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The Engineer

Strength of remaining fixture list

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Very interesting to see the strengths of the remaining fixtures for the top 8 (maybe ignorantly giving Barnsley the chop)!

Based upon how many games each team has left and the position each team they face are currently in the table, the average position of opponents for the top 8 are as follows:

Newcastle: 10.6

Brighton: 14.4

Huddersfield: 12.4

Reading: 12.6

Leeds: 11.1

Sheffield Wednesday: 11.6

Norwich: 10.5

Fulham: 12.5

So Brighton are going to win the league! Fulham are dangerous to lookout for a late playoff surge (9 points behind Leeds with 2 games in hand and a game against them!) We officially are doomed with the hardest set of fixtures left to play - or we can do the opposite and upset the odds in spectacular fashion!

Interestingly Newcastle play 4 out of the top 8 in their next 5 games (3 of which are away games in a row). Reading playing 5 out of top 8 in next 7 games and then have an ''easy'' 5 games after their home game against us.

Newcastle, Reading, Leeds and Norwich have 6 games left against the top 8. Sheffield Wednesday and Fulham have 5. Brighton & Huddersfield have 4.

If Huddersfield win they''re game in hand on Newcastle they are only 5 points off them, and with Newcastles difficult run of away games coming up could we see Huddersfield replace them in the top two? I would not be surprised.

In terms of average points needed per game o guarantee a play-off spot, basing the points required at 73.5 derived from average 6th place points from the previous 21 seasons where the current league format has applied then the top 8 teams need the following points per game to achieve a play-off spot.

Newcastle: 0.32 points per game

Brighton: 0.39

Huddersfield: 0.83

Reading: 0.96

Leeds: 1.19

Sheffield Wednesday: 1.11

Norwich: 1.73

Fulham: 1.63

WOW! Not only do Norwich have the hardest remaining fixture list, we also have the highest points per games required!

Time to get behind the boys as they are going to need every ounce of support they can get to give them this massive push required up the table!

Note: I have not taken into account whether he fixtures are home or away in determining the ''strength of schedule''

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No edit button? What gives?

Should say ''Reading''s AWAY game against us...''

and noticed a HUUUUGE grammatical error... it should read ''If Huddersfield win THEIR game in hand...''

Time for a coffee I think!

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Interesting, but I think where we end up is more about us that who we''re playing.  We need to produce the form we are capable of against the better teams at home and also produce some decent away form (against anyone).  Sadly I don''t see either happening any time soon.  So my expectation is that we''ll miss the playoffs by a comfortable margin.

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A good piece of research OP. I looked on a predictor site (you can choose any league and tick just the teams you select)...its called the fishy.co.uk and its been around for years ( the BBC site used to have a forward predictor) and Brighton came top and Huddersfield 2nd, Fulham also in there. We came 8th.

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Cheers Buh, got absolutely nothing to do with my profession or degree ;)

If I was a neutral, logically I think I would predict the following order:






Sheffield Wednesday



However as a Norwich fan I believe (more hope) we''ll finish 5th or 6th!

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If we won all are remaining home games and drew all our remaining away games we would finish on 78 points which would be enough for top 6.

Won''t happen mind you. Just just shows you how damaging that bad run really was.

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