Top 6 Run In!

[Weve (no longer) Got Angus 0]

QPR 67 PTS	SWANSEA 62 PTS	CARDIFF 61 PTS	NOTTM FOREST 59 PTS	NORWICH 59 PTS	LEEDS 54 PTS
LEICESTER (H)	SCUNTHORPE (A)	IPSWICH (H)	HULL (H)	PRESTON (H)	DONCASTER (H)
MILLWALL (A)	WATFORD (H)	PALACE (A)	SHEFF UTD (A)	LEICESTER (A)	PRESTON (A)
PALACE (H)	DERBY (A)	BARNSLEY (H)	DONCASTER (H)	BRISTOL CITY (H)	IPSWICH (H)
DONCASTER (A)	NOTTM FOREST (H)	MILLWALL (A)	SWANSEA (A)	HULL (A)	SHEFF UTD (A)
SHEFF UTD (H)	PRESTON (A)	DERBY (H)	LEEDS (A)	SCUNTHORPE (H)	NOTTM FOREST (H)
SCUNTHORPE (A)	NORWICH (H)	DONCASTER (A)	READING (H)	SWANSEA (A)	MILLWALL (A)
BARNSLEY (A)	HULL (H)	SHEFF UTD (A)	BURNLEY (H)	WATFORD (A)	DERBY (A)
DERBY (H)	BURNLEY (A)	PORTSMOUTH (H)	NORWICH (A)	NOTTM FOREST (H)	WATFORD (H)
CARDIFF (A)	PORTSMOUTH (A)	QPR (H)	LEICESTER (H)	IPSWICH (A)	READING (H)
HULL (H)	IPSWICH (H)	PRESTON (A)	BRISTOL CITY (A)	DERBY (H)	PALACE (A)
WATFORD (A)	MILLWALL (A)	MIDDLESBORO (H)	SCUNTHORPE (H)	PORTSMOUTH (A)	BURNLEY (H)
LEEDS (H) Apologies for any rubbish that has been posted along with the table!!	SHEFF UTD (H)	BURNLEY (A) Any thoughts on the run ins for different teams??	PALACE (A)	COVENTRY (H)	QPR (A)

[Lincs CR 0]

Swansea, Leeds, Reading, Burnley, Norwich, Leicester... that''s a nasty run of games for Forest! Based on the remaining fixtures you''d have to say Cardiff are probably, on paper, favorites to take second place but we all know absolutely anything is possible in this division.

Forest or Leeds to miss out on the top 6 with Leicester stealing in to take the place ;)

[peter-plastic 0]

I am just a bit of a worrier, but QPR do seem to have a fairly easy run of games after this saturday''s fixture with Leicester. It makes me think that they could have promotion all but sewn up by the time they go to Cardiff, and certainly by the the time they entertain Leeds on the last day. They just maybe not as focussed in those games if they have less to play for. Anyway "football matches aren''t decided on paper", I''m hoping things won''t be as predictable.

Nice clear table of the fixtures, Jet Heeled. Cheers

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

In all Probability its all about the playoffs, then it would be a cup competition which we are not very good at.

It would need a Chelsea style decline for QPR to miss out on automatic and i cannot see it happening. Swansea are the real form team for me at the moment and i think it will be between them and cardiff for the second slot. Leeds seem to have the easiest run in but they are 5 points behind and Forrest do have on paper a very hard one and they have gone really off the boil. I would see Leeds Leicester and Forrest fighting it out for the last two play off places with Norwich finishing 4th

[ncfcrooferman 0]

no ones is talking about Burnley if they win the 2 games in hand will be within a point of us and a equal if not better goal difference the run is not that bad on paper although having to play 5 of the top 8 teams so i would not rule them out yet as well .......

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

I agreeBurnley cannot be discounted although i would prefer to have points on the board. I do not know what their full fixtures are but know they have to play Cardiff, Swansea, Forrest and Leeds

[Pinks 0]

Teams like Watford, Hull, Burnley and Portsmouth are going to have a say in this too. Swansea and Cardiff have to play most of them. Nice to see Towen have to play 4 out of the top six in their remaining fixtures. Lets hope that the Jewell effect is over and they take another dive.

There are too many variables to predict it at the moment. For me Swansea and Cardiff are looking good. QPR have the title. Hopefully we have had our sticky patch. Leeds, definitely and Forest maybe are having a wobble. Burnley and the Foxes are creeping although Leicester have had a couple of indifferent results.

My prediction.

QPR

CARDIFF

SWANSEA

NORWICH

FOREST

BURNLEY

BURNLEY V NORWICH PLAY OFF FINAL

NORWICH to win 37 - 0 with Holt scoring 36 goals in injury time.

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

Further to last post i see Burnley also have Ipswich, Hull, Leicester and Portsmouth. Add those to Leeds, Swansea,Cardiff and Forrest and they look to have the worst run in of anyone

[pete 371]

Forest are in a terrible run, Billy Davies is appealing to the Forest Board for loanees to beef up his threadbare squad, if Earnshaw gets injured Forest will be very short of options.  But City in same boat if Grant not available.

[paul moy 235]

I still believe that QPR could hit a blip. They have Leicester followed by derby games at Millwall and then at home to Palace, all of which are tough. Then they have Doncaster away who have hit some form.  The wheels can still come off IMO.  

[Paul 0]

[quote user="ncfcrooferman"]no ones is talking about Burnley if they win the 2 games in hand will be within a point of us and a equal if not better goal difference the run is not that bad on paper although having to play 5 of the top 8 teams so i would not rule them out yet as well .......[/quote]

No they wouldn''t they would be 3 points behind us, we have 59 and they have 50 with 2 games in hand

[paul moy 235]

[quote user="paul moy"]I still believe that QPR could hit a blip. They have Leicester followed by derby games at Millwall and then at home to Palace, all of which are tough. Then they have Doncaster away who have hit some form.  The wheels can still come off IMO.  [/quote]

I would also add that if we won our next four and QPR drew theirs, then we would be level on points with them on 71. A tall order indeed, but not outside the realms of possibility.

[Power Hamster 0]

[quote user="WEEN_NASTY"]Teams like Watford, Hull, Burnley and Portsmouth are going to have a say in this too. Swansea and Cardiff have to play most of them. Nice to see Towen have to play 4 out of the top six in their remaining fixtures. Lets hope that the Jewell effect is over and they take another dive.

There are too many variables to predict it at the moment. For me Swansea and Cardiff are looking good. QPR have the title. Hopefully we have had our sticky patch. Leeds, definitely and Forest maybe are having a wobble. Burnley and the Foxes are creeping although Leicester have had a couple of indifferent results.

My prediction.

QPR

CARDIFF

SWANSEA

NORWICH

FOREST

BURNLEY

BURNLEY V NORWICH PLAY OFF FINAL

NORWICH to win 37 - 0 with Holt scoring 36 goals in injury time.[/quote]37-0?? Don''t be daft, can you really see us keeping a clean sheet?

[Joanna Grey 0]

Wake me up when we have just 3 games to go.

[Since 1980 27]

Raymond, well said. :)

[Gingerpele 0]

Ween, are you really suggesting you would rather Ipswich have a bad run, than take 3 points off the teams we are competing with?

I would be more than happy if they lose the other 9 games they play, but would rather they won the 4 against the top teams.....

[Graham Humphrey 13]

[quote user="ncfcrooferman"]no ones is talking about Burnley if they win the 2 games in hand will be within a point of us and a equal if not better goal difference the run is not that bad on paper although having to play 5 of the top 8 teams so i would not rule them out yet as well .......[/quote]Well if they played and won both of their games in hand before Saturday then that would be correct (apart from your maths of course).  But we have three rounds of matches before their first game in hand so it''s a bit premature to be worrying about that.  People got worked up about Forest''s games in hand too.

[Pinks 0]

Is there any way of working it so they win without getting three points?

[CaptnCanary 0]

Anybody fancy adding up the current league positions of the opponents left for each teams run in? It might give an interesting rough indicator as to who has the hardest and easiest fixtures, i.e. the highest total will be easiest and lowest total hardest.

[Beetley Yellow 57]

Ok Captn, I''ve done the exercise (I''m a recently-made redundant QS, with nothing better to do…). Allocating the current table position number against each opponent gives us:-

Cardiff: 184 / QPR: 165 / Swansea: 164 / Leeds: 164 / Us: 161 / Forest: 146

 

Confirming that on paper Cardiff have the easiest / Forest the hardest run-in. Re-running it with the Current Form (last 6 games) Table we get:

Leeds: 186 / QPR: 173 / Cardiff: 168 / Swansea: 166 / Us: 147 / Forest: 133

 

So Leeds have a run-in against the poorest-form teams and looking at it only have to meet 1 team from the top ten in their next 8 games.  Forest have 5 top teams in their next 8 games, Cardiff have none.

 

Our Home run-in is on paper the easiest (.....why does that worry me [:O] ?), but our biggest problem is our Away run-in, which is by far the hardest of all 6 teams. Our next 3 away games are against top 10 teams all in very good form. Plus Swansea and Leicester have the 3rd and 4th best home records in the division.  Lambo needs to carry on working the away-day magic.

 

[Muddy funster 0]

Without being funny, I''d far rather our tougher games be away from home. All of the pressure on the home team and our away form better than our home form. Bring on the big boys!!!

[Beetley Yellow 57]

Taking it a step further (a bit sad I know [:$] )- looking at historical stats since 92/93, 74 points (76 to be sure) ought to be enough for the playoffs. So we need 15-17 points from the last 12 games.

 

Automatic promotion is more difficult to assess, with a spread of 79 to 92 points taking second place. However in the seasons where 2nd to 5th is tight (as per this season) most seasons have seen 2nd place finishing on between 79 to 83 points. So it''s 7 or 8 wins to be in with a real shout of Auto Promo.

 

I''m sure PL will have the team ''taking it one game at a time'' and rightfully so, but it''s nice to dream what might be possible [:)]

[slater 0]

Molte grazie signor Tifoso di Dereham. Molto interessante...

[CaptnCanary 0]

Good stats Dereham Tifosi. Its quite a concern to see that either way we look at it, we have one of the hardest run-ins. Shame there is not some way to account for bottom clubs fighting harder for points at this stage of the season. Is there any historical data anywhere that says whether bottom teams fighting for their lives actually out-perform their previous results or is that just a myth that we tend to believe is true?

Anyway, if you are really bored, maybe you would like to update your stats every couple of games or so and maybe try to forecast finishing positions based on those stats?

Cheers

[paul moy 235]

[quote user="CaptnCanary"]Anybody fancy adding up the current league positions of the opponents left for each teams run in? It might give an interesting rough indicator as to who has the hardest and easiest fixtures, i.e. the highest total will be easiest and lowest total hardest.[/quote]

 

Well, those Preston and Doncaster games sure were easy fixtures for us.... and of course Swansea away at Scunthorpe.... LOL

 

[CaptnCanary 0]

[quote user="paul moy"]

[quote user="CaptnCanary"]Anybody fancy adding up the current league positions of the opponents left for each teams run in? It might give an interesting rough indicator as to who has the hardest and easiest fixtures, i.e. the highest total will be easiest and lowest total hardest.[/quote]

 

Well, those Preston and Doncaster games sure were easy fixtures for us.... and of course Swansea away at Scunthorpe.... LOL

 

[/quote]

That''s why you never see a Bookie on a bike! But also why it was clever of Dereham Tifosi to do a 2nd table based on recent form. These stats should give a ''rough indicator'' as to how hard the run in is on paper but nobody said it was going to give an accurate prediction that you can bet your house on. That''s also part of the reason as to why I just asked if anybody has statistics to show whether relegation threatened teams achieve better results towards the end of the season. If that was true then the easiest run-in would probably be against mid-table placed teams.

[paul moy 235]

[quote user="CaptnCanary"][quote user="paul moy"]

[quote user="CaptnCanary"]Anybody fancy adding up the current league positions of the opponents left for each teams run in? It might give an interesting rough indicator as to who has the hardest and easiest fixtures, i.e. the highest total will be easiest and lowest total hardest.[/quote]

 

Well, those Preston and Doncaster games sure were easy fixtures for us.... and of course Swansea away at Scunthorpe.... LOL

 

[/quote]

That''s why you never see a Bookie on a bike! But also why it was clever of Dereham Tifosi to do a 2nd table based on recent form. These stats should give a ''rough indicator'' as to how hard the run in is on paper but nobody said it was going to give an accurate prediction that you can bet your house on. That''s also part of the reason as to why I just asked if anybody has statistics to show whether relegation threatened teams achieve better results towards the end of the season. If that was true then the easiest run-in would probably be against mid-table placed teams.

[/quote]

I actually made the point last week that surely it is an easier game if you have a mid-placed team with little to play for rahter than a desperate team near the bottom . I got shot down in flames though......

 

 

[CaptnCanary 0]

Hmm, well I think you probably have a point - we really need a good stato though who can prove it one way or the other for us.

[nutty nigel 7,902]

Here''s a thought.......

 

Forest''s last 6 games

Scunthorpe (Away)

Cardiff (Home)

Preston (Home)

Millwall (Away)

Middlesborough (Away)

Hull (Home)

 

Easy or hard? On paper which was the most difficult game?

 

It was certainly tales of the unexpected because they only won the Cardiff game and picked up just 6 points from the 18 available.

Predicting what will happen over the next 11 games I would say is impossible. And equally impossible to identify the most difficult fixtures.

 

 

 

 

[Bomber 57]

To be honest I would rather have top teams to play than the easier lower teams as we all know how we cope against these - Leeds are a threat as they have a lot of the easier teams to play and we all know how they despatched Doncaster 5-2 at the weekend so maybe they can adapt at playing those sort of teams better than we can.  Tomorro''w game is a real tester I believe on how the rest of the season will pan out for us - buckle and I think top 6 at best however win the game and it is game on again for top two