7/10 - Work-rate top drawer as always.....BUT

[Woodman 92]

"Welcome canarymoon by the way, good to see a football-based new post even if not everyone will agree with you."

Nice to have new posters, but there''s no need for them to give insults towards players. By all means criticise them - or more specifically, state your case for why you don''t think they''re not up to the job if that''s how you feel, but calling someone a name is just childish.

[Canarymoon 0]

Hey SonyC!! Thanks!

By default, Jerome would probably start but based on some of the comments on how Watkins played up front against Brentford, it''s worth giving him a whirl.

It would also be nice to See Abrahams or Fonkeu on the bench. If Maddison can perform at his age so can they.

I''d probably play 5 at the back tonight. Trybul CDM and then 3 in front of him who can tuck in when we defend - Wildschut, Maddison, Murphy. This would also encourage better movement with a diamond. I''d also like to see Klose carry the ball out from the back more, knowing he has two behind him.

[Baldyboy 0]

Wow! You call Jerome a donkey because he doesn’t score enough and yet again say Bamford was better because he had more shots on target 😂 Just how many of those shots on target went in the net, again it’s none so how you can call Jerome a donkey compared to Bamford is absolutely ridiculous! I suppose you think Antoine Sibierski was great compared to Jerome too 😂😂

[Canarymoon 0]

Bamford has better movement than Jerome. Fact

Jerome scored more goals per minutes played. Fact

Bamford had more shots on target per minutes played. Fact

Both players are over half as effective as our alternative strikers over the last 3 seasons. Fact

Bamford would make Wes more effective, due to his better movement. Fact

I aspire to have better strikers than Bamford and Jerome. Fact

Cameron Jerome couldn''t hit a cows arse with a banjo. I''d be interested to see.

Cameron is a donkey. Untrue, He''s a human.

[FenwayFrank 2,459]

Canarymoon is an ex poster, not a new one I reckon

[Baldyboy 0]

[quote user="Canarymoon"]Bamford has better movement than Jerome. Fact

Jerome scored more goals per minutes played. Fact

Bamford had more shots on target per minutes played. Fact

Both players are over half as effective as our alternative strikers over the last 3 seasons. Fact

Bamford would make Wes more effective, due to his better movement. Fact

I aspire to have better strikers than Bamford and Jerome. Fact

Cameron Jerome couldn''t hit a cows arse with a banjo. I''d be interested to see.

Cameron is a donkey. Untrue, He''s a human.[/quote]

BAMFORD DIDN’T SCORE, FACT! But you’d rather have him than Jerome? The man who actually showed Bamford how to score at Wembley, FACT!

YOU ARE AN IDIOT, FACT!

[Canarymoon 0]

Jerome already missed two decent chances.

[Baldyboy 0]

Should have picked Bamford then!

[The Great Mass Debater 1,090]

[quote user="king canary"]What do you mean by conversion to chances?

This season it is clear that Oliveria''s would be much higher- he''s scored 5 goals to Jerome''s 1 so for it to not be Nelson would have to have taken 5 times as many shots which he hasn''t.

According to Squawka Jerome has a chance conversion rate of about 6%, while Nelson is at about 22%, which I guess is pretty decent.[/quote]

What might help the argument would be the Opta stat of ''Expected Goals. Its an interesting concept, as this BBC article outlines (Harry Kane vs Rooney being particularly interesting reading)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40699431

Unfortunately I think this is a Premier League only stat

[king canary 7,606]

It isn''t a Premier League only stat but it also doesn''t differentiate between the players on the end of the chances. All it would really tell you is how good the chances for Jerome and Nelson have been in comparison.

[The Great Mass Debater 1,090]

[quote user="Capt. Pants"]Poor old CJ. Looks like we''ve found another scapegoat.Good managers will be ahead of the curve. Farke needs to notice that the opposition have sussed out plan B and a plan C is required. Our lack of goals can''t be totally blamed on CJ, it''s the turgid sideways passing and slow build up that give the opposition defence so much time to get organised. [/quote]

This was always the problem under Hughton. Set-up to play like a counter-attacking side with paucity of possession, but then had a slow-building attack, nullifying the advantage of catching the opposition out of position/defensive shape by allowing them all the time in the world to re-shape/organise. Effective counter-attacking relies on quick direct play, something Lambert had us doing extremely effectively but that Hughton drilled out of them.

Out of interest, can anyone who has followed them this season comment on Hughton''s approach this season with Brighton? Has he taken a similar approach or is he doing it differently with them?

[The Great Mass Debater 1,090]

[quote user="king canary"]It isn''t a Premier League only stat but it also doesn''t differentiate between the players on the end of the chances. All it would really tell you is how good the chances for Jerome and Nelson have been in comparison.[/quote]

Do we have any stats available between the two? For instance we''re talking about goals, but what if Jerome''s chances have been far harder to score from. Does that mean Jerome has the harder job (maybe played more as a defensive forward against superior opposition away for instance, where perhaps his workrate is more useful and chances less forthcoming) or does it reveal that Jerome just isnt getting into the same positions as Oliveira?

Id be very interested to see some similar data for RvW. and perhaps most heplpfully his time at Sporting Lisbon. Id imagine that as a goal poacher type, you would expect him to have quite a high degree of expected goals from the chances that came his way. He scored a lot of goals in that league, but was he also expected to?

For a club like Norwich in the Premier League, players who do better than their expected goals are more useful. We cant afford to have players than simply put something away that''s been put on a plate for them (which is the type of player I expect RvW is) as a team like ours will always be up against it in the Premier League and our strikers will need to be able to carve things out to be successful

[king canary 7,606]

@Great Mass Debater

I''d take a look at this twitter account- https://twitter.com/NorwichFCStats

They put some excellent, detailed stats up but not 100% sure where they get them.

[The Great Mass Debater 1,090]

Interesting...

https://experimental361.com/2017/10/29/attack-breakdowns-championship-29-oct-2017/

Club-by-club graphics

Norwich haven’t had Nelson Oliveira on the pitch as much as they’d have liked this season but he’s lethal when he does appear. No other club has the same extent of reliance on one player, although Gary Hooper is clearly the main man at Sheff Wed, while Kenneth Zohore at Cardiff and Tom Bradshaw at Barnsley also enjoy plenty of service

[The Great Mass Debater 1,090]

[quote user="king canary"]@Great Mass Debater

I''d take a look at this twitter account- https://twitter.com/NorwichFCStats

They put some excellent, detailed stats up but not 100% sure where they get them.[/quote]

Thanks, I''ll take a look. I''ve just come across experimental361.com which also has some interesting reading

[The Great Mass Debater 1,090]

[quote user="king canary"]@Great Mass Debater

I''d take a look at this twitter account- https://twitter.com/NorwichFCStats

They put some excellent, detailed stats up but not 100% sure where they get them.[/quote]

Yes, plenty of info on xG on that account, thanks

[The Great Mass Debater 1,090]

https://experimental361.com/2017/10/29/attack-breakdowns-championship-29-oct-2017/#jp-carousel-13995

This graphic illustrates the Oliveira debate perfectly in terms of xG

[king canary 7,606]

Yes- essentially we are ridiculously reliant on Nelson for goals. And he didn''t even start the first couple of weeks.

[The Great Mass Debater 1,090]

For anyone interested, this from http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk/2014/ on RvW

Player Team Mins >60 MP 0-59 MP 0 MP xGD +Team (xGD) GD +Team (GD

van Wolfswinkel NOR 1192 13 8 10 -0.16 0.23 -0.05 0.57