Centre back pairings

[baker 0]

Last season we played 10 league games with 3 centre backs and 36 league games with two centre backs. I’ll address the 3 centre back games later but for now lets look at the pairings used in the 4 at the back system. Hanley and Klose played 15 games together – we lost 7 of those games and conceded an average of 1.47 goals/game only keeping two clean sheets.. Zimmermann and Klose played together for 13 games – we lost 4 of those games and only conceded 0.92 goals/game despite allowing 5 goals at Sheffield Wednesday on the last day. We also kept 7 clean sheets! Zimmermann and Hanley played together 5 games; we only lost one of those games but didn’t win any. We conceded an average of 1.2 goals a game. Zimmermann and Franke played 2 games together conceding an average of 2 goals a game and Martin and Franke played away against Millwall; we conceded 4 and the pairing was never seen again.

One of our successful spells was from game 6 to 13. In game 6 we started to use Zimmermann and Klose as the centre back pairing and we weren’t beaten for 8 games conceding only 2 goals. Interestingly Pinto played right back in all those games and Stiepermann played left back in 5 of them- Husband played the other 3. This was also the period when the Tettey and Trybull two holder system was used ( in 5 of those games) to great effect.

Then followed a dour period when we lost 7 of 10 games. Hanley and Klose played together in 7 of the ten games and we lost 5 of them, conceding 11 goals and not keeping a clean sheet.

We experienced another purple patch from games 24 to 38 when we only lost 2 games and only conceded 14 goals in the 15 games. But In 8 of these games we used 5 at the back. (I am not including the Cup games but this period included the Arsenal and Chelsea games in which we also used 5 at the back). Hanley and Klose played together for 4 of the 7 games we played using 4 at the back in this spell – we conceded 7 goals.

Of the 8 games in which we used 3 centrebacks in this period Hanley, Zimmermann and Klose were the 3 center backs every game and we won 3, drew 4 and lost only one conceding 7 goals in the process. Lewis played left wing back in 7 of the games (Husband the other). Reed played right wing back in 5 of them (Pinto the other two). It is interesting that Stiepermann never started a game as a left wing back in this system. Also that Farke used Tettey anchoring the midfield in 7 of the 8 games and always used 3 centre midfielders and two forwards.

So our two successful periods last year either corresponded to using Zimmermann and Klose as a center back pairing or using 3 centre backs. The Hanley/Klose pairing didn’t work well. This season so far they have conceded 8 goals in 3 games seemingly continuing last season’s trend. Here’s the kicker though: the last 5 times Zimmermann and Klose have played together we have conceded 11 goals and lost 4 of the games. And following on that theme in preseason the pairing conceded 3 goals in two games in Germany, so maybe they are not the answer either. The Zimmermann/ Hanley pairing kept two clean sheets in 5 outings (6 goals against) but conceded 4 goals away vs QPR (that game featured Reed and Vrancic in midfield though- and that was by far our worst midfield pairing for goals against).

Perhaps we should go to the 3 centre backs again as both Marshall and Lewis are better suited as wing backs. (Lewis played left back in “a 4” in 12 games last season and we conceded 18 goals for an average of 1.5 goals/game -compare this to when he played in “a 5”; we conceded an average of 0.86 goals a game). Farke would have to use two centre-mids though because I don’t think any of Pukki, Hernandez or Rhodes can be dropped right now. And the squad definitely has not been constructed with a 3 centre back system in mind.

Normally to contend for promotion a team should concede one goal a game or less. That means that we need to concede only 38 goals in the final 43 games. This won’t happen unless we seriously rethink our current centre back pairing and defensive structure. Maybe a defensive pairing of Hanley and Godfrey or Godfrey and Zimmermann might be the answer but I think if we use 4 at the back we need to use more conventional fullbacks like Pinto and Stiepermann ( Stiepermann played 13 games at left fullback last season and we only conceded 13 goals). If we want to play Lewis and Marshall or Passlack we need to use 3 centrebacks in my opinion. Two centre backs plus two smaller wingbacks has obviously been overly aggressive based on results so far this season!

[Bill 1,788]

This would presume that all other variables were equal. They never are.

The opposition is always different.

A lucky goal for or against, a missing striker for us or them could be the difference. As could the make up of both teams.

By all means value the way players perform when in the team, but to try and extrapolate reliable guides simply on results alone is misleading.

[Norfolk Dan 308]

Welcome to the board Baker. I''m more of a reader than a poster on here. So in the grand scheme of this board I congratulate you on posting without random board generated characters, I should also simply state "binner", perhaps ask where ZLF is as he would like your post, also ask if you consider if any of our central defenders have been spotted at Asda or Morrison''s as I''m sure this would impact and override the outcome of any statistical analysis.

Having said that, interesting analysis, but we know they are all good enough on the day, as our us fans, but if we are all honest enough we don''t always perform also, so if we get our house in order, then perhaps we will lead the way. Turn up with heart of sleeve take my seat in the city stand and support them fully without a grumble. Oh... Binner...

[Fuzzar 1,702]

Thanks for taking the time to do that, Baker - there''s a fair bit of work gone into it.

It''s difficult to draw exact conclusions as there are so many variables but Farke struggled to organise us defensively last season and, so far, has struggled this. I really hope he can sort this - we shouldn''t need to score two or three goals to win, or get something, out of a game.

[nutty nigel 7,536]

Good post buddy.

I did a very similar study last season but came to the conclusion that whatever defence we played the deciding factor was Tettey in midfield. And especially when paired with Trybull. Together 8 times they won 7 drew 1 and conceded 2 goals. It''s not really started that way this season.

[Indy 3,300]

Very good post, but the last time we had a really successful pairing we also had a fantastic battling midfielder who bust a gut to cover the field.

It’s not always about just the back four but how that midfielder reads the game and runners.....

Malay, Fleming and Holt, this was the last season where we really looked solid, we could hold our own and confident of nicking 1-0 or 2-1 wins.

Great partnership.

[Indy 3,300]

Malky.....