Top 6 Run In!

[CaptnCanary 0]

Whilst I appreciate the sentiment of what you are getting at, you are completely wrong to say that it is impossible to identify the most difficult fixtures. Statistics are obviously useful in this. Otherwise you could just back the outsider in every game and be a very rich man whilst Mr.Ladbrokes would just be Mr.broke
Past results and current form obviously give an ''indication'' as to the likely outcomes of future games.

[nutty nigel 7,618]

''fraid not Captn. Otherwise we''d win the Free Bet every week. I have said elsewhere, we were relegated two seasons ago whilst Wolves and Brum won automatic promotion. Neither of them beat us home or away and would probably class the games against us as two of their most difficult fixtures.

 

[CaptnCanary 0]

What do you mean ''fraid not''? Its obvious - like I said, if you disagree, just bet on every outsider of every game and become a rich man!!! Anybody with half a bit of sense can see that bookies odds reflect likely outcomes. Thats the whole point of them setting odds and its how they build in their profit margin.

Your example has little relevance. We can take Man U vs Blackpool as an example if you like. Despite Blackpool winning that recent game, everybody knows that if they played that game 100 times, Blackpool might be lucky to win 10. Its also obvious that Man U is likely to be their hardest fixture given performances over the last 10 or 20 years. That history and statistics clearly gives an indication of likely future results between the 2 sides and it is no different when looking at other teams playing each other - its just that the odds are generally closer as there is less difference in ability between most other teams. Or are you trying to tell me that each time Man U play Blackpool, the outcome is 50/50? If so I''ll take your even money odds on Man U every time!

[nutty nigel 7,618]

Not so obvious as you can make money. Otherwise you could back the shortest priced 10 homes across the world every weekend and make a profit.

 

Why would I bet on an outsider every week to make a profit? The big bookies have proffessional odds compilers and here''s the thing Captn.... Top v bottom in the Champs would never be particularly short. Top v bottom in the Champs would be probably half the odds of the top v bottom in other leagues across the world. Why do you think this is?

 

If you want to beat the bookie you will need to know more than their odds compilers. You need to find out information and use it to your advantage.

 

 

 

[CaptnCanary 0]

The reason I suggested you bet on outsiders is because, if the odds mean nothing as you imply, then that will yield you your biggest profit. I know that its virtually impossible to make long term profit by betting on football so clearly the odds do have some statistical basis and merit. I also know that teams in the championship are quite evenly matched. I used the Man U vs Blackpool example as one that is relatively extreme and is obvious to all. But the same rules are true and correct for any team comparison, including championship teams, its just that they are more closely matched and so less obvious without a detailed analysis. But the fact remains that there are differences and that stats can therefore be used to give an ''indication'' of the most likely outcomes. The real outcomes may very well be different but its the best tool we have at our disposal at this time of the season when people are fretting about what is going to happen.

[nutty nigel 7,618]

Fair enough Captn. The top 6 run in is listed earlier in the thread. Why don''t you predict the outcome based on the likely bookies odds and post your findings on here.

 

Last weekend I got 5/4 QPR, 17/20 Portsmouth, 4/6 Burnley and 8/15 Norwich. Thought I had an edge because top of the league against a side outside the top six was odds against. Which one let me down? 

 

 

[Tangible Fixed Assets anyone? 0]

[quote user="ncfcrooferman"]the run is not that bad on paper although having to play 5 of the top 8 teams so i would not rule them out yet as well .......[/quote]

eh?

Presumably you mean their (Burnley) run is not bad on paper then you say they have to play 5 of the top 8. Which surely means their run is difficult.

I am confused by what you are trying to tell the reader.