous or realistic. What would you say were the true odds for Cardiff, Norwich and Reading?

 

I reckon the unlikeliest part of your equation is (a). Cardiff, Norwich and Reading have got less than two points per game all season so to better that but drop still dropping 4 would not really be screwing up bigtime.

 

 

[Making Plans 957]

Even if Cardiff, Norwich & Reading each got 7 points (based on your season average of less than 2 per game) from the last 4 games then Swansea would still need 4 wins out of 4 to equal Cardiff on points (82) and on top of that Cardiff currently have a +6 goal difference on Swansea.

So, if Swansea have averaged less than 2 points per game then it''s unlikely, based on your logic, that they would average 3 points per game (i.e. 4 wins) from their last 4 games. On top of that, in the process Swansea would need to improve their goal difference on Cardiff by 7 goals. (almost 2 goals per game)

[nutty nigel 7,902]

[quote user="Making Plans"]

Even if Cardiff, Norwich & Reading each got 7 points (based on your season average of less than 2 per game) from the last 4 games then Swansea would still need 4 wins out of 4 to equal Cardiff on points (82) and on top of that Cardiff currently have a +6 goal difference on Swansea.

So, if Swansea have averaged less than 2 points per game then it''s unlikely, based on your logic, that they would average 3 points per game (i.e. 4 wins) from their last 4 games. On top of that, in the process Swansea would need to improve their goal difference on Cardiff by 7 goals. (almost 2 goals per game)

[/quote]

 

Which is exactly why I said (a) in your equation, ie Swansea winning all their games, was the unlikliest part.

 

I reckon none of the prices offered are realistic. If you think the true odds of Swansea are nearer 100/1 what would you consider the true odds of Cardiff, Norwich and Reading?