The Bigger Picture

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,856]

With the international breaks, the start of the Premier League this season is divided neatly into three blocks of four matches followed by an international break. We've had our first set against Liverpool (A), Newcastle (H), Chelsea (H) and West Ham (A), and our next four are against Man City (H), Burnley (A), Palace (A) and Villa (H). 

Now, realistically, what sort of points totals are par for these first two periods? 

For the first one, I'd say that Liverpool was almost a write-off, Newcastle was a game where we'd certainly target three points although the bookies/experts had it down as quite a close game, and Chelsea and West Ham were tough games from which we weren't expected to get anything but it wasn't beyond the realms of possibility. The three points that we've taken from these games is probably around par.

Now, looking at the next four, what is par? I think Man City, like Liverpool, is a game where you can't budget for anything and if we get something then it's a bonus, but the next three should all be tight games against teams that may well prove to be in and around us at the end of the season, so we need to be looking to get a few points in these games. 

But what's 'par'? I'd say three or fewer would be below par, as it means we've either lost twice or failed to win one. Four would be the absolute minimum requirement for me, five would be decent, six would be very good and seven or more would be fantastic.

The minimum requirement of four would see us on seven points after eight games which would be so-so considering we've played three of the top six, including the two who are miles ahead of everyone else.

No doubt LDC will say that I'm negative by being happy with less than 24 points after the first eight, but what about the rest of you? What sort of points total would we be happy with after the Villa game?

Edited September 3, 2019 by Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man

[wcorkcanary 4,337]

Total of 7 would be a realistic punt. Sorry Lakeyo but if we get anything from Man City i'll be amazed ( and v happy) so one win one draw and one loss from Burnley, Palace and Villa. I think those three are ' any result' games , very hard to predict. so i'll go middle of the road with them  and 4 points to add to the three we already have.

[Fuzzar 1,703]

Seems reasonable to me. We need to average a point a game over the whole season and those first 8 games are reasonably representative of the teams in the league overall.

If we can get a point away and 3 at home against the majority of our direct rivals, we should be okay. But nothing's a given, Palace and Burnley away will be really tough games against physical teams.

[Disco Dales Jockstrap 1,898]

Well my results prediction o-meter that I made at the start of the season says that we would (hopefully) have 9 points after the Villa game. However, that did include a point from West Ham, so 8 points would be the aim for me (draws against Palace and Burnley, a win against Villa).

OTBC

[Capt. Pants 4,277]

Would be delighted with 5 or more. But have a feeling it will be only 1 😞

 

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,856]

8 minutes ago, Fuzzar said:

Palace and Burnley away will be really tough games against physical teams.

Just as an aside, Palace have been a better away team than a home team for several years now.

In the last five years, they've picked up more points at home only once. They earned more points from away games three times and in the other season their home/away points totals were level.

In three of those five seasons they've been in the bottom three for home points, with finishes of 5th, 6th and 8th for away points in those three years.

So in theory, playing Palace at their place should be a less daunting prospect than facing them at home.