Badger 2,418 Posted November 5, 2018 (edited) Michael Bailey's article - at the bottom: " • For added context… In the last 10 Championship seasons, 28 teams have reached 30 points or more after 16 games – which has included NINE of the 10 title winners, 15 of the 20 teams automatically promoted and FOUR of the 10 play-off winners. Therefore of those 28 teams, NINE have missed out on promotion – three of which were Middlesbrough: 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2014-15 at the hands of Norwich at Wembley. Norwich also accounted for Cardiff’s failure in 2010-11. Reading are the only team to win the title having failed to break 30 points after 16 games (21 points, 2011-12), while Sheffield United and Bristol City both reached the early benchmark last season alongside Wolves and Cardiff, who were automatically promoted. United and City finished 10th and 11th respectively." So 19/28 (68%) of the teams reaching 30 points by this stage of the season have gained promotion. IF the past is anything to go by we have a two in three chance of getting promotion and a 1 in 3 chance of not doings so. Evidence for both the optimists and pessimists! 😀 I don't gamble, so I don't know how this translates into betting odds. Perhaps some of my risk-taking fellow supporters could enlighten me? http://www.edp24.co.uk/sport/norwich-city/sheffield-wednesday-michael-bailey-six-things-learned-buendia-farke-safety-1-5764520 Edited November 5, 2018 by Badger Inserted source of statistics 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted November 5, 2018 yep, already stuck money on when the odds were more favourable Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Badger 2,418 Posted November 5, 2018 Good luck Bill! I never gamble - I bought a lottery ticket a few times at the start and didn't even win a million once, so got put off. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Petriix 2,860 Posted November 5, 2018 We're definitely on an incredible run. (IIRC) 25 of those 30 points have come in the last 10 games. It reminds me of 2009 (I posted a thread about that) in that we also recovered from an awful start and also found ourselves behind Leeds at the top of the table. I would love to see a repetition of the remainder of that season! Crucially, we have already played the other 6 of the top 7 and only have 3 top half teams to play over the next 7 games before the fixtures reverse. The Swansea, Blackburn and Bristol City away games will be tough, but we have 3 home games against the teams currently 18th, 19th and 20th as well as 23rd placed Hull away. If we can win 5 of those 7, I would hope we would be top of the table as Leeds do not have an easy run. Our home game against Derby on 29 December could well be a top 2 clash and the Christmas period could well make or break our season. Certainly at the end of 2 February, by which time we will have played Forrest, Derby, West Brom, Sheffield Utd and Leeds for a second time, we will know if we are still in the mix. If we are then we would have a huge chance of gaining automatic promotion as the final third of the season (16 games) amazingly sees us only playing 1 of the current top 6 (Middlesbrough away) and just 4 other (currently) top half teams - all at home! Now, I know I'm getting over excited, and that the period of Christmas up to the Leeds away game will be incredibly difficult, but we do have a spectacularly gentle run in. I think we are now nailed on for automatic promotion. Feel free to trawl this thread up after we lose all of our last 8 games and finish mid table. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Badger 2,418 Posted November 5, 2018 Very brave Petriix! 😀 I am trying to contain my excitement atm but 2 in 3 chance sounds pretty good! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GenerationA47 770 Posted November 5, 2018 "Nailed on"... Am now getting sick feeling ! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chip20 69 Posted November 5, 2018 I know. It's that sickening feeling that once you are in this position it is yours to throw away. It's even harder having had it in your hand and let it slip away than it was not attaining it in the first place. It could well be a long few months from here but I am really enjoying the ride at present. Some of the football on display is a joy to behold and the attitude of the players is spot on. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Petriix 2,860 Posted November 5, 2018 1 hour ago, GenerationA47 said: "Nailed on"... Am now getting sick feeling ! Obviously nails can go rusty and fall out, especially under the weight of expectation. Also, before the season started I predicted we would finish 8th. We'll see... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,167 Posted November 5, 2018 Trying to keep me feet on the ground. We had a really bad first 5 games. Since then we’ve been outstanding winning 8 from the last 10 now I think? And you also need to remember that the defeat was very much against the run of play. the question is can we sustain it and will our style work against the lower teams who come to park the bus. Saturday will tell us more about that but last Saturday Wednesday started by conceding possession to our back 4 but changed to a more high press when we were opening them up too easily. The high press worked to keep us in check mostly until half time. Not so much after the break 🤓. also key is our squad depth and IMO we have pretty much as strong a squad as you could reasonably expect in this division. overall I’m very positive but I think it’s too early to say it’s nailed on !! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
