Norwich's Survival Chances - A Clinical Analysis

[TheMarshmallowMan 0]

I think we all know that the Premier League is a different kettle of fish than the first division, and that the next season, the team (and us!) will have to work our socks off to see us survive our first foray into the top flight for nine years.

But I, for one, think we can do it. Here''s why - in great great detail :)

I should warn you, this could be long. If you don''t like long posts, click back now.

So what do we have to do to survive? Technically, we need to be better than three other teams in the Premiership. But few believe we have the capability of doing that. William Hill, for example, place us at 7/4 favourites (according to an article in the Guardian) to come back down to the 1st Division. However, this is before Crystal Palace ensured their entrance into the Premiership.

Is it really that unlikely we can do it? I don''t think so - I don''t think so at all.

Let''s look at what Norwich have got:

Worthy: Nigel is undoubtably one of the best managers in the Country. An eye for excellent talent, Worthy has signed some fantastic gems on a shoestring budget (such as Huckerby, Crouch - on loan, Drury, Edworthy, Cooper - on loan, Harper - on loan, Svennson, Mckenzie etc) and brought out the talent in others (Green comes to mind). It will be interesting to see how he copes locking horns with the cream, like Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger. But I certinatly think Worthy''s up to it, and will show just what a talented manager the guy is.

A Talented Squad: It''s been said before that Norwich play Premiership football. Yes, it''s true, we don''t always play to Premiership quality, but our passing game is similar to that of a top Premiership squad. Now, if Worthy''s as shrewd a tactical operator as I think he is, and adds to that squad in a way which will compliment that passing game, we could be looking at getting some shock results.

The Element of Suprise: We''ve changed alot since our relegation in 1995. We are now a fantastic team, with talented players across the board. Ipswich - when they were promoted - managed to climb to third place simply because clubs didn''t know how to take them. I''m sure that same element of suprise will aid us no end.

A Passionate Board: We are one of the lucky few who have a board not interested in squeezing money out, like Man Utd directors. We have a board that love our club and want to see it do well, in any way we can. We should be grateful to Delia and Co (I sure am!). Surely they will do everything in their power to ensure the best for the club.

High Morale: It''s amazing what good morale can do for a club. Having just won our first league in ages, and promoted back to the Premiership, the feeling around Carrow Road is quite different to past seasons. We''ve done ourselves proud, and we go into the Premiership as Champions.

And finally - a Great Support Base!: How many clubs do you know with such a fantastic support base? We are a friendly lot (to anyone except Wolves, Ipswich and WBA supporters!) who are prepared to sing our boys on til we''re all blue in the face. The fans can make a great difference in the performance, and I fully believe we should sing - this season - like we''ve never sung before.

But this sense of confidence doesn''t just come from Norwich. The teams in the Premiership this year are debatably wobbly, with it ending up quite tight at the bottom. Here''s the bottom six:

Pos Name Pld GD PTS
15 Blackburn 38 -8 44
16 Man City 38 1 41
17 Everton 38 -12 39
18 Leicester City 38 -17 33 *
19 Leeds United 38 -39 33 *
20 Wolves 38 -39 33 *
(* = Relegated)

So, let''s think about this. Of those six, Wolves, Leicester and Leeds have been replaced with WBA, Palace, and us. I don''t see any reason why we can''t beat these teams. Let me elaborate.

Blackburn: A club of old has beens, Blackburn are an o

[DumbleDelia is Magic 0]

Great post Andrew. Very in depth! We just have to hope that one of the Premiership regulars (Man City, Blackburn, Bolton, Everton etc) do a Leeds and have a shocking season. If we then hope that we can finish above at least one of West Brom and Palace there''s only one more spot to avoid. We''ll be fine!

[FatMan Fat 0]

I have already placed my bet that we will stay up

[YankeeCanary 0]

Andrew, I like long posts and would like to see you write more frequently. However, your content on this occasion is hardly clinical analysis. It is viewed far too much through rose-cloured glasses for that. We all hope Norwich stays up but let us not minimize the task. Other teams ( including West Brom ) have already been active in the acquisition area. We have yet to show our hand on that front. Further, it is unwise to assume what points we will yield out of games against teams like WBA and Palace. Is my memory faulty, or did we not only take 4 out of 12 this past season against them?

[NavMan 0]

A good post but I still believe it will all depend on whom Worthy signs to bolster the squad. A lot has been said on team spirit but that apart will not keep us in the Premiership. It is all well and good having an excellent team spirit when you are top of the first division but having it when in the bottom three of the Premiership is a different matter. All the team spirit in the world will not be enough to keep us there. Quality is what goes a long way to helping sustain life in the top flight. This has been said time and time again by people whom have been in the game a long while and even the most ardent City fan has to admit to requiring what Worthy has said 5 or 6 new signings of quality to help to bolster the squad. I know people have stated that people like Malky could not cope with Henry, Nistelrooy etc but in my book we have not got to worry about those type of players because they could skin the fastest of defenders anyway however, even in the lower regions of the Premiership those teams still have quality forwards and we need to be at our best at all times in order to pick up points off these teams. Look at Leeds who got relegated with Smith and Viduka up front (granted the rest of the team did not help their cause).

In order to achieve the 45 points required to stay in the top league we will need to basically win 15 of the 38 games we play. Of course it is not as cut and dried as this as there are going to be games we play when we should expect to win and dont. There again there will no doubt be the games we expect to lose and pick up a point and maybe even win so there is no way that anybody could pick out games as certainties for defeat draw or win as the nature of the game does not allow this. The point of this is that we will therefore have to wait and see but I am praying for a good start as anything other than this can make it very hard. Also praying for a couple of lower teams in the first five games. The last thing we need is Arsenal Man U Liverpool and Chelsea in our first few games. Most of all I am hoping to hear very soon of some quality signings by Worthy cos at the moment it seems that every man and his dog is making signings except us.

[DumbleDelia is Magic 0]

Yankee, I truely and honestly believe you should stop reading and enjoying long posts and get a more balanced life over there in the US. Somebody gave me that advice once!

[TheMarshmallowMan 0]

YankeeCanary - Thank you for your reply! One of the reasons I made this post was to be challenged on my ideas.

As you said, we have yet to acquire any new acquisitions on this front. But consider for a second - we have a chance here to once again make ourselves a regular fixture in the Premiership. I would rather Worthy bide his time, seeing the options he was presenting with, than make a load of "rush buys" - which Megson seems to be doing.

Worthy is a shrewd operator of the transfer market - that can be seen by the transfers he''s made since becoming manager. In fact, he has such a good eye, it makes you wonder what - if any - role he played when he was Bryan Hamilton''s Assistant Manager.

And remember; the season''s only been over a week! There is still plenty of time for transfers to be made.

Also, I don''t assume what points we shall take from teams like Palace and WBA - I stated we should aim to take those points. If we are to realistically stay in the Premiership then these are the teams we should aim to take these sort of points from.

Finally - rose tinted? Maybe! Only next season will tell us!

Thanks for your reply.

[YankeeCanary 0]

DD, I believe my point about you is valid. Apparently, you are a young man with a full schedule on many other fronts and yet you write five posts for every one I submit, and I''m retired. You and I have been using this message board for approximately the same time. You are posting an average of seven posts per day every single day. This darling girl of yours must be very understanding...make sure you don''t take your eye off the ball.

[Adam 0]

To go along with the current Premiership teams you''ve mentioned as to who may struggle, enter Portsmouth, Fulham and Charlton. I can see all 3 struggling next season, unless they strengthen their squads. But I wouldn''t take Blackburn lightly, as they''ll have Barry Ferguson and David Thompson back fully fit, two quality midfielders. But the others are all very beatable sides.

[NavMan 0]

Yes but wont all those sides say exactly the same about us. That is what I meant earlier when I said all we can do is pray and see what happens. Norwich will also be one of those teams that other teams will look at and say that we are a team whom they should be taking points off. Its all cat and mouse and at the end of the day they will see us as prey just as much as we will see them and it all depends who can show the quality on the day.

[TheMarshmallowMan 0]

Adam: Portsmouth are another of those Premiership sides that I think could go either way, depending on their summer activity. I think should Harry leave, then they could struggle - in a big way.

However, they do have some good players. Yakubu is one of the better Premiership strikers around, and Berger is still capable of a few inspired moments.

Fulham are a team who have suffered greatly because of the loss of Saha - they really do lack a certain presence up front. Some suggest that Boa Morte more than makes up the loss of the big man - but I don''t think he does.

Looking over their squad, it''s difficult to see another name who could influence Fulham to make any real impact in the coming season.

Charlton however, I have to disagree with. They seem to be one of the few teams that act as a unit, and Curbishley is a fantastic manager - a future England manager, in my opinion. They might not have any "big names", but that could change with the £12million budget Curbs has supposedly been given.

Thanks for your post!

[TheMarshmallowMan 0]

NavMan: Very true! What it comes down to is those 90 minutes on the pitch. Even Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea have their slip ups, and loose to teams they shouldn''t.

What I''m saying, though, is that Norwich shouldn''t be written off so quickly. We are a fresh team with a fresh style of play - why shouldn''t we have the chance to do well?

Thanks for your post!

[Arganth 0]

I would add Tottenham to your list Andrew. Most definitely a club on the decline. There''s nothing suggesting that clubs like Bolton and Middlesborough won''t struggle either, and maybe even Birmingham.

[TheMarshmallowMan 0]

Scott: Spurs are always a club who are hard to predict. One year they can do poorly, the next quite well. I do agree, however, that we could certinatly challenge them.

Bolton I think are quite a good club, and have quite a bit of money in order to improve. I think the chances of them struggling are quite low.

The Boro are another club who are hard to predict. A few bad results could see them under us, however I do think Boro will do okay for themselves.

Thanks for your post!