Moneyball

[The Great Mass Debater 1,202]

All clubs to some extent recruit on data, but how much do we use 'moneyball' to recruit?

 

 

The darlings of moneyball in England are of course Brentford, bringing the FC Midtjylland approach to English football. But are we doing this too? 

 

 

 

How much do we recruit players based on their stats (running stats in the case of Sargent - mentioned on another thread) and how much do we still use traditonal scouting with scout opinion and gut feeling still relied upon?

Emi we recruited and sold on very effectively. Tzolis is expected to do the same. But how did we identify these players?

[king canary 8,763]

5 minutes ago, The Great Mass Debater said:

All clubs to some extent recruit on data, but how much do we use 'moneyball' to recruit?

 

 

The darlings of moneyball in England are of course Brentford, bringing the FC Midtjylland approach to English football. But are we doing this too? 

 

 

 

How much do we recruit players based on their stats (running stats in the case of Sargent - mentioned on another thread) and how much do we still use traditonal scouting with scout opinion and gut feeling still relied upon?

Emi we recruited and sold on very effectively. Tzolis is expected to do the same. But how did we identify these players?

My understanding is we aren't as data driven as Brentford- stats are used to identify players who are worth looking at in more depth but we won't sign a player just on stats and data.

The best example of it working well is Emi Buendia- identified because of his expected passing stats being a big outlier at his level. Based on that the scouting team decided he was worth going to have a look at in more depth with a more traditional scouting approach.

[keelansgrandad 6,680]

Arsenal were data driven in the 70's. Don Howe used to work out what was effective against what team. And the longer "pass" was deemed more successful That is how they got the tag "boring".

Wimbledon copied it under Bobby Gould and used it to some success. But everyone hated their brutality.

But I do find all the modern data used should be helpful but not adhered to. There is much of stats that can help players obviously such a penalty takers etc. But I cannot see that copying the NFL has any place in the real game.

Surely, a knowledgeable scout is worth more that data?

[The Great Mass Debater 1,202]

 

6 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Surely, a knowledgeable scout is worth more that data?

 

The problem is bias. A scout introduces it. The stats seek to remove it. Anyone can look at stats, the trick is having someone who can identify relevent stats - to take the baseball example, bases taken, a stat noone else gave value to, but Beane did.

A scout will be influenced by being human, taken by something flashy, influenced by physique, swayed by the recency effect. Contextualised and overvalued by their own experience.

 

Stats of course will not tell the story of things like character, personality traits etc. And you could have the best players in the world yet have a manager who doesnt know how to use them. But in terms of recruitment, its how you find a player like Kante, dismissed because of his size. 

The modern acquisition of stats has made this all possible, of course until recently, none of this data was recorded. Its very exciting for a club like Brentford, or indeed a Norwich, who cannot afford to buy over-valued players and needs to sell on for a profit.

 

In terms of youth players, precocious physical developers were previously over-valued. Look at Carlton Morris, physically able to play men's football at 17. But ultimately, season by season, that advantage gets eroded as their contempories catch up - look at the dfference between Todd Cantwell breakthrough season and his physique a year later. Often scouts were told to look at the parents physically rather than the player on the pitch to know their true potential value in the adult game. So a good idea, if you have a budding footballer in the family, attend with a massive friend and pass them off as their parent to fool the scouts!