Boring Stats re: Promotion

[Stephen Frys Evil Twin 0]

Had a quiet lunchtime so thought I''d do a bit of research.

In the last ten seasons the top three sides in League One (and it''s previous iterations) have finished with the following number of points:

-----------------------Points
Year-----1st---2nd--3rd
99-00 -- 91 -- 88 -- 85
00-01 -- 93 -- 84 -- 83
01-02 -- 90 -- 84 -- 83
02-03 - 100 - 86 -- 83
03-04 -- 90 -- 83 -- 82
04-05 -- 98 -- 86 -- 79
05-06 -- 82 -- 79 -- 76
06-07 -- 91 -- 85 -- 83
07-08 -- 92 -- 82 -- 80
08-09 -- 96 -- 89 -- 87

Which gives on average:

------Points
1st-----2nd----3rd
92.3 - 85.3 - 82.4

Given that we currently have 66 points from 31 games, we have 15 games left to score:

27 points to exceed an average 1st place finish - 1.80ppg
20 points for an average 2nd place finish - 1.33ppg
and 17 points or more to exceed an average 3rd place finish - 1.13ppg

The highest number of points required in the last ten years to acheive a top two finish is 89, so 24 points to exceed that would be 1.6ppg.

Basically, we''re going up cos 8 of our last 15 games are against lower-half teams so that could equate 24 points there and then.

Easy.

[Wembley_Canary 0]

Nice work but I think this was discussed last week.

[Stephen Frys Evil Twin 0]

Was it?

Oh.

[7rew 0]

Our season form is for 98 points and 99 goals from 46 matches.

Is it just me that would find that more depressing than say 95/95?

[Haggerdoo 6]

We don''t even want to consider 3rd place and the play off lottery - let''s aim for an automatic place

[Bill 1,788]

it''s quite a measure of where we are that we could play the next 15 games in relegation form and yet still automatically go up !

We need now to be looking for 100 points and 100 hundred goals

Holt to be top club scorer and any other record going.

There will never be another season like this for quite a while so lets dream all we can

Because that is what being a football fan is all about.

[Barclay hero 0]

[quote user="7rew"]Our season form is for 98 points and 99 goals from 46 matches. Is it just me that would find that more depressing than say 95/95?[/quote]

Whys that? 

[Titch 0]

[quote user="City1st"]it''s quite a measure of where we are that we could play the next 15 games in relegation form and yet still automatically go up !

We need now to be looking for 100 points and 100 hundred goals

Holt to be top club scorer and any other record going.

There will never be another season like this for quite a while so lets dream all we can

Because that is what being a football fan is all about.[/quote]No team in the top 5 is outplaying other teams week in/week out at the moment and considering Millwall was our first loss since Leeds, far from relegation form my friend :)Not playing that well at the moment, sure, but all teams go through it - in the last 18 games we are still one of the best teams in the country stats wise.Championship here we come again :)

[Mister Chops 7]

[quote user="7rew"]Our season form is for 98 points and 99 goals from 46 matches. Is it just me that would find that more depressing than say 95/95?[/quote]I don''t care how many points we get as long as we get automatically promoted.  Why would more points and more goals = more depression? Are you a binner?

[Bill 1,788]

Fuzzy logic posts-

" No team in the top 5 is outplaying other teams week in/week out at the moment and considering Millwall was our first loss since Leeds, far from relegation form my friend " eh ?

Who said we were in relegation form ? Did I ?

I think you need to read my post again, or perhaps again after that.

Or simply

We have so many points at this stage in the season that we could play so badly (ie relegation form) over the next 15 games and still qualify for automatic promotion.

Even simpler -

we get 17 points from our next 15 games and still COULD go up automatically - that, if averaged over a season, would see us relegated

Even more simple -

we could play as badly as the binners and yet still be automatically promoted

[Jem 0]

[quote user="City1st"]

We need now to be looking for 100 points and 100 hundred goals

[/quote]

100 hundred goals???? that would be 10,000 then - We only need to score 662.2 per game for the next 15 games and we hit your target!!!!

[Titch 0]

[quote user="City1st"]Fuzzy logic posts-

" No team in the top 5 is outplaying other teams week in/week out at the moment and considering Millwall was our first loss since Leeds, far from relegation form my friend " eh ?

Who said we were in relegation form ? Did I ?

I think you need to read my post again, or perhaps again after that.

Or simply

We have so many points at this stage in the season that we could play so badly (ie relegation form) over the next 15 games and still qualify for automatic promotion.

Even simpler -

we get 17 points from our next 15 games and still COULD go up automatically - that, if averaged over a season, would see us relegated

Even more simple -

we could play as badly as the binners and yet still be automatically promoted[/quote]No need to get sacarstic/narky :)

[Largey 0]

I think the top 3 will be above average this season, I''d say we are looking at 85 - 90 points to assure 2nd place.