First Wizard 0 Posted February 1, 2007 In the past, 50 points was considered by many to be a safe total against relegation. Do you agree?Okay, we''re on 34 at at present, so we still need another 16 (you can tell I went to school) so can we get them?.Its Leeds Saturday followed by Luton away, so hopefully there''s 4 points, but after then...............We need 5 wins and a draw if you accept the 50 points rule, sounds easy doesn ''t it?.Can we reach safety?. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginja 26 Posted February 1, 2007 On average from the last 14 seasons the minimum points to avoid relegation would be to get over 47.9 points but of course there have been exceptions in that time the worst being 1995-96 where millwall got relegated on 52 point and Swindon escaped relegation on only 48 points. Also out of the last 14 seasons only four of those had teams which went down with 50 points or more and in most cases it was on goal difference. With 17 games left we only need to average 1.06 points a game, so i think as things currently stand I''m quietly optimistic that we can survive comfortably, I also hope that grant is still looking to get another loan signing in for the defence that would be my plan anyway. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
First Wizard 0 Posted February 1, 2007 [quote user="UEA Canary"]On average from the last 14 seasons the minimum points to avoid relegation would be to get over 47.9 points but of course there have been exceptions in that time the worst being 1995-96 where millwall got relegated on 52 point and Swindon escaped relegation on only 48 points. Also out of the last 14 seasons only four of those had teams which went down with 50 points or more and in most cases it was on goal difference. With 17 games left we only need to average 1.06 points a game, so i think as things currently stand I''m quietly optimistic that we can survive comfortably, I also hope that grant is still looking to get another loan signing in for the defence that would be my plan anyway. [/quote]Thanks for that UEA, you''ve made me a little more oppto thingy with your detailed report.And that doesn''t happen often!.[;)] Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Smudger 0 Posted February 1, 2007 I think the points total to stay up this season will be considerably lower than in previous years...Look at our remaining fixtures though Wiz... I think you are very optomistic giving us 4 points from Leeds & Luton.. lets see how you feel after them two games shall we???With the exception of Ipswich at home and Sheff Weds away (last game of the season) all the teams we have to play are either in the relegation dogfight with us or challenging for promotion...I honestly can''t see us getting any more than 10 points between now and the end of the season.... I think a draw would be a very good result for us indeed against Leeds on Saturday....Do you think that approximately 44 points will be enough to keep us up???? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
First Wizard 0 Posted February 1, 2007 [quote user="Smudger"] Do you think that approximately 44 points will be enough to keep us up????[/quote]No I don''t mate.I''m hoping that a decent striker might come in on loan, athough that should have been sorted yesterday!.Damn!, I all worred again now.And that does happen often! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Smudger 0 Posted February 1, 2007 [quote user="1st Wizard"][quote user="Smudger"] Do you think that approximately 44 points will be enough to keep us up????[/quote]No I don''t mate.I''m hoping that a decent striker might come in on loan, athough that should have been sorted yesterday!.Damn!, I all worred again now.And that does happen often![/quote]damn sorry to spoil your briefly new found optimism Wiz my friend... What kind of striker is now going to be available to us on loan however? I feel we need somebody of real quality plus a couple of defenders to make the difference required!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginja 26 Posted February 1, 2007 [quote user="Smudger"]I think the points total to stay up this season will be considerably lower than in previous years...Look at our remaining fixtures though Wiz... I think you are very optomistic giving us 4 points from Leeds & Luton.. lets see how you feel after them two games shall we???With the exception of Ipswich at home and Sheff Weds away (last game of the season) all the teams we have to play are either in the relegation dogfight with us or challenging for promotion...I honestly can''t see us getting any more than 10 points between now and the end of the season.... I think a draw would be a very good result for us indeed against Leeds on Saturday....Do you think that approximately 44 points will be enough to keep us up????[/quote]In the last 14 seasons 44 points has kept nobody up, so I somehow doubt it will keep us up [:(] although last season if we had got 44 we would have stayed up. I think we can beat leeds in fact IMO we must beat leeds and if we do I think it could put us back on the right track. Look on the bright side leeds are facing their own injury crisis and will be without David HealyBtw wiz I made a bit of an error before, I took an average of all the teams the finished 22nd when I should have taken an average of the teams who just escaped relegation in 21st place, which is in fact 49.5 so technically yes 50 points should be enough to survive but the bigger question is can we get that many points well look at it this way if we draw 10 games and win 2 thats enough so I think we''ve got a good chance, anyway here''s my prediction for the rest of the season.Norwich v Leeds - WLuton v Norwich - DPreston v Norwich - LNorwich v Coventry - WBarnsley v Norwich - WNorwich v Derby - LCardiff v Norwich - LNorwich v Birmingham - DNorwich v Stoke - DColchester v Norwich - LHull v Norwich - DNorwich v West Brom - LLeicester v Norwich - DNorwich v Ipswich -WNorwich v Southampton - WSheff Wed v Norwich - W Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,395 Posted February 1, 2007 [quote user="Smudger"]I think the points total to stay up this season will be considerably lower than in previous years...Look at our remaining fixtures though Wiz... I think you are very optomistic giving us 4 points from Leeds & Luton.. lets see how you feel after them two games shall we???With the exception of Ipswich at home and Sheff Weds away (last game of the season) all the teams we have to play are either in the relegation dogfight with us or challenging for promotion...I honestly can''t see us getting any more than 10 points between now and the end of the season.... I think a draw would be a very good result for us indeed against Leeds on Saturday....Do you think that approximately 44 points will be enough to keep us up????[/quote]Finally Sudger says something I agree with. Yes the points total to stay up is likely to be lower than in recent years and as always points in the bag are better than games in hand. Looking at the table, we have the points and those below have also played a game more. I stick with my forecast of last month, 15th to 17th with a points total in the low to mid 50''s. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
First Wizard 0 Posted February 1, 2007 If its possible, I agree and disagree with you UEA.I thnk Ipswich will beat us (kill the heritic!) but I believe we can beat Hull, likewise Sheff Wed, but a draw against Birmingham seems a tall order.One things for sure though , its not going to be a dull end to the season is it?. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Evil Monkey 52 Posted February 1, 2007 Since I, and others, spend enough time slating you, Wiz, for "another miserable repetative thread", I feel it''s only fair to compliment you on a very good and interesting thread that has so far refused to fall into bickering and fighting! I like this one... [:)]I believe we can do it, and pretty much agree with UEA Canary''s list, though I''ll side with Wiz on the Brum result being a tall order. Though with a new, strong midfield, and a couple more loan signings to score goals and shore up the defence, I wonder whether we can do better than 15th and maybe push for 10th-12th? on paper, of course... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginja 26 Posted February 1, 2007 [quote user="1st Wizard"]If its possible, I agree and disagree with you UEA.I thnk Ipswich will beat us (kill the heritic!) but I believe we can beat Hull, likewise Sheff Wed, but a draw against Birmingham seems a tall order.One things for sure though , its not going to be a dull end to the season is it?.[/quote]Well we''ve already beaten Birmingham away and put in a good performance at the time, I see no reason why we can''t do the same again and get at least a draw.It''s certainly going to be an interesting few months, but for all the wrong reasons I suspect. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tumbleweed 106 Posted February 1, 2007 Please God let it be a dull end to the season Wiz.............!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Shaun Lawson 0 Posted February 1, 2007 I''m worried, and can see things getting worse; and whatever happens, our lowest finish in 47 years is most definitely looming (ie. below 16th). Here''s my predictions, for what they''re worth:Leeds United (h) D 0-0Luton Town (a) L 0-2Preston North End (a) L 0-2Coventry City (h) W 2-1Barnsley (a) D 1-1Derby County (h) W 1-0Cardiff City (a) L 1-2Birmingham City (h) L 0-2Stoke City (h) D 0-0Colchester United (a) L 1-3Hull City (a) D 1-1West Bromwich Albion (h) L 1-3Leicester City (a) D 0-0Ipswich Town (h) W 3-1Southampton (h) W 2-1Sheffield Wednesday (a) L 0-1But don''t forget (as UEA has) the yet to be rescheduled:Burnley (a) L 0-2Which''ll leave us on 51 points, and safe - but not by much. Another prediction: I reckon 48 points will prove the cutoff point: 49 depending on goal difference. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Alex Moss 2,165 Posted February 1, 2007 We''re NOT going down, stop entertaining the idea, I seriously think we''ll be closer to play offs rather than relegation come the end of the season. Just an optimistic slant....OTBC Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grant the Cat 0 Posted February 1, 2007 Allow me...Norwich v Leeds - W 4-3Luton v Norwich - L 2-0Preston v Norwich - L 4-0Norwich v Coventry - D 1-1Barnsley v Norwich - D 1-1Norwich v Derby - W 1-0Cardiff v Norwich - L 3-2Norwich v Birmingham - L 2-1Norwich v Stoke - W 2-1Colchester v Norwich - L 3-0Hull v Norwich - D 2-2Norwich v West Brom - D 1-1Leicester v Norwich - D 1-1Norwich v Ipswich -W 2-1Norwich v Southampton - D 2-2Sheff Wed v Norwich - L 2-1Not forgetting a defeat at burnley!My maths says thats another 18 points, meaning 52 points which says beating Ipswich could mean party time!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Smudger 0 Posted February 1, 2007 [quote user="jurgen gussett"]Allow me...Norwich v Leeds - W 4-3Luton v Norwich - L 2-0Preston v Norwich - L 4-0Norwich v Coventry - D 1-1Barnsley v Norwich - D 1-1Norwich v Derby - W 1-0Cardiff v Norwich - L 3-2Norwich v Birmingham - L 2-1Norwich v Stoke - W 2-1Colchester v Norwich - L 3-0Hull v Norwich - D 2-2Norwich v West Brom - D 1-1Leicester v Norwich - D 1-1Norwich v Ipswich -W 2-1Norwich v Southampton - D 2-2Sheff Wed v Norwich - L 2-1Not forgetting a defeat at burnley!My maths says thats another 18 points, meaning 52 points which says beating Ipswich could mean party time!![/quote]or on the other hand I think that the Scum could well come to Carrow Road looking to seal our fate and send us down??? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
