Ricardo's report v Arsenal

[ricardo 8,041]

Ricardo was in sombre mood on the stroll up to CR to witness our Premiership last rites. Relegation is always a hard pill to swallow how ever many times you''ve seen it but this one seemed so unnecessary and largely self inflicted.Those expecting a weakened Arsenal side to appear were to be disappointed as it looked pretty strong to me and although City dominated play for the opening quarter of an hour they were often chasing shadows thereafter. City though, were the first to threaten with Redmond looking lively down the left but the attacks were too slow to develop and apart from a couple of corners there was little profit for City.On 17 minutes Fabianski did well to turn away a goal-bound effort from Redmond and then Tetty was just too high with a right footed effort over the bar. We had seen little from Arsenal up until now but they eventually clicked into gear with some incisive passing that split the City rearguard. Ruddy saved well from Podolski and Giraud really should have opened the account when clean through only for Ruddy to somehow conjure his effort over the bar.City attacks were now few and far between but in one quick break Olsson was just wide with a low cross shot. It was noticeable how easily Arsenal found their players whilst our passes were often hurried and over hit. The kind of quality that big money can get you was clearly on show today. Just before the break Ruddy again excelled with a good save to his right from Giraud''s swirling shot.From a glance at the halftime scores it seemed there was little chance of a multi-goal turnaround even if we won so there was little disappointment from me when Ramsey despatched Girauds pass high into the top corner eight minutes after the break. Elmander and Tetty were quickly withdrawn and on came Hooper and our first look at young Lozza. He immediately did well to set Redmond up from just outside the box but anyone who has watched him all season could have predicted that his effort would fly harmlessly over the top. To their credit, City tried to come forward  but Arsenal picked them apart when they did and it was no surprise when Jenkinson touched home Gibb''s cross for a second goal..Redmond was then replaced by Elliot Bennett and the long time absentee nearly got on the scoreboard when Snoddy and Martin combined well to set him up from 12 yards only for Fabianski to save low to his right. Then the City player of the season broke through the centre but his shot was deflected wide by the keepers trailing leg. Such is the luck when you are down at the bottom. At the other end Ruddy made another decent save but in truth it all petered out to a low key ending to a low key season. Thankfully there weren''t many boo''s as we all trooped out having been long resigned to this finale.So where did it all go wrong? You merely have to look at the goals for and against to to see the reason. For a large part of the season we seemed to be just doing enough but could never get any momentum going. Every win or decent performance was followed by a set back. Injuries to key players at the wrong time, management timidity and a truly dreadful second half of the season can all be sited as evidence. I think we all expected better than this but after a dozen games the writing was on the wall and it was obvious that it would be touch and go whether we stayed up. In the end there was just not enough touch and just too much go.

[Dubai Mark 0]

Sums it all up nicely Ricardo, it had the feel of a pre season friendly at times today.

Just like to thank you for your reports over the season. 

[Phillip J Fry 0]

Who do you want as manager for next season Ricardo? 

Fantastic report by the way.

[ricardo 8,041]

[quote user="Phillip J Fry"]Who do you want as manager for next season Ricardo? 

Fantastic report by the way.

[/quote]I''d like it to be someone who has no connections to the club. None of the names on offer excite me very much.When you get relegated you need a good shakeup.We are all feeling down at the moment but come July hope will be springing again.OTBC.[Y]

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,797]

Strong rumours coming out of the sponsors lunch today that Adams would get it, but I can''t believe after that performance and set up that even our board would take the cheap option.

 

Today showed to me that tempo , that has been drillled into these players just isnt enough. Arsenal winning the ball and moving the ball forward, in comparison to us doing likewise is miles apart. We still had Howson and Tettey nailed in front of the 2 CB''s EVEN when we were two nil down and chasing the game.

 

If I see Redmond hit row Z anymore I will scream.

 

Rubbish end to a rubbish season. Need a tried and tested manager to follow Russell Martin''s mantra and make NCFC hard to play against again.

[ricardo 8,041]

[quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]

Strong rumours coming out of the sponsors lunch today that Adams would get it, but I can''t believe after that performancee and set up that even our board would take the cheap option.

 

Today showed to me that tempo , that has been drillled into these players just isnt enough. Arsenal winning the ball and moving the ball forward, in comparison to us doing likewise is miles apart. We still had Howson and Tettey nailed in front of the 2 CB''s EVEN when we were two nil down and chasing the game.

 

If I see Redmond hit row Z anymore I will scream.

 

Rubbish end to a rubbish season. Need a tried and tested manager to follow Russell Martin''s mantra and make NCFC hard to play against again.

[/quote]

It has little to do with the way they are drilled. The difference you describe seeing is the difference between three, four and five million pound players and those that cost five to ten times more. It''s hard to take but money is what makes the difference and Arsenal have lots more than us.

Next season should be a more even playing field.

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,797]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]

Strong rumours coming out of the sponsors lunch today that Adams would get it, but I can''t believe after that performancee and set up that even our board would take the cheap option.

 

Today showed to me that tempo , that has been drillled into these players just isnt enough. Arsenal winning the ball and moving the ball forward, in comparison to us doing likewise is miles apart. We still had Howson and Tettey nailed in front of the 2 CB''s EVEN when we were two nil down and chasing the game.

 

If I see Redmond hit row Z anymore I will scream.

 

Rubbish end to a rubbish season. Need a tried and tested manager to follow Russell Martin''s mantra and make NCFC hard to play against again.

[/quote] It has little to do with the way they are drilled. The difference you describe seeing is the difference between three, four and five million pound players and those that cost five to ten times more. It''s hard to take but money is what makes the difference and Arsenal have lots more than us. Next season should be a more even playing field.[/quote]

 

Except if you are Palace or Sunderland.

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]I think we all expected better than this but after a dozen games the writing was on the wall and it was obvious that it would be touch and go whether we stayed up. In the end there was just not enough touch and just too much go.[/quote]That is not what you were saying back then... It was quite clearly that Sunderland and Crystal Palace were certainties to go down.

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Phillip J Fry"]Who do you want as manager for next season Ricardo? 

Fantastic report by the way.

[/quote]I''d like it to be someone who has no connections to the club. None of the names on offer excite me very much.OTBC.[Y][/quote]Why rule someone out for having a connection with the club?  Seems very bizarre if you ask me.  Surely the best candidate is who we want.  Sadly we are now championship, I can''t remember too many foreign coaches doing well in this league - so I think we have to amend our managerial targets accordingly.

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,797]

[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="ricardo"]I think we all expected better than this but after a dozen games the writing was on the wall and it was obvious that it would be touch and go whether we stayed up. In the end there was just not enough touch and just too much go.
[/quote]

That is not what you were saying back then... It was quite clearly that Sunderland and Crystal Palace were certainties to go down.
[/quote]

 

I should point out that I hadn''t read Foghorn''s reply when I mentioned those two clubs in question. Strange that we should both pick those two.

 

The pinkun board once again proves that actually none of us really know anything, just that a few people think they do. Any one predict Sunderland resurgence? Someone told me that neither Fulham, Cardiff or Sunderland would get to 35 points.

 

Its a funny old game .

[ricardo 8,041]

I suggest you read my post Ricardo''s Early relegation predictions. You will see that we were in the bottom five after 12 games and that I correctly predicted the relegation stakes.

Three of the bottom six after 12 games will go down. We were one of them.

[YankeeCanary 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]I suggest you read my post Ricardo''s Early relegation predictions. You will see that we were in the bottom five after 12 games and that I correctly predicted the relegation stakes. Three of the bottom six after 12 games will go down. We were one of them.[/quote]

 

Come on Ricardo, with your excellent recall you know full well you have made a number of different predictions and, if enough predictions are made, one them is sure to be close to the mark. You should be better than "needing to be right." I''m sure you recall, among others, this particular prediction of yours at Christmas:

 

 "At this stage last season there were 5 teams with less than a point per game average. All three subsequently relegated teams were in this group. This year we have  WBA, Cardiff, Palace, Fulham, W Ham and Sunderland. I think it has to come from this group. IMO City, Villa and Stoke may just do enough to stay out of the mix. I would hate to be forced to have a bet in this race but my honest opinion for what it''s worth is:-

Cardiff
Palace
West Ham."

[ricardo 8,041]

[quote user="YankeeCanary"]

[quote user="ricardo"]I suggest you read my post Ricardo''s Early relegation predictions. You will see that we were in the bottom five after 12 games and that I correctly predicted the relegation stakes. Three of the bottom six after 12 games will go down. We were one of them.[/quote]

 

Come on Ricardo, with your excellent recall you know full well you have made a number of different predictions and, if enough predictions are made, one them is sure to be close to the mark. You should be better than "needing to be right." I''m sure you recall, among others, this particular prediction of yours at Christmas:

 

 "At this stage last season there were 5 teams with less than a point per game average. All three subsequently relegated teams were in this group. This year we have  WBA, Cardiff, Palace, Fulham, W Ham and Sunderland. I think it has to come from this group. IMO City, Villa and Stoke may just do enough to stay out of the mix. I would hate to be forced to have a bet in this race but my honest opinion for what it''s worth is:-CardiffPalaceWest Ham."

[/quote]

Err no Yankee, that was me giving an opinion on the situation at Xmas when we were discussing possibilities from the bottom group at that stage and as I clearly stated it was an opinion I wouldn''t want to bet on. It had nothing to do with my research that made predictions at the 12 game stage. If you read below you will see my prediction after the 12 game stage which has proved uncannily accurate once again.posted 25/11/13This is what I predicted

In 21 seasons of the Premier League

64 teams have been relegated (4 in 94/95 due to reduction in number of

clubs). Of those 64 subsequently relegated clubs 54, ( 84%) had averaged

a point a game or less after 12 matches played.In 11 of those

21 seasons all 3 subsequently relegated clubs had averaged less than a

point a game after 12 matches and in the other 10 seasons, 2 out of 3

were relegated.The teams with less than a point a game this season are:-Norwich    11 pointsW Ham     10 pointsFulham      10 pointsPalace         7 pointsSunderland  7 pointsSo

unless this season differs from every other Premiership season there is

a 100% chance of 2 of these 5 being relegated and a better than 50%

chance that all 3 will come from this group.Points to consider this season:-1. People

often say that there is always a team that drops into the relegation

positions late on. This is not born out by the facts. 84% of relegated

teams have accumulated only 12 points or less after 12 games. 2.

This season the gap to the next group of clubs, (Cardiff, Hull,Stoke

and perhaps Villa) is still very tight and 2 of them are promoted clubs

that have had unexpectedly good starts.3.

Last season Villa and Southampton had less points at this stage than we have now and both survived.4. Relegated clubs usually have the worst goal differences and in this respect its not a good omen for us.My

conclusion from this is that in May 2014 its going to be touch and go

whether we get a further season in the Premier League. At the moment all

we can be certain of is that 2 of the present bottom 5 will be playing

Championship football next season.I''ll have another look at Xmas when I feel pretty sure that I can put names to at least 2 of them with 100% certainty.

So two did indeed the 100% chance was exactly right and 2 did come from that group of 5 (us and Fulham) while Cardiff were just a point above. All in all my theory seems to have worked out very well again and as you can see my conclusion on 25th November 2013 was that it was touch and go and as I commented on my report, unfortunately for us it was more  go than touch.

[Snoots 0]

Well Ricardo, I will avoid being drawn into this minor spat and simply say thank you very much for all the time and effort you have put into your reports this season. I''m an "ex-pat" supporter so your reports after each of our home games have become a regular read for me over recent seasons and I always look out for them. I would enjoy buying you a pint of draught Peroni one day. here''s to next season. Cheers. Snoots, formerly Lord Snooty.

[YankeeCanary 0]

 

[:D][:D]

Ricardo, as we say in America, tomatoes/tomatos. One man''s opinion is another man''s prediction. In your case, you have expressed enough of both but, as most can observe, you will always revert to the one that suits. You cite your "early season prediction" but several months on as you approached Christmas, if you had conviction in your earlier "prediction" surely then you would have supported it with your opinion....but you didn''t. You changed your mind, didn''t you? Same thing with the number of points required, as I recall. It kept changing. I also recall a clear statement from you that we would not be relegated this season. Another one of your offerings was to state emphatically that Hughton would still be at Norwich in May, until you were later sure that he wouldn''t.

 

Reminds me of my dear old mother. Each year she would bet on fifteen horses in the Grand National. When the race was over she would tell anyone who would listen that she had picked the winner. The other fourteen didn''t get a mention. [:D] 

[ricardo 8,041]

[quote user="YankeeCanary"]

 

[:D][:D]

Ricardo, as we say in America, tomatoes/tomatos. One man''s opinion is another man''s prediction. In your case, you have expressed enough of both but, as most can observe, you will always revert to the one that suits. You cite your "early season prediction" but several months on as you approached Christmas, if you had conviction in your earlier "prediction" surely then you would have supported it with your opinion....but you didn''t. You changed your mind, didn''t you? Same thing with the number of points required, as I recall. It kept changing. I also recall a clear statement from you that we would not be relegated this season. Another one of your offerings was to state emphatically that Hughton would still be at Norwich in May, until you were later sure that he wouldn''t.

 

Reminds me of my dear old mother. Each year she would bet on fifteen horses in the Grand National. When the race was over she would tell anyone who would listen that she had picked the winner. The other fourteen didn''t get a mention. [:D] 

[/quote]When the evidence changes I change my mind, what do you do?

Regarding my revision of the points total it is open knowledge that before the season began I thought we would get 44 points. I amended that to 38 points at Xmas and then flirted with the possibility of 36 points due to our poor form. They were opinions based on the results as they changed and nothing to do with my 12 game theory. It''s all there in black and white should you care to look it up.This is what I said about the points totals at Xmas (Ricardo''s Xmas relegation predictions 2013/14)At Xmas last year I claimed that QPR and Reading would CERTAINLY be

relegated but that the third relegation candidate was a toss up between

Villa, Southampton and Wigan. Despite many believers in Harry Houdini, I

got that call dead right. For the third spot I thought Wigan''s

experience might save them but you can''t dodge the reaper forever so I

mark last seasons predictions as two and a third out of three.This

season because of the condensed nature of the entire bottom half of the

league I''m not yet prepared to go out on a limb with anything like the

same degree of certainty. What seems clear to me however is that 40

points won''t be needed for safety unless there are some remarkable

results when bottom half play top half. It doesn''t seem likely to me and

I now feel that safety could be 36 points or even lower. If things

continue as they are then between 5 and 7 teams won''t get 40 points.

I also said this further down the threadUnlike last season I have named no certanties this season and should we

fall below the line it still won''t be a certainty. The only certainty is

that 2 of the 5 will go down (unless this season is unlike all the

others). The third team will most likely come from those 5 but it''s not a

certainty by any means.As you can see, I made no emphatic statement that we would be safe ( I desperately hoped that we would) nor did I claim any certainty over which 3 of the ten teams in trouble would be relegated. I doubt that I could have stated that fact more clearly.The points total forecast was again remarkably prescient. 40 points wasn''t needed, the 4th bottom team would have survived on 34 points and actually 8 teams ended up with under 40 points which was more than I expected.I don''t pretend to be Nostrodamus, Yankee but any fair minded analysis will have to admit that my 12 game theory worked out pretty well again. In point of fact it has never yet been wrong in any Premier League season. Two of the bottom five after 12 games will ALWAYS be relegated. That also means that 3 will escape, unfortunately we weren''t one of them.On the Chris Hughton point, yes I did say early on that he was unlikely to be sacked and that remained my opinion while he was doing just enough. After the WBA game I pointed out that the crowd had finally turned on him and he would not survive it. 24 hrs later he had gone. Once again both pretty accurate assessments of the situation.

[YankeeCanary 0]

 

Fair enough Ricardo. You generally do a very thorough job in your assessments and this minor flaw you have of "highlighting the winner while forgetting the losers" should not be held against you.

 

You asked what I do with my opinion when the evidence changes. Well, actually, I tend to wait until I feel there is enough evidence in and then give my opinion. In my case, this season, I gave my opinion at the 18 game point. I said there was sufficient evidence that  we would get to no more than 34 points before facing the final four matches which, IMO would put us in a very tough spot. I also said that, if the board had another candidate in mind then it would be best for the club to replace Chris Hughton at that point. You can look it up but you probably don''t need to because you have very good recall. If my opinion subsequently turned out to be incorrect I would hold my hands up and admit it. 

[ricardo 8,041]

[quote user="YankeeCanary"]

 

Fair enough Ricardo. You generally do a very thorough job in your assessments and this minor flaw you have of "highlighting the winner while forgetting the losers" should not be held against you.

 

You asked what I do with my opinion when the evidence changes. Well, actually, I tend to wait until I feel there is enough evidence in and then give my opinion. In my case, this season, I gave my opinion at the 18 game point. I said there was sufficient evidence that  we would get to no more than 34 points before facing the final four matches which, IMO would put us in a very tough spot. I also said that, if the board had another candidate in mind then it would be best for the club to replace Chris Hughton at that point. You can look it up but you probably don''t need to because you have very good recall. If my opinion subsequently turned out to be incorrect I would hold my hands up and admit it. 

[/quote]No need to look it up, I accept you made the correct calls based on the evidence available. Everything else is guesswork based on emotion.It''s been a funny old season statistically. Palace, W Ham and Sunderland all put in three, four and five game winning runs when looking nearly dead while we were never able to put back to back wins together. Despite this we were at a point a game average with 6 games to go and that would have been more than enough. Losing 5 of those final 6 was the killer. After the WBA game I knew that we were in miracle territory. Unfortunately miracles can''t be summoned up to order.Next year I will be working on a promotion predictor and am now scanning through the data to see if there is anything that will give an early pointer. Nothing obvious at the moment but I shall keep looking.